There's some population growth but also just more people are voting this election. County population is 375K

SI

It was a get out to vote/BLM march

https://twitter.com/JoshStein_/with_replies

refresh stein's twitter feed for updates I guess

dola reading some of the twitter comments, looks like it was peaceful until the police tried to seize sound equipment from the marchers and things got violent.

DSM Register poll just came out that has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 48-41. Their final poll in 2016 also had Trump up 7 and he won by 9. Gotta hope this is just an outlier. The independents did a complete 180 in the poll from the month before. Selzer is a great pollster but it just seems strange.

But I'm sure he'll find a totally originalist way of looking at this. It has nothing to do with him just being a partisan hack.

SI

In 2016 only 55.7% of legal and alive voting age americans cast their vote.

Only, but I was actually impressed it was that many. It isn't always. My impression is that in the long-term, although it will be up this cycle, that lower levels in future decades are to be expected.

You think they were in a hurry and quivering ? First page of the brief:



Twitter

Anyone else got something on PredictIt?

I got shares of the following:

Biden wins Iowa (.30)
Biden wins Florida (.42)
Biden wins North Carolina (.50)
Biden wins by 10.5% or more (.19)

Not on PredictIt but through a friend got Biden at -160.

Yup.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

If Trump does win, then we're done with polls.

If he wins through vote counts not the courts, anyways

SI

Trump winning wouldn't mean we'd be done with polls, it would just mean we need to make an adjustment in polling science. That's like saying we don't trust physics because quantam mechanics was a surprise or relativity turned out to be imperfectly articulated and defined.

That's a more accurate way of putting it

SI

I was a bit concerned after seeing the Iowa poll plus the rumor that a GOP pollster was privately telling the GOP that they had Trump ahead in all swing states (McLaughlin, I think?), but then I read that if Biden takes WI, MI and NC with the rest of the relatively safe Clinton states, he gets to 275 EV. Now, that sets up an almost certain challenge by Trump since it's so close, but at least he'd be in front. Hopefully that scenario plays out plus he takes one or more of AZ, GA, PA, and FL.

I don't hold out much hope for TX. I think that ends up at best like the Beto result - great considering it's TX but still a loss, even if it was close.

EDIT to add: the good news is we'll know the outcome for NC on Tuesday unless it's too close to call. It won't be a result of waiting for ballots - the Board said they'll be able to report 97% of ballot that night.

This "holy shit" moment.

I tried to get in on the Biden wins outright, but that market was capped at number of traders.

I did add: Biden wins PA (.61)

That should help in the Federal Court case.

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Klepper is great. It is amazing how these people believe everything they are spoon fed.

What do you know. Disenfranchising voters was denied.

Eh. Their eggs are already in the 5th circuit and Supreme Court, anyway.

Absolutely need a quick NC call for Biden and maybe AZ or GA to seal things by Wednesday morning or we're in for a world of hurt.

Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears ahead on election night - Axios

The Argentina comment going completely over her head after that was jaw dropping.

It's what authoritarian leaders do. Forment confusion, obfuscate international oversight, create a plausible alternative fact tree to keep out observers and drive partisan support. It's very successful in places that aren't the US. The fact that it's even thought possible here is simply outrageous, but you can see the map for it, and it's been obvious for a long time.

Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January?

They would need several republicans to come to their side in the senate to impeach him. Doubt that happens.

89 today.

Dems would need 67 votes in the Senate to do that. And that just makes Pence president.

Back down to 89. Cue the sky is falling hand-wringing. It is encouraging to see the number of court cases about the election that are going the way of suppressing not being accepted.

And yeah, the Senate could just impeach Trump (nvm they won't have enough votes to do it), but then they'd have to impeach Pence as well which would just mean Pelosi would be president, and it would be obvious at that point what is going on. President would just refuse to leave, it would accomplish nothing.

Maybe TX can flip.

I hope it does. That's the kind of statement that would accelerate the necessary rethinking the Republican Party needs to do at the ground level.

like.........ohhhhhh i dunno......2000?

did anyone see the cookie monster gif I accidently posted before? That was a mistake...albeit probably an amusing one for you

how many shades of grey does one map need...

was 90 this morn

I guess it's not great for color blind folks, but it means it's good for Democrats.

Trump got some good state polls for Florida and North Carolina, but all were from right wing pollsters so they move the needle but not much.

hehe I mean I'm not colorblind but there are several dark green grey shades plus one regular grey for no data. :)

I mean there ARE other colors....

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

georgia win will be so fucking sweet

Y'all Qaeda doing the same in Houston, too

Heavy traffic continues on the 610 Loop. Congestion has been exacerbated by major traffic collision. Please avoid the Loop. Lead vehicle of event is at the 59 and North Freeway. Tale of event has still not departed Fannin https://t.co/jZXfF5TXGH

— Chief Art Acevedo (@ArtAcevedo) November 1, 2020

SI

I'm sure the Trump administration and right wing media are going to condemn it since they pushed Desantis to make the same thi g a felony in Florida.

anyone from texas....can you give me a play by play of this state and which are democratic heavy and/or populous cities?


are ALL the green areas cities or not? I know nothing about this state really except for austin city limits and beans

oh yeah Mike Nesmith too

I haven't lived in Texas in 13 years but that looks like the high turnout areas are San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. All of which will vote dem by large margins.

and i don't understand how georgia's two senate seats can go to different parties...

Happening here also. Morons shut down the Garden State Parkway. Election day is going to be such a shitshow

Dallas is democrat??? I thought everything up north was heavy rep