I think this is, of course, 100% cynical. The calculation is being made that DeSantis is a stronger candidate than Trump.

Exactly, I was reading an article that discussed Trump with GOP strategists and pollsters and the J6 hearings definitely appear to be having an impact on Trump supporters. One said they had multiple focus groups recently where no one wanted Trump to run again and others where he had very little support when put up against other GOP options.

Fox does polls as well as anyone so I'm sure their internal polling is telling them the same. They want a GOP President and they probably see stronger, less polarizing (even if slightly) candidates out there they can push. First, they have to start walking people off the Trump train though.

The Frankenstein monster they created is amusing to watch, if not horrifying as well.

Hawley has a book coming out next spring titled: Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs

You can't make this shit up.

He'll burn it down if they won't worship him.

1/ I find it amusing how few Republicans understand that Trump is a fundamentally vengeful and petty person.

They think shanking him now by stacking the deck for President Ron DeSantis and VP Stefanik will make him go away.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 24, 2022

The smart thing for the dems to do would be to try and find a way to put it in Trumps ear that if he runs as independent he would get the most votes ever by an independent candidate.

While I think maybe a decade ago, there's a potential Polyanna scenario. Trump splits the GOP votes and the Dem can cakewalk into the White House in 2024 with a bit of a landslide. Bonus points if Trump can convince a bunch of back bench GOPers who don't really have a shot at anything to run under his banner. Like, say, the GOP Speaker of the House in a state is never going to get much beyond his position but suddenly Trump champions him for a US Senate seat and that gets him at least 20% of the vote automatically. There's enough people out there who would risk losing it all in the GOP with their small seat on the off chance that they could make it in a much larger seat. Heck, even if they lose, it will raise their profile well above where it was before. And that sort of Congressional scorched earth would hand the Dems a decent majority as many votes look a lot like 45%D-30%T-25%R or whatever. This results in the GOP schism that's been expected for years and will take them a generation to recover.

What I fear is probably more likely is one of those elections you read about in history books like 1824 or 1876. It's the type of thing you read about now and are like "lol - history is so funny but something crazy like that would never happen now". The Supreme Court goes ahead and puts together their bullshit independent state legislature theory in Moore vs Harper in a bitterly divided 5-4 decision with far reaching effects. Roberts scathing dissent is about how it should be narrowly tailored as this opens the door to broken elections. We get to 2024 and, after a bloody primary, DeSantis emerges but not without taking some big blows from Trump. DeSantis and independent Trump trail unpopular President Biden because his base is still going to beat their ticket splitting. That's what looks like happens when everyone calls the election for Biden on Election Night - he gets a low percentage of votes, only about 40% and no one is really happy with the results.

Only something funny happens on the way to certifying the election - Trump strikes a grand bargain with DeSantis where Trump gets to be President while DeSantis is VP and a newly created position of Prime Minister or something, as chief administrator of the government. They combine their votes and electors, per rules rushed into place by the 30 GOP-led state legislatures, and now the new Trump/GOP coalition has both houses of Congress and the White House without even winning a majority or even plurality of the vote. Sure, there are riots for a while but those are put down and outgoing President Biden calls for a peaceful transition of power. Trump takes back over and the structure of the government is altered dramatically over the next 4 years as the filibuster is removed, the Supreme Court backs all their decisions, ushering in a new era where there isn't really a separation of church and state but more of a partnership. Some historians would point out how this was very similar to how a number of democracies have died across civilizations, but they're dismissed as crazy, hysterical leftist loons.

SI

Trump can't run as an independent. That requires doing the hard and detailed work of getting on the ballot. Without the GOP apparatus around him, he lacks the talented and hard working people necessary to do that work.

I suspect there would be enough people willing to go for the ride who would prop Trump up.

The more interesting thing is let’s say he losses the primary. Does he get enough write in votes to sink the GOP or more likely does he go back and use the fixed election lies against his own party and disenfranchise a large number of voters to stay home for the general. I don’t see him accepting a primary loss any more than he would accept one in the general.

Predictions are hard.
Predictions about the future are even harder.
And predictions about Trump are the hardest of all.
So all of you might be right about Trump as GOP spoiler.

But I think that we are all underestimating just how much the GOP apparatus propped Trump up. He "took over" the party. But it wasn't a hostile takeover. They decided that they wanted him, and with the fig leaf of a few #NeverTrump tweets by people who wanted to be seen as moderates, they embraced him. He was the GOP candidate, with all of the advantages that entails.

But if they decided not to do that in 2024, then everything changes. With the full might of the GOP and the GOP's lawyers and Fox News, etc. against him on top of the liberal opposition to him, I don't think he gets anywhere close to a ballot or to playing spoiler.

I think that's true but I'm not sure Trump knows that or could be convinced of that. If he can't, then it's scorched earth petty insanity season.

That said, I don't know how the GOP convinces Trump not to run in 2024. And I'm not sure anyone in the GOP, even DeSantis, wins after being punched in the mouth by Trump repeatedly.

SI

It's a weird dynamic. The vast majority of GOP officials want to move on from Trump, but can't (WON'T) because of his popularity. Yet the movement he brought together has shown signs of cracking and moving beyond him. He's been booed for suggesting people get vaccinated, and on Friday night in Arizona, he was booed when he mentioned the name of one of the potential Congressmen he endorsed, which elicited the most Trumpy of all Trump responses: "But you like me right?"

He's brought out neo-Nazis and other fringe-awful groups who presumably vote GOP so the party has gone mostly quiet on those ties, save for a few general denouncements. Witness all of the swastika people in Florida this weekend who were clearly pro-DeSantis, and he has said nothing about them while the convention he spoke at did the backpeddling for the GOP.

The GOP seems to be in this situation where they want to do right but can't ignore that doing wrong works so well for them. It's like someone's SS checks accidentally ending up in your bank account and you want to tell someone, but that extra $1500 a month sure makes life easier.

Trump is lazy and a coward, so I don't see him running a third party bid if he losses the primary. It's just too much work and a loss hurts his psyche much more than not running. He would, though, do his best to sabotage the GOP nominee. If he could point to a loss and say, see, I told you so, that would help fill the deep hole in his heart.

The real question, though, is whether the GOP media, especially the Murdoch empire, would deny him coverage. Trump could have a hard time getting his message out if Fox freezes him out.

What do you mean? He's got trump Social!

Honestly don't you think the Rs hope trump gets taken out by the Jan6 commission? Because then he's out of the way, trump can cry martyr every day, and his next iteration and the party use is as fuel for the fire.

That's how I see it playing out best for them.

I certainly hope that if he loses the primary he makes the GOP Convention as much of a shitshow as January 6th was.


If he loses the primary, it's hard to see him running as an independent. Not necessarily because it's too much work (others would do the work), but in about half the states the deadline to file as an independent has passed by mid-summer which is when the likely GOP convention would be.

Not that I couldn't see a nomination-losing Trump wanting to run as a spoiler, but at that point few people would sign on to do all the hard work for a campaign which has literally no chance of winning.


So, best case scenario is that he loses a really close nomination fight, turns the convention into a violent shitshow that can't formally nominate a candidate, tied the whole thing up in litigation through Labor Day, and fatally weakens whomever the eventual nominee is, with potential downstream impacts.

I think this is what they should have done during the first impeachment.

The problem is that each year that passes the MAGA people get more powerful within the party. Will the Greene/Boebert/Gosar folks just move on if Trump is kneecapped? They can't win by themselves, but they could wreck a lot of GOP races.

A lot if them, and I highlight Gosar, are in such a safe situation they can continue to act like Clowns. Yavapai county here is highly red, and even though a lot of people up there are worn out by Gosar's antics, they will never cross parties and will absorb the lunacy because he is a 'Patriot' that plays on their fears, so it is even tough for a reasonable republican to unseat him.

If he loses the primary I fully expect him to challenge it and continue to run calling the winner and competitors RINOs. He didn’t acknowledge our system why would he honor the Republican one?

Well then...

Short: I don’t think Matt Gaetz will have an impact… in fact, I’d be surprised if he was still voting. It’s more likely he’ll be in prison for child sex trafficking… I’m surprised law enforcement lets him speak to teenage conferences like that pic.twitter.com/ALuay3VmoI

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 25, 2022

It's so crazy that the puritan party that accuses normal teachers of being pedophile/gay groomers is totally OK with actual former escort Boebert telling a bunch of teenagers that she never escorted for Ted Cruz, but it's totally the coolest thing ever that that story is out there.

WTF?

Washington Post is reporting Trump is under DOJ investigation. I continue to believe all of this is orchestrated - no info for months after January 6, 1/6 Committee does its work, lays all of it out for the public this summer like an episodic TV show, Garland starts doing interviews, including one with NBC News tonight, and then all of a sudden the leaks start about details of subpoenas and grand jury testimony.

I've always thought Garland wants Georgia to drop their indictment first.

Speaker at CPAC in a couple weeks.

“Worthy of Goebbels.”

After Viktor Orbán startled Europe by declaring countries were “no longer nations” after different races blend, one of his own longtime advisers quit - and she didn’t do so quietly, comparing his comments to “pure Nazi text."https://t.co/4ou0Lqiuqo

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) July 26, 2022

This can't be real. It IS Twitter, so out of context is possible.

BREAKING: Portland restaurant comes up with innovative new idea to promote racial equity: Creating separate sections for black and white diners.

"We want to provide a safe space for our diners of color to ease the trauma of living in this racist society," the owner said.

— Jeff Charles (@JeffOnTheRight) July 27, 2022

It's not real. Just another right-winger complaining about a hypothetical situation that isn't happening.

remember that teen who started suing all and sundry about an incident where he appeared to be blocking and smirking a native american protesting? He had a minor settlement with CNN and various right-wingers said "Oh, he's going to OWN major portions of the other media companies who didn't settle!".

No, Nae so much.

Remaining claims dismissed or lost on summary judgement.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/re...91670.90.0.pdf

Unsurprisingly, he was well compensated for his 15-minutes of fame to help feed the grievance machine: January 2019 Lincoln Memorial confrontation - Wikipedia


SI

The media still fucked that one up.

This is such a weird story. Will be interesting to see if someone this far-right can win in Pennsylvania.

Republican Doug Mastriano Refuses to Denounce Nazi Ally

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...sota-election/

There are a lot of myths in contemporary American politics. But the biggest one might be this idea that MAGA was perfectly happy just living its life until liberal overreach forced them into the public sphere. These people have wanted to control of the most intimate aspects of all of our lives for a long time. Liberals did not force them to do anything.

Just a reminder on the sort of shit we're missing out on.

July 31, 2020 – A day after Trump aired the possibility of delaying the election, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany rebuked the Hong Kong government for postponing its own elections. “This action undermines the democratic processes and freedoms that have underpinned Hong Kong’s prosperity,” she said.

July 31, 2017 – Donald Trump dictated a public statement on behalf of his son, Donald Trump Jr., regarding a meeting between Trump Jr. and a Russian lawyer. President Trump’s dictation stated the meeting "primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children.” A subsequent release of Trump Jr.’s email thread on the topic indicated that the topic of the meeting was regarding Clinton and Russian support for Trump’s campaign.

July 31, 2017 – New White House Chief of Staff John Kelly fired Anthony Scaramucci ten days into Scaramucci’s tenure as communications director.

"I wouldn't say I've been missing it, Bob"

'I love it': Donald Trump Jr posts emails from Russia offering material on Clinton | Donald Trump | The Guardian
Also, it's amazing how that second one was swept completely under the rug. I mean, it was amazing to watch in real time and it's been all but completely forgotten. People were accusing Trump of having met the Russians who offered dirt on Hillary Clinton. He gave his usually bullshit rorschach bullshit response that the media futilely tried to dissect for a week. Then he flatly denied it. But then Don Jr released emails TO THE MEDIA that totally admitted they were doing it. And not like "oh, if you look closely, you can subtly connect the dots" or mob-esque non-specific "Yeah, Vinnie, take care of the business". It was like "yeah, I love the dirt you dug up on Clinton - release it late in the campaign" and a list of who met them and when. If you had submitted this for Law and Order, they'd have been like "yeah, too on the nose".

It was such a weird, stupid unforced error - like who just releases a confession to the media after trying to hide it for a couple of weeks. But, I mean, that's what you get when, well, that whole family and White House was basically one big incompetent mess. But then... it just disappeared. It had to compete for news cycles with whatever "flood the zone "crap Bannon came up. And then the Charlottesville Nazi march happened about a week and a half later.

Sure the campaign had a lot of "now that's the thing that brings him down" moments, most notably the Access Hollywood tape. And there were some little ones in his first few months. But, this was only a few months into his Presidency so we hadn't gotten to the place where we all just assumed nothing would bring him down. This was the first real test of that. I mean, his son admitted that a bunch of the inner circle like Kushner and Manafort met with the Russians to try and fix an election. The Ruskies! Like Ronald Reagan rolling over in his grave Russians, surely there would be an objection here even from his own party,

But, nope. This was also where, anecdotally, feelings towards Russia started to shift among my coworkers. In the past I had been made fun of for studying the Russian language in college and visiting Russia a few years prior - the old Reagan trope of them as the Cold War enemy. These were the same people who loved to call the Ukranian sysadmin "Russian", in the pejorative, and watch him get pissed before he eventually just started ignoring them (strangely, the couple of Indian dudes who did that didn't take too kindly to when I called them Pakistani one time and protested loudly abut how that was so much different - weird, that). That was when I remembered them really starting to warm up to Russia and be like "see, Putin isn't so bad" and stuff about how people in Russia had it so much better than here because they were still anti-gay, etc.

SI

After perusing the comments in the Fox News forums, I've been able to determine the new definition of "RINO", as defined by the MAGAts. Essentially, a "RINO" is any republican that doesn't have their head buried up Tromp's ass, regardless of how conservative their actual voting record is.

When they're calling Dan Crenshaw and Liz Cheney RINOs, the term has lost all meaning other than that defined above by Vic.

Wait, what :

To recap, Trump couldn’t decide whether to endorse Eric Greitens or Eric Schmitt in the Missouri Senate race, so he just endorses “ERIC” the night before the election. Now both are graciously thanking him for his sincere support. pic.twitter.com/voE4Z3myOk

— Natalie Allison (@natalie_allison) August 1, 2022

I saw on Twitter from former Congresswoman from Missouri, Claire McCaskell, that there was actually a third Eric running for the Republicans, she showed the list of those running and congratulated him on getting the endorsement over the other two Erics. :)

Can’t back the wrong horse if you back all of them

Are we sure he just wasn't endorsing his son?

SI

He was endorsing Eric, the half-a bee.

This guy was President of the United States.

This guy thinks he still is

Greitens is getting destroyed...

And in a good night for news, Pat Cipollone gets subpoened to appear in front of the Grand Jury investigating Jan 6. Don't think his executive privilege arguments are going to float there

Election-denier Kari Lake down early in AZ gov race too. :)

I still can't fathom how they think "the election is rigged/votes are counted wrong/etc" is a winnig strategy in an election that, well, kinda depends on people to vote. Which they kinda be more likely to do knowing their vote is handled correctly,no ? I mean, it's not like this was a case of her being without any chance anyway (in which case, sure, go straight to the grift if you want to be a despicable excuse of a human being).

You win the internet

Sadly Batshit crazy still plays well on Arizona. Nazi Blake Masters wins the GOP senate nomination, Finchem the secretary of state nod and Lake, trailing by almost 10% when I went to bed and screaming how 'they' were trying to steal the election, now leads by under 12K votes with 20% left to count. Since these ballots are almost assuredly from rural areas, which are full of MAGA loons, she should only expand that lead.

Makes my November ballot real easy, will only be the second time (2020 the first) I have voted straight one party. I just won't do crazy and thankfully most independents here won't either, so it will hopefully be democrats in both senate seats and the Governors mansion come November.

I'm so glad someone got the reference.