OT: Road to the 2003 Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

Clipped from BRISnet.com, full article here:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...ame&header=off

(BRIS makes mention of every horse's sire in parentheses, just in case the convention is new to you)

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ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

JANUARY 29

by James Scully

There was only one graded event, the LeComte S. (G3), for three-year-olds over Super Bowl weekend. Like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, SAINTLY LOOK (Saintly Ballado) dominated his rivals at Fair Grounds.

. . .


As for Saintly Look, he made his two-turn debut in the one-mile LeComte and rolled to an easy 2 3/4-length score over pacesetter CALL ME LEFTY (Aggie Southpaw). The Dallas Stewart-trained colt earned a 96 BRIS Speed rating and has now won three of his last four starts, including the Sugar Bowl S. in his final start at two.

Owner Bill Carl tried to sell Saintly Look at two different sales, but the dark bay failed to meet his reserve each time. Now a multiple stakes winner, Saintly Look is worth a considerable amount as a promising Kentucky Derby (G1) candidate.

MOST FEARED (Commanchero) was favored at 8-5 but raced wide before spitting the bit in a 10th-place finish. Grade 3 winner LONE STAR SKY (Conquistador Cielo) also didn't fire, finishing seventh. The former appeared capable of much better based on his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2).

Trainer Bob Baffert made headlines last week by announcing that Mike Smith was off both champion VINDICATION (Seattle Slew) and the filly COMPOSURE (Touch Gold). Baffert didn't give any reason for the split with Smith. He named Jerry Bailey to ride both.

Bailey is also the rider of EMPIRE MAKER (Unbridled) and now has the mount on two of the leading Kentucky Derby (G1) candidates, but it's not a disadvantage to have too many Triple Crown contenders early in the season. A two-time Derby winner, Bailey was in a similar spot last year as the rider of both Repent (Louis Quatorze) and Siphonic, and neither made the Derby.

TOCCET (Awesome Again) has been sidelined due to ankle trouble. He'll apparently need at least 30 days of rest and will miss both the Fountain of Youth S. (G1) and Florida Derby (G1), but the multiple Grade 1 winner could still return for the Wood Memorial S. (G1) on April 12 and then go right to the Derby.

Owner Daniel Borislow and trainer John Scanlan both expressed confidence that Toccet would have enough bottom to win the Derby off only one prep race this year, but history doesn't support that scenario. As Point Given showed in 2001 (with only two preps that year beforehand), any horse with less than three preps at three is a golden bet-against opportunity at Churchill Downs. Only once in the last 50 years has a horse had two preps and still won the Derby (Sunny's Halo in 1983 had two). It's one of the strongest trends.

[QuikSand]

One very quick observation:

Mike Smith being taken off any good horse is good news for that horse. Bailey can't hurt, either.

[rkmsuf]

Smith has been in a terrible slump at SA.

In a totally unrelated matter but pertaining to jockeys, check out former Northern CA and NY rider Jason Lumpkins stats from Turfway so far this year. Total dominance.

Back to the Triple Crown...

Here's another good link to Derby watch info:

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=13802

Two thoughts, one is Bailey is the best in the business so I'd want him also...two I'm tired of Toccet and all the baloney.

A couple that will prove to be very interesting are Hold That Tiger from across the pond with Adian O'Brien and Sky Mesa.

Hold That Tiger made an eye popping move in the Breeder's Cup and Sky Mesa missed it entirely. Although I would have bet against Sky Mesa enthusiastically in the Juvinelle I find his Derby prospects with John Ward promising if sound.