It is, but it also doesn't mean that the entire 'gotcha' concept is fair. It's not. I hate those. I couldn't make it through the first movie because it was so cringeworthy and making fun of people in bad situations felt wrong to me. There are elements that are fair, but not a full set up. The people I know who get the most excited for those things just aren't comfortable playing on an even playing field.

Let's really break this down a bit, not that I want to defend Rudy. He was having an interview with a young woman and other people in a hotel suite. She started hitting on him. She sent everyone out of the room. She directed him to a back room to remove his mic. She seemed to have been the one to undo his pants and push him back on the bed as she did so. In the end, if they were doing more it was two consenting adults, but he was very obviously being friendly but not overly grabby or anything. She was being very touchy/grabby.

This was all supposed to be a funny setup, and it was. Nothing really untoward happened.

IMO if you have access to the POTUS and presumably a wealth of info about the POTUS you shouldn't be putting yourself in that position.

I bet she was paid a fortune to go through all that.

I mean, we know that Rudy is working with Russian intelligence through Derkach. He was a huge risk before Borat.

Took a different way to avoid some construction and saw a Jorgensen sign. It’s all on the table in 2020.

Here in Orange County, NY, I can't imagine it's really about voter suppression, but lines are crazy today. We went to two different locations, in Newburgh it was 3.5 hours and in Montgomery, it was at least 2. I know there's crazy turnout this ear, but it's an embarrassment that our voting system makes it so difficult to cast a ballot.

Joe Biden is coming to campaign in Georgia on Tuesday. Other than for a quick fundraiser, I can't think of the last time a Democratic presidential candidate has come to Georgia this late on the race.

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Agreed. As long as Rudy wasn't told before the interview that she was supposed to be 15, there's just nothing here that bothers me in the slightest.

Rudy's got a thing for being surrounded by young women. His Com person is, or at least was, a college student. Another young woman on his staff was a HS student last year. It's not criminal, but it's gross.

I don't expect it, but 2 Georgia Senate seats would look really nice in blue

SI

Whatever happened to Bloomberg promising to drop a bunch of money into the race?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/mee...846#blogHeader

He gave it to the DNC so they could organize the best places to put it

He's also putting a ton of money into F through an independent group. It's far from the 1 bil he promised, but he's supposedly spending well over 100 mil total.

He also raised about $16M to pay felon fines in Florida so they could vote (since poll taxes and all)

Bloomberg Adds $16 Million To A Fund That Helps Florida Felons Get Chance To Vote : NPR

SI

It's all about timing. Just went to the same location, and this happened...

Sunday morning at 9 AM when it’s pouring rain is the best time to vote. 😂😂😂 No line at all. Just walked right in, had my ballot in about 90 seconds, and voted. #2020election #YourVoteCountsNC pic.twitter.com/oA2m6BEoOp

— Ben Lewis (@benelou) October 25, 2020

Well done Ben! Curious did you see any Trump "poll watchers" or cops?

No one at all, but this morning isn’t exactly a litmus test. It’s the chilliest morning we’ve had in a couple of weeks or so, and it has been pouring rain since around 7am. There was no one lounging around outside at all, and as I walked up, there was no one else in the parking lot. No one walking up. No one leaving. Total ghost town. No cops inside that I noticed. No wait at all. More poll workers than voters. The location is only about eight minutes from our house, so I went, voted, went home, and then my wife also went and voted while I stayed with the kiddos, and she said her experience was the same. She couldn’t have been happier that she just left immediately when she saw that huge line past week.

I had a dream that the 538 projection had Biden down to 54% overnight.

I think I'm ready for this election to be over.

Cool!

It's a little skewed b/c most of my MAGA friends and family are from Louisiana/Texas, but the Facebook campaigning is leaning heavily on the "Biden wants to ban all petroleum and petroleum-based products, and that's bad" idea.

It was a debate gaff. And they are jumping on it.

Not sure how much it resonates outside of the base, but the base is all in on it.

I mean MAGA people on Facebook are saying Biden wants to ban private insurance, so I wouldn't take what MAGA folks are saying all that seriously (in terms of the truth or how it resonates)

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The past few days it started to creep back in the other direction. I don't need that stress

Every time I've checked it, 87%. Pennsylvania's numbers are looking bluer all the time and that's been the 'tipping point' state for some while now. Iowa and Georgia don't look as good as they did a week ago, and it might only be 90% instead of 95% or whatever on election night, but I'm still as confident as one can be for an election in modern polarized America.

Kamala Harris is going to Texas on Friday. They must be confident about the upper midwest.

Just voted. Took about an hour total.

Speaking of how good AOC is...

AOC on Biden's mixed messages about a fracking ban: "It does not bother me ... I have a very strong position on fracking ... however, that is my view ... It will be a privilege to lobby him should we win the White House, but we need to focus on winning the White House first." pic.twitter.com/U9NxHXBC9g

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2020

I was just reading her opponent has raised $10 million in race he has no hope of winning. I wonder how many that have donated know anything about him.

so many judge ovals to fill in :(

Six for me, I think.

There's a real chance at flipping the Texas House and the redistricting that would entail. There's a Senate race here but Cornyn will probably win that comfortably. That said, he's been running ads during football and baseball and about half he's talking about being bipartisan so his internal numbers must be worrying him. I mean, he's the #2 GOP Senator and he's tacking to the middle. In Texas?

SI

I just saw that more 65+ African-Americans have already voted in Georgia than in all of 2016.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN27A0TA

Even Putin sees the writing on the wall as he dismisses his old chew toy.

this stat breaks my brain..."than in all of 2016"? what does that mean?

think i had like 15

meaning that not only has the vote total of that particular cross tab (65+ and African-American) beaten 2016's early voting total with 9 ish days left till election day, they have cast more votes then 65+/A-A TOTAL in that election (between early voting and election day)

Yeah, what Fozzie said.

Watched the 60 Minutes interviews. Trump came off looking like a baby, but was probably wise to release the tape (and break the story) going into the weekend so that it didn’t dominate the Monday morning cycle. There were no tough questions that he shouldn’t have a canned answer for at this point and he was especially thin skinned from the start. Missed opportunity for him to look presidential.

I thought Biden handled tough questions very well (gave a nice answer on court packing, dismissed the thought that he is in mental decline, and acknowledged his age in a nice way, I thought). He had very good answers and nonverbals, in my opinion.

Harris didn’t look great and sort of inappropriately laughed at times (looked bad in contrast with Norah O’Donnell looking quite serious. Probably nerves. She gave some warm answers and was shaky on tougher questions, in my opinion.

Pence stuck to the script and looked alright, given that he has to tote water for Trump and the coronavirus mistakes. Got to give him credit for staying loyal and keeping in line.

Saturday morning was the first weekend day for in- person early voting for my bluish Ohio County. We arrived at 7:15 and were 8th in line for the 8 AM opening. We were done by 8:10.

By the time we left, the line was out the building, out a walkway, into the parking garage and around it. 300-500 people I'm guessing. It's crazy

One thought on all of the new voters. I think a decent portion could be people who moved from one state to another. My guess is that information on who voted is state specific. I'm wondering in some areas if is isn't precinct specifc? Not sure it matters, but from a data perspective it might be less important.

Now the shear number of voters in various demographic groups is important as that gets to the make-up of the electorate.

It shows just how lazy he is. He can't even be bothered to have his team prepare canned answers for him to memorize.

I went to vote today right after lunchtime. I thought it was a good setup safety wise. All of the poll workers were wearing masks and gloves. There were disposable swab sticks for the purpose of signing the voting statement digitally. Even the "I voted" stickers were separated so you just has to grab one for yourself if you wanted one. There were only three people in the room where I voted and the whole process took about 10 minutes tops. My wife dropped her mail in ballot off last Monday.

Man charged in burning of ballot box, Boston police say

Good riddance, I hope he gets several years at least in prison.

This week we have two early voting precincts set up in our county. The wait times are still at over an hour at both.

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I was in and out in about 5 minutes last Thursday in my county. But Texas has an extra week of early voting this year and we're already at 90% of how many voted in 2016. Not 90% of how many voted in early voting, 90% of voting period. And we haven't had election day yet. To be fair, in 2016, something like 70% of people early voted.

EDIT: More notes:

https://www.brazoriacountyclerk.net/...cument?id=1466
In 2016, 121K voted: 94K early, 5K absentee, 22K election day.

https://www.brazoriacountyclerk.net/...cument?id=6149
So far this year: 101K early, 9K absentee, 1 week of early voting and election day still to come

SI

I keep seeing facebook ads so by saying ZOMG Trump leading florida by 2! Don't believe the pundits! Michigan is going Republican...etc. I gotta think these are all just ads trying to prompt more donations...right? RIGHT???

Yup.

There are risks right now for Biden: Polling errors and the GOP stealing the election. He currently leads in the 538 tipping point state (PA) by five points, which is on the bleeding edge of polling errors, but it is not inconceivable. Which is why they give Trump ~10% chance of winning. That's mostly accommodating polling error.

But, as Nate Silver, Harry Enten, etc. were saying on Twitter today, the only "good" numbers for Trump right now are sketchy GOP-affiliated pollsters. Trump has not gained ground with the real pollsters. And the election is happening right now. It is getting too late for him to really be able to change course.

If the numbers are right (or even remotely close), Biden will win.

If I'm a Democrat PAC, I might fund those ads on FB just to combat pockets of blue voter apathy.

It's like the Titanic trying to change course with it's too-small rudder.

"If the numbers turn out to be wrong, if Donald Trump is right and these pollsters are wrong about this race then people like me are going to have to find a new profession." - Frank Luntz 10/23/2000