Heh, True :)

Good job Texas.

I've not heard of any other states already surpassing 2016 totals but let's hope more states follow. It would be fantastic if we can go from 2016 58% to the 70s (but I read a while ago the projection was in high 60's only).

Can Trump win again despite the polls? FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on 2016’s lessons - Vox

Great interview with Nate Silver at Vox concerning the election, comparisons to 2016,and the likelihood of an electoral crisis. Transcript of the interview is at the bottom.

According to Liberal Twitter, we should freak out because Biden is campaigning in the Blue Wall states, meaning that his internal polling is showing that those states aren't in the bag.

AND we should freak out b/c Biden is campaigning outside of the Blue Wall states, meaning that he is making Hillary's mistake of taking the Blue Wall for granted.

Sigh.

Freaked out people view more articles.

:popcorn:

There are occasions on which liberal twitter doesn't hit the nail squarely on the head.

FWIW, I tend to agree with Nate Silver that, in races with lots of public polling (like this one), it is easy to over-read what the campaigns are doing.

They are not likely to have much more accurate internal numbers than the public information.

Trump's said he intends to hold 15 rallies in 3 days, which seems excessive.

So my dream scenario for Tuesday is that Trump is clearly behind by Tuesday night and the only way he can win is to argue that we have to wait and count all of the absentee ballots. That way, he and the GOP will have hung themselves by both pushing people to vote early thanks to the USPS and other transparent voter suppression tactics AND limited most of the effect absentee ballots could have in his favor by some of the court challenges they have won.

Man would that scenario be SWEET!

I think that's entirely possible. Some of those suppression tactics have likely worked just as well against their own (relatively old) base as anybody else, right?

What would make that especially sweet is it would likely cost them some close Senate/House races that could be decided by late absentees. Also,it would just make the margin he lost by much bigger, providing further embarrasment.

As far as registration goes, Dems hold a 30 point lead with ballots already cast. They hold a 12 point lead with outstanding ballots. In this environment I'd rather already have my votes cast than rely on people to get out with limited polling stations and Covid.

The fact that the GOP telegraphed their voter suppression so blatantly this time plus lessons learned from Georgia in 2016 may hurt their own voters more than Dems.

Yep. We were more than ready this time. Every Democrat out there told people to make a Plan: vote early or drop ballots off. Don't depend on the mail unless you send it in like a month before hand.

I'm paying attention to the mail now and it's getting attention nationally, but not nearly enough. I'm not sure Dems can do anything until/unless Biden wins but my son is finally receiving a letter from the VA regarding his GI bill claim (he's been in school for a month and a half) postmarked the 21st from Kansas.

If Texas, California, New York fo blue, does BiDen even need anything else?

man the electoral numbers REALLY make ZERO sense

I dropped our ballots off Monday night, and it still took Tuesday and Wednesday for them to make it a grand total of 15 miles to the office so they could be received on Thursday. Of course, they can't start counting these ballots til Tuesday at 9am, because PA is a stupid state.

The most perfect scenario would be for this to happen yet Biden have such a lead that the ballots not counted won't change the outcome.

It is not likely but this is what I am hoping for.

That was 2 days ago. NC now showing 66-34.

I would think this has a negative effect. He already has the maniacs who go to these things in the bag. Everyone else sees how irresponsible he is being with them and it reeks of desperation.

He won't rest, until everyone has Covid!

Trump loves the rallies.

I think that he's doing them just b/c he likes doing them.

There is no better way for a narcissist to feed his ego than having 5-10K sycophants cheering every meandering, disjointed thing that comes out of his mouth.

He's already into desperation. I mean, the only way he can lose is if the 4+1 court justices let him!

Just in case folks want this info.

When Do Polls Close? When Should We Expect Election Results? | FiveThirtyEight

Just attended another honk n' wave (tm) in Mason and met Kate Schrader who is running for our House seat that was fricking gerimandered within an inch of its life.
Got a picture with her.

Last time I was at this spot a week ago honks were sparse. This time every stoplight the honks were off the charts!

This is much more rural than the Sharonville one I was at...altho the Sharonville one is still burbland usually red. But lotsa blue

that's called phlegm

Why does it take SO much longer to count mailed/drop-off ballots v. in-person? Isn't it just opening the envelope and verifying the signature? In-person, they still have to do some kind verification, hand someone a ballot, direct him to the booth, get the ballot back, put in the machine, etc.

Plus the in-person voting comes in throughout the day, all the way to the time the polls close, where the received mailed ballots are all ready to go in the morning (for states that wait to count until then).

Speaking of The Economist

The Economist Endorses Joe Biden, Says Donald Trump 'Must Be Soundly Rejected'

I think in most places the day of votes are counted systemically. At least where I vote, I select in the computer and I assume those then counted automatically as I'm validated when I check-in at the polling place.

They have to take each mail in ballot and verify it (usually by comparing signatures to those on file), and then log the person on to file to make sure they only voted once. That slows the process down a bit.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Just did some digging. Couldn’t find this for sure, but it seems pretty certain: if Harrison defeats Graham (and the polls are showing it as a close one,) South Freaking Carolina becomes the first state with an all-black Senate delegation.

Yeah, I've seen that, too.

90/10

Yeah it would be great, even if one of them is Tim Scott

FYI: We have fairly robust early voting in the state so it's not all that surprising to see high voter turnout. I can't speak to numbers across the state but, in 2016, our county cast about 80% of ballots early (99K/121K). That said, we are already up to 139K (115%) with Election Day still to come.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-2020-election
Harris County (Houston) is already about 100K over their previous high at 1.44M. They deserve a huge amount of credit with polling places like the Toyota Center, NRG Arena (the convention center attached to NRG stadium), and a sites in the Texas Med Center, a couple of which were open 24 hours for a couple of days.

SI

90 million votes or so before election day. Hard to know, though, what election day turnout will look like.

I guess there was a bunch of illegals, dead people etc. voting :)

So your county population increased by (at least) 18K or approx +15% in 4 years? That's pretty good growth.

The President of "Law and Order" strikes again as Trump fanatics, some carrying weapons driving trucks and blocking the Biden bus from making an appearance today. :(

First let's stop them from being able to vote on time. If they get through, next step is to get the early votes thrown out.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

Trump supporters ram into Biden campaign staff in an act of domestic terror. : PublicFreakout

This is totally normal. The white car getting forced out of the right lane was a staffer with the bus tour.

Low Energy. Sad!

Seriously though, this almost comes off as a pre-concession soundbite. He looks/sounds tired and defeated in this clip.

The President seems subdued and this almost sounds like concession speech pic.twitter.com/JFZdARZ9Ck

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 31, 2020

Trump has been using this as a foil for a while, when he's seeing that he is inspiring monstrous anti-Trump fundraising amounts, his argument has been that the all-time fundraising champ is still Trump, but since he's such a swell guy he didn't even ask for any help because it would make him beholden to special interests. It's just a spin on the traditional "why a millionaire is better for the common man" trope, but splicing it like above in a way to make it sound like he's talking about a "what could have been" second term (instead of a fundraising total) is deliberately disingenuous.

If he had fundraised more, that would have meant a second term in his mind. It sounds like he's referring to both to me. One would have lead to the other.

In any event, his body language/speech tone is terrible.

...and yes, once he loses the actual election, this will morph into the "rigged" conversation, about how all the hollywood liberal antifa wallstreet communist greennewdeal leftist agenda people illegally funded the sleepy joe campaign and Trump could have won easily and he really did anyway but definitely would have even more if he had just asked his friends for money but he just had to save america because he needs to be on mount rushmore and three nominations for the nobel he was being treated very unfairly nobodys ever seen anything like it over there in sweden they did the herd mentality and they don't even let you see your doctor okay its very unfair and they gace it to obama but that was before they even saw what we were able to do in such a short time it was really like that

Boomhauer?

imagine whining about cheating elections when your party has time and time again tried to throw out as many votes as possible

it's got to be very freeing, being so fully untethered from truth

Any NC folks have a clear idea of what happened in Alamance County? The video shows the sheriff's department spraying people, ut I'm unclear what led to that.