South Korean military ship sunk by torpedo possibly launched by North Korea.....

[Airhog]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if North Korea's military is as scary as advertised. Sure, the numbers of troops, etc, is impressive, but the country is an economic catastrophe. Nothing works.

All they need are rifles for their troops

[molson]

Originally Posted by Airhog

All they need are rifles for their troops

Well, and food. And shoes would be nice. And bullets. And electricity. And some means to transport troops.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

until either a) the whole country destabilizes and SK can invade and reunite the country

Given the issues that W Germany had taking on E Germany, I'm not sure whether rational people in SK would really want to try to rebuild a country that largely seems to be a cross between medieval & communist bloc conditions. Nice enough in theory but the practical reality might well be an entirely different matter.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by molson

Well, and food. And shoes would be nice. And bullets. And electricity. And some means to transport troops.

I'm pretty sure in Vietnam they only needed two of the things mentioned in your list above (food & bullets).

[molson]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm pretty sure in Vietnam they only needed two of the things mentioned in your list above (food & bullets).

True, but I think (North) Vietnam had much more functioning government/infrastructure, and a much more stable food supply, than North Korea does right now.

And of course, any hostilities against North Korea would be of a different sort than they were in Vietnam. And the North Koreans aren't tied to their government by religion, or really anything.

I know there was a silly sentiment that Iraqi citizens would "greet us in the streets", but I think we'd actually be dealing with a much more sympathetic populace, and even possibly opposing military, than any other military situation I can think of.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if North Korea's military is as scary as advertised. Sure, the numbers of troops, etc, is impressive, but the country is an economic catastrophe. Nothing works.

I've wondered this myself.

One of these days, the NK will be free and they'll face reality ... and cry for the lost generations.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Given the issues that W Germany had taking on E Germany, I'm not sure whether rational people in SK would really want to try to rebuild a country that largely seems to be a cross between medieval & communist bloc conditions. Nice enough in theory but the practical reality might well be an entirely different matter.

Oh, they very much do. This is thinking way-long term; they believe in the one Korea, and believe any North Korean nuke will eventually be a "Korean" nuke.

[Edward64]

Just heard on a news channel (I think abc) that it was an accident.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You guys are forgetting how close Seoul is to the border. Maybe 10-15 miles?

I'm actually pretty sure NK could shell Seoul from the border just with regular artillery. Further, IIRC, most military analysis believe there's little the U.S. & SK could do to stop an initial, full-on invasion with the amount of manpower on the ground right now and the size of NK's standing army.

Ok, I was an -E3-Sentry US Air Force intel officer (O3)though over a decade back in Korea I see nothing has changed from my sources in the military and in Korea. We must remember that NK constantly screws with the US and SK governments in all sorts of manners knowing one key fact. The US has 85000-100000+ US military and their families along with US expat civilians working living with 20 miles of NK artillery. Also, if NK was to go on the offensive first we would have some real difficulties. First off, it has been long known through intelligence gathered through human intel. sources including defectors that the NK military has 120000 commandos that have been training for the last 20-30 years to infiltrate behind our lines via a fleet of special made radar evading 20,000 wooden biplanes/gliders (I shit you not). there mission would be to kill the Air Force Pilots at Osan AB and Kunsan AB as well as try to damage/destroy our runways and planes along with killing anyone near the airfields mechanics, fuelers, ammo troops etc. hitting our soft underbelly something they picked up from the North Viet Cong no doubt.

The NKs know they could not win an Air/Navy war and so want to force us to fight on our on terms. Anyone who even mentions the nuclear option has no knowledge of this theater since that would only be an option of last resort since the fallout would have extremely adverse affects on South Korea with the prevailing winds in Korea normally blowing southeasterly. Once the NKs took out the Air Force we would have a toe to toe fight in urban areas where our tanks in Korea at least are still not as effective in urban settings due to their size as opposed to some of the newer vehicles like the Stryker units and more maneuverable tanks coming out recently. The South Korean populace would be of little to no help to us and with there being many sympathizers and actually estimates are that there are 10000-20000 sleeper agents among the student populations these days . Also the expectations are that as much as 20-35% of the South Korean
military would defect with another 25-35% defecting shortly after the NKs ground forces enter the Seoul corridor. Those numbers I think may be far lower since Koreans have long throught of the US military in Korea as the ones that should and would do the fighting even among the young military conscription age population.

By the time our heavy bombers B52S an d B1Bs arrived from Guam and the US the North Koreans would certainly occupy Seoul and most of the western coast including Inchon down to Kwangju.

So what would be the best course of action:
1-Do not over react. A guy punches you in the face don't cut his head off with a sword.
2-Longterm solution is in the next five years or sooner pull our military (90%) out of SK and give them what they need through selling them equipment not technology since they can not be trusted with not giving to the NKs to us eagainst us.
3-Once we have our folks out of harms way we force the SKs to be more harsh diplomatically, socially, culturally with their "brothers" in the North our we can just turn the place into a parking lot or
4-Further weaponize the Japanese (China would not like this and would roll right over on the North.

Just my two cents.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You guys are forgetting how close Seoul is to the border. Maybe 10-15 miles?

I'm actually pretty sure NK could shell Seoul from the border just with regular artillery. Further, IIRC, most military analysis believe there's little the U.S. & SK could do to stop an initial, full-on invasion with the amount of manpower on the ground right now and the size of NK's standing army.

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Oh, they very much do. This is thinking way-long term; they believe in the one Korea, and believe any North Korean nuke will eventually be a "Korean" nuke.

Yes they sure do. My wife is South Korean and after we "discussed" this subject I will be sleeping with one eye open.

[Cringer]

This could change the world? So it might actually end the Korean War?

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Galaril

there mission would be to kill the Air Force Pilots at...Kunsan AB as well as try to damage/destroy our runways and planes along with killing anyone near the airfields mechanics, fuelers, ammo troops etc. hitting our soft underbelly something they picked up from the North Viet Cong no doubt.

Hey now! Don't fuck with the Wolf Pack!!!

If any attack (ground based) were to happen, it would be more likely during the winter from my understanding. But, those pesky North Koreans are pretty good tunnelers.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Hey now! Don't fuck with the Wolf Pack!!!

If any attack (ground based) were to happen, it would be more likely during the winter from my understanding. But, those pesky North Koreans are pretty good tunnelers.

Yes, the Wolpack down there is badass. I spent three years at Osan living in the lap of luxury

[RainMaker]

Seems like they still don't know, or aren't saying what took down the ship. Seemed to be downplaying any NK involvement although that may be due to the fact their dollar and stocks dropped dramatically after initial reports.

Hasn't the NK threats been just to get more money out of us in aid?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Seems like they still don't know, or aren't saying what took down the ship. Seemed to be downplaying any NK involvement although that may be due to the fact their dollar and stocks dropped dramatically after initial reports.

Hasn't the NK threats been just to get more money out of us in aid?

Pretty much yes. The regime up there is basically a bunch of extortionists.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Yes, the Wolpack down there is badass. I spent three years at Osan living in the lap of luxury

Had a lot of fun the year I was at Kunsan. You guys definitely had it better up there in Osan and it wasn't too bad of a bus drive to Seoul from there either.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Hasn't the NK threats been just to get more money out of us in aid?

Apologies for getting all "conspiracy theory" about this...but given my unending distrust of any government...my concern is that NK actually did do this for money and that the SK's & US are calling it an accident due to the obvious implications an "attack" would have.

Obviously I dont know what happened but I think there has to be more to this story than just "NK ship cruises by, SK ship sinks due to an 'accidental' hole in the ship".

[JohnnyBGood]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

Apologies for getting all "conspiracy theory" about this...but given my unending distrust of any government...my concern is that NK actually did do this for money and that the SK's & US are calling it an accident due to the obvious implications an "attack" would have.

Obviously I dont know what happened but I think there has to be more to this story than just "NK ship cruises by, SK ship sinks due to an 'accidental' hole in the ship".

And don't forget the artillery exchange... with a "flock of birds." Yea, OK. Clearly a cover up.

Baengnyeong residents had reported hearing gunfire at sea shortly after the Cheonan sank. South Korean officials later confirmed that on of their ships had fired on a radar contact that turned out to be a flock of birds.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

Apologies for getting all "conspiracy theory" about this...but given my unending distrust of any government...my concern is that NK actually did do this for money and that the SK's & US are calling it an accident due to the obvious implications an "attack" would have.

Obviously I dont know what happened but I think there has to be more to this story than just "NK ship cruises by, SK ship sinks due to an 'accidental' hole in the ship".

Actually I am sure this is correct at least as far as what is going on with the NK and SK. I am alittle less willing to say the US is covering it up but they very possibly could be. It is actually ridiculous for someone to joke this is not what is happening.

[JPhillips]

Assuming the explosion was a result of a torpedo it's still going to be very difficult to determine if this came from the central authorities or if it was a rouge captain. I'm not sure command and control is that great in the NK navy.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Actually I am sure this is correct at least as far as what is going on with the NK and SK. I am alittle less willing to say the US is covering it up but they very possibly could be. It is actually ridiculous for someone to joke this is not what is happening.

I don't have your experience or perspective of this region, but it's amazing to me the thinking that South Korea would cover up the murder of dozens of its military personal (I'm not doubting it, I'm just saying it amazes me.)

Wouldn't such things give South Korea/U.S/U.N. international support to take things to the next level (whether a military response or not)? How do you build a case later for some kind of intervention when you deny their acts of war at the time? How could they expect anyone to believe them if North Korea later does perform some kind of strike that the U.S/South Korea then choose to acknowledge?

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by molson

Wouldn't such things give South Korea/U.S/U.N. international support to take things to the next level (whether a military response or not)? How do you build a case later for some kind of intervention when you deny their acts of war at the time? How could they expect anyone to believe them if North Korea later does perform some kind of strike that the U.S/South Korea then choose to acknowledge?

This is where I was going with it. Both in the sense that you have to build the case for "justifiable" military response to the next provocation (if you believe it to be on the table)...as well as acknowledging that this is an unacceptable way to "negotiate" and that there should be deterrance for acts of war.

[Bisbo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Assuming the explosion was a result of a torpedo it's still going to be very difficult to determine if this came from the central authorities or if it was a rouge captain.

NK must have a "don't ask, don't tell" policy too.

[molson]

Stole this from the earth day thread

This is the North Korea everybody's all afraid of? This is the North Korea that we need to (in theory) cover up the murders of dozens for?

I think their propaganda, and their government "let's make everyone all scared of us" department is the only thing that works in that shithole country.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by molson

I know there was a silly sentiment that Iraqi citizens would "greet us in the streets", but I think we'd actually be dealing with a much more sympathetic populace, and even possibly opposing military, than any other military situation I can think of.

That's not my understanding. The NK regime has effectively isolated this populace for almost 50 years and subjected them to comprehensive propaganda. There's plenty of evidence from people who have managed to get real accounts out of NK that this is easily the most deluded populace on the planet.

Also, thanks to Galaril for backing up my assertions.

IMO, the only effectively strategy for us, long-term, is to find a way to make this China's problem. NK effectively relies completely on China, and China are more than happy to have NK be a problem for the U.S. and its allies, so some sort of creative way (no, I don't have a good idea) to switch this around would be great.

This, by the way, is the main reason why I don't expect NK to actually use a nuke unprovoked on anyone else - they know it's pretty much the only thing the Chinese couldn't ignore and continue to support them on. I mean, China probably wouldn't even overly chastise NK for a full-scale invasion of SK....

Originally Posted by molson

I think their propaganda, and their government "let's make everyone all scared of us" department is the only thing that works in that shithole country.

So what's your solution?

[gstelmack]

The more I read in this thread, the more I am reminded of the Larry Bond novel "Red Pheonix" and how little has changed.

[molson]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

So what's your solution?

Depends what problem we're talking about.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by molson

Depends what problem we're talking about.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

That's not my understanding. The NK regime has effectively isolated this populace for almost 50 years and subjected them to comprehensive propaganda. There's plenty of evidence from people who have managed to get real accounts out of NK that this is easily the most deluded populace on the planet.

Also, thanks to Galaril for backing up my assertions.

IMO, the only effectively strategy for us, long-term, is to find a way to make this China's problem. NK effectively relies completely on China, and China are more than happy to have NK be a problem for the U.S. and its allies, so some sort of creative way (no, I don't have a good idea) to switch this around would be great.

This, by the way, is the main reason why I don't expect NK to actually use a nuke unprovoked on anyone else - they know it's pretty much the only thing the Chinese couldn't ignore and continue to support them on. I mean, China probably wouldn't even overly chastise NK for a full-scale invasion of SK....



So what's your solution?

Ding-ding-ding you win. that is the only longterm solution is fro China to take care of this preferably through absorbing NK which I believe in the next 100 years or so will happen and possibly SK eventually as well. Having married into Korean culture they have a ton more respect and admiration for China than the west and have no issue giving up some personal freedom for the group which is asian traditional culture anyways. My wife's family always has thought though we get along real well that I am a self-centered individualistic jackass. Pretty accurate actually

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

The more I read in this thread, the more I am reminded of the Larry Bond novel "Red Pheonix" and how little has changed.

Very true.

[Greyroofoo]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63L08W20100422

[fantom1979]

NKorea warns of war if punished for ship sinking


NKorea warns of war if punished for ship sinking - Yahoo! News

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea said Thursday that South Korea fabricated evidence implicating the North in a torpedo attack in order to pick on the North and any attempt at retaliating for the warship's sinking would be answered with "all-out war."


South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the attack after a multinational investigation issued its long-awaited results Thursday, concluding the North fired a torpedo that sank the Cheonan navy ship March 26 near the Koreas' tense sea border.


"If the (South Korean) enemies try to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us .... we will answer to this with all-out war," Col. Pak In Ho of North Korea's navy told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.


An international civilian-military investigation team said evidence overwhelmingly proves a North Korean submarine fired a homing torpedo that caused a massive underwater blast that tore the Cheonan apart. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued from the frigid Yellow Sea, but 46 perished in the South's worst military disaster since the Korean War.


Since the 1950-53 war on the Korean peninsula ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty, the Koreas remain locked in a state of war and divided by the world's most heavily armed border.


The truce prevents Seoul from waging a unilateral military attack.


However, South Korea and the U.S., which has 28,500 troops on the peninsula, could hold joint military exercises in a show of force, said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.


South Korean and U.S. officials also said they are considering a variety of options in response to the warship's sinking, ranging from U.N. Security Council action to additional U.S. penalties.


The exchange of war rhetoric raised tensions, but the isolated communist regime — already under international pressure to cease its nuclear weapons program — often warns of dire consequences against South Korea or Washington for any punitive steps against it. Its large but decrepit military would be no match for U.S. and Korean forces.

The impoverished country is already chafing from international sanctions tightened last year in the wake of widely condemned nuclear and missile tests. U.N. sanctions currently block funding to certain officials and companies, while North Korea is barred from exporting weapons and countries are authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying illicit cargo.


South Korea "will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings through strong international cooperation," Lee said during a call with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, the presidential office said. Lee convened an emergency meeting for Friday.


The White House called the sinking an unacceptable "act of aggression" that violates international law and the 1953 truce. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared his support for South Korea, calling North Korea's actions "inexcusable."


China, North Korea's traditional ally, called the sinking of the naval ship "unfortunate" but stopped short of backing Seoul.


Pyongyang continued its steadfast denials of involvement in the sinking.

[JPhillips]

This is an impossible situation for SK. They can't let this go without any consequences, but a full out war with NK would be a disaster.

[fantom1979]

The truce prevents Seoul from waging a unilateral military attack.

Wouldn't an attack by North Korea on a South Korean warship effectively end the truce? Why would South Korea be bound by an agreement that the North is not adhering to? Statements like this puzzle me.

[DaddyTorgo]

I understand that NKorea has a ton of people, and their proximity to Seoul is worrisome. But do they really have the infrastructure, in terms of guns/bullets/gasoline to effectively utilize their giant army?

Not saying it wouldn't be ugly, but I guess I don't fall into the "we can't win a war with NKorea" camp. Also, wouldn't a surgical strike on Pyongyang to eliminate senior leadership (Supreme Leader & Army generals) result in a significant power vacumn into which other countries (say France or something) could then pour in, offering to help the poor impovrished people of NKorea (and yes I've seen the videos, I know how they've been brainwashed since birth).

I guess I just don't see how we couldn't beat the snot out of them.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

Wouldn't an attack by North Korea on a South Korean warship effectively end the truce? Why would South Korea be bound by an agreement that the North is not adhering to? Statements like this puzzle me.

I think it means that the US would no longer be bound by the treaty to protect SK. So SK can go, but they might be going alone.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I understand that NKorea has a ton of people, and their proximity to Seoul is worrisome. But do they really have the infrastructure, in terms of guns/bullets/gasoline to effectively utilize their giant army?

Yes. Mainly because they don't really have all that far to go to overrun South Korea really quickly.

Now of course they'd have trouble holding South Korea, but they know such a war would devolve into insurgent urban warfare and the U.S. really doesn't want to have to do that again.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I understand that NKorea has a ton of people, and their proximity to Seoul is worrisome. But do they really have the infrastructure, in terms of guns/bullets/gasoline to effectively utilize their giant army?

Not saying it wouldn't be ugly, but I guess I don't fall into the "we can't win a war with NKorea" camp. Also, wouldn't a surgical strike on Pyongyang to eliminate senior leadership (Supreme Leader & Army generals) result in a significant power vacumn into which other countries (say France or something) could then pour in, offering to help the poor impovrished people of NKorea (and yes I've seen the videos, I know how they've been brainwashed since birth).

I guess I just don't see how we couldn't beat the snot out of them.

The American public can barely stomach a war in Afghanistan and Iraq where the governments are friendly to us, most of the country isn't trying to kill us and the numbers of dead soldiers are in the hundreds per year. There is no way in a million years they are going to go for Vietnam mk II. Like Flere said, it would just degenerate into horrible guerilla warfare plus the Chinese wildcard and the risk that whatever unconventional weapons NK might have get fired on our troops. Seems to me South Korea is on their own on this one.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm just tired of NKorea. And I feel for the poor people there.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - I think there is no doubt we could and would win that war (as long as China STFO) but I also think it would be uglier than you are suggesting and it would be unbelievably unpopular.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah...I guess. Like I said, I'm just tired of them, and ready for them to be over.

[molson]

Maybe the best thing that can happen is North Korea invading South Korea. Then the whole world is involved and you have a Gulf War I scenerio.

But N. Korea seems content to just talk big every so often.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Just curious. At what point do we get that 'oh crap, they're serious' feeling with North Korea. They're literally just a stone's throw away from Seoul. We often don't take their threats and actions very seriously because they are usually just moves to secure more aid. I get the feeling that nothing more than outright provocation would get our attention. And by then, it will likely be too late. I'm honestly surprised that the naval incident hasn't caused more issues to this point.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Just curious. At what point do we get that 'oh crap, they're serious' feeling with North Korea.

Probably when they start lobbing artillery shells at Seoul. Yes, that late in the game.

I hate to say this, but it's probably a good scenario for the US if NK was to invade, because of the damage it would cause to China's standing as a world power. NK is their pet, and if they're shown to not be able to control their pet, then....

[Rizon]

Yeah, the Chinese can't control their pet. They are also very bad drivers.

[molson]

Ya, and at some point, when North Korea won't stop pooping in your yard, you have to say something to China.

[lighthousekeeper]

the US State Department's official response to some NK Col. talking big again:

[Galaxy]

What are the chances of something breaking out?

Also, how many troops does the US have stationed in South Korea and Japan?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

What are the chances of something breaking out?

Also, how many troops does the US have stationed in South Korea and Japan?

I don't think the chances are very good of anything breaking out right now. North Korea likes to keep its name in the headlines. The latest incident is bigger than usual, but I don't think North Korea actually wants to go to war.

No idea as to troop numbers, but I know an American serving in Okinawa and there's a pretty heavy military presence there at least.

[JediKooter]

So wonely, I'm so wonely...