06-04-2004, 09:22 AM | #1 | ||
Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: On Lake Harriet
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OT--Belmont
I was remembering this post from last year's Preakness thread:
http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...8&postcount=47 I'm wondering if all of the hype around SMARTY JONES, who is at 2-5 right now, has the possibility of creating a minus pool and a sure thing bet. I wonder if fewer people will bet SJ to show or across the board because the fashionable thing to do will be to buy a SJ "win" ticket. As an aside, Hollywood Park is giving away $2 SJ win tickets to the first 10,000 who enter the gates Saturday. |
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06-04-2004, 09:27 AM | #2 |
FOFC's Elected Representative
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My wife bet on him from the Kentuck Derby. I think the odds were around 6-1 on brisbet.com. Anyway she won over 100 dollars on that win ticket.
Last week, the same bet netted her almost .20 cents on the dollar bet. This week, other than to to say she had him from day one and has all three win tickets, there is no money to be made. Oh yea, while I had spent countless hours looking over the forms before the Kentucky Derby, she casually picked the horse because, "I like it's name." I don't know how many women I have seen do this with success. /throws racing form in the trash
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
06-04-2004, 09:27 AM | #3 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I do think that SMARTY JONES will go off as a 1-9 favorite, but I don't know about the possibility of a minus pool. There will, undoubtedly, be a ton of souvenir tickets bought this year -- but we'd need an awful lot of them to add up to 95% of the betting pool. And I don't have any forecast on who might be betting on him to place or show (where the chances of a minus pool are even greater, sometimes).
I'm guessing that we won't see the "sure thing" creep up this time. Last edited by QuikSand : 06-04-2004 at 09:28 AM. Reason: uncomfortable typo |
06-04-2004, 10:15 AM | #4 |
Pro Starter
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Minus pool?
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Quis custodiets ipsos custodes? |
06-04-2004, 10:30 AM | #5 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
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06-04-2004, 10:49 AM | #6 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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How to make guaranteed money at the racetrack
Assume you have a six-horse field in a race, with a super-heavy favorite. Assume the betting pool is big enough that whatever you bet won’t alter the pool. Assume the money in the show pool is as follows: #1: 99.5% #2 - #6: 0.1% each Now, you put down a bet that looks like this: $100,000 on #1 to show $500 each on #2-5 to show There are two meaningfully different outcomes that are possible here: Outcome #1: The favorite is in the top three Payouts: The heavy show pool will result in a $2.10 payout for all winners. So, your big ticket pays $105,000, and you’ll have two more winners for $525 each. You have three losing tickets, but those losses are more than made up for by the big winner. OUT: $105,000 IN: $106,050 ROI: 1% return on investment Outcome #2: The favorite is out of the top three Payouts: With the big money in the show pool on the favorite and out of the money, the payouts will be lofty for everyone else. Assuming a 15% takeout (about average), that means there is $850 remaining in the win pool for every $1000 in total show wagering – which will then be divided three ways (with three horses winning the bet), meaning each $1 bet to show should yield about $283. So, each of your three winning $500 bets pays $141,500. OUT: $105,000 IN: $424,500 ROI: nice |
06-04-2004, 01:13 PM | #7 |
Dynasty Boy
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Michigan
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I'll start on the subject of the minus pool, since that's the more interesting one.
QS is right in that in order for a minus pool to represent a true no-risk betting opportunity, one horse has to make up more than 95% of the betting. That's not likely to happen. However, the minus pool will happen at a lower percentage than that - around 80 to 85%, depending on how much the track and the state take as their shares. At that level, there's no no-risk opportunity for the bettor, but the track will lose money if the heavy favorite does the expected. For that reason, it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that Belmont will disallow show betting on the Belmont Stakes. As for the race itself, there doesn't seem to be much betting opportunity. SMARTY JONES is the best horse, by far, but I'm less than convinced that he can get the distance quickly enough. But which of the others can? I shrug my shoulders. |
06-04-2004, 01:17 PM | #8 | |
Go Reds
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Quote:
haha, that's great |
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06-04-2004, 01:20 PM | #9 |
Go Reds
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and QS, that is genius stuff
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06-04-2004, 02:24 PM | #10 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
I'm pretty much with you. I am generally a value bettor, and in a race like this, there is bound to be real value in the win pool. If Smarty goes off at 1-9 (like I'd expect) then I think you're looking at 10-1 and up on every other horse in the field. I guess you look at breeding, and try to see if there's someone out there who might actualy appreciate the extra distance, in teh event that Smarty doesn't. Who might that be? I'm going to skip the improving PURGE and the money finishers from the Preakness -- we basically know about them, I guess they are "logicals" but they have all been soundly beaten by Smarty already. Might one turn the tables, sure. Is that worth mentioning... well, I guess I just did. PURGE, EDDINGTON, and ROCK HARD TEN are what we might call "logicals" here. Yawn. MASTER DAVID has some stout turf breding on the dam side, and theoretically ought to hande an off track if that happens. If you throw out his Derby (like most everyone's) then you have a horse who, with one big step forward, might contend for a spot here. BIRDSTONE intrigues me here, and I'm thinking that he will end up at something like 50 or 60-1 on the tote board. What's to like? The Unbridled blood line is a good mark, he's got class from the other side, too. Plus, I just like Edgar Prado in a tactical race - and he should be placed in a good spot to pick up the pieces if Smarty falters badly. And that's my list. Do I think it's likely that one of these bombers will get there? Nope. Will I get lured into plunking down a few bucks if the odds board gets out of hand? Yup. Actual prediction: Preakness replay, kind of. SMARTY JONES gets the lead fairly early, maybe gets a bit of challenge from PURGE, and settles in for a comfortable pace through 3/4 of a mile. On the turn, or at the top of the stretch, I think PURGE falls off, and we see a little bit of run from BIRDSTONE. But into the stretch, the field is fading, SMARTY JONES stays ahead (but is probably not pulling away) and gets there first. I'll reverse the order of the Preakness trifecta finishers, and call the superfecta this way: 11 SMARTY JONES 8 EDDINGTON 5 ROCK HARD TEN 4 BIRDSTONE The 11-8 exacta pays a robust $13.00, a $1 tri brings you a measly $74.00, and the $1 superfecta lands for $430. Had to write something... |
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06-05-2004, 12:16 PM | #11 |
College Benchwarmer
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Looking for input on a h2h matchup of Birdstone vs. Royal Assault. Thoughts?
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06-05-2004, 12:19 PM | #12 |
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Birdstone gets the nod in my jaded opinion.
Q - Great read on how to make guaranteed money at the track. I printed it out for future use. I can see where this would come into play in exactly this type of situation. I never realized the value of a show tickets potential before I read this.
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
06-05-2004, 12:37 PM | #13 |
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Dola,
I just pulled 105K from the bank account to test this theory. By the way, does this take into account the tax you pay when you cash the tickets?
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
06-05-2004, 12:48 PM | #14 | |
College Starter
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Quote:
I doubt it, but you would only pay taxes on your winnings, not the amount of cash you receieved, so you would still win money. |
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06-05-2004, 12:50 PM | #15 |
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Purge scares me. He is the ? to me.
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
06-05-2004, 01:03 PM | #16 | |
World Champion Mis-speller
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If you do and don't post how it ends up, I'm going to hunt you down. |
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06-05-2004, 01:11 PM | #17 |
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If by 105,000 you mean 105 dollars, then this is how I am going to do it.
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
06-05-2004, 02:12 PM | #18 |
College Benchwarmer
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For a mere $54 you too can make this wager.
$2 Tri Keys: 1/4,5,9/4,5,9 4/2,5,9/2,5,9 5/2,8,9/2,8,9 9/1,5,8/1,4,5,8 1 - MASTER DAVID 2 - PURGE 3 - CAIMAN 4 - BIRDSTONE 5 - ROCK HARD TEN 6 - ROYAL ASSAULT 7 - TAP DANCER 8 - EDDINGTON 9 - SMARTY JONES Race 6 Vagrancy Handicap Tri Box BEAR FAN KITTY KNIGHT BEAUTY HALO Exacta Box SMOK'N FROLIC BEAR FAN BEAUTY HALO Race 7 True North Breeders Cup Handicap Exacta Key KEY DEPUTY w SPEIGHTSTOWN and CAT GENIUS Exacta Box SPEIGHTSTOWN w CAT GENIUS Race 8 Just a Game Breeders Cup H. Exacta Box INTERCONTINENTAL/CONEY KITTY/DEDICATION/RISKADVERSE Race 9 Riva Ridge Straight Trifectas TETON FOREST FOREST DANGER ABBONDANZA Race 10 Manhattan Handicap Exacta Box Epicentre STROLL REQUEST FOR PAROLE $20 Win MILLENNIUM DRAGON |
06-05-2004, 02:24 PM | #19 | |
College Benchwarmer
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Quote:
$13.80 - thanks for nothing. A dominating win..... Last edited by lynchjm24 : 06-05-2004 at 02:58 PM. |
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06-05-2004, 02:57 PM | #20 | |
College Benchwarmer
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Quote:
You guys want winners.... $34.00 exactas don't grow on trees. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 06-05-2004 at 03:04 PM. |
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06-05-2004, 03:35 PM | #21 | |
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Damn. I needed that 12 bucks.
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"i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand |
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06-05-2004, 03:48 PM | #22 | |
College Benchwarmer
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That was a horrid wager. 3 out of the last 4 have been obvious winners. Hopefully that ends by race 11. |
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06-05-2004, 05:32 PM | #23 | |
College Benchwarmer
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Went off at 12-1 and lost by a nose . |
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06-05-2004, 05:40 PM | #24 |
Hall Of Famer
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Just about post time!
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06-05-2004, 05:41 PM | #25 |
Pro Rookie
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Ummm... I've never watched the Belmont before, but what is up with that singer?
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06-05-2004, 05:41 PM | #26 |
Coordinator
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Man, that guy got the words to the national anthem all wrong...
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06-05-2004, 05:51 PM | #27 |
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Smarty Jones did it!!!
No, he didn't.. lost it in the last few seconds
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Retired GM of the eNFL 2007 Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles (19-0 record.) GM of the WOOF 2006 Doggie Bowl Champion Atlantic City Gamblers. GM of the IHOF 2019 and 2022 IHOF Bowl Champion Asheville Axemen. Last edited by Eaglesfan27 : 06-05-2004 at 05:51 PM. |
06-05-2004, 05:51 PM | #28 |
Pro Starter
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Man, that was amazing.
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Every time a Dodger scores a run, an angel has its wings ripped off by a demon, and is forced to tearfully beg the demon to cauterize the wounds.The demon will refuse, and the sobbing angel will lie in a puddle of angel blood and feathers for eternity, wondering why the Dodgers are allowed to score runs.That’s not me talking: that’s science. McCoveyChronicles.com. |
06-05-2004, 05:53 PM | #29 |
High School Varsity
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Wow
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06-05-2004, 06:03 PM | #30 | |
College Benchwarmer
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What the hell happened to ROCK HARD TEN? |
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06-05-2004, 06:03 PM | #31 | |
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Ronan Tynan: same guy who sings God Bless America at Yankee playoff games. |
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06-05-2004, 06:07 PM | #32 | |
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Quote:
Anyone thinking that was gonna be the trifecta with a Smarty sandwich? Closer than Id have thought, but a smarter man would have bet him straight.
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06-05-2004, 06:18 PM | #33 | |
College Benchwarmer
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After reading this earlier, I got the feeling Birdstone was going to win the race. I really wish I would have placed a bet. |
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06-05-2004, 06:39 PM | #34 |
Dynasty Boy
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Michigan
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Thoughts:
1) Congratulations to the BIRDSTONE team, and sympathies to the SJ team and its many fans. 2) SJ paid off more to place and show than he would have to win. He was way underbet in both pools; I know because I was watching them closely. I thought about placing a bet on one or the other, but decided not to. Oh well. 3) The one bet I did make on the Belmont was at BetBet with the cyberbucks they gave me from a previous promotion. I bet on "Smarty - No" at +300 (3-1 against). Now I have enough money in my account to get a check. Or maybe I should parlay it into a futures bet on the Lions winning the Front Office Bowl. Only 75-1; whaddaya think? |
06-05-2004, 06:41 PM | #35 | |
Hall Of Famer
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There are bets on a video game? |
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06-06-2004, 09:21 AM | #36 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
So, this is a fair paraphrasing of my ultimate conclusions about the race, even up until race time. On the bus I take to Belmont each year, I'm honored to give a little "handicapping" rundown over the microphone (usually about the time we're passing by Manhattan) and talk about what I like in the day's races. Yesterday I talked about Smarty's running style (a plus) and his pedigree (a minus) but concluded he had an excellent chance to win it. I then went on to mention MASTER DAVID briefly, and BIRDSTONE extensively, more or less as above. The race was literally breathtaking -- the crowd was far more enthusiastically rooting for this horse than any of his recent predecessors). Smarty held off challenges into and through the turn, and got to our section still with a two length lead. But in the furlong right in front os us, we saw it all slip away -- Smarty clunked home (no other way to put it) and Birdstone finished strongly enough to pull past him. It was like someone cam through and sucked all the air out of the stands-- the screaming and cheering just evaporated into awestruck silence and gasping. I lost count of the people who came up to me to thank me for giving them BIRDSTONE -- probably half of our bus used him either in straight bets (I told them an across-the board bet might be worthwhile) or in an exacta with Smarty. At least this year, nobody went to the IRS windown on my advice (like two years ago when Sarava won it at 70-1). I, on the other hand, following a long day of near misses (making decent picks that either came in too chalky or just missed the payoff spots) ended up abandoning my "longshot" bets in the big race, and only using BIRDSTONE in my single trifecta bet, which had SMARYT JONES singled on top to save money. Heh. I got creamed, but the people who listened to me had their best day ever. Nice. Unbelieveable experience, though - the race itself was the most exciting I've ever watched. |
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06-06-2004, 09:36 AM | #37 | |
n00b
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
Yeah it was wild. I had Birdstone to finish 2nd on a $5 Superfecta. Argh. I thought he had a chance. I threw his Derby race and his prep race out. He had valid excuses. Still, I thought Smarty would win. Most exciting ever? Hmm. I have to default to the Easy Goer/Sunday Silence Preakness in 1989. Best race I ever saw in my life.
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06-06-2004, 09:54 AM | #38 | |
lolzcat
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I have no doubt. |
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06-06-2009, 08:03 PM | #39 | |
Torchbearer
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Add me to the list. We went with some friends to the track today and for some reason I remembered this post when going up to the window for the Belmont. As a result, I added SUMMER BIRD to my ticket for a decent hit. (Of course, I recognize MINE THAT BIRD's pedigree as well.) |
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