Right now, almost all of the votes yet to count are mail in or provisional or same day drop off. Meaning they favor Biden.

how does Biden win NE-2 and the Republican wins the district? seems like a weird ticket split.

Thanks. Almost immediately after I just saw this posted:

"The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern."

Even this guy would seem to agree...

After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI, @realDonaldTrump numbers went up by 131.

As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020 https://t.co/CEr82eiCWH

— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) November 4, 2020

In a recount could they challenge which ballots are counted or file injunctions to get certain ballots thrown out? I mean even that doesn't really sound realistic to get 20k thrown out unless they have a certain category in mind, which I'm not sure I've seen mentioned for WI.

I mean there has to be some endgame here right... asking for the recount and losing surely delegitimizes the "I was winning and then things got shady" argument?

Does anyone have any good Georgia sites or updates?

I feel like I have the midwest and southwest covered between a few twitter accounts, but it seems like Georgia is stuck.

NBC giving Wisconsin to Biden now

I have not followed the thread here or checked news sites, so I am curoius about one thing-Did any of the state legislatures that pundits felt had a good chance to flip to D actually flip?

But that is the thing. What the two presidential election cycles have proven is that for whites that is not a problem. I would argue the same for blacks if there wasn't a consistent pay gap. People are not necessarily trying to get paid like the wealthy, they are trying to make sure they get paid a wage commiserate with their qualifications, quality of work and in line with their co-workers in some order. If that happens and Jeff Bezos makes another $3 billion, I doubt you hear too many real complaints. That is in everyone's own self interest regardless of race. The problem arise when I don't get paid not when Bezos gets paid.

The Trump campaign is suing to stop the counting in Michigan. They really should have gotten out in front of this and sued to stop Michigan from voting in the first place.

Stop counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania! But keep counting in Nevada and Arizona!

LOL, seriously

I can't find the article but I think the answer is a resounding "no".

Also House is already -5 dems, they can only lose 8 more seats and have a majority I believe. And a tight majority isn't great when 5 or more house members always seem to disappear mid cycle.

Don't know how practical, but I'm okay doing a recount for all states that Trump & Biden want to do a recount for. I can easily believe there were small-med irregularities but not necessarily enough to change the results.

Some may view it as a waste of money, but let's go through the process with the necessary legal/political hacks, identify any issues or discrepancies, and ultimately have SCOTUS resolve them before inauguration day.

Thanks Steve, how disappointing

SI

I'm ok with making sure it's right.

There's the added bonus that Trump will have resources tied up with the recount that can't be deployed doing other stupid crap.

SI

I think we can all agree this is/was an exciting election.

Fantastic entertainment with emotions & hopes up-down-up-down-rinse & repeat.

Same here and as long as it follows that laws set in place. I know in some states it has to be 1% or less before a candidate can ask for a recount. But, asking for a recount just because the candidate is losing, that's a whole other ball of wax, but, also is one of the reasons repubs rushed through another supreme court justice if it gets that far.

One of the sports books I've been keeping an eye on, Bookmaker, now has Pennsylvania at Biden -205, Trump +158, which would work out to 63% in favor of Biden.

I think it's partly appeasing Trump and partly dragging things out as much as possible. They're also suing to stop vote counting in Michigan. Right now their best hope is some weird-ish numbers coming in from the remaining Arizona ballots. Hopefully their scheduled update at 9pm est makes it at least mathematically unlikely.

Nate Cohn at NYTimes also thinks Pennsylvania is going to swing for Biden.

Ralston has been a great follow over the last 12ish hours

SI

With so much at stake, I'm not really interested in "exciting" I prefer to save that for sports and other "frivolous" pursuits.

SI

I have way too much caffeine in me right now trying to stay up to work.

Nate Cohn had a tweet saying that those ballots being pro-Trump enough is possible, but mainly b/c we just haven't seen what "late earlies" from Maracopa look like. So you hesitate to make a prediction based on something unknown.

He said that the most likely result "by far" (his words) are that they will not be pro-Trump enough to make a difference.

Biden is up by 3mil in the national popular vote. He'll likely end up 4-5mil up.

Whether it's 4 months or 4 years from now, I can't wait for politics to be boring again.

I completely disagree unless everyone including voters and the USPS get a redo. The issues that we have now were identified months ago and both parties chose not to do anything about it. In what be the slogan for the election.

This is who we are.

Speaking of Twitter follows, etc - what tabs does everyone have open right now?

2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage | FiveThirtyEight Five Thirty Eight's election coverage - for general returns and news
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn, NYTimes - for general returns news
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...president.html NYTimes - for their accursed needle to get a handle on GA, NC
https://twitter.com/lennybronner Lenny Bronner, WaPo - for their data models
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports Jon Ralston, The Nevada Independent - for NV
https://twitter.com/johnkruzel John Kruzel, The Hill - for legal stuff
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta Tim Alberta, Politico - news updates, lots of good retweets, and some snark

SI

I generally look at Nate Cohn, Nate Silver with a little glances at Tim Alberta and Jon Ralston.

ABC took AZ out of the likely Biden column. I've been hearing it's not a done deal.

Somehow we all missed the news that Kanye West has admitted defeat.


But he is running in 2024!

Cohn is also bullish on Biden coming out ahead in PA

Georgia now down to a 78k difference... still showing 93% of the state counted with blue urban counties (Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton, Muscogee, Richmond, Chatham) making up the vast majority of the difference.

ABC never had AZ in the Biden column. Fake news from the right wing twitter trolls.

I thought Fox was the only one to call AZ?

Fox and Rahm Emmanuel on the ABC broadcast last night (and they kept correcting him...it was kind of funny. It became a bit of a running joke every time AZ came up.)

Trump's lead in PA is under 380k with 1mil+ mail in ballots yet to be counted.

This scene I am seeing of the counting location in Detroit is insane.

Trump campaign claiming victory in PA, lol.

VICTORY for President @realDonaldTrump in PENNSYLVANIA ‼️

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) November 4, 2020

Is this the coded message for the lawyers to swarm?

I think I would be fine with Twitter being deleted. Facebook too.

This is a cult. Come on AZ, MI, PA. Let's end this nonsense.

I'll be sure not to vote for him

Whats happening there?

PA stuff

https://www.votespa.com/About-Electi...Dashboard.aspx

Bunch of Trumpers trying to gain access to where the votes are being counted saying they are "poll watchers"