Sorenstam, How Will She do?

[Marmel]

How will Sorenstam do at this week's PGA Golf Tournament.

[Marmel]

I think she will make the cut, but that is about it. If she continues to play in these events she will eventually have a top 10 finish along the way, but I don't think she could compete week in and week out with the guys.

[Bee]

I give her about a 3 outta 4 chance of making the cut.

[KWhit]

I don't think there is any way she will make the cut.

[Ryche]

I doubt she'll make the cut, but I'll be watching the tournament this weekend, which is unusual for me as I usually only watch the last round of majors. If nothing else, the tourney should get a nice ratings bump.

[The Afoci]

I put up a top 25 finish. She is a very solid player. But the more I think now, the pressure may cause her to do really bad. I don't know, it will be interesting though.

[3ric]

She'll make the cut if she plays up to her normal standards.

[Senator]

I think I will go see it live. Anybody want me to make a sign and follow her around?

[Samdari]

I think that way too much will be made out her performance in this one tournament. Once you get outside the top 20 players, these guys finish all over the place. The 75th best golfer on tour in 10 tournaments probably misses four cuts, finishes top 25 once or twice, and 25-75th the rest of the time. Annika, if she's at all PGA Tour caliber golfer, would be in that range. If she plays at the top of her game, she could contend for the top 25. If she has a bad week (which ALL of the Tour golfers have) she'll miss the cut. I think for a fair assessment, she'd have to play a whole season, but since it would be way too risky for her to give her LPGA duties to go to Q-school, we'll never know.

Senator, I imagine if you carried around a sign that said, "SkyDog plays with dolls" we would all know it was you.

[KWhit]

Originally posted by Samdari
If she plays at the top of her game, she could contend for the top 25.

I really don't think so. She does not have the distance to compete.

When most of the men will be hitting 7 irons into a green, she'll be hitting a 4 iron. The difference in the margin of error for those two clubs is huge. Every hole she plays she'll be at a big disadvantage. She'll be hitting at least 2-3 clubs more to get the ball to the green. Her short game is so good that she'll be able to make up some of this disparity, but not enough to make the cut.

[KWhit]

Dola -

But it does make for some excellent TV. I will definitely be watching.

[henry296]

Last year the cut was at 143 or 3 over par on the par 70 course. I think if Sorenstam plays solid in a LPGA event at Colonial she would shot around 67. That would be 6 under for 36 holes. I think it will be real close because I think playing from the Men's tees will add about 5 shots per round to her score. That would put her at 144 or just outside last year's cut. She needs to be focused and play above average to make the cut. I think she does it.

Todd

[Shkspr]

How in the hell does someone who drives 275 off the tee not have the distance to compete?

[TroyF]

275 puts her at about 168th on the PGA tour driving list.

It does, however, put her ahead of someone like Jose Marie Olathabel (SP) He's played 10 tournaments this year, made the cut in 5, missed 5 cuts and has 1 top ten.

I'm hoping Annika makes the cut. The pressure on her will be INTENSE. If she just makes the cut, it'll be a terrific performence.

TroyF

[tucker342]

She'll be very lucky to make the cut

[Shkspr]

275 also puts her within 5 yards of thirty or forty other players, and within ten yards of another thirty or forty. The PGA tour as a whole averaged about 280 last year; I just don't see her length off the tee being an issue, particularly when the golf course hasn't been built yet that requires 300 yard drives for effective course management.

Sorenstam is an exceptionally accurate striker; I think she can more than compensate for the extra club she'll need. I've read people talk like she's going to be banging in 4 irons where the men are playing close to wedges, and that's just not accurate in the least (sorry, KWhit). The spread between more than half the field and her is one club, MAYBE two, and she hits it straighter than most of them.

Now, how will she do this weekend? I have no earthly idea. Samdari's thoughts pretty much parallel mine, though I think that if she wants to try for a Tour card, she's capable of winning a smaller tournament without a strong field. I mean, sure, she's no Vijay Singh (she doesn't cheat ), but what magical skills do the Esteban Toledos and the Phil Tataurangis of the world possess that allowed them to have top 10 finishes in last year's Colonial that Sorenstam lacks?

[GoldenEagle]

I dont thik she will make the cut, but she will not finish dead last.

[KWhit]

Originally posted by Shkspr
I've read people talk like she's going to be banging in 4 irons where the men are playing close to wedges, and that's just not accurate in the least (sorry, KWhit).

Jeez, did I say that?

Nope.

I said 7 iron to 4 iron. That's a lot different than what you are attributing to me.

I guarantee you that there will be MANY (if not most) holes where she'll have to hit a shot 3 clubs longer than the average male in the field. Can she make up that difference? Of course, if she has a near-perfect round. But the odds are against her making the cut, IMO.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by KWhit
I really don't think so. She does not have the distance to compete.

She will undoubtedly be hitting longer clubs into greens than almost all of the men. But, she does have enough distance to be playing to the green in regulation. If she hits those 4 irons well, gets the ball close and putts well, she will beat guys who yank their pitching wedges into traps and have trouble getting up and down. There are many of those each week.

Also, don't forget, she chose THIS tournament for a reason. This course features many holes where the risks of hitting it farther than 275 outweigh the benefits, thus many men are hitting irons or fairway woods off the tee. She can hit driver on those and play the men even.

btw, perusing the driving distance stats, I notice Mike Wier in about 120th place, with 285. He is the 5th ranked player in the world. That is a bit inflated due to his recent Master's win, but he is legitimately a top 10 player. One can obviously make up for the lack of length with other parts of the game.

[MJ4H]

Originally posted by Senator
I think I will go see it live. Anybody want me to make a sign and follow her around?

Yes, please.

[Arles]

I don't know about this distance thing being as big a factor as ESPN makes it out to be. Golf has never been a sport dominated by long drivers. Here are the top 10 money winners and their average drive:

1 Davis Love III - 296.5 (17)
2 Mike Weir - 286.2 (84)
3 Tiger - 290.8 (50)
4 Vijay Singh - 301.2 (6)
5 Ernie Els - 304.9 (4)
6 Jim Furyk - 278.3 (144)
7 David Toms - 288.3 (69)
8 Jay Haas - 279.0 (143)
9 Justin Leonard - 279.5 (138)
10 Chad Campbell - 291.8 (40)

Only four of those guys rank in the top 50 in drives, with four within 5 yards of Sorenstam.

So, this whole idea that she will be using a four iron when other guys are using a seven doesn't mean much on just that level. Guys like Haas, Leonard and Furyk are experts with their long irons and use them all the time on tour.

The big difference is that I don't know that Annika has the ability with those long irons that the short-driving men do as she hasn't needed them much in the ladies tour. But, if she can keep her accuracy on par with the four and five irons, there's no reason to think that she can't finish in the top 25. Of course, that's a big if.

My prediction is that she will barely make the cut, but not get a sniff of the leaderboard. I think that if Annika played the men's tour for a year and had a chance to hone her 4-7 iron game, she could be extremely competitive to the men. But, expecting her to go from playing in tournaments were she uses a long iron sparingly to one where she needs to use it every hole will be tough.

Arlie

[KWhit]

Found this little tidbit:

Smoltz Beats Annika

John Smoltz played a round with Annika last weekend. He beat her by 2 strokes. Yes, John Smoltz, the closer for the Atlanta Braves. Smoltz is a professional athlete, but not a professional golfer. Unless Annika has a lights-out round, she is history.

[Fritz]

I understand that Smoltz is on record as considering pro golf (and could qualify) after baseball.

I also understand that Sorenstam hedged a little when picking this event because it is more favorable than some PGA events to her style of play.

[The Afoci]

I don't know who should do this, maybe a Fritz/Kodos collaboration poll of "Sorenstam, Who will she do?"

[KWhit]

Originally posted by Fritz
I understand that Smoltz is on record as considering pro golf (and could qualify) after baseball.

He is a scratch golfer, which means he can shoot even par on a typical course. I don't think he has the ability to shoot many-undure par under tournament conditions on courses that are set up to be longer, tighter, and more penalizing than a typical course.

I also understand that Sorenstam hedged a little when picking this event because it is more favorable than some PGA events to her style of play.

I agree here. She had her pick of a few (at least 3-4) events and she felt this one fit her game the best.


Would anyone who thinks she will make the cut like to put their money where their mouth is? I'd be happy to take your money.

[Joe Canadian]

I laugh when I hear all this debate on the Colonial. Since when can you judge a golfer on one tournament? People seem to think that if Annika misses the cut, it proves that she can't compete with men. I think she'll make the cut, and there's a slight chance she'll hit top 25.

What if she misses the cut? What will happen will be that the media will have a field day saying that she can't compete, and I'm sure they'll be threads here regarding the fact she can't compete. IMO it makes little difference if she makes the cut or not in here first tournament?

I wonder what the stats are on first time PGA tour players making the cut on their first tournament. I don't know exactly but I'd say it's pretty low.

In order for us to judge wether or not she can compete we'll have to see her in 5-10 tournaments.

----

End Rant.

[KWhit]

Annika is the one who says she is playing in order to see how she fares against the men.

In fact in her own words: "I am curious to see how well my game stands up to all these guys."

So if she REALLY wants to see how well she can do against the male golfers, maybe she should go to Q-school and try to make the tour. That way she'll be able to play in all the PGA tournaments she wants. That's the only way she'll see how well she competes against the men.

[Joe Canadian]

She was invited to compete in the Colonial. So obviously she is curious of how she'll do. But I don't think she said that this one tournament will gauge if she can compete on a regular basis with men.

It wasn't her idea to play in the tournament, and I don't think it is her intention to play the PGA Tour on a regular basis, if at all after this weekend.

[Pumpy Tudors]

There are only two par-5 holes on the entire course. Distance won't be a problem for Annika. Regardless of how she does in the tournament, though, don't be surprised if they make the course 1000 yards longer before next year's tournament.

So what's up with the poll about how she'll do? I mean, we don't know how she'll do, so what does the poll tell us?

[robbgmaier]

Annika Sorenstam.......would ya.......you know?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by robbgmaier
Annika Sorenstam.......would ya.......you know?

I'm a firm believer that fame adds say, 3 points, on the infamous 1 to 10 scale. You, know for forever getting to brag that you bagged someone famous. That could be worth more than three, but for me, the three bonus points easily have Anika within doable range.

[KWhit]

Yeah. She's semi-cute.

[jefflackey]

I've attended a few PGA tourneys and a few LPGA tourneys. Based on that small experience, the courses on the LPGA are set up easier in several ways than those on the men's courses. One thing that I noticed was that the roughs in all three LPGA tourneys were quite a bit shorter and more thinned out that those on the men's courses. One area where Tiger has shown an advantage over a lot of other men on the Tour is his strength out of the rough - he can get into places where a lot of men will simply try to hit into the fairway, and he'll blast it all the way to the green.

If the deep cabbage on this course is set up the way it is on a lot of these courses, her lack of strength will hurt her if she's off the fairway.

I'm interested in how this will come out. The general belief is that the best LPGA players can beat most men NOT on the PGA, and the worst players on the PGA can beat the best players on the LPGA. We'll test that this weekend (not prove, but test.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm about the least golf savvy guy here I imagine, but something KWhit said reminded me of some trivia I ran across recently.

The USGA definition of par is Par is the score that an expert golfer would be expected to make for a given hole. Par means errorless play under ordinary weather conditions, allowing two strokes on the putting green.

The USGA definition of scratch golfer is A male scratch golfer is an amateur player who plays to the standard of the field of stroke-play qualifiers competing at the U.S. Amateur Championship site. A male scratch golfer can hit tee shots an average of 250 yards and can reach a 470-yard hole in two shots.

A female scratch golfer is an amateur player who plays to the standard of the field of stroke-play qualifiers at the U.S. Women?s Amateur Championship site. A female scratch golfer can hit tee shots an average of 210 yards and can reach a 400-yard hole in two shots.

http://www.usga.org/handicap/manual/2002_manual/index.html

[Airhog]

Originally posted by KWhit
Yeah. She's semi-cute.

Hmm and you didnt post a picture? Shame on you...

[GoldenEagle]

Yea post the picture.

[Blade6119]

no...i saw SI....dont post a pic!!!

[Pumpy Tudors]

Who here doesn't already know what Annika Sorenstam looks like?

[WillyWTE]

I wish her well and hope she at least makes the cut. If Vijay would have stuck around it would have been damn interesting too see them pair up tomorrow.

[Samdari]

Would anyone who thinks she will make the cut like to put their money where their mouth is? I'd be happy to take your money.

You giving the same 4-1 odds as Vegas? You know somewhere we could get the money held?