NO: Where did 10,000 deaths come from?

[Buccaneer]

When the Mayor announced earlier this week to be prepared for 10,000 deaths, no one questioned it. It does appear now that it will be much less. However, I had always wondered where he came up with that figure? The storm when it hit a week ago Monday did not topple any buildings (which was one of the scenarios for a Cat 4/5 hit). And the flood waters did not start rising until late Monday (on the east side). If one assumes that 20,000 were in their homes when water started rising, would it have killed half of them? Even among those that are uneducated/poor, the instinct would have been to get higher up - as they apparently did. The tens of thousands in the two large structures, despite the unprepared conditions, did not kill very many. I know it's natural to prepare for the worse (remember, 9/11 initially reported 10,000 deaths) but I still wonder on what basis for this estimate?

[Dutch]

I'm guessing he was working on "worst case" scenario. And this was when everybody was convinced President Bush conjured up the storm, so why not trump it up a bit?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm guessing he was working on "worst case" scenario. And this was when everybody was convinced President Bush conjured up the storm, so why not trump it up a bit?

yea, that's exactly why he "trumped it up"

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

When the Mayor announced earlier this week to be prepared for 10,000 deaths, no one questioned it. It does appear now that it will be much less. However, I had always wondered where he came up with that figure? The storm when it hit a week ago Monday did not topple any buildings (which was one of the scenarios for a Cat 4/5 hit). And the flood waters did not start rising until late Monday (on the east side). If one assumes that 20,000 were in their homes when water started rising, would it have killed half of them? Even among those that are uneducated/poor, the instinct would have been to get higher up - as they apparently did. The tens of thousands in the two large structures, despite the unprepared conditions, did not kill very many. I know it's natural to prepare for the worse (remember, 9/11 initially reported 10,000 deaths) but I still wonder on what basis for this estimate?

He's still trying to deflect from the fact that he didn't do his fucking job. First blame the feds, then make is so bad that no one will take the time to tell him he sucks. If he was white, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton would be calling for his head too.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Chubby

yea, that's exactly why he "trumped it up"

By "everybody", I mean not just him, but I don't really mean "everybody" either, so I apologize for not being clear.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

He's still trying to deflect from the fact that he didn't do his fucking job. First blame the feds, then make is so bad that no one will take the time to tell him he sucks. If he was white, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton would be calling for his head too.

I agree with that last sentence 110%. And while that is unfair it is simply the way the black caucus has run things the last 10 years. I hate it, i hate the race card as much as I hate racism!! Everyone bleeds Red.

[JPhillips]

It was far from just Nagin talking about 10,000 deaths. I heard a recovery guysay that he "hoped" it wouldn't be more than 10,000. We also heard reports that 25,000 body bags were ready. (Although it was never made clear whether there were 25,000 already in the area or 25,000 had been requested.) If I had time I'm pretty sure that I could find a number of other speculations of 10,000 deaths.

I think the LSU simulation had a lot to do with the number. Apparently it had done an excellent job in matching the realities on the ground and it came back with I think 25,000 or 26,000 deaths. People were afraid to go with that number publicly, but I think it was taken very seriously because of the accuracy of other parts of the simulation.

I'm not going to defend Nagin for his pre-storm actions, but unless you have some evidence that Nagin was making it up you should give it up.

And Dutch, show me one thing in print that has anyone blaming Bush for the storm itself. You didn't just make that up did you?

[sovereignstar]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And Dutch, show me one thing in print that has anyone blaming Bush for the storm itself. You didn't just make that up did you?

I doubt he'd make that up. Someone on Fox News must've said something.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Dutch

And this was when everybody was convinced President Bush conjured up the storm

*SIGH*

Everybody = Plural, meaning many people, not neccessarily the mayor, but could include him.

"conjured up the storm" = Mocking the crowds who blame President Bush for everything.

*AHHHHH*

[sovereignstar]

I blame President Bush for your sick humor.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar

I blame President Bush for your sick humor.

I blame Bill Clinton that this thread blows.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar

I blame President Bush for your sick humor.

[JPhillips]

Dutch: Was that before or after everyone on the right blamed the darkies for being dumb, drug-addicted, government sponges?

That's fair to say too, right?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Dutch: Was that before or after everyone on the right blamed the darkies for being dumb, drug-addicted, government sponges?

That's fair to say too, right?

I would never say that about black people.

[JPhillips]

Well of course by everyone on the right I didn't mean everyone and I guess what I said never really happened, but its still fair because I say so.

Right?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Well of course by everyone on the right I didn't mean everyone and I guess what I said never really happened, but its still fair because I say so.

Right?

What you are really saying is that Bush hates all black people? I don't get what your driving at.

[JPhillips]

I'm trying to point out that you constantly complain about accuracy in media but you're completely willing to make up bullshit inflamatory statements if they serve your politics. Nobody ever said anything close to "blaming Bush" for Katrina, but it fits your caricatured view of anybody that thinks differently than you.

And don't forget, you say quite plainly that you believe its possible that Nagin made up a fake death number solely embarass the President. Again, any proof whatsoever?

Dutch, I'd be more willing to buy your and many other folks outrage at the media if you were more willing to stick to the rules you claim that only the left are violating. There's plenty to criticize Nagin for, but its complete bullshit to argue that the media, Nagin(maybe or maybe not) and "THE LEFT" are working together to manipulate the likely dead number as a way to... well I'm not sure what, but something evil I'm sure.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm trying to point out that you constantly complain about accuracy in media but you're completely willing to make up bullshit inflamatory statements if they serve your politics. Nobody ever said anything close to "blaming Bush" for Katrina, but it fits your caricatured view of anybody that thinks differently than you.

The beautiful thing about a message board is that you say bullshit, I call it. I say bullshit, you call it. For the average American who picks up a newspaper or turns on a TV, where journalism is one of America's most trusted proffesion's, there is no rebuttal.

And don't forget, you say quite plainly that you believe its possible that Nagin made up a fake death number solely embarass the President. Again, any proof whatsoever?

I say he was calling out the President, he had already set a precedent of trying to embarrass President Bush and the federal government. To be fair he also was trying to blame Blanco as well so he was firing bullets out in beserk mode. But when the mayor suggests Bush is to blame for possibly "thousands dying and thousands more dying everyday", it's easy for others to believe it's fair to blame Bush.

Dutch, I'd be more willing to buy your and many other folks outrage at the media if you were more willing to stick to the rules you claim that only the left are violating.

There is a big difference between myself and the New York Times. Was I wrong for wording it how I did? Yeah, it accomplished no good. Is the New York Times (for instance) wrong for slanting so far to the left and suppressing the right-wing viewpoint? I think so.

There's plenty to criticize Nagin for, but its complete bullshit to argue that the media, Nagin(maybe or maybe not) and "THE LEFT" are working together to manipulate the likely dead number as a way to... well I'm not sure what, but something evil I'm sure.

Okay, fair enough. So back to the original question from Buccaneer (that I thread-jacked).

Why do you think he said 10,000 dead? Where did he get his information to suggest on the radio that thousands were dead and thousands more were dying every day?

[Ryche]

I think part of the problem was they followed the predictions for 10000+ dead for a direct hit to the city. But the flooding didn't occur until after the hurricane, allowing people to escape without having to do so through a hurricane.

[Qwikshot]

I bet those 10,000 are in the same place as those WMDs!

(rimshot)

[JPhillips]

I already said I think it had to do with the LSU simulation that was matching reality in other ways very closely.

Dutch, I'm just completely over the ridiculous crap that seems to be accepted for both sides. From Bush hates blacks to liberals blame Bush for hurricanes, I'm just over it. I think that rhetoric is quite plainly dangerous. We have seen vividly how unprepared the nation is for disasters. I want everyone hauled across the carpet, not for political gain but because we have to get this right. If the politicians and experts are right we'll get hit with another mass casuality terrorist attack and when that comes we have to do better.

If a truly independent investigation hammers Nagin, Blanco, and any other Dems, so be it. I'll be happier knowing that the public is safer. But, everyone needs to face the music including the President. For that to happen both sides need to let go of some of the politics and admit that almost everyone involved was negligent.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I say he was calling out the President, he had already set a precedent of trying to embarrass President Bush and the federal government. To be fair he also was trying to blame Blanco as well so he was firing bullets out in beserk mode. But when the mayor suggests Bush is to blame for possibly "thousands dying and thousands more dying everyday", it's easy for others to believe it's fair to blame Bush.

There were reports that FEMA estimated the deaths at as many as 25,000 to 40,000. So to suggest that Nagin coming up with the LOW estimate compared to Bush's own administration as a way to discredit Bush is hackish to the highest degree.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

There were reports that FEMA estimated the deaths at as many as 25,000 to 40,000. So to suggest that Nagin coming up with the LOW estimate compared to Bush's own administration as a way to discredit Bush is hackish to the highest degree.

That's not true. Look when Nagin announced the figure (which was well after the effects were known).

[clintl]

The same thing happened at the World Trade Center (initial estimates were way, way above the final toll - I seem to remember 10,000-15,000 being talked about at first, compared the actual of a little under 3,000). I also seem to remember initial fears that the toll for the Loma Prieta Earthquake in 1989 might be much higher than it turned out to be. It is not an unusual thing for officials to overestimate the potential death toll early in a big disaster based on the incomplete information they have. In fact, it seems to be the norm.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

That's not true. Look when Nagin announced the figure (which was well after the effects were known).

What, exactly, isn't true about what I said?

Nagin downgraded the estimates of the federal government in an effort to make Bush look bad? That doesn't even make sense.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by clintl

The same thing happened at the World Trade Center (initial estimates were way, way above the final toll - I seem to remember 10,000-15,000 being talked about at first, compared the actual of a little under 3,000).

Guiliani was just trying to make Bush look bad

[andy m]

its amazing that a bunch of folks have died yet some people focus on any tiny little angle of the situation that can be exploited and then magnify it with a super powerful microscope so as to push their own weak-ass political agenda.

life isn't sports! its not a competition. stop waving flags, tooting horns and beating chests and start giving a shit about other people. then read this book by an 82 year old guy who has figured everything out. man.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by andy m

its amazing that a bunch of folks have died yet some people focus on any tiny little angle of the situation that can be exploited and then magnify it with a super powerful microscope so as to push their own weak-ass political agenda.

life isn't sports! its not a competition. stop waving flags, tooting horns and beating chests and start giving a shit about other people. then read this book by an 82 year old guy who has figured everything out. man.

Thank you, Andy.

Almost everybody in America wanted to do something to help our own in New Orleans. I've donated my hard earned money to the Red Cross. I've donated my time at a relief shelter for evacuees. And I turn on the TV and Jesse Jackson is telling me I'm a racist.

Something's got to give, enough is enough. The media should focus on the good news and good people as well, and stop worrying about how much money they stand to make.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Dutch

What you are really saying is that Bush hates all black people? I don't get what your driving at.

I think Kayne West already proved this point

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

What, exactly, isn't true about what I said?

Nagin downgraded the estimates of the federal government in an effort to make Bush look bad? That doesn't even make sense.

That no one gave any type of official/unofficial death toll after the disasters struck. Most we've heard was "in the thousands, like more". All of the published references to Nagin's "10,000" was stated as "revised upward" to that figure. I'm not talking about pre-disaster computer simulations but after the levees broke in which there were an estimated 20,000 not rescued.

[clintl]

It was an estimate, Bucc, based on incomplete information. Anyone reading everything else that was being reported would know that the number Nagin was talking could be way, way off, because nobody even knew how many people stayed in their homes. And they still don't.

At worst, Nagin spouted off a number with nothing to back it up to motivate the feds to accelerate their slow response. If that's what he did, good for him. It helped save lives.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

That no one gave any type of official/unofficial death toll after the disasters struck.

I challenge you to point out where I said that. I said that there were reports coming out of the NOLA area that FEMA was estimating (internally) 25k-40k, worst case.

[JPhillips]

Buc: My understanding is that the LSU simulation was so accurate as to the events happening in reality that it became a tool to predict likely outcomes during the week after the hurricane. Because much of what it predicted about the water, environmental damage, and other things was so accurate it was only natural to use its death count as a baseline. In the end I think the big numbers for possible deaths originated from the data in the LSU simulation.

[Masked]

Also, the simulations and scenarios drawn up by FEMA and others assumed that about 65% percent of the people would evacuate. Apparently 80% evacuated.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Masked

Also, the simulations and scenarios drawn up by FEMA and others assumed that about 65% percent of the people would evacuate. Apparently 80% evacuated.

You should check your numbers, there is no way that is possible. After all, if the case was that the disaster was Nagin's fault for not evacuating everyone, as so many Bush apologists suggest, there is no way that the LA officials would have gotten more people out than FEMA was planning for. I mean, it's not like the apologists would be making stuff up.