College Football Week 15 discussion (Conference Championship Week)

[cartman]

Here's the match up of Top 25 teams this weekend:

Arizona vs. Oregon (in Santa Clara, CA - PAC 12 Championship Game)
Alabama vs. Missouri (in Atlanta, GA - SEC Championship Game)
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (in Charlotte, NC - ACC Championship Game)
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (in Indianapolis, IN - Big Ten Championship Game)
Kansas State at Baylor

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's the match up of Top 25 teams this weekend:

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (in Charlotte, NC - ACC Championship Game)

You all should make sure to watch the Dr. Pepper Halftime show of this one. You all can see me in my stripes and boo!

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

You all should make sure to watch the Dr. Pepper Halftime show of this one. You all can see me in my stripes and boo!

Are you going to get to throw a flag for an illegal forward pass on one of the participants of the Dr Pepper "throw into the bottle" game?

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by cartman

Are you going to get to throw a flag for an illegal forward pass on one of the participants of the Dr Pepper "throw into the bottle" game?

Either that or tell them that their final (winning) pass was not released when time expired.

[digamma]

All FSU does is win, yet they keep moving down the rankings.

[digamma]

Other playoff ranking thoughts:

-We can put an end to the "will Missouri get in if they beat Bama?" thoughts. Ranked 16th behind four other SEC teams.

-TCU plays the weakest opponent on Saturday, but you have to figure at #3, they are in a win and in situation.

-In fact, I think it is hard to say that anyone else could move into the top four unless there is a loss. Well, unless they just keep moving FSU down.

-This could be more infuriating than picking two teams for a BCS championship game. Baylor says, what do we have to do, we beat TCU? OSU says they scheduled better than Baylor and TCU and didn't lose in conference. TCU just smiles.

-The moving down of FSU is just crazy to me. I'll grant you they haven't been pretty, but they've won every game and of their four non-conference games three were against Power 5 schools. Hard for them to do much more than that. (Of course I'm pulling for them to fall out of the playoffs with a loss, but still.)

-I wonder if we will see the rankings release again next season. It generates conversation, but it is creating a ton of silliness and second guessing.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by digamma

OSU says they scheduled better than Baylor and TCU and didn't lose in conference. TCU just smiles.

TCU scheduled Minnesota(8-4) and beat them 30-7. OSU scheduled VT(6-6) and got beat. OSU beat Minnesota by 7. Eyeball test goes to TCU.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Matthean

TCU scheduled Minnesota(8-4) and beat them 30-7. OSU scheduled VT(6-6) and got beat. OSU beat Minnesota by 7. Eyeball test goes to TCU.

Well, I'll take your thoughts on Ohio State with a grain of salt .

But OSU also played Navy and Cincinnati, two bowl teams, while TCU played Samford (FCS) and SMU (0-11).

[Buccaneer]

I just read (and re-read) something I don't quite understand. This is in reference to Georgia Southern not being eligible for a bowl (even though they won the Sun Belt):

The rule barring FBS transitional programs from bowl games has been in place since 2002 as a disincentive for teams unprepared for the requirements of FBS football to make the leap

If I read this right, why would it be a disincentive for a new program to do well and be rewarded with a post-season bowl?

[Arles]

The interesting situation would be if Arizona beats Oregon. Bear in mind, even as an alum, I'm putting the odds at about 30%. But, if Arizona does win, they have to be in the playoffs, correct? Beat the consensus #2 team twice (one on the road, one neutral), beat #23 on the road and won against #17. Add in the Pac-12 title and I would think they would leapfrog Oregon, the Baylor/TCU team not chosen and potentially Ohio State. Would be interesting - esp if Ohio State squeaks by Wisconsin with their backup QB. Do you take Baylor (1 loss), Ohio State (1 loss) or Arizona (2 losses, but much better wins and Pac-12 champ).

In a more likely situation, let's say Bama, TCU and Oregon win, while FSU loses, Ohio State wins a close one and Baylor wins by two TDs. Now, you have 3 teams all with one loss and the apparent leader (Ohio State) doesn't really have a QB. If Baylor handles K-State, you would have a hard time convincing me that Ohio State is a better team by their famous "eye test".

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Arles

In a more likely situation, let's say Bama, TCU and Oregon win, while FSU loses, Ohio State wins a close one and Baylor wins by two TDs. Now, you have 3 teams all with one loss and the apparent leader (Ohio State) doesn't really have a QB. If Baylor handles K-State, you would have a hard time convincing me that Ohio State is a better team by their famous "eye test".

Baylor easily in that situation.

[BillJasper]

UAB is done...

UAB players allowed free transfer as school shuts down football program | CollegeFootballTalk

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

If I read this right, why would it be a disincentive for a new program to do well and be rewarded with a post-season bowl?

Knowing you aren't eligible for the post-season right away is a disincentive.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by digamma

Other playoff ranking thoughts:

-We can put an end to the "will Missouri get in if they beat Bama?" thoughts. Ranked 16th behind four other SEC teams.

-TCU plays the weakest opponent on Saturday, but you have to figure at #3, they are in a win and in situation.

-In fact, I think it is hard to say that anyone else could move into the top four unless there is a loss. Well, unless they just keep moving FSU down.

-This could be more infuriating than picking two teams for a BCS championship game. Baylor says, what do we have to do, we beat TCU? OSU says they scheduled better than Baylor and TCU and didn't lose in conference. TCU just smiles.

-The moving down of FSU is just crazy to me. I'll grant you they haven't been pretty, but they've won every game and of their four non-conference games three were against Power 5 schools. Hard for them to do much more than that. (Of course I'm pulling for them to fall out of the playoffs with a loss, but still.)

-I wonder if we will see the rankings release again next season. It generates conversation, but it is creating a ton of silliness and second guessing.

-What could possibly go wrong with an all human committee picking this instead of a mix involving computers?

[Lathum]

I miss the BCS. I find myself disengaged from this playoff nonsense, when in past years I was very interested in who would go to what BCS game, would a mid major get in, etc...

Maybe I would be more into it if it was an8 or 16 team playoff, but I dunno.

[tarcone]

It should be 8. Power 5 Champs and 3 wild cards. Power 5 champs seeded 1-5.

I dont think 16 is the way.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I miss the BCS. I find myself disengaged from this playoff nonsense, when in past years I was very interested in who would go to what BCS game, would a mid major get in, etc...

Maybe I would be more into it if it was an8 or 16 team playoff, but I dunno.

There has to be a site that mirrors what the BCS rankings would be this season right? I figured it wouldn't be that hard to find with a google search but I guess BCS still somehow ties into the playoffs as most of the links bring up non ranking sites. Anyone know where to find a mock BCS ranking site? Would be interesting to compare.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by tarcone

It should be 8. Power 5 Champs and 3 wild cards. Power 5 champs seeded 1-5.

I dont think 16 is the way.

I think I agree with the 8 team model (or 6 w/ byes for #1 and #2), but the rub is always going to be the same. When they used the BCS formula, #3 almost always had a gripe. Now #5 has a gripe. If it goes to an 8 team formula, I suspect we'll hear from #9.

Still, it is largely about television and the power conferences pocketing money, so I think there is going to be a problem as long as one of those teams is not represented (and, again, I think it is going to be a bigger problem if the SEC or Big Ten are not represented, which is reasonably possible this year).

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Arles

In a more likely situation, let's say Bama, TCU and Oregon win, while FSU loses, Ohio State wins a close one and Baylor wins by two TDs. Now, you have 3 teams all with one loss and the apparent leader (Ohio State) doesn't really have a QB. If Baylor handles K-State, you would have a hard time convincing me that Ohio State is a better team by their famous "eye test".

Really? In your scenario, Ohio State beats a top-15 team "without a QB" and still hasn't proven anything?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Really? In your scenario, Ohio State beats a top-15 team "without a QB" and still hasn't proven anything?

This. I think Ohio State deserves to go if they beat Wisconsin for the Big-Ten title with the third QB on their depth chart when the season began.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think I agree with the 8 team model (or 6 w/ byes for #1 and #2), but the rub is always going to be the same. When they used the BCS formula, #3 almost always had a gripe. Now #5 has a gripe. If it goes to an 8 team formula, I suspect we'll hear from #9.

Still, it is largely about television and the power conferences pocketing money, so I think there is going to be a problem as long as one of those teams is not represented (and, again, I think it is going to be a bigger problem if the SEC or Big Ten are not represented, which is reasonably possible this year).

But #9 has less of a claim than #5 which has less of a claim than #3. People make a fuss at the NCAA tourney committee about those last couple of at large teams. But no one really gets up in arms except those couple of schools. It's easier to leave out a 2 or 3 loss school than a 1 loss school when we have such a small body of work for each of these teams. Frankly, I'm still a fan of the 12 team playoff- 4 byes for the top 4 and I'd be ok with the top 4 having to be conference champs.

SI

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Really? In your scenario, Ohio State beats a top-15 team "without a QB" and still hasn't proven anything?

People have no problem forgetting FSU beat Clemson without Winston.

EDIT: I kept seeing Baylor over OSU in the rankings but for the playoff ones I see OSU is ahead. If a spot opens and OSU wins, I think they are in.

Also, I hate most of this list.

Dienhart: Potential candidates who would make sense at Michigan « Big Ten Network

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Matthean

People have no problem forgetting FSU beat Clemson without Winston.

EDIT: I kept seeing Baylor over OSU in the rankings but for the playoff ones I see OSU is ahead. If a spot opens and OSU wins, I think they are in.

Also, I hate most of this list.

Dienhart: Potential candidates who would make sense at Michigan « Big Ten Network

Haha... Cam Cameron? Mike Gundy? Greg Roman is an interesting name, assuming the usual suspects turn it down to stay in the NFL (Harbaugh) or are blackballed again by the Carr/Bo faction (Miles).

[Kodos]

Yes to Cam Cameron! Why should Indiana be the only team to suffer having Cameron as a head coach?

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Matthean

People have no problem forgetting FSU beat Clemson without Winston.

To be fair, Clemson also played half the game with a QB that was somehow worse than FSU's backup.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Meh. Mizzou is in with a win. And if they aren't, I'm bracing myself for the 'How Mizzou has ruined the SEC' articles.

[CU Tiger]

I'm not sure whats better for the ACC.
If FSU wins they seem to be assured of dropping to #5 judging by the last 2 weeks. But at the same time I cant imagine GT jumping up to #4 with a win or even jumping Mizzou (which would have to beat Bama to intiate rankageddon) , even though they have a better resume.

[ISiddiqui]

I don't think there is any way that an undefeated FSU doesn't end up in the Top 4.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I don't think there is any way that an undefeated FSU doesn't end up in the Top 4.

yeah, I just cant see that happening.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I don't think there is any way that an undefeated FSU doesn't end up in the Top 4.

+1. I'll guess that 'Bama stays ahead of Missouri even with the loss.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by panerd

There has to be a site that mirrors what the BCS rankings would be this season right? I figured it wouldn't be that hard to find with a google search but I guess BCS still somehow ties into the playoffs as most of the links bring up non ranking sites. Anyone know where to find a mock BCS ranking site? Would be interesting to compare.

There are a couple of caveats but it looks like it is pretty close.

http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yes to Cam Cameron! Why should Indiana be the only team to suffer having Cameron as a head coach?

If they're going for an offensive minded coach and want someone who failed as an HC in Indiana, why not our old friend Schematic Advantage Charlie? I think he'd set the record by having 3 schools paying him at once!

[Arles]

Interesting analysis by Nate Silver and 538 on playoff chances:

College Football Playoff Update: TCU Promotion Shakes Up Odds | FiveThirtyEight

[ISiddiqui]

So apparently there is this fun conspiracy theory, that moving TCU to 3 and FSU to 4 has been done by the committee to create a super ratings heavy mega cash cow semifinal between Alabama and FSU in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Which... doesn't sound particularly crazy to be honest.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

So apparently there is this fun conspiracy theory, that moving TCU to 3 and FSU to 4 has been done by the committee to create a super ratings heavy mega cash cow semifinal between Alabama and FSU in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Which... doesn't sound particularly crazy to be honest.

Why would that even enter the realm of crazy? It is exactly what the goal of the playoffs is set out to do (much like the BCS championship game) - create compelling, high ratings match-ups.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

So apparently there is this fun conspiracy theory, that moving TCU to 3 and FSU to 4 has been done by the committee to create a super ratings heavy mega cash cow semifinal between Alabama and FSU in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Which... doesn't sound particularly crazy to be honest.

Yet, the NCAA continues to expect us to buy that these players are amateurs and shouldn't be getting paid. Everything they do is designed to generate even more revenue.

I know the extra games are good for the student-athletes.

[Buccaneer]

My son and I had a discussion about UAB last night and while the death is momentarily painful, I also put in the context of the out-of-control monster that has become D1 college football and the impossible tasks of some programs of "keeping up with the joneses". I am biased in that I believe a state-funded school should cut athletics before they cut any academic programs, as well as all athletic programs should be self-funded without subsidies. But in reading today's article, this snippet caught my eye

"Now you're telling me I've got two more years left to play and I've got to give up on football and settle for an education?" Arrington said. "Now an education is good and everything, but what about the dreams you have? You still want to accomplish them. It's just crazy."

Dusty Davis, the team chaplain, hugged UAB players as they left the team meeting with Watts, sometimes two at a time. Moments after leading a prayer with UAB protesters, Davis described himself as "violently angry" at the circumstances.

"A lot of these kids won't get other opportunities," Davis said. "They might be able to drop down and play at other schools. A lot of these guys will be working fast food or back in their hometown living with mom or grandma. That's the cold reality."

Did many players on UAB assume they were going to get a professional contract? If the chances had been little to slim, what would they have been doing after their eligibility ran out at UAB? I would think that since they are at a good college, they would take advantage of that opportunity so when they graduate, they would not end up working fast food or back in their hometown living with mom or grandma?

[CU Tiger]

Your point not withstanding, UAB was in a completely unique set of circumstances due to their relationship with U of Alabama and their financial control by U of Alabama BOT.

One game against UA with average payouts every 5 years would have saved their AD.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

There are a couple of caveats but it looks like it is pretty close.

http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html

Problem with this interpretation of the BCS is quantifying the impact the selection committee has had on the AP and Coaches Poll. It is difficult to say FSU would have dropped in the AP and Coaches poll without first dropping in the CFP rankings. Sort of a tail wagging the dog thing...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Breeze

Problem with this interpretation of the BCS is quantifying the impact the selection committee has had on the AP and Coaches Poll. It is difficult to say FSU would have dropped in the AP and Coaches poll without first dropping in the CFP rankings. Sort of a tail wagging the dog thing...

Umm... the polls come out before the updated CFP rankings each week.
And the polls have not shown any real indication of reacting to the CFP, if anything perhaps it's the other way around.

The first time the CFP dropped them (from #2 to #3) MIssissippi State lost that following weekend and FSU doubled to tripled their votes for #1 in both polls.

This latest drop in the CFP (from #3 to #4) hasn't been reflected in either AP or USA Today poll yet.

The most damaging thing to FSU in the two polls (not the CFP) has been the near miss against Boston College, their other point total drop (just 7 points) came after beating UVA by two touchdowns in the same week that Oregon, Alabama, TCU and Ohio State all had wins over ranked opponents.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Umm... the polls come out before the updated CFP rankings each week.
And the polls have not shown any real indication of reacting to the CFP, if anything perhaps it's the other way around.

The first time the CFP dropped them (from #2 to #3) MIssissippi State lost that following weekend and FSU doubled to tripled their votes for #1 in both polls.

This latest drop in the CFP (from #3 to #4) hasn't been reflected in either AP or USA Today poll yet.

The most damaging thing to FSU in the two polls (not the CFP) has been the near miss against Boston College, their other point total drop (just 7 points) came after beating UVA by two touchdowns in the same week that Oregon, Alabama, TCU and Ohio State all had wins over ranked opponents.

But when Bama survives a 1 point scare against an unranked opponent they exhibit game control...or when they go to OT against a 25th ranked opponent.

[BillJasper]

I still think a team should have to win their conference in order to qualify for the playoffs. I intensely dislike a group of people who have little in the way of credibility picking teams who they think are "good".

Go to six teams, a spot for each power five conference champion and a wild card that can either be a runner up from a power five conference or a champion from a minor conference.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I still think a team should have to win their conference in order to qualify for the playoffs. I intensely dislike a group of people who have little in the way of credibility picking teams who they think are "good".

Go to six teams, a spot for each power five conference champion and a wild card that can either be a runner up from a power five conference or a champion from a minor conference.

Then how do you determine who gets the byes?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by cartman

Then how do you determine who gets the byes?

Computer rankings or strength of schedule. Or, like the NFL, wins and losses.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Computer rankings or strength of schedule. Or, like the NFL, wins and losses.

Wins and losses based on apples and oranges?!? There is no way you can come up with an equitable system of comparison when there is almost nothing to compare (unlike NFL) - no head-to-head, few common opponents, etc. To try to fit a subjective model into an objective ranking is comical at best. Should not even try, imo.

[Easy Mac]

So if Mississippi State had not lost, would FSU be #5 right now?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Wins and losses based on apples and oranges?!? There is no way you can come up with an equitable system of comparison when there is almost nothing to compare (unlike NFL) - no head-to-head, few common opponents, etc. To try to fit a subjective model into an objective ranking is comical at best. Should not even try, imo.

It is far better than telling a few people to pick the best teams. It is comical that the National Champion that hasn't lost a game in two years is ranked fourth and could be on the outside looking in come playoff time if they have a tight game with Georgia Tech.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

So apparently there is this fun conspiracy theory, that moving TCU to 3 and FSU to 4 has been done by the committee to create a super ratings heavy mega cash cow semifinal between Alabama and FSU in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Which... doesn't sound particularly crazy to be honest.

I think if you asked FSU and their fans if they would rather play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl (a mere 350 miles away from Tallahassee) or have them travel to LA and play Oregon (2,000 miles away) - I would guess they would choose the Sugar Bowl by a fairly heavy margin.

I don't see an issue in moving the 3/4 to setup a better regional semi and more fan participation. What's the harm?

[BillJasper]

At what point does a coach begin to lose credibility?

Report: Nebraska in ‘serious talks’ with Bret Bielema | CollegeFootballTalk

[digamma]

I think the pretty clear "conspiracy" if you call it that is that the Rose Bowl needs Oregon to be there and the Sugar Bowl needs Alabama. Pretty much no shot of those two being the #2 and #3 seeds.