I'll argue the other side: Trump is a unicorn candidate similar to the way Obama was. People just turn out for him. The "Trump lite" thing sounds good on paper, but who is it? Does he/she have decades of name recognition as a larger than life cultural figure, and then another ~10 years of reality TV stardom? Do they have that "billionaire maverick" archetype going for them that seems to intrigue the public?

I think there is one Donald Trump. And I'm glad.

Well, seeing a graphic that WI is reporting 101% of the vote, so you can fully expect a legal battle there!

Wisconsin finishes counting with Biden in the lead by 20k votes.

Election Conspiracy theories based on false info are already starting to get traction on the right. “How are 3.3M votes showing for WI when they only have 3.2M registered voters???” (Apparently an old screen shot is the 3.2M number. I checked their state site, and the actual number was 3.7M on 11/1, and they allow walk-up registration.

Wisconsin giving 110% for Biden. That's another turnout record.

Heh. Cross post. Same thing I saw I’ll bet. Fact check it at their state web site: November 1, 2020 Voter Registration Statistics | Wisconsin Elections Commission

There's already some doctored images showing results dumps in excess of 100k votes all going to Biden.

i'm pretty sure right pundits are just making shit up on twitter

i think i read somewhere saying the national guard was help transcribing bad ballots into new ones to be fed into the machine

The starting point would probably be to not have a non white minority message for a place like Dade County that has a significant non white majority. Why would the Cuban community specifically in Dade County feel that the GOP is against them?

To your larger point, the Republicans have done a very good job with black people specifically this cycle. Democrats have been warned about taking the black vote for granted. Who knows if they will listen.

Democrats definitely take the black vote for granted. If the Republicans would have put up a candidate who doesn't embrace white supremacy I feel comfortable saying you would see alot of black men vote Republican.

The problem is if you don't have a candidate that embraces white supremacy, would you have such a strong R turnout?

Yeah, I think someone like Tim Scott could get a lot of black vote in a Presidential race, but will he get anywhere near the same white vote to win?

FWIW, this is more or less what I think. Look at what happened in 2018 without Trump on the ballot. However, I think this election is close enough that the GOP will see the upside on doubling down and trying to expand their gains with Florida Latinos and black males.

Did Wisconsin really get 3.2 million voters out of 3.6 million registered voters? That's a fantastic turnout

If you live in a swing state, your vote truly does count.

The difference is less than 1% so I see no way Trump doesn't demand a recount.

California gets to decide a bunch of crappy props!

I don't think that works though. What makes Trump who he is and why his followers love him is they know he doesn't have that off switch. It makes him authentic to them.

It all depends on exactly why you think people voted for Trump. My opinion on the why hasn't changed much - I could be wrong but I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwhise.

I will say that I don't think the Obama comparison flies. There's a big difference in Obama and Trump's midterm performance.

Tie's still on the table, too.

NV, NC, WI Blue. PA, GA, MI Red.

I'm still worried about AZ.

The outstanding votes are from Dem areas, but I think that they are E-day votes, which skew Trump

Some updates on the counting:

2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage | FiveThirtyEight

And why can't Nevada count the ballots until tomorrow? What the heck are they doing today? They can't have that many ballots out there.

To me, this is one of the most shocking results. I thought Biden would carry my former state in a cakewalk. It trends more Democrat with each passing election. Hillary Clinton won by 2.5% in 2016. It will be interesting to see the analysis on why it was so close.

Gamblin'

Apparently 14% left to count... most from the 2 counties where Vegas and Reno are located. But late arriving mail ins and provisionals are to be counted.

I heard speculation that a lot of casino employees have left the state due to layoffs draining the blue voters from Vegas.

GOP voters are going through what Dems went through on election night 2016. The election is clearly shifting toward the opponent and they're hanging onto a scenario where they need multiple statistical oddities to align to win.

Trump is asking for a Wisconsin recount... but there is no way it's going to make up 20k votes.

Leon Lett strikes again

Georgia is now separated by 86k votes and votes from Atlanta metro counties are still coming in.

That's probably true. The Las Vegas valley has changed dramatically since I first moved there in 1990. The population has gone from 750,000 to about 2.5 million. Most of that increase is with the undereducated casino/service workers who have suffered significant job losses during the pandemic.

For what it's worth, the crime rate in Las Vegas has also been on the rise, even in the so-called safe areas. We recently moved to Florida from a nice master planned community on the west side of the Las Vegas valley. When we purchased the home, almost everyone in the subdivision owned their homes. Now, about 1 out of 3 are rentals. There have been home invasions, auto thefts, vandalism, things that were almost non-existent there 10 years ago.

Michigan getting close to being over 1% lead. Looking like Peters is going to lose there and GOP will keep Senate control unless Wayne County brings an early XMas present of a 35,000 vote margin to him.

Kent County (Grand Rapids) might chip in some for Peters, too. Though it's traditionally red, it went blue in the 2018 senate race, and there are mail-in ballots left to count there that could be blue-leaning as well.

Peters is now in the lead with 20% left in Wayne county so I think he eeks by.

Yeah, by 1100 votes. Yeesh

Gideon concedes to Collins in Maine.

So now the twitter trolls are talking about Sharpies in AZ...doesn't the consistent need to peddle in conspiracy theories become nauseating at some point

See this where the relationship with the hip hop artists are instructive.

TW: race talk. because that is what was presented.

We have just seen two election cycles where a portion of the white community have said that despite the things they find objectionable about Trump, they voted for him. That includes some of the things he has said and done regarding race. For many in that community they believe that he will be more beneficial to them financially compared to Biden.

Now we can argue back and forth about the existence/significance of white supremacy among those on the right in 2020 and we definitely do. What does not get discussed nearly as often as the existence/significance of white supremacy on the left. It really only comes up when those on the right bring up both sides. I leave it to you to argue about whether it is there on both sides and how much is there. I assure you that it is discussed among the black community. My read is that there is a significant portion of the black community who believe that there is not that much of a difference in the white supremacy on the left and the white supremacy on the right. Ice Cube for example has been part of that portion for decades as have many of the rappers of his era.

If you are a part of the portion of the black community that holds the belief that white supremacy is in both political parties, that it is something you find objectionable with both sides, and that it is something you will have to deal with for the foreseeable future from both sides, what will get you to vote? The Republicans are making is if you have to deal with white supremacy anyway that you might as well go with the side that will get you paid. The Democrats' argument has been making we will get rid of the white supremacy, just watch. That argument has been ringing hollow for a while and it is beginning to cost the Democrats at the ballot box.

I appreciate your point, but then you run into the same problem that whites have, which is Republicans aren't getting anyone paid except the wealthy. So I guess they're being successful in getting people to either pretend they're wealthy enough to need tax cuts or will be someday vs. voting in their own actual interest... it's a trick the GOP has been pulling for many years.

The democrats have been making this argument for decades. A large percentage of the republican base is convinced that the democrats actually want the scourge of white supremacy to continue, lest it cost them guaranteed votes from a substantial portion of their electorate.

Not saying this is baseless, but does it have to be that 'deep' ? Especially since it's not a case of blacks just not voting or on the face of it switching their votes but simply more of a + for Trump than Biden (tell me if i am utterly wrong in terms of numbers)

I mean, of course there are also black (or latino or other groups) voters who are doing well and are looking out for No1. Thus voting due to buying into the reputation re: Economy or are kinda happy about less immigration/refugees happening for some of the same reasons/fears as whites are.
Or might actually agree with the "individual freedom" stance re: Covid. Or are gun nuts.

People are people, not always fitting neatly into categories or being guided by one specific thing/issue over all others.

Error in Arizona: 86 percent of vote in, not 98 percent | TheHill


the ride never ends! Biden has a <100K lead on trump

Every single poll taken of the Maine Senate race had Gideon beating Collings - ALL OF THEM. Yet in the end Collins *crushed* Gideon. This isn't a matter of polling not being able to see the supposed "hidden Trump voter", it's a systemic blind spot that polling cannot account for and cannot answer.

This came out early this morning, but just about every analysis has said the remaining votes are in Maricopa County (and mail in votes) so very unlikely Trump can come back in Arizona.

CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

Something I have been trying to find on this - of the votes left to count are they all same day votes or are they mail in votes? Just trying to figure out which way they may break.

A lot of those here were election day drop offs though, which could favor the GOP, when the normal trend is heavily Dem with these ballots. It is going to keep it uncomfortably close.

Dola, I am aware of several friends that voted Biden, that dropped off yesterday too.

The timing of the Ice Cube kerfuffle seems like it actually worked out well to highlight that the 'Platinum Plan' was the rare piece of 2020 Trump policy that actually has a solid plan behind it, whereas the Dems were seemingly hoping to coast on a message of "Just trust us".