I'll feel pretty stupid too if that happens, but I will own it. Don't see it happening though. Virtually all the evidence for literally almost four years now - and a lot more than that on the reliability of modern polling in general - points the other direction.

That's a pretty impressive prognostication 16 (or 20?) years before the election. I think Frank'll be fine with those sorts of skills.

So SCOTUS issued a ruling tonight that late arriving votes in Wisconsin, even if postmarked by election day, won't be counted.

Kavanaugh in his opinion cited Bush v. Gore, which when it was issued, was expressly stated not to be precedent, and only apply to the specific circumstance of that election.

Honestly, Barrett's acceptance speech of the SCOTUS nomination was pretty good. I think she hit the right notes.

I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt until her record demonstrates otherwise.

Or, you know, I might just be putting lipstick on a pig because I didn't get a vote in the process and just have to live with the outcome however it turns out. ;)

The "under 40" piece is definitely ringing true in my heavily under-40 FB feed. (Lots of former YL kids.) I'm seeing a ton of "never voted before...thought it didn't matter...liked being a rebel.....that was my white privilege" type stuff.

Biden at 88 today at 538. I think this is the first time he hit 88? Maybe got there for a bit then dropped back quickly.

Someone suggested that he wants to design a "sophisticated model" for election forecasting that simply takes all of the other major models and gives the underdog about a 10% greater chance of winning than they do.

That way, if the favorite wins, then you were right b/c you predicted the favorite. But if the underdog wins, then you were right b/c you gave the underdog the best chance of all the major models.

I was chuckling this morning as I read that trump tweeted out that people who want can go back to the polling place and ask for a new ballot to change their votes, because....wait for it......IT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF YOUR LIFE!!!

It is funny to speculate as to what happens.

His people are, very gently, starting to prep him for a loss. Explaining that it isn't his fault. Your debate was awesome, sir. You did great. But it is the fault of the Democrat Party and early voting. People voted for Biden before they saw your awesome debate, sir. And now they want to change their ballots to vote for you, but they can't.

He also pulled out the 2016 line "what the hell do you have to lose" by voting for him. Probably not the line to use this year.

I've wondered that for a while about 538.

The Economist model is much more confident in a Biden victory.

I think 538 earned their reputation as the go-to when they were right on every state I think two cycles ago, or maybe it was 49, and then were basically the only model who thought Trump had a significant chance in 2016. Almost everyone was else was at 99%+ for Hillary and 538 was taking a lot of criticism by them ... until the election happened. The track record indicates to me that their approach is sounder than the others.

It is funny seeing him go back to the well for 2016 lines that really don't play well coming from an incumbent. Even MAGA, which they tried to transition to Keep America Great, they had to scrap and go back to MAGA, which sounds pretty stupid coming from someone who's already had 4 years to make us great again.

So I'm curious, is there anyone here who thinks (not wants) Trump will win? The polls are wrong and don't reflect what is really happening right now. the silent majority, more conservatives wanting to stay in power than anyone ever predicted, etc

I think there's a slim chance he gets it close enough that a stacked Supreme Court hands him the election. Check out the awful ruling Kavanaugh wrote on Wisconsin ballots. He cited research that said the exact opposite of his ruling and walked the GOP line in his statements. It's laying the ground work to stop ballot counting.

Yeah I do think he goes to the Supreme Court no matter how much he loses by. But more of what I was asking here is that basically everyone who wants Biden to win wrong about how many people are going to vote for Trumo?

And yes Kavanaugh should be ashamed he wrote that

The way Nate Silver put it:

Biden is up by about 5 points in the tipping point state (PA)

2 of the last 10 elections have had polling errors > 5 points

There's a 50/50 chance that that polling error could go Trump's way.

So half of a 20% chance is a 10% chance.

So I think that it is more likely than not that Biden will win.

But 10% is a decent chance.

Flip a coin three times. If you get three heads in a row, you've done it. Put in those terms, it does not seem that unlikely.

After an hour and a half in line, my wife and I voted. So glad to have gotten it done. I gave up on the idea it was ever going to get faster. Three weeks in, it hasn't.

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Kavanaugh proved the "originalism" and "federalist" crap they spew is complete nonsense. They don't believe in any of that shit.

Technically Kavanaugh never believed in that stuff. He's always been of the imperial Presidency mindset (which is why he appealed so much to Trump).

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It's absurd how hard it is to vote in such a supposedly great Democracy. Doubly ridiculous that one of our two parties is constantly trying to only make it harder, and frustrating that it somehow serves to convince GOP true believers that they are the repressed & silent majority.

This is where I think we should be more like the French and start having general strikes.

Yeah, if we had sane leadership I would think this pandemic would have been the perfect time to implement some kind of national vote-by-mail mandate, but somehow we're going to come out of this extended election crisis having only made the system a little bit worse.


The multitude of folks' stories waiting hours in bad weather are so frustrating (though also inspiring). I've trumpeted a dozen times that I live in Oregon, which has been voting by mail since last millennium, and it took me 10 seconds to vote, only because I chose to drop off my ballot at the nearby election office and someone walked up to the drop-box right before me.

TBH I can’t get my head around how difficult people seem to have made it to vote over there

It depends on whether your state is competitive in presidential elections or not, I think. My state is is not, I vote every election - usually a couple a year - and I've never waited in a line. Less than 5 minutes in and out. And this is one of 2 or 3 fastest growing states in the country. It's not difficult, unless there's an effort to suppress.

You have to suppress if your ideas are wildly unpopular.

The USPS delays are as bad as they've been all year.

Shocking that's how things are working out.

I wasn't thinking and I ordered some eBay stuff last week and it's still not here yet

SI

It is nuts. Closed on a house on 9/30. Put in an address forward the next day. We have received 1 piece of forwarded mail.

Th GOP is going to actively kneecap the USPS and then use the resulting inefficiencies as an excuse to tear it down entirely.

I've had something in transit since the 17th. It was shipped out on the 7th.

It was a priority package.

S&P down ~2% again.
COVID cases setting records.

The timing really isn't working out so good for the GOP.

They aren't even competent enough to artificially pump things up in October.

You know thing are bad when you can't even construct a Potemkin Village for 2 weeks.

My brain ignored the letters you put and shouted "POKEMON VILLAGE!" into my head.

Getting too anxious leading up to this election. It sucks because I never cared so much before.

If Trump wins, I am going to have to disconnect from the world except video games and softball tournaments.

I won't want to hear about all of the crazy shit he's doing after winning re-election.

And given how crazy softball is, that's saying something, lol.

Trump's gonna lose because he surrendered to the virus.

Biden was up 56-39 overall in that Washington Post Wisconsin poll. Not sure I buy that but there's another poll from Marquette law school coming out today to compare.

How to rig an election.

�� New USPS data filed in federal court this morning.

On-time first-class mail delivery 10/27 in:
- Philadelphia, 43.0%
- Detroit, 52.6%
- Northern Ohio, 56.0%
- Lakeland (Wisconsin), 60.7%
- South Florida, 62.9%

Ballot mail 10/27:
- Inbound, 95.1%
- Outbound, 89.0%

— Jacob Bogage (@jacobbogage) October 28, 2020

The hope is that word got out and people started using drop boxes and in person.

Of all of Trump's mistakes, loudly announcing "I'M GONNA BLOCK THE MAIL" instead of just doing it may be his biggest.

Looks like they are blocking it. The lawsuit posts the delivery rates in many areas and it is clear that there are certain areas they are drastically slowing the mail down to.

PA had no drop boxes that I could figure out. It was either go to the courthouse for some stupid version of early voting or it was mail in.

Pennsylvania only really comes into play if we don't have a winner on Nov. 3, right?

If Biden wins FL on Nov. 3 it's over.

Let's hope we don't get to the point of needing Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is the most important state. Florida is going to be a mess regardless.

Trump's chances of winning are something like 2% if he loses Pennsylvania while Biden would still have a 55% chance of winning if he loses it.

If Pennsylvania or Florida go to Biden the election is pretty much over and Biden has a lead just large enough to overcome a 2016 level polling error in Pennsylvania.

Biden has a number of reasonable paths to victory--some that don't include PA. Here's on where he loses PA (85% win per 538), FL (61), GA (50), IA (50), and AZ (66), but still wins.




If he loses PA, I think he's fine as long as he wins NC. He has to lose both of those to be in serious trouble imho.

Yeah, that's my take as well. If Biden gets NC/MI/WI, it's going to be difficult for Trump to win. If he gets FL or PA, he might get north of 350.

How likely is it that he wins NC though? I feel like that state has been teetering on the edge of going full blown blue like Virginia has for a few years now. But it was a fairly solid Trump state, so I feel like they're teasing me.

538 says 50.5% Biden, 48.8% Trump. So just north of a coin-flip basically, a very real possibility.

Virginia had the fast-growing DC suburbs to push it rapidly blue.

NC does not have that, so if it goes blue, it might be more of the Colorado route where it lives as purple for a while.