Fantasy Football advice 2013 edition

[CleBrownsfan]

Here is our scoring system for rushing/receiving:

1 pnt for every 10 yards Rush/Receiving (2 pnt bonus going over 100yards)
6 pnt TD's (+2 pnt for a score over 50 yards)
.5 pnt for rec
-1 fumble


I'm drafting #2 in a 10 person league (start 2 RB/2WR and a flex). I was set drafting Foster at #2 but with injuries and seeing his yards per rushing attempt drop the past two years I'm not sold on taking him. I like CJ Spiller a lot this year - but taking him at #2 may be a reach... any advise?

[spleen1015]

I think Doug Martin is the #2 RB behind AP this year.

[PurdueBrad]

I would go Martin or Foster. Given that they've announced Foster is a definite for week 1 and the fact that Martin has now had a pre-season concussion, I would rate them equally. I tend to lean Foster because of the schedule but either one.

[spleen1015]

I think it was said that Martin didn't have a concussion.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I think it was said that Martin didn't have a concussion.

You are correct. I never caught that he passed the tests and just heard the initial. Thanks Spleen!

[rowech]

Picking 12th in a 12 team lead where passing TDs are worth 6 points. Standard everywhere else - not a PPR.

One pick will be a RB that I figure will be at worst Forte. My second pick is tormenting me. I could see Calvin, Bryant, or Green there. I could see Brees or Rogers there. I could also see taking somebody like Chris Johnson or MJD. Thoughts?

[sooner333]

I took Doug Martin with the second pick. I was worried about Foster's injury being one of a lingering nature. But I also felt it was a really boring fantasy pick. If this league allowed for PPR I would at least have considered Spiller.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by rowech

Picking 12th in a 12 team lead where passing TDs are worth 6 points. Standard everywhere else - not a PPR.

One pick will be a RB that I figure will be at worst Forte. My second pick is tormenting me. I could see Calvin, Bryant, or Green there. I could see Brees or Rogers there. I could also see taking somebody like Chris Johnson or MJD. Thoughts?

If Calvin Johnson is available, grab him and be stoked. Otherwise, hope one of the top tier RB's falls. I'd avoid a QB just because the position is so loaded this year. The 12th best QB is still going to give you a crapton of points this year. Via footballguys.com, the average draft sees Russell Wilson as the 12th QB, with Eli Manning, Dalton, Vick and Roethlisberger right behind him. Romo, Luck and RG3 are the three in front of him. Any of those guys is a very solid fantasy QB.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by CleBrownsfan

Here is our scoring system for rushing/receiving:

1 pnt for every 10 yards Rush/Receiving (2 pnt bonus going over 100yards)
6 pnt TD's (+2 pnt for a score over 50 yards)
.5 pnt for rec
-1 fumble


I'm drafting #2 in a 10 person league (start 2 RB/2WR and a flex). I was set drafting Foster at #2 but with injuries and seeing his yards per rushing attempt drop the past two years I'm not sold on taking him. I like CJ Spiller a lot this year - but taking him at #2 may be a reach... any advise?

I think Martin is the solid and safe choice. I actually think if healthy both Spiller and Charles will outscore him, but they present a bigger injury risk.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by rowech

Picking 12th in a 12 team lead where passing TDs are worth 6 points. Standard everywhere else - not a PPR.

One pick will be a RB that I figure will be at worst Forte. My second pick is tormenting me. I could see Calvin, Bryant, or Green there. I could see Brees or Rogers there. I could also see taking somebody like Chris Johnson or MJD. Thoughts?

Johnson would be great, I would not consider any other receivers and I would look to double up on RB's since its a standard league. Should be able to get two of
Trent Richardson
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Alfred Morris

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Danny

Johnson would be great, I would not consider any other receivers and I would look to double up on RB's since its a standard league. Should be able to get two of
Trent Richardson
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Alfred Morris

I can't imagine any of those guys being there but Forte. Guys I play with are very big on RB first round. I would be happy to get two of those guys. As it is, I think I will get one of those and have to decide between Jackson, Johnson, and MJD as the second pick and I can talk myself into or out of all three of those guys.

[Moss84]

Originally Posted by rowech

Picking 12th in a 12 team lead where passing TDs are worth 6 points. Standard everywhere else - not a PPR.

One pick will be a RB that I figure will be at worst Forte. My second pick is tormenting me. I could see Calvin, Bryant, or Green there. I could see Brees or Rogers there. I could also see taking somebody like Chris Johnson or MJD. Thoughts?

I would select TE Graham and QB Brees. You get the best TE and QB this season. Plus Payton is back to run the offense.

Why select a third tier RB just because a lot of RB's are off the board already? Your league scoring system of 6 points per pass makes QB's valuable.

There will be plenty of third tier RB's in round 3 and 4. Chris Johnson, MJD, and Ben Tate wouldn't be a bad choice either-I don't think Foster stays healthy this season.

A lot of people don't like combo's but I do, especially in a 12 yeam league. Good luck.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Moss84

I would select TE Graham and QB Brees. You get the best TE and QB this season. Plus Payton is back to run the offense.

Why select a third tier RB just because a lot of RB's are off the board already? Your league scoring system of 6 points per pass makes QB's valuable.

There will be plenty of third tier RB's in round 3 and 4. Chris Johnson, MJD, and Ben Tate wouldn't be a bad choice either-I don't think Foster stays healthy this season.

A lot of people don't like combo's but I do, especially in a 12 yeam league. Good luck.

TE only count as WR so Graham is neutralized.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by rowech

Picking 12th in a 12 team lead where passing TDs are worth 6 points. Standard everywhere else - not a PPR.

One pick will be a RB that I figure will be at worst Forte. My second pick is tormenting me. I could see Calvin, Bryant, or Green there. I could see Brees or Rogers there. I could also see taking somebody like Chris Johnson or MJD. Thoughts?

IN a non ppr league with 6 pt passing TDs, getting a top QB is paramount.

Many QBs will put up 30 tds. Likely 6-7 QBS. There were only 7 RBS with 10+ rush tds last year. Plus, RBs are much more likely to get injured and miss time.

Would doubt Brees or Rodgers is there at 12 , but every league is different.

[albionmoonlight]

My year playing with 6pt passing TDs made QBs hugely valued. You would not think that 2pts extra per TD pass would matter, but it really does.

[Vince, Pt. II]

The difference between Andy Dalton and Drew Brees last year was 16 TDs. The difference between a 4 pt per TD league and a 6 pt per TD league is 2 per touchdown. That's 32 points. Which is less than three points per week. I don't think it's really that big a difference.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

The difference between Andy Dalton and Drew Brees last year was 16 TDs. The difference between a 4 pt per TD league and a 6 pt per TD league is 2 per touchdown. That's 32 points. Which is less than three points per week. I don't think it's really that big a difference.

This has definitely been my thinking. Plus a lot of those TDs come with high INTs too.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Don't get me wrong, the elite QBs ARE worth more relative to the mediocre ones in this situation - it's just not as great a gap as you initially believe it to be. So take advantage of your league mates running to grab the best QBs early and stock up at the other positions. You'll gain more of an advantage that way.

[QuikSand]

Okay, in my two snake draft leagues, I'm picking #1 and #4. So, I am thinking in terms of pairs of players... after my first guy, who do I get at 2/3 and then at 4/5, etc.

Eddie Lacy. I think he's a wiseguy pick, looking good in preseason, but still some uncertainty on what the Packers might do. One bad preseason showing just in the books, but vibe remains good. I think he's very much on the rise. And, predictably, tons of us are thinking he'll be a huge value pickup if we decide to go non-RB with one of our early picks (and for me, if I opt to take Calvin Johnson at pick 4, or if I end up with two non-RB out of my 2/3 corner in either of these leagues).

Frex, I would LOVE LOVE LOVE my team if it started out:

Jamaal Charles
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Eddie Lacy
Daryl Richardson

...but if instead of Lacy and Richardson, I am looking at much less palatable RB options out there, then I hate this team. I don't like being thin at RB, and I don't have eight guys I like from the later-round pickins, I basically have those guys. (I'm just not interested in Ahmad Bradshaw or BJGE or most of the time-splitters or unknowns who are in this likely mix)

So. Any thoughts on Eddie Lacy, and whether I need to just suck it up and take him with an early 3rd rounder, or even the late 2nd rounder, to get the guy that I think can be a difference maker?

As much as I love that hypothetical team above, I think I would be pretty happy if it looked like this:

Jamaal Charles
Brandon Marshall (or equivalent WR#1)
Eddie Lacy
best RB available
BPA from then on (value QB somewhere)

[QuikSand]

Oh, and a "by the way" for those who follow tout picks as well as actual performance/news. Ian Allen, the guy who does the (rather good) Fantasy Index projections, has moved Chris Johnson (RB, Ten) up to #2 on his overall board. In my league, at least, it's become pretty common to see half the league show up on draft day with a web-printed cheat sheet from FFI -- so don't be shocked if you see him going well ahead of general expectations.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

12 team, .5 PPR, all TDs 6, QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 FLEX

3rd pick. Assume Peterson off the board (but no one else, since I suspect Rodgers will go). Who do you take? I'm with Martin/Charles right now but really feel its wide open.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

Oh and I love Lacy this year. Third round seems pretty early, but if you're dealing with sharps and he won't be there the next time you pick, you kind of have to take him, right?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

Oh and I love Lacy this year. Third round seems pretty early, but if you're dealing with sharps and he won't be there the next time you pick, you kind of have to take him, right?

Yeah, I LOVE him as a late 4th round pick to either be great RB3 or a strong RB2... but if I judge it unlikely he lasts that long, then I need to decide whether to go in earlier than expected.

I fully expect that a friend who is at the opposite corner (12/13, then 36/37) is targeting him in his second pair of picks -- so I think I need to move to get him, if that's what I want. So, it means giving up someone like, say, Andre Johnson to do so... and replacing him with a 4th/5th level WR alternative. Still chewing on that.

[QuikSand]

...and I also like Richardson a lot, and he's moving into that range of "everybody's fallback plan" and losing value as we speak.

[QuikSand]

Well, with the GB injury news (Harris to IR) I think Lacy as a steal is gone, and I fully expect to use my pick at 25 to roster him tomorrow night. Not great value anymore, but I think he's a better play than guys like Ridley, Bush, Wilson, Murray, and the others I expect to leave on the board.

[QuikSand]

So, my sketch of how I think I might play out the #1 slot:

AD
B Marshall
E Lacy
Romo
D Richardson
J Finley
Best WR
...

[Vince, Pt. II]

12 team league? Would you really need to pick Romo up in the 4th? I'd imagine at that point nearly everyone else has a QB and you could let him slide a little further. Though I guess at the end of the draft that's a ton more picks between your next pick. I guess the question is how much worse you feel with Dalton/Vick/Palmer/Eli as your QB than Romo.

In my keeper league, I'm trying to put a trade together with the guy who didn't keep a QB; post-draft, he's sitting on Stafford and Romo, while I have Peyton and Kaepernick. Here's what I've come up with:

I give up:
QB Peyton Manning
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
WR Eric Decker

I get:
QB Tony Romo
RB LeSean McCoy
WR Larry Fitzgerald

Thoughts on the trade?

[SegRat]

Lacey went at pick number 22 in my league.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by SegRat

Lacey went at pick number 22 in my league.

I grabbed Lacy, Round 4 Pick 8, but it's really a keeper league and the fourth round is really our 1st round.

I also had Pick 2 and grabbed Morris.

After the keepers were sorted out, it really seemed the smart option.

[SegRat]

I had pick numbers 12 and 13. I Was hoping for Morris which I ended up getting and my plan was to take Lacey at 13. But Foster dropped and I reluctantly took him.

[rowech]

So how high does David Wilson go now?

[B & B]

Lacy around 40th
Wilson as high as 20-25 now.

(Drafted two weeks ago and have A.Brown as my #3 RB)


Yeah, that sucks. He was considered one of the top RB3 cause its a 16 team league.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by B & B

Lacy around 40th
Wilson as high as 20-25 now.

(Drafted two weeks ago and have A.Brown as my #3 RB)


Yeah, that sucks. He was considered one of the top RB3 cause its a 16 team league.

I'm thinking I might take David Wilson with pick #13 ahead of Chris Johnson, MJD, and Steven Jackson. Just feel those three have questions and not sure Wilson has the same questions anymore.

[B & B]

I have him behind SJAX but ahead of MJD. CJ2k is buyer beware , depending on your risk avoidance. Guys like Wilson are huge boom/bust because of his speed+frame combo.

[TLK]

My plan for my main league that drafts tomorrow night. 14 teams and I have the 8 pick is a serpentine draft. Scoring is standard with milestone bonuses. Non-ppr. Any holes? Horrible strategy? I'll post how the draft goes tomorrow.

1. Best RB - Hoping for Richardson or McCoy
2. Best RB - Looking for David Wilson here. I would be happy with Chris Johnson or Ridley.
3. Rob Gronkowski
4. Best WR on board -Amendola, Colston, T. Smith, Welker, Wayne or Bowe are all fine with me here.
5. Best RB left- Looking to be like Chris Ivory, Deangelo Williams or Shane Vereen at this spot. Would love Bernard.
6. Best QB left- Looking for Luck or Romo. If Griffin, Wilson and Stafford are my choices.... I might wait.
7. Best WR on board - This is already Lance Moore and Golden Tate range.
8. Best WR on board - Have to get lucky here. Givens?
9. Zach Sudfeld
10. 1st Round RB Handcuff - If my guy isn't on the board... I'll take somebody else's
11. Team Defense - Defensive scoring in the league is crazy. Hoping to land a top 5 D here
12. Best WR left
13. Backup QB - Best Case: Dalton, Schuab or Big Ben
14. Flyer WR - Patton, Stills, Avant or Nate Washington
15. Best RB/WR/TE left on board
16. Kicker

[QuikSand]

Good plan, overall. TE could present a lot of value this year, with wiseguy picks like Cameron and Sudfeld going probably higher than is reasonable. But somewhere around round 9 you likely get a quality guy for a few weeks. If you don't take Gronk in round 3, then you likely see some decent value at WR there...like instead of Gronk/7thRdWR you get a pretty good quality WR1 and then you take your starting TE in round 7, and end up pleased to land someone like Olsen, Rudolph, or the like.

Skip the late round WR flier unless it's a strong play...instead go for another upside play at RB. A guy like Knile Davis or Joique Bell is worth a ton more than the caliber of WR who is still plentiful on the waiver wire, even in a 14-team league. Or, in a deep league like that, taking a late-roun flier at QB makes sense (I think EJ Manuel and Alex Smith are nice plays in those stages).

[britrock88]

PPR league. Wondering whether to keep Pierre Thomas or add Joique Bell as my last RB on the roster.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by britrock88

PPR league. Wondering whether to keep Pierre Thomas or add Joique Bell as my last RB on the roster.

LOL

those two guys are on most of my FF teams. In leagues that drafted before Dustin Keller got hurt.

Some things change, some things stay the same.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by britrock88

PPR league. Wondering whether to keep Pierre Thomas or add Joique Bell as my last RB on the roster.

I think Joique Bell has real value this year - he's looking very solid as the #2 RB there, and Reggie Bush ahead of him is an oft-injured type. Bell might even vulture goal line duties, and he's a receiving threat even if he's just a part-time guy.

It's hard to imagine NO suddenly committing to Thomas for more than a "good share" of the touches on that team, and not many catches in any event. Having a solid RB on a good offense has value, so this is a close-ish call, but especially in PPR, I think I'd keep Bell.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I think Joique Bell has real value this year - he's looking very solid as the #2 RB there, and Reggie Bush ahead of him is an oft-injured type. Bell might even vulture goal line duties, and he's a receiving threat even if he's just a part-time guy.

It's hard to imagine NO suddenly committing to Thomas for more than a "good share" of the touches on that team, and not many catches in any event. Having a solid RB on a good offense has value, so this is a close-ish call, but especially in PPR, I think I'd keep Bell.

Nothing in the Saints's preseason would lead one to think that Thomas is going to have an increased role on the team this year. Bell is definitely a higher upside pick.

There's a rumor going around the Saints message board that the Saints are looking to trade Ingram, which would increase Thomas's value. But that rumor is based on some random dude's twitter account and the hope of delusional Saints's fans that one of the other 31 teams would be foolish enough to trade anything of value for Ingram.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I think Joique Bell has real value this year - he's looking very solid as the #2 RB there, and Reggie Bush ahead of him is an oft-injured type. Bell might even vulture goal line duties, and he's a receiving threat even if he's just a part-time guy.

It's hard to imagine NO suddenly committing to Thomas for more than a "good share" of the touches on that team, and not many catches in any event. Having a solid RB on a good offense has value, so this is a close-ish call, but especially in PPR, I think I'd keep Bell.

Heh. So I made the move, and only afterward did I see that I also have Stafford, Bush, and Broyles on the roster. Sheesh.

[QuikSand]

In most leagues, there are better waiver options than Broyles, I think.

But seriously, you might need to get some help. Like life help. This seems serious.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

As much as I love that hypothetical team above, I think I would be pretty happy if it looked like this:

Jamaal Charles
Brandon Marshall (or equivalent WR#1)
Eddie Lacy
best RB available
BPA from then on (value QB somewhere)

So, pretty much.

I end up passing on Charles to take Trent Richardson
Demaryius Thomas
Eddie Lacy
Rob Gronkowski (value, I think)
Ryan Mathews
Hakeem Nicks
Russell Wilson
...and then my usual array of upside plays.

I'm good. Had I been aware Id see Chris Johnson/Lacy in rounds 2/3, id have taken Calvin with pick 1.4... but alas.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I like it. I'm not so hot on Nicks, but he's not at all terrible, and Richardson/Lacy/Mathews is a nice RB set to start from.

[QuikSand]

my biggest grumble there was I felt safe taking BPA (Nicks, to me) in late round 6, expecting to roster Kaepernick in the next round -- I was the only team left without a starting QB. I didn't plan on seeing CK get grabbed by the team at the short corner (who had already taken RG3), and I feel like I lost a bit there (I didn't have either guy rated terribly highly, but was pretty much okay with "whoever is left" as my QB1, with Vick as my backup).

I generally resist the "take six receivers becaue they're all that's left" so here I ended up happy with DThomas, Nicks, DeSean Jackson, and Justin Blackmon. Just 2 starting slots, plenty of rosterable guys went unclaimed as usual, I'm just looking for guys who might be significantly better than the waiver wire. Every one of these guy has shown me that potential, I think.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by rowech

I'm thinking I might take David Wilson with pick #13 ahead of Chris Johnson, MJD, and Steven Jackson. Just feel those three have questions and not sure Wilson has the same questions anymore.

I managed in a 10 team league to nab Wilson and Lacy, and was quite happy with the upside...I don't have faith in guys like Murray, CJ or McFadden, I'd rather have unknown upside...I grabbed Bell late because I still think he has value as well (along with Shane Vereen). I really think this year was the year of the running back, get him, hold them, and if you have a surplus trade to upgrade because I saw a few teams in my league with scary RB#2 options, let alone a RB at the flex (I think is far better than a WR)

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

my biggest grumble there was I felt safe taking BPA (Nicks, to me) in late round 6, expecting to roster Kaepernick in the next round -- I was the only team left without a starting QB. I didn't plan on seeing CK get grabbed by the team at the short corner (who had already taken RG3), and I feel like I lost a bit there (I didn't have either guy rated terribly highly, but was pretty much okay with "whoever is left" as my QB1, with Vick as my backup).

I generally resist the "take six receivers becaue they're all that's left" so here I ended up happy with DThomas, Nicks, DeSean Jackson, and Justin Blackmon. Just 2 starting slots, plenty of rosterable guys went unclaimed as usual, I'm just looking for guys who might be significantly better than the waiver wire. Every one of these guy has shown me that potential, I think.

Some owner was talking about him on google chat (we had 9 of 10 owners on it and it was a lot of fun) and I had to grab him as he was the last good QB not taken. I really wanted to grab Romo or Vick later but they got scooped up and then I thought about Big Ben but he got nabbed too. I grabbed Manual but Bradford and Cutler are out there, I just gotta hope Kaep excels.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

So are we going Lacy this week @SF? I'm a little scared off - stout defense on the road in his first game. Feel like my only sensible other option would be Ben Tate, who while behind Foster will get work against a middling defense.

[spleen1015]

If you drafted Lacy to be one of your starters, then you start him.

[SegRat]

DeSean Jackson or TY Hilton?