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I think it's because PA won't start counting a large portion (some counties, all) of their mail in ballots until tomorrow, so having a needle seems pointless. We won't know the results from PA for days, if not a week. |
Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.
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I think TX is done. Lots of rural areas still out.
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NC NYT number seems weird. 74% of vote in and Biden up 51-47, but still showing 79% Trump?
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Yeah, I don't get the arrow on the NYTimes site still heavily favoring Trump. |
Vote totals seem to be tracking with at least a 65% turnout, quite possibly higher with the late-counted ones. That part is good news.
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WTH is going on with the Virginia reporting?
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Biden's NC lead is steadily going down, so perhaps they expect it to continue to do that based on where the outstanding vote is. Very weird to have NYT leaning that far Trump though and Fox leaning Biden. .
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The NYT needle is really confusing me as well. I also just saw that metro Atlanta is much more Biden than Clinton and a lot of Fulton County absentee won't be counted for hours due to the water main break in State Farm.
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At least you have that option. I've spent my adulthood failing at life, so I doubt there's any country out there that would take me. (Not that Donald alone would make that decision for me. I'm about 99% there on wanting to live abroad for a good chunk of my life anyway) |
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It just went up to 81% Trump. |
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One of the two is going to feel really stupid when we figure out what it is that NC did.
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CNN is really bullish on NC for Biden as well from what I'm overhearing from the other room, so somebody is wrong.
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Easier said than done unless you are already from Europe (maybe you are, I don’t know). |
Looks like Graham is pulling away from Harrison
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I'd like for it to be wrong, but I trust the NYT with numbers a bit more than Fox News.
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This is definitely the most FOFC posters I've seen in one place since, you know, last election. 94 viewers.
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Seeing those exits polls from AZ feels really important right about now
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It's over. At least last time I was in Thailand and didn't have to go back to real life for a week.
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Wife got offered a role for her company in England. We could live by her sister and our nieces, rent our house, then she would take over as president of N America for a Buffet company when we come back in 2-3 years. Looks pretty damn good right about now.
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NC up to 85% Trump now. |
2020 man, 2020. I was just to check in for about half an hour tonight, confirm my expectations, and spend the rest of the evening doing other things.
About that ... |
Predicit crashed. "Closed for Maintenance"
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So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump.
Or maybe both are broken??? |
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The explanation I'd seen somewhere for the NYT prediction is that the counties that would go Biden came in very early, plus the early voting results, and so there is an expectation for the numbers in the state to slowly swing red throughout the rest of the count. I'm stunned to see the stark differences between sites/news outlets though. |
At ~70% reporting, Biden's lead was at ~200k. With 77% reporting, his lead is down to ~140k.
NYT is pretty sure Trump makes up that ground, and Fox News is pretty sure he doesn't., I guess |
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This seems to be the one thing we all forgot about... 2020. When all else fails, it's still 2020. |
Just saw the reporting from HAmilton county in Ohio and I am cautiously optimistic
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I don’t know. Fox News is using an entirely different model this year that doesn’t use any exit polls in their analysis. They called Virginia almost instantly for Biden after the polls closed there. |
78%....50.8-48.1
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CNN is doing their best to try and make the horse race interesting. I'm having a hard time watching their analysis. NBC, too. It's all about the horse race, not about the likely outcome SI |
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Im not much of a participator, but I'm a reader |
NC going Trump. The rural areas win the election again.
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NC: Fox now at 92% Biden, NYT at 88% Trump.
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I am counting on all of you, because I honestly cannot watch.
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Interesting:
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Fox also has Georgia going Biden. Agree with Vegas Vic, it's gotta be a major difference in analysis. They're either going to look like idiots or genuises. I'm guessing the former.
For whatever it's worth, they're saying Trump's early lead in Michigan isn't a mirage and are saying it's a tossup. |
Also Hickenlooper beats Gardener in Colorado, so that's 1 flipped Senate seat so far.
Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk |
This was set up for maximum pain on Biden supporters, too. All the EV tallied first, and then slowly watch the ED votes which apparently broke hard for GOP slowly choke the will out of you as the lead dwindles.
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It's like a mirror of 2016 where it felt like Clinton fell behind in spots she needed to and was scrounging for votes in the end that never came.
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Check this thread. Cohen is saying the NYT thread in GA?NC is based on Florida, and it might not be reading the states differences well.
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Looking at the urban areas in Ohio and the projected percentage of votes left, it looks pretty good for Biden, I think.
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Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.
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Nate Silver:
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Y'all talking about those FoxNews numbers led me over there, and ironically their probability page is actually soothing my fears.
Probability Dials | Elections 2020 | Fox News |
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Now 91% Trump |
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If this isn't the 2020 election in a screenshot, I don't know what is.
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