The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[Lathum]

I’m not sure I buy the polls that say RFK hurts Trump. His base is so solid and a lot of people who went for Biden last time may go for RFK.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is really wild how we are living in two realities.

Indeed: httpx://newrepublic.com/article/179548/poll-voters-trump-dictator-threats

Some new polling from a top Democratic pollster finds mixed news for Team Biden on this front: Large swaths of voters appear to have little awareness of some of Trump’s clearest statements of hostility to democracy and intent to impose authoritarian rule in a second term, from his vow to be “dictator for one day” to his vague threat to enact “termination” of provisions in the Constitution.

That’s maddening for obvious reasons. But it also presents the Biden campaign with an opportunity. If voters are unaware of all these statements, there’s plenty of time to make voters aware of them—and the polling also finds that these statements, when aired to respondents, shift them against Trump.

The survey—which was conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin for the group Save My Country and shared with The New Republic—did something novel. It polled 400 voters in each of three swing states—Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and weighted them in proportion with each state’s Electoral College votes. It omitted respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 and also said Biden didn’t legitimately win.

In short, the poll was designed to survey voters who are genuinely gettable for Biden. The poll asked them about 10 of Trump’s most authoritarian statements, including: the two mentioned above, Trump’s claim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” his vow to pardon rioters who attacked the Capitol, his promise to prosecute the Biden family without cause, his threat to inflict mass persecution on the “vermin” opposition, and a few more.

Result? “Only 31 percent of respondents said they previously had heard a lot about these statements by Trump,” the memo accompanying the poll concluded.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

In combination with being off Twitter, the fact that Truth Social's search function is broken (probably by design) makes it harder to make the "there's a post for that" immediate responses that juxtapose what he said weeks/months/years ago with things he's saying now.

Trump really goes against everything we know or assume about a normal candidate yet people still try to treat him like one. As I mentioned earlier here, the more Trump is out there in media, etc, the worse he does. I don't mean just articles covering him, but his tweets, clips from his rallies, statements, anything directly from him. The more exposure he gets the worse he polls.

[GrantDawg]

Kyrsten Sinema announces she won't be running for reelection, and will instead retire to her Super-yacht "Pharma-Money."

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump really goes against everything we know or assume about a normal candidate yet people still try to treat him like one. As I mentioned earlier here, the more Trump is out there in media, etc, the worse he does. I don't mean just articles covering him, but his tweets, clips from his rallies, statements, anything directly from him. The more exposure he gets the worse he polls.

This is why I’m holding out hope as we get closer to the election more people tune in and realize they don’t want another exhausting four year with him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I’m not sure I buy the polls that say RFK hurts Trump. His base is so solid and a lot of people who went for Biden last time may go for RFK.

It'll be interesting to see. I guess the theory is that Trump has his voters but RFK takes those moderate Republicans who would hold their nose and vote for Trump anyway. Plus he gets the anti-vax vote which heavily favors the right.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It'll be interesting to see. I guess the theory is that Trump has his voters but RFK takes those moderate Republicans who would hold their nose and vote for Trump anyway. Plus he gets the anti-vax vote which heavily favors the right.

Yeah, but how many people would have voted Biden over Trump now go to him is the question.

there are a large number of republicans or right leaning independents who would never vote Trump. What percentage splits to RFK instead of holding their nose for Biden

[Lathum]

This would be funny if there weren't millions just like him voting

Trump voter tells NBC that a woman won’t make a good president because she “has no balls to scratch.” pic.twitter.com/hn3xiXouGK

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 5, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Yeah, but how many people would have voted Biden over Trump now go to him is the question.

there are a large number of republicans or right leaning independents who would never vote Trump. What percentage splits to RFK instead of holding their nose for Biden

Biden and RFK are pretty similar moderates on most issues. I don't know why you'd vote RFK over Biden if that's what you're looking for instead of Trump.

I think RFK's base is anti-vax crowd and conspiracy theorists. The people who never forgave Trump for lockdowns and the vaccine. If RFK had come out with a pro-Palestinian stance, I think it would hurt Biden. But he seems lockstep with what Biden is doing there. His stance on Ukraine helps him with Republicans more than Democrats too.

My guess is we'll know more by who is attacking him. It seems like Trump's side has been more concerned of late.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Kyrsten Sinema announces she won't be running for reelection, and will instead retire to her Super-yacht "Pharma-Money."

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That's two of the Dems biggest thorns (with Mancin not running 3rd party for president.) She was really in the running for worst politician on the Dem side, so i hope she enjoys all the money she made off of it.



I also saw that just recently Kari lake had a big fundraiser for her Senate run and several current Senators were speaking. Really Republicans a multi election denier is the best candidate to support?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Really Republicans a multi election denier is the best candidate to support?

Did you really ask this question?

[Ksyrup]

Yes, I saw something a couple of weeks ago about how, like some form of toxic osmosis, GOP mainstreamers have fallen in line with backing Kari Lake.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Really Republicans a multi election denier is the best candidate to support?

I'm not sure how many (R) voters you could find that believe the election was on the up & up.

Like me, all may not agree with Trump's take on how it was bogus, but it's not a group where you'd find much confidence in the system in general I don't believe.

edit to add: this comment is to simply point out that election questioners being supported by (R) voters doesn't feel like it should come as any real surprise. I'd have far more doubt about a candidate who swears it was on the up & up at this point, and I don't think I'm any sort of Lone Ranger about that.

[Thomkal]

And speaking of horrible politicans:


Sen. Bob Menendez hit with new conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges | CNN Politics

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm not sure how many (R) voters you could find that believe the election was on the up & up.

Like me, all may not agree with Trump's take on how it was bogus, but it's not a group where you'd find much confidence in the system in general I don't believe.

edit to add: this comment is to simply point out that election questioners being supported by (R) voters doesn't feel like it should come as any real surprise. I'd have far more doubt about a candidate who swears it was on the up & up at this point, and I don't think I'm any sort of Lone Ranger about that.

Do you have any real reason to believe the 2020 election was fraudulent other than you didn't like the result?

[Ksyrup]

Or that with more and more technology and real time reporting/visibility, we see how the sausage is made, which gives rise to assumptions that things aren't on the up and up? Things like, "Biden got 250K votes dumped in the middle of the night" when that's just a function of how a precinct batched and released votes as opposed to any kind of fraud? And that's how it always worked, way before we got to see it happen in real time?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm not sure how many (R) voters you could find that believe the election was on the up & up.

Like me, all may not agree with Trump's take on how it was bogus, but it's not a group where you'd find much confidence in the system in general I don't believe.

edit to add: this comment is to simply point out that election questioners being supported by (R) voters doesn't feel like it should come as any real surprise. I'd have far more doubt about a candidate who swears it was on the up & up at this point, and I don't think I'm any sort of Lone Ranger about that.

I just can't get that the average Republican citizen thinks that the best thing to do is kick out all the Dems and start over. jan 6 happened, was investigated as much as Republicans would let it be, and to date not a single Dem has been charged with being behind any of it. not a single reporter/far right journalist has ever come out with a story that the Dems were behind it all and used whatever the Deep State is to cover it all up. Not a single election denier currently in Congress has come up with legitimate evidence that Dems were behind it just conspiracy theories about FBI/CIA involvement, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, nothing. Donald Trump could have come forward with legitimate evidence at any time if he had it and this country would be in turmoil. He doesn't have to go through the Courts-just release it and watch the country burn. Hell even a couple of the Proud boys before going to jail for years were shouting Trump won! when it just didn't happen.

[Lathum]

Kari Lake bent the knee early and often. It is as simple as that.

[RainMaker]

Lake is behind in most polls and has an uphill battle. Biden is polling well behind Gallego so I think her best bet is Biden drags Gallego down. Kind of like how Trump dragged down candidates in Georgia and other parts of the country.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Lake is behind in most polls and has an uphill battle. Biden is polling well behind Gallego so I think her best bet is Biden drags Gallego down. Kind of like how Trump dragged down candidates in Georgia and other parts of the country.

She wants to lose so she can spend a few more years grifting and visiting mar a lardo

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Do you have any real reason to believe the 2020 election was fraudulent other than you didn't like the result?

Harvesting of ballots filled out by Godonlyknowswho?

Mail-in bullshit (which should never have been allowed outside of special situations that fit under the old absentee standard)

Anybody that trusts all that bullshit is probably part of the problem, not the solution.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I just can't get that the average Republican citizen thinks that the best thing to do is kick out all the Dems and start over. jan 6 happened, was investigated as much as Republicans would let it be, and to date not a single Dem has been charged with being behind any of it.

So help me God, I swear I'm not giving you a hard time for the hell of it here.

But, umm ... are you kidding? I mean, the quoted part above is pretty detached from any reality I'm aware of.

I know more that believe NO (D) should ever be in any office of any kind that have a problem with removing some. Hell, I'm not sure how many I know that have a problem with Jan 6 (though I definitely know some that say one thing in public and something else in private)

And that's true across everything from the most over the top MAGAs to some of the weakest suburban soccer moms.

Most aren't as succinct about it, nor as open about it, as I tend to be but if you think there's more than a fraction of (R) voters who think having any (D) in office is a good idea then I'm not sure what to even suggest.

[RainMaker]

Every side cries when they lose elections. It was the evil Russians who prevented the unlikable Hillary Clinton to lose. Just like it's Dominion or one of the other conspiracy theories that cost an unlikable Trump to lose.

Honestly, elections are just coming down to who has the candidate that freaks out suburbanites the least. Republicans running on a platform of being obsessed with children's genitalia didn't play as well with those voters as they thought. Democrats running a guy who would be in a home if they were a family member may not be a good plan either.

But whoever wins, the other side will cry about it being rigged or whatever. Anything but an ounce of self-reflection.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And just ftr, for those who may have missed it along the way, I have consistently said that Trump has barked up the entirely wrong tree with where the election took a detour into Crookville.

I trust Dominion (euphemistically representing the various types of electronic machines, etc) far more than I trust individuals counting votes by hand. To the extent that if Georgia went to paper ballots -- a huge talking point for the hardcore MAGA backers here -- I wouldn't even bother to go vote anymore.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So help me God, I swear I'm not giving you a hard time for the hell of it here.

But, umm ... are you kidding? I mean, the quoted part above is pretty detached from any reality I'm aware of.

I know more that believe NO (D) should ever be in any office of any kind that have a problem with removing some. Hell, I'm not sure how many I know that have a problem with Jan 6 (though I definitely know some that say one thing in public and something else in private)

And that's true across everything from the most over the top MAGAs to some of the weakest suburban soccer moms.

Most aren't as succinct about it, nor as open about it, as I tend to be but if you think there's more than a fraction of (R) voters who think having any (D) in office is a good idea then I'm not sure what to even suggest.

Hence most of them voting for a guy who wants to be an authoritarian ruler and democracy be damned. True patriots.

[Lathum]

apparently the North Carolina GOP is about to nominate a guy for governor who called the holocaust hogwash. Unreal.

[RainMaker]

I think many Dems should be sitting out the holocaust denial stuff when they're doing the same with Gaza right now.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Harvesting of ballots filled out by Godonlyknowswho?

Mail-in bullshit (which should never have been allowed outside of special situations that fit under the old absentee standard)

Anybody that trusts all that bullshit is probably part of the problem, not the solution.

You realize mail-in ballots have been used for years in a number of states without an issue, right?

See, this is where the statements, "mail-in ballots are a problem" and "mail-in ballots help the other party more than mine" intersect. Pardon me if I'm not just the tiniest bit skeptical of the real reason you are opposed to them.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Harvesting of ballots filled out by Godonlyknowswho?

Mail-in bullshit (which should never have been allowed outside of special situations that fit under the old absentee standard)

Anybody that trusts all that bullshit is probably part of the problem, not the solution.

...such as the entire states of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon, California , Vermont and Washington and the District of Columbia.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Pardon me if I'm not just the tiniest bit skeptical of the real reason you are opposed to them.

I can only say that you'd have to trust me that I have opposed them from the first time I heard of them, which was long before

I'm alright with limited use of it (what I think of as "the old absentee rules" which included providing proof of the reason you couldn't vote in person, that was basically how Georgia did it I can't say how other places did it so ymmv) but that's about it.

If you don't care enough to show the fuck up then I struggle to believe you care enough to put in the effort a vote should have behind it. Plain & simple as that.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

...such as the entire states of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon, California , Vermont and Washington and the District of Columbia.

Damn, that's an awful lot of places that I'd really rather didn't get involved in national elections at all.

Most have already proven that they're incapable of competent self-governance at the state level as it is.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Poltical chuckle I saw a little while ago.

Apparently that guy who keeps losing to Uncommitted, Phillips (?) has tonight congratulated "Joe Biden, Uncommitted, Marianne Williamson and Nikki Haley for all having more appeal to Dem party loyalists than I do"

I mean, might as well find the humor in the situation I reckon.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If you don't care enough to show the fuck up

Assuming you have the means of transportation, a job/schedule that will allow it, and a reasonably available polling location.

Why Do Nonwhite Georgia Voters Have To Wait In Line For Hours? : NPR

Everyone has a spare five hours, right?

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, and interesting that here in KY, the GOP legislature is trying to cut the few early in-person voting days, too. Because, I guess, people who care enough to show up to vote really don't actually care unless they prove it by showing up on one and only one day, during a work week.

It's important enough that people should show up, but not important enough to make a state or national holiday that would make it easier for people to vote. I mean, first it was, you should care enough to show up in person to vote; then it when people showed up early, it's now... well, if you REALLLY cared about voting, you'd show up on election day!

Funny how that works...

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yeah, and interesting that here in KY, the GOP legislature is trying to cut the few early in-person voting days, too. Because, I guess, people who care enough to show up to vote really don't actually care unless they prove it by showing up on one and only one day, during a work week.

It's important enough that people should show up, but not important enough to make a state or national holiday that would make it easier for people to vote. I mean, first it was, you should care enough to show up in person to vote; then it when people showed up early, it's now... well, if you REALLLY cared about voting, you'd show up on election day!

Funny how that works...

IT SHOULDN'T BE CONVENIENT! IT SHOULD BE PAINFUL!!!

(at the same time omg uber is down how am i going to eat?!?)

[RainMaker]

Biden with 68% in Minnesota, a crucial swing state. Obama got 96% in 2012.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Assuming you have the means of transportation, a job/schedule that will allow it, and a reasonably available polling location.

Why Do Nonwhite Georgia Voters Have To Wait In Line For Hours? : NPR

Everyone has a spare five hours, right?

There is NO place in Georgia that doesn't have a reasonably available polling location. Period. Reasonbly available is different than "make it so easy you have to make an effort to avoid it" which is why some will still cry that phony bullshit.

And it's literally illegal in Georgia to deny anyone time off from their job to vote if they're work hours do not allow for them to vote before or after (a two hour window before or after work is the requirement, otherwise they literally HAVE to let you off). And that law was expanded as recently as last year.

So two of the three hystertics from the lefty propaganda arm you listed are utter bullshit.

And God only knows there's not a shortage of rides available for those who claim to be unable to get to the polls, (wouldn't be hard to find some that'd pay you for the privilege honestly).

[RainMaker]

Voting by mail is still easier. There's no evidence that it results in fraud. So I'll just keep doing it that way.

Just because it hurts the feelings of people who have meltdowns over beer cans and syrup bottles because their candidate lost isn't a good enough excuse to end it.

Heck, most of the new data is showing that higher turnout benefits Republicans now and if they ever got on board with early voting and mail-in ballots, they'd probably control every branch of government.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

IT SHOULDN'T BE CONVENIENT! IT SHOULD BE PAINFUL!!!

(at the same time omg uber is down how am i going to eat?!?)

This was good!

[NobodyHere]

Nikki Haley to exit Republican presidential race Wednesday | CNN Politics

Like Thanos this was inevitable.

[JPhillips]

Given the left's insistence that Biden can't get their votes, I expect Biden's team is reaching out to Cheney and Haley to get their quiet support or open endorsement.

[Lathum]

No chance Haley endorses him. She has aspirations to run in 2028. I suspect she will be kissing the ring by spring break. They all do.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

No chance Haley endorses him. She has aspirations to run in 2028. I suspect she will be kissing the ring by spring break. They all do.

Yeah, if Haley endorses Biden then any chance of her running as a Republican again for any office will be gone.

[JPhillips]

She's done already, she just doesn't realize it yet. If Trump wins there's no path for her and if Trump loses she'll get the blame.

Everything Trump Touches Dies.

[GrantDawg]

Thought experiment: Is there someone that you can think of that could have the strength to pull off a third party or independent candidacy and win this Presidential election? If there has ever been a year that it could happen, it would be this one. I just have a hard time imagining who, and what their platform would be beyond "I am not them."

[Flasch186]

Joe manchin


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[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Thought experiment: Is there someone that you can think of that could have the strength to pull off a third party or independent candidacy and win this Presidential election? If there has ever been a year that it could happen, it would be this one. I just have a hard time imagining who, and what their platform would be beyond "I am not them."

Probably not, no.

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Joe manchin

Fuck no.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Joe manchin


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LOLOLOLOOOLLOOL....


No, seriously.


I would think it would have to be someone with a big name, universally liked and deep pockets. I the person is hard to some up with, but I think the platform is even harder.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't see it.

There aren't enough "double haters" out there to win a majority of EVs.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Thought experiment: Is there someone that you can think of that could have the strength to pull off a third party or independent candidacy and win this Presidential election? If there has ever been a year that it could happen, it would be this one. I just have a hard time imagining who, and what their platform would be beyond "I am not them."

Taylor Swift