OT: 2003 Kentucky Derby

[QuikSand]

As the first Saturday in May approaches (that's just a few days away, of you're keeping count), it's once again time to talk about the greatest two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby.

This year, we have a heavy favorite in EMPIRE MAKER, a horse who has won his last two races in very impressive fashion, and is likely to go off at close to even money on Saturday. He has wonderful breeding, and looks like he'll be well placed against this field -- some are already using words like "superhorse" and "Triple Crown" a little prematurely, but in this season that's the sort of thing that you see.

This year's Derby will be my first missed Triple Crown race in a few years... one more reason to suspect that this could be the year of a Triple Crown winner. Either way - if there's a potential TC on the line, it makes my annual Belmont trip much more exciting.

Anyway - without beating this to death, I thought that a thread on this subject might be timely. Anyone care about this? Anyone planning to watch and/or bet the race? Anyone going to be there?

[QuikSand]

Here is the content of an email I recently sent to a group of friends, who wanted a little skinnyon the race in advance:

- - -

Well, it's certain that EMPIRE MAKER will look the favorite on paper. He has that look of a horse who fits well into the role, much like Fusaichi Pegasus a few years ago (the only favorite to win this thing in the last two decades). Last time out, EMPIRE MAKER posted a huge speed figure, but if you saw the race - you saw a horse that did just as little as was asked of him, pocketed the $450,000 first place check, and came out plenty fresh. He's got wonderful breeding - his sire Unbridled lends the right sort of precocity for a developing colt, and his mare is a Euro turfer - Frankel commented that "he's bred to run six miles." And even back when he was running greenly at the outset of this year, he made a really nice move in traffic - exactly the sort of ability that you want from a horse who will have to work through rivals on Saturday.

Jerry Bailey has all but said this is the horse. As for tactics - they don't care. They will run up with a slow pace, or they will sit off a hot pace. Bailey will keep him poines, and he knows that this horse will rav up with a tap, and will roll whenver he "pushes the button." That's a nice phrase to hear with a Derby horse, by the way - it's code for "this horse can show a real burst of speed, and can summon it whever it's asked for."

The horse, simply put, deserves to be even money, and probably will be.


Is he unbeatable? Of course not. He could falter, he could get trapped in traffice, he could let the pacesetters get away from him, he could not respond well to the crowd, he could have trouble with the footing, or he coudl be on of many many wonderful horses who just don't take well to the Churchill Downs surface (think Skip Away). Also, it's certainly possible that another horse (remember, 3yos are all still developing physically) make a big leap forward in performance, and posts a stunner. All those horses who won prep races at 40-1 have already made a big jump up (that's why they were 40-1) it's certainly not unthinkable that the apparent hest horse coming in is not actually the best horse on Saturday.

All that said... it's good news on either front. If you like the big guy, you have a shot to see a superhorse - and we can really speculate about the Triple Crown with this one, as the only real question should be the ability to run back in two weeks.

If you don't liek the big guy, then there's money to be made. With maybe 60% of the betting going to one horse, there's going to be tempting odds all over the pace if you bet against him. BUDDY GIL comes off two straight wins in Southern California, a G II and the GI Santa Anita Derby, and he'll probably go off at something like 8-1 or 10-1. The fifth or sixth choice in the betting is likely to be 15-1 this year. It will be crazy, if you're looking for value. And if EMPIRE MAKER runs out fo the money for any reason, the exotics will pay a damned fortune.

[Frozenrope]

I heard that Empire Maker was hurt. Is that true?

Love watching the Derby, even though I'm not a big horse racing follower. Have been to Arlington Race Track a couple of times, though. Even had my picture in the winner's circle once.

[QuikSand]

EMPIRE MAKER came up with a minor injury to his foot yesterday - the sort of thing that (by most accounts) wouldn't even be noteworthy in ordinary circumstances, but with so many reporters around the Churchill Downs backstretch, it's a headline grabber.

This is, as it turns out, the stuff that makes up the fabric of the great horse races. Years ago, a wonderful horse named Spectacular Bid won teh Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and was a heavy favorite to take the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont. The morning of the race, his trainer reported that he had inadvertently stepped on a safety pin that was somehow left near his stall. The trainer dismissed it, but when the horse ran in the Belmont, he came up somewhat flat... and lost out.

To this day, there are those who will sum up their discussion about "The Bid" by saying "if it weren't for that damned safety pin..." suggesting that 100% of the blame lies with that fluky injury. (I take another view - watch the race and you can see that the jockey moved him too soon, and the trainer was focusing on trying to earn a monstrous win a la Secretariat... indeed, it was because he tried to run against the echoes of Big Red that he ended up losing to a number of forgotten horses who were actually on the racetrack that day.)


Anyway... who knows? A few years ago, a pretty heavy Derby favorite (Unbridled's Song) came into the race training on a quarter-crack to a hoof, which had been downplayed by all his connections as no big deal. He ran totally flat in the Derby, and afterwards, it looked like the injury was a pretty serious one - they just had a bad case of "Derby Fever" and looked past it. It happens.

EMPIRE MAKER's trainer has been winning damed near everything in sight lately - he's easily the giant in horse training in North America right now. However, he has only very recently gotten into the 3yo game - last year, Medaglia D'Oro was his first TC entry, I believe. Regardless - Bobby Frankel might be a superstar trainer, but he might be overanxious to get this, the obvious missing piece for his impressive mantlepice. Who knows what we'll be saying Sunday morning?

[Butter]

I always enjoy watching all 3 Triple Crown races, though I don't follow the sport aside from those 3, really.

It's always fun having a horse win the first 2 who's not really expected to, though it's almost always predictable that they'll come up short in the much longer Belmont. Just like last year. I felt bad for that horse (forget the name), but the Belmont is such a different race from the other 2, that winning all 3 is really an amazing feat.

[Franklinnoble]

I'll be watching... wish I could go.

I liked Empire Maker before the injury story... now I'll have to see how he moves in the post parade... my opinion is that it's a bigger deal than most would have you believe.

I like Indian Express. All my other Derby favorites are off the trail (Kafwain, Sky Mesa, and Vindication, to name a few). I also think Brancusi has a shot. I think Atswhatimtalkinabout is terribly overrated. I think Peace Rules has been lucky. I think I'd like Buddy Gil if he still had his nuts. I like Funny Cide as a sentimental pick. Ten Cents A Shine could place well. Domestic Dispute is solid, but not quite Derby material, in my estimation. All the other entrants are pretty well below my radar... doesn't mean they're no good, just that I haven't seen them enough to make an opinion of them.

I'm a horse racing nut, and I wish there was a decent horse racing sim out there...

[QuikSand]

The fascinating thing about the three race series in modern racing is that they demand such different things from the participants.

The Kentucky Derby requires that the horses handle a very large, crowded field - and that they carry 126 pounds (much more than tmost have every carried before) over a distance of 1 1/4 miles (again, much more than most have ever been asked to run). It's a tough test - that raises issues of breeding, training, and conditioning every bit as much as simple talent.

The Preakness is run only two weeks later - a shorter recovery priod that most of these horses are used to. It also is run over a track that has a historical speed and rail bias - meaning that positioning is very important. A related factor is that the turns at Pimlico are relatively tight - meaning the ability to make a move on the outside of the turn is compromised somewhat-- another strategic consideration at Old Hilltop, Pimlico Racecourse. It's slightly shorter than the Derby - but provides its own challenges, often including some "fresh" horses who skipped the Derby and instead focues on the second jewel - itself a $1 million race.

The Belmont is run at a full 1 1/2 miles - a distance far beyond nearly anything else in major horseracing today. Horses running in all three events find themselves running three races in five weeks, rather than their more typical leisurely prep schedule. Conditioning obviously is important, but breeding is very important as well - horses with a short pedigree often find that last quarter mile just too far to go. (Nothing against them - there aren't many bona fide 1 1/2 mile horses around any longer) Belmont, physically, is the opposite of Pimlico - it has monstously wide, sweeping turns, and the tactical advantages are practically reversed.

Indeed - winning the three races in sequence is quire uncommon, and deservedly so. We've now gone a quarter century since the last Triple Crown winner, and some think that this is the norm rather than the exception. (Three in the 1970s might have been the exception) So, after this Saturday - all the focus lands onto one horse, and he's the only one who can carry the mantle forward.

Exciting stuff, I tell you!

[Franklinnoble]

Agreed. So do you play simulated sports horse racing online?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Franklinnoble
Agreed. So do you play simulated sports horse racing online?

Tried it twice, and neither time did it realy stick with me. I can't explain why, it just wasn't my thing, I guess. Odd, since the subject is much more to my general liking than, say, Hattrick.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Tried it twice, and neither time did it realy stick with me. I can't explain why, it just wasn't my thing, I guess. Odd, since the subject is much more to my general liking than, say, Hattrick.

I have a hard time sticking with it, too. For a while, I was really into it... ran my horses every two weeks, had a stable full of homebreds with potential... but it's too crowded, really, and just not much fun after a while.

That's why I think the market is ripe for a decent text-based horse racing sim...

[lynchjm24]

I go to Belmont every year as well. Last year was a circus.

I did hear Francesa talking about the injury today, mentioning that it could just be Frankel looking for potential excuses.

I'm not sure who I'm going to bet, but it won't be EMPIRE MAKER. I'll probably stick em in the back end of my Tri/Superfectas.

Side note: Is there a better bet then the Superfecta. It's fun to just say.

[Franklinnoble]

"Superfecta" sounds pretty cool... on the other hand, I always thought "Quinella" sounded pretty gay.

[QuikSand]

Right now, I am looking to build a trifect behind EMPIRE MAKER. I know, I know - the real money lies in beating him, bu I thin he's the real deal, and will single him on top of my betting, I suspect.

At the moment, the horses I am considering for my betting are, in some sort of order, are:

EMPIRE MAKER
- - -
TEN MOST WANTED
SIR CHEROKEE
FUNNY CIDE
- - -
SCRIMSHAW
ATSWHATIMTALKINBOUT
BUDDY GIL
OFFLEE WILD


And at the moment, my trifecta prediction is:

EMPIRE MAKER
SIR CHEROKEE
TEN MOST WANTED

[Bee]

TEN MOST WANTED looks strong.

[QuikSand]

Rats!

There are reports that SIR CHEROKEE has been scratched from the race. That screws up my betting strategy completely - I have him figured very prominently in my trifecta betting.

Arrrrgh!

[MizzouRah]

Indian Express is definitly intriguing to say the least.

Isn't there a Horce Racing sim?

I loved playing Steeple Chase on the Atari.


Todd

[Anrhydeddu]

Mizzou: Around these parts, we played Hooves of Thunder and its sequel, QuarterPole Plus.

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by Anrhydeddu
Mizzou: Around these parts, we played Hooves of Thunder and its sequel, QuarterPole Plus.

Thanks, I'll check it out.



Todd

[QuikSand]

Todd, even though I moaned and whined about Hooves of Thunder for tear, claiming that just one update or patch would make it a great game - I'd still recommend it over its successor. In addition to being cheaper (it might still be available for free at www.the-underdogs.org ), the QPP game raised a number of very troubling problems, which don't seem to have been resolved by the recent (but not promoted) "patch."

At the very least - give HoT a try first, if you're looking for that kind of thing.

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Todd, even though I moaned and whined about Hooves of Thunder for tear, claiming that just one update or patch would make it a great game - I'd still recommend it over its successor. In addition to being cheaper (it might still be available for free at www.the-underdogs.org ), the QPP game raised a number of very troubling problems, which don't seem to have been resolved by the recent (but not promoted) "patch."

At the very least - give HoT a try first, if you're looking for that kind of thing.

Thanks QS!


Todd

[Franklinnoble]

Has the new Gallop Racer come out yet?

GP 2001 wasn't bad... I mean, it wasn't great, or even really that good... but it's pretty much the only console horse racing game out there.

[Craptacular]

Originally posted by QuikSand

There are reports that SIR CHEROKEE has been scratched from the race.

Just in case anyone is wondering, this has been confirmed by the AP:
Longshot Sir Cherokee out of Kentucky Derby

[daedalus]

QS . . .

I don't know if you've done so before already but would you mind discussing the posts and what the significance are? And what effect it might have on this year's derby?

[QuikSand]

This year, I don't see much of any impact from the post positions.

In the post draw, there are really two things that you might look for as significant:

-speed horses (who want to be on or near the early lead) getting a far outside draw; and

-fractious horses (that act up) having to wait a long time in the gate before being sent off


This year, the early speed is probably INDIAN EXPRESS, who is right in the middle at #9 (got a fairl early selection - surprised me by not going a little more inside) - so no problem there. And the other speedy horses are fairly placed, too: #2 BRANCUSI, #5 PEACE RULES, and #6 FUNNY CIDE are all fine.

And in this year's field, theer aren't any really temperamental horses - actually, EMPIRE MAKER is the closest in the field, but he's not a real problem. So, I think the position is basically a non-factor - it hasn't altered my thinking at all.

[QuikSand]

At this point, I'm moving TEN CENTS A SHINE into my "contenders" pool, and he will probably be worked into my exotic betting.

My thinking: He, like so many horses, has "a story." His last few races (stinkers all) are now being attributed to a tooth problem, discovered during a recent MRI exam. Now that the offending tooth has been removed, we expect him to get back on track. And, when he runs well - like he did his last two races at Churchill Downs, for example - he looks pretty decent. Add in the fact that he drilled a very nice 59 and 1 a few days ago (his second bullet training at CD)...and there's reason to think he may be rounding back into form at the right time.

50 to 1 ? I'm in.


I'm taking a stand against most of the second-tier horses... I won't be using PEACE RULES, BUDDY GIL, or FUNNY CIDE in my betting, I don't think.

Right now, it's probably:

EMPIRE MAKER
TEN MOST WANTED
- - -
ATSWHATIMTALKINBOUT
TEN CENTS A SHINE
OFFLEE WILD

With only five horses, that's a fairly easy group to cover for a trifecta. Hell, I could box all five for a $60 bet (though I will probably key my top two over the rest, for $24, as my main trifecta wager)

[QuikSand]

$2

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by QuikSand
With only five horses, that's a fairly easy group to cover for a trifecta. Hell, I could box all five for a $60 bet (though I will probably key my top two over the rest, for $24, as my main trifecta wager)

The danger of course being on that $60 bet it might not pay $60.

EMPIRE MAKER/TEN MOST WANTED/ALL I'm sure will be quite popular.

I don't think I've ever been less decisive on a TC race. Oh well, still plenty of time to mull.

[Franklinnoble]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Empire Maker will bomb, a la Point Given, and Indian Express will win the Derby.

[QuikSand]

I dunno, Jim... the Derby pretty much always pays pretty well. With 17 individual entries, it's pretty certain that even the wiseguy-wiseguy combo will do fairly well. I suspect the EM/TMW exacta will project to $20 or more.

I'm thining back to Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude... as I recall, that was a pretty solid exacta payout. (Though I admit Aptitude was slightly less "buzz" than TMW has right now)

[FishFan]

I like WAR EMBLEM winning wire-to-wire over PROUD CITIZEN.

What happened to SCRIMSHAW, Quik? Why'd he fall off your list of exotic considerations? I saw the horse down in Keeneland two weeks ago and liked what I saw. He moved well, ran well, paid well. The two week turnaround may be a bit too much and the 17th post doesn't help, but this horse can do it if EMPIRE MAKER is a little flat.

I just don't want to see a replay of last year's race with a Baffert horse getting out to an early, slow, unchallenged pace and running away with the damn thing, which could happen with INDIAN EXPRESS.

I'm considering the following in my exotics:

EMPIRE MAKER
SCRIMSHAW
TEN MOST WANTED
FUNNY CIDE
SUPAH BLITZ

[FishFan]

Too bad you're not going this year, Quik. I'm leaving about 4am tomorrow for Churchill so the FOF will still have some representation at the Derby.

[QuikSand]

I am still undecided about SCRIMSHAW... I know the Lukas thing, but the Lexington simply wasn't run fast enough to rate it anywhere near the real prep races this year (Wood, Bluegreass, Arkansas, Illinois, Florida). SCRIMSHAW beat the field, but what was in the field? Minister's Wild Cat? Whatever. I am generally inclined to toss him onn those grounds... but I realize I do so at some risk (there are so many signs that he should be taken seriously).

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Fan or not this is one of the can't miss sporting event for a sports fan ...like The Super Bowl Daytona 500 and World Series .

[FishFan]

FWIW, SCRIMSHAW beat EYE OF THE TIGER and DOMESTIC DISPUTE in that race as well, but I see your point. I expect him to improve in his second start after his short layoff and return to his earlier form where he posted a 104 Beyer rating earlier in his career.

I'm liking BUDDY GIL the more I look at his past performance....

EMPIRE MAKER, SCRIMSHAW

with

EMPIRE MAKER, SCRIMSHAW, BUDDY GIL, TEN MOST WANTED

with

EMPIRE MAKER, SCRIMSHAW, BUDDY GIL, TEN MOST WANTED, INDIAN EXPRESS, SUPAH BLITZ

[lynchjm24]

Rumor this morning on the FAN EMPIRE MAKER is now at 8-1.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I dunno, Jim... the Derby pretty much always pays pretty well. With 17 individual entries, it's pretty certain that even the wiseguy-wiseguy combo will do fairly well. I suspect the EM/TMW exacta will project to $20 or more.

I was half kidding about the $60.

I haven't hit a TC exacta since the 2001 Preakness - at least that paid 81.20 IIRC.

I still have no idea what I'm going to do - so if anyone feels really strongly please speak up now .

[B & B]

EM is 3/2 at one of my books currently

[Honolulu Blue]

I plan to watch the race on TV. One of my co-workers goes to the Derby every year and this time I gave her betting instructions.

As an amateur horse picker, here are my views:

There are five horses that look to have a good shot to win the Derby - TEN MOST WANTED, EMPIRE MAKER, BUDDY GIL, FUNNY CIDE, and PEACE RULES.

TEN MOST WANTED looks OK, but not at 6-1, and the early money has even shorter odds. I'd start to like him at 10-1.

EMPIRE MAKER has QS - and others - all excited, for good reason. I think he's good, but not that good. You have to show me more than he has to make him an even money favorite against 15 other horses. The early money has him at 8-1, which is a ridiculously good buy. I don't expect him to go off near those odds. But anything better than 3-1 looks attractive.

The other three I like about evenly (BUDDY GIL a little more than the other two, but just a little). The morning line put BUDDY GIL and PEACE RULES at 8-1 with FUNNY CIDE at 15-1. The early line hasn't moved much from those figures, which makes me happy for now because those are the three I put my money on. I'd be happy if BG goes off better than 5-1, PR better than 6-1, and FC better than 10-1.

Of course, this article is for entertainment purposes only and not meant as investment advice.

[QuikSand]

If EMPIRE MAKES holds at odds over 5-2, he actually becomes an overlay in the win pool, by my board. I didn't think that was possible... but Derby Day odds are sometimes a weird happening.

[QuikSand]

As of this moment, for those who are interested, EMPIRE MAKER stands at 9-2, while TEN MOST WANTED is threatening to become the actual favorite, at 5-1, joined there by BUDDY GIL. Good heavens.

[Senator]

How can you not take EMPIRE MAKER at those odds. Geeze. Last night I liked TEN MOST WANTED at 8-1, but not now. At 9-2, EMPIRE MAKER is true value.

[QuikSand]

Remember (for those new to this) - when you bet a horse, you get his final odds, not what is posted at the moment you bet. So, if EMPIRE MAKER gets a late rush of wagers (which one might expect considering the movement of his odds thus far), he could easily go off at 5-2 or 2-1, not his current 9-2. And if you bet now, you just get the final actual odds - you're at the mercy of the other bettors, as always.

[Senator]

I know Quik, this is my 30th Kentucky Derby in a row to watch. But even at 5-2 or 2-1; I think that is a real shock considering this horse looks this good.

But since Pat Day is the king of sandbagging, I never discount him on a good horse.

[QuikSand]

Well, as usual... I'm doing better on the "big race day" undercard than I do on the feaure. Just hit my second straight exacta... this one might be pretty tasty, with a 24-1 shot on top.

[MrBug708]

I'm calling Peace Rules


I'm probably wrong, but I want it to stand as is

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Well, as usual... I'm doing better on the "big race day" undercard than I do on the feaure. Just hit my second straight exacta... this one might be pretty tasty, with a 24-1 shot on top.

Lets get the Preakness 'undercard' up early in the day then.

I went straight 20$ win bets on Scrimshaw and Indian Express.

[Ksyrup]

I don't anything about horse racing, but I've never seen a guy beat the hell out of a horse llike that guy did down the stretch.

[Ksyrup]

So who's going to crack the first joke about the fact that Empire Maker beat Peace Rules?

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
So who's going to crack the first joke about the fact that Empire Maker beat Peace Rules?

Ummmm.......you?

[mrskippy]

A casterated horse won the derby.