09-29-2009, 12:26 AM | #1 | ||
Coordinator
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College Football Week 5 Discussion
Games I'm looking forward to: (Pretty much every one of the big games looks worse on paper than it did a week ago, but at least there are some interesting shakeout games where we can judge some of these untested unbeatens.)
Michigan @ Michigan St (-.5) 12:00 B10 network - Not the last undefeated, higher ranked team going in as an underdog. We'll see if the 12th imam aka Tate Forcier can pull out another victory, but away from home he won't get that lucky call and I think MSU wins. South Florida @ Syracuse (+7) 12:00 ESPN360 - An unranked team playing at Syracuse? Where do I sign up? In all seriousness, we'll see if South Florida's aversion to October and the north happens immediately after their big win or if they'll wait to beat Cincy, get ranked in the top 10 and then collapse (again). I'm taking Syracuse to win outright. Get ready to hear ESPN announcers fellate Greg Paulus in a second sport! FSU @ BC (+5) 3:30 ABC (Regional) - At least BC is consistent and has matched preseason expectations. I think last week was more South Florida getting up for the game and this one will resemble FSU-BYU with FSU's athletes running away with it. UCLA @ Stanford (-6) 3:30 ABC (Regional) - UCLA's undefeated and Stanford did have a convincing win over an alleged top 25 team last week. If UCLA wins they've got home shots against Oregon and Cal lined up the next 2 weeks, while Stanford would go to an early 3-0 in what's turning out to be a very fluid 1-9 conference. UCLA wins. LSU @ Georgia (-2.5) 3:30 CBS - Georgia's vacillated between a terrible offense and a terrible defense, LSU is #4 in the country, and they're still underdogs. I guess I'll go with LSU just to make a pick in every game, but I have no conviction here. Washington @ Notre Dame (-13) 3:30 NBC - 13 points? Really? I know both of Washington's good performances have come at home, but Locker alone can cover that the way ND's front 7 tackle. Combine it with the less than 100% Jimmy Clausen (although I think Dayne Crist is the better long-term prospect) and the fact ND has had 3 straight last-minute games vs. mediocre teams and I would take the points and run. I think ND loses this one as Charlie Weis' horrific end-game management catches up to him (he said after last game they would have spiked it on 3rd and goal with 38 seconds left if Purdue hadn't called timeout first.) Ohio St. @ Indiana (+16.5) 7:00 B10 Network - Indiana didn't look good sneaking by MAC and FCS teams, then went and outplayed Michigan. Ohio St. also turned in their best performance of the year. Maybe I'm just getting sucked in because I've always disliked Ohio St, but I just don't think their offense is good enough to cover 16.5 points. Buckeyes still win though. Georgia Tech @ Mississippi St. (+4.5) 7:30 ESPN360 - Yay, two more schizophrenic teams. Georgia Tech recovered and showed they can look like a top 10 team as long as they never trail by more than 1 score and have to start throwing. I think they'll win again by 2-3 scores. Texas A&M/Arkansas (-1) 7:30 ESPN2 - Texas A&M is another ex-BCS power quietly sitting at 3-0 that can start sneaking up on people with a win, but I think Arkansas just ran into a buzzsaw of penalties and the Alabama defense last week, and will recover nicely. Auburn @ Tennessee (-1.5) 7:45 ESPN - Auburn and Gus Malzahn have been piling up the points while we're all aware of Tennessee's struggles. I honestly don't know how Tennessee is favored with the QB issue - imo that close loss @Florida showed more about Florida's weakness than Tennessee being ready for the big time. If Auburn beats the Vols convincingly, what does that say about them vis-a-vis the Gators? Oklahoma @ Miami (+7) 8:00 ABC (Regional) - Oklahoma's defense might be the best in the country, and Miami did lose by 24 last week, but I really think that scoreline wasn't reflective of the two teams and this line is off. Between the pouring rain and VT's weekly punt block TD they jumped out 21-0, but at halftime Miami calmed down and was taking the game back at them until the TE dropped 2 easy balls that would have brought the Canes within 21-14 mid-3rd Q. Once VT went the other way (and recovered the loose ball on that Miami punt off the VT blocker) Miami was forced to go one-dimensional in the driving rain and didn't have a chance. Ironically/coincidentally, Miami also played a top-10 non-conference team after losing 31-7 at VT in 2003 (L 10-6 Tennessee). Either way, I'm taking Miami and the points. USC @ Cal (+5) 8:00 ABC (Regional) - The poster child for games that looked much bigger 2 and even 1 weeks ago. As is customary with ABC's regional coverage, I saw none of the Oregon shellacking, not even highlights until Oregon was up 32-3, but from what I gather Cal fell apart after a fumble. I think/hope Cal has enough pride to come back from that and end USC's NC aspirations. Colorado St. @ Idaho (+3.5) 10:30 ESPNU - I know what you're thinking, but this game could be huge for the BCS debate. CSU is the 4th best team in the MWC and Idaho is looking like it might be the 2nd best in the WAC. If TCU and Boise St. end up undefeated and arguing over who's the best non-BCS team, this could be the key game in arguing the relative league strength. I pick CSU and the MWC. Last edited by BishopMVP : 09-29-2009 at 05:44 PM. |
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09-29-2009, 08:53 AM | #2 |
Resident Alien
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I'm hoping Indiana can put in a good showing against OSU. I realize a Hoosier victory would require a miracle.
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09-29-2009, 09:46 AM | #3 | |
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I'm hoping you are right. On the surface it looks that way, especially when you consider the trouble that Texas A&M apparently had with Utah State and that our defense didn't look nearly as lolbad vs Alabama (aside from poor tackling on one play, really). I think this should be a comfortable win for Arkansas, but who the heck knows anymore. Our last 2 games have most of us beyond confused. Trying to sort through what's real and what appears to be is pretty tough with this team. |
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09-29-2009, 09:58 AM | #4 |
Head Coach
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The Georgia game still galls me. I had that as one of the winnable games on our schedule.
Edit: N/M. I'm having trouble waking up this morning. I was confusing Texas A&M and Texas Tech.
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09-29-2009, 10:09 AM | #5 |
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Yeah, to my eyes it really just seems like a weird series of events that exacerbated an already shaky defense to the point that it broke, combined with a coach and team that exploited the place it broke mercilessly. I don't think it broke in anywhere near the same way Saturday against Alabama. The secondary seemed better and the run was stopped outside of the weird (hopefully fluke) four broken tackles TD run. The weird thing this weekend was the penalties and dropped passes. We had some penalties against Georgia, but they were mostly related to that Franklin incident. And we had ZERO dropped balls in our opener and only a couple against Georgia. That just seems to me to be so odd and uncharacteristic that it had to be an effect of playing on the road for the first time against a defense that was trying to disrupt timing and do everything they could do unsynch our offense.
Basically, the defense isn't as bad as it looked against Georgia and the offense isn't as bad as it looked against Alabama. I hope. |
09-29-2009, 11:13 AM | #6 | ||||||
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Michigan's defense is terrible but fast. Michigan State will not be able to score enough though to keep up. I see a repeat of last week's Indian/Michigan game. Quote:
Notre Dame wins at home. If this game was in Washington, I might feel differently, but... Quote:
Indiana has a let down after last weeks shootout with Michigan, and is promptly drubbed by OSU. Quote:
This one is difficult to figure out. I admit, I was on the "the U is back" parade two weeks ago. Then they were destroyed by Virginia Tech. However, I agree with Bishop that the score really was not indicative of the two teams. I still think Miami is better than that game showed, and am taking them at home this week in a close game.
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09-29-2009, 11:23 AM | #7 |
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I think MSU will beat UM in a close game. MSU is not as a bad as their record and UM is not as good as theirs. Plus it being UM's first road game, and I am just not confident.
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09-29-2009, 11:29 AM | #8 | |||
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I actually have a really good feeling about the game. I don't think MSU has an answer for Forcier. I also think Rich Rod will out coach D'antoni (?).
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09-29-2009, 11:33 AM | #9 | ||
Hockey Boy
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Their defense is fast? Did you see that Indiana freshman tailback out race the entire secondary? They are not that fast. Quote:
I agree. I think the teams are very balanced and you put Michigan on the road for the first time and an angry Spartan team looking at this game to potentially turn their whole season around, I see the first consecutive Spartan victories in many, many yers.
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09-29-2009, 11:41 AM | #10 | |||
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I could be way off here, but I would expect a division 1 tailback to be faster than a safety/corner most, if not all, of the time. It is a skill position, after all. However, I was mostly referring to the defensive line and linebackers in regards to the speed of Michigan's defense.
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09-29-2009, 11:45 AM | #11 | |
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The one thing that I could see is Michigan playing a 4 man front rather then a 3 man. Let Sagese move next to Martin and slide RVB out to end. That said we really can't run that all game with the little DL depth we have but from time to time I expect to see it. It'll mainly come down to our LB's. Ezeh has been awful, and needs to have a career day because mostly he is just reacting so slowly to plays that by the time he goes to fill a hole the runner is in his face as it is. If he plays well, and Mouton and Brown continue to be steady, we can win this one, but if the LB play continues to suck, I am not going to be confident. |
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09-29-2009, 11:50 AM | #12 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
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For those that might be interested in seeing the team I'm obsessed with..
FCS #5 William and Mary @ #2 Villanova 3:30 Vs. [yes, the National TV Network] My W&M Tribe face a very, very good Villanova team. A big test for a team that has surprised many with an uncharacteristically good defense.
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09-29-2009, 11:52 AM | #13 | |
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When's Villanova going to head up to the D-1? I always hear rumblings, but you are someone who obviously follows the FCS, do you expect them to move up anytime soon?> |
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09-29-2009, 12:15 PM | #14 | ||
lolzcat
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[Soap Box]FCS is Division I.[/Soap Box] Interesting you say that - I've heard NO rumblings of Villanova moving up to FBS. They have pretty poor facilities with mediocre attendance. Up until the last few years they were also generally in the middle of the pack in the conference, rather than the front runner they are now. The more likely candidates from FCS, and from the CAA specifically, are James Madison University and the University of Delaware. They have long traditions, a large fan base, and nice facilities. They both sellout their 20,000+ stadiums. By comparison, Villanova has a 12,500 capacity and my understanding is that A) it's not very nice and B) rarely sold out. That being said, there was a freeze on teams moving up for awhile. I'm not sure if it is still in place though. But I wouldn't expect Villanova to move any time soon - I would expect JMU, UDel, or Appy St. to do it first.
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09-29-2009, 12:24 PM | #15 |
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Villanova was given the opportunity to join the Big East along with UConn when UConn made the move up, but they declined (this was prior to the ACC defections). It would be nice to have media presence in the Philadelphia market, but I would imagine that there are a large number of Rutgers' (along w/ PSU, obviously) alums in the area already and, as a private, relatively small University (they have less than 6,500 undergrads per year), they would probably have trouble tackling all of the financial requirements of both moving up and thriving at the FCS level.
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09-29-2009, 12:25 PM | #16 |
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Villanova would fight Temple for FBS suckiority
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09-29-2009, 12:28 PM | #17 | ||
lolzcat
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We face similar problems at W&M. We have a strong tradition, but limited funds and people to draw from. Undergrad is less than 5,000 - so filling the FBS requirement (I want to say it's either 25k or 35k per game) is quite difficult. So, FCS is perfect for us. I think that's what you'll find with most schools in the CAA. We've found a very good nitch where we have a VERY competitive conference that in reality contains teams that would compete in the bottom-tier FBS conferences, but without the extreme financial burdens that come at the FBS level [for a lower-tier team].
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09-29-2009, 12:29 PM | #18 | |
lolzcat
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Seeing Villanova beat Temple this year with only 65 scholarships - it might not be a fair fight for the Owls .
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09-29-2009, 12:36 PM | #19 |
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Looking at their enrollments and endowments (which, to me, are the easiest indicators to judge a school's almumni network), I would think that Delaware (15,000+ students and an endowment of over $1.3B) would be in the best position of those mentioned to make the move and be positioned to do pretty well.
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09-29-2009, 03:42 PM | #20 | ||||
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09-29-2009, 03:52 PM | #21 |
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Ohio State v. Indiana is on the Big Ten Network.
Indiana played WAY better than I expected last week against Michigan. That said, OSU has 2 consecutive shutouts, one against a presumably better-than-Indiana Illinois team. I don't think OSU's offense is all that great, but their defense should make it a 21 point spread or so.
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09-29-2009, 04:02 PM | #22 | |
Hockey Boy
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Michigan's defense has a way of making other teams look very good.
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09-29-2009, 04:04 PM | #23 |
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Stanford/UCLA is going to be very interesting. Can UCLA's stout defense slow down Stanford's power running game and force Luck to make some plays? Can UCLA get anything going on offense against a Cardinal defense that is good, but probably not great?
Stanford can prove to be a legit Pac-10 title contender with a win, while UCLA can prove their undefeated start isn't a mirage. Seeing UCLA's defense go against Gerhart will be fun to watch. I'm sure he won't carve them up like he did the UW, but can he consistently churn out 4, 5, 6 yard gains and keep the pressure off Luck? Luck is talented for sure, but he's still a 2nd year guy in his 1st year playing, and he makes mistakes. Can he carry the offense if the Bruins keep Gerhart in check? Can UCLA's offense do enough even if their defense keeps the Cardinal in check? |
09-29-2009, 04:04 PM | #24 |
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WE. WILL. SMOKE YOU!
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09-29-2009, 04:05 PM | #25 | |
Hockey Boy
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Quote:
Another replay that inexplicably went in Michigan's favor? You certainly can't be referring to the replay involving the picture below that correctly went in Michigan's favor.
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09-29-2009, 04:06 PM | #26 |
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Regarding the UW at Notre Dame, I'd think we'd have a much better chance if the Huskies were playing at home. I think we have a coaching edge and enough skill position talent to pull off the win on a neutral or home field, but in South Bend, I think the Irish will edge the Dawgs.
Sarkisian is doing a good job at the UW, and I think he'll have us bowling next year (and possibly this year), but there's still a lot of work to be done with our line play on both sides of the ball. Another year of strength and conditioning work and another strong recruiting class or two are what this program needs to get back to where they used to be. |
09-29-2009, 04:08 PM | #27 | ||||
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Does Indiana's offense play defense? I mean, that is your argument, right - that Indiana outgained Michigan? I was referring to the MSU defense vs. Tate Forcier and his ability to scramble, make good decisions (most of the time), and throw on the run. And if he is too hurt to play, I have confidence that Robinson can be fairly effective (they are almost the exact same type of QB). I do not doubt that MSU will give them a good game, and hell, might even win. But I am still feeling like Michigan is a better team and even on the road they have a good chance of pulling this one off. Quote:
Especially the past two years.
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09-29-2009, 04:19 PM | #28 | ||
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Just what we need, another fucking bowl game that nobody cares about. Especially appalling is the 7th place Big Twelve team that would get an automatic bid to this game (along with the 4th place Big East team).
Ugh. Yankees Stadium to announce new bowl game - ESPN
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09-29-2009, 04:25 PM | #29 | |
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Eh, should pull a rating of somewhere around a 2.0 give or take (based on last year's bowl numbers) which means it'll be in the neighborhood viewing wise somewhere between Leno and Heroes and be just a little outside the 20 most watched shows on cable that week. On the whole, that ain't awful TV programming (regardless of what sort of college football it is).
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09-29-2009, 05:07 PM | #30 | |
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I believe he is referring to the "interception" that occurred right after Michigan scored the final touchdown. It should have been ruled simultaneous posession and remained IU ball. Instead, the officials "gave" it to Michigan. |
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09-29-2009, 05:09 PM | #31 | |
Hockey Boy
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I know the one he's talking about in the Indiana game, but he said that was "another" call that inexplicably went in Michigan's favor, meaning, of course, that there was a prior call inexplicably went in Michigan's favor.
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09-29-2009, 05:23 PM | #32 | |||
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And FWIW, I like Denard Robinson, but he's one-dimensional at this point.Ehhh, who cares? It's going to be on some random ESPN replacing the 4th PTI or Mike&Mike of the day. I'll gladly take live football action as an extreme backup option at pretty much any time. |
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09-29-2009, 05:32 PM | #33 | |
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Oh, it's always tough, I agree, but it seems tougher than usual for this team. But, point taken, for sure. |
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09-29-2009, 05:34 PM | #34 |
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Ohio State - Indiana game is on Big Ten Network
I think Ohio State rolls, the defense has been clicking on all cylinders since the Navy game. Usually @ Indiana ends up being a home game for Ohio State, not sure if it will be the same this year. Last edited by Balldog : 09-29-2009 at 05:45 PM. |
09-29-2009, 05:41 PM | #35 | |
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So you are upset that they ultimately made the right call... is that correct?
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09-29-2009, 05:54 PM | #36 | |
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With regards to Notre Dame, they're not a team that deserves to be 4-0 or compete for a national title, so it's not a big deal. Last edited by BishopMVP : 09-29-2009 at 05:55 PM. |
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09-29-2009, 06:08 PM | #37 | |
Coordinator
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I'd rather go to NYC (not that I'd want to travel to most bowls, mind you) than more than half of these crappy ass bowls. Too bad they don't have a dome, otherwise I think it could be a pretty cool bowl. |
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09-29-2009, 06:14 PM | #38 |
Pro Starter
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Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech tomorrow night on espn at 7 pm est .
Warriors looking not bad this season, QB Greg Alexander leading the nation in passing. if it weren't for the defense being overly tired and letting unlv score on there last drive of the game they would be 3-0 when many people thought they would be 1-2 at this point.
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09-29-2009, 06:27 PM | #39 | |
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The Giants/Jets really fucked up not putting a roof on their new stadium. Not really as much from the perspective that this game could have been played there, but they would've been in the Super Bowl rotation with one. |
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09-29-2009, 06:34 PM | #40 | |
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I wonder why the SEC wouldn't get involved with a bowl game outdoors in New York? |
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09-29-2009, 07:31 PM | #41 |
Dark Cloud
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Love the Yankee Bowl idea. If we're never gonna get a playoff in FBS anyway, we might as well get better venues/locales/stadiums for bowls and the Yankee Bowl trumps say, the bowl in Boise or the one in St. Petersburg.
I used to edit BBCF to put a bowl at Yankee Stadium, so glad they thought this one up.
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09-29-2009, 07:33 PM | #42 | |
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Dola. Agreed. Its two teams and they surely had the cash if they had enough to build the stadium anyway, seemed like a really poor move when it could've been retractable if they were really concerned about having the elements matter. A domed stadium would've made the Meadowlands relevant again, but...oh well.
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09-29-2009, 07:40 PM | #43 | |
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I don't think either of these teams as good as their records indicate, but you have to tip the cap to the Rams who have had the more difficult road to date.
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09-29-2009, 07:48 PM | #44 | ||||||
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I would say their defense. Quote:
I suppose....guess it just depends on who is playing. Quote:
I am thinking how friggin' cold a bowl game will be in NY in December.... Quote:
I like this.
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09-29-2009, 07:55 PM | #45 | |
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Can't find New York on the map.
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09-29-2009, 08:13 PM | #46 | |
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The Super Bowl and the Big East could have potentially developed a BCS game of their own. |
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09-29-2009, 10:09 PM | #47 |
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09-30-2009, 02:42 AM | #48 |
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The one that got torched for 467 yards and 33 pts vs. an Indiana team that didn't crack 400 against the 3 MAC teams and 490 yards/34 pts by an ND team that was killing itself with penalties? Kurt Cousins and Keith Nichols might not have the hype or the moxie of the Michigan duo, but they've led Michigan St to 21st in total offense this year. Michigan might very well win in a shootout, but they're not going to be stopping MSU or anyone with a good passing attack as long as they're starting 3 at DL and Boubacar Cissoko at corner.
Completely agreed on the weather in NY in late December - it's a large part of why the other Bowl games tried in NYC folded. |
09-30-2009, 08:48 AM | #49 | ||
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You apparently haven't been to the Indiana board over on Scout. Quote:
FWIW, Darius Willis looks to be a very good RB. With luck, the next Anthony Thompson for IU. Last edited by Kodos : 09-30-2009 at 09:01 AM. |
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09-30-2009, 09:07 AM | #50 | |
Hockey Boy
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He better turn out to be very, very awesome.
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