So... The Big 12

[Easy Mac]

Who gets the presumptive BCS bid right now?

Oklahoma - drilled Texas Tech by 40-50 (game not finished) at home.
Texas - Beat Oklahoma by 10 at a netral site.
Texas Tech - Beat Texas by scoring a literal last second win.

Assuming everything else holds, who gets to play for the national title?

[RainMaker]

I think Oklahoma is the best team at the moment. I think Texas will get it though. I hope Missouri does just to fuck everything up.

[Jas_lov]

Oklahoma is now in the driver's seat. They are 2 wins away from the national title game, but I think they'll get tripped up and Texas will get it. Texas Tech is now out of the running.

Texas or Oklahoma, Alabama or Florida. Should be an interesting finish.

[Noop]

If Florida loses to Florida State and beats Alabama
If Texas and Oklahoma wins out

Does that mean we see a rematch for the national title?

[rowech]

My hope is that it's Texas. Texas lost by one point, on the road, literally right at the end of a four game stretch where they played four top 10 opponents. They beat Oklahoma head-to-head which is who everyone is going to say to put in ahead of them. Not going to be many Tech supporters until...

Texas wins next week and Oklahoma loses. Someone will have to correct me if I'm wrong but that would put Texas and Tech tied for the lead and Tech would go to the championship game because of beating Texas. Would then leave Texas, a higher ranked team, in line for a title shot despite not getting to play for their conference title. Then if TT wins the B12 championship voters will have to put them back up ahead of Texas.

[Racer]

Texas deserves it since they beat Oklahoma on a neutral site but I think Oklahoma will get it.

[sooner333]

Oklahoma lost their MLB, a key player in the defense in the loss against Texas and went from being up all game to losing in the fourth quarter. The replacement in that game was replaced twice and now there's a guy there who is learning his position and played a hell of a game against Texas Tech.

I know who the best team is in the country and I saw them last night.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by rowech

My hope is that it's Texas. Texas lost by one point, on the road, literally right at the end of a four game stretch where they played four top 10 opponents. They beat Oklahoma head-to-head which is who everyone is going to say to put in ahead of them.

Actually, they lost by 6 points, I believe, in a game they never led until the final two minutes. And if Texas should be ahead of Oklahoma by virtue of head-to-head, Tech should be ahead of Texas.

There's just no right answer on this one, and therefore, no wrong answer. If I was a poll voter, I would take the entire season into account. Right now, that probably gives the slight edge to Texas because of the tough stretch you mentioned and a big win over Missouri. If OU beats OSU, though, I'd give the edge to the Sooners. Oklahoma would have wins over much better non-conference opponents in TCU and Cincinnati.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by sooner333

Oklahoma lost their MLB, a key player in the defense in the loss against Texas and went from being up all game to losing in the fourth quarter. The replacement in that game was replaced twice and now there's a guy there who is learning his position and played a hell of a game against Texas Tech.

I know who the best team is in the country and I saw them last night.

Are we voting for the best team or the best season? Two different things.

[Noop]

Oklahoma is not the best team in the country, that would be Florida. I think Texas should be ranked ahead of Oklahoma unless OU wins the Big 12 title (is that even possible if Texas is ranked ahead of them?) even though Texas lost to Tech they were playing them during a tough stretch. Coupled with the fact if that kid catches that int instead of dropping it, this convo is moot. (yes I am aware it is apart of the game.)

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Are we voting for the best team or the best season? Two different things.

There is no criteria. I think OU wins either one though.

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by Noop

Oklahoma is not the best team in the country, that would be Florida. I think Texas should be ranked ahead of Oklahoma unless OU wins the Big 12 title (is that even possible if Texas is ranked ahead of them?) even though Texas lost to Tech they were playing them during a tough stretch. Coupled with the fact if that kid catches that int instead of dropping it, this convo is moot. (yes I am aware it is apart of the game.)

I would give you Florida easily, but they're also a one-loss team. Either way, those are the best two teams (Oklahoma and Florida). Should we give all teams a break for playing in a tough stretch? Was Florida in a "tough stretch" when they lost to Ole Miss. Playing in tough stretches is "apart" of the game as well.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by sooner333

I would give you Florida easily, but they're also a one-loss team. Either way, those are the best two teams (Oklahoma and Florida). Should we give all teams a break for playing in a tough stretch? Was Florida in a "tough stretch" when they lost to Ole Miss. Playing in tough stretches is "apart" of the game as well.

There is a difference between a "tough stretch" and playing in four consecutive weeks teams ranked #11 or higher. The last time a team had a four game stretch like that was Auburn in 1984. Definitely not a regular part of the game.

Texas has as much claim to being called the best one loss team as any of the other teams.

[tarcone]

Oklahoma put 65 on the #2 team in the nation. Has that ever happened?

I would love to see an Oklahoma/Florida national title game.

I think Florida rapes Texas.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by sooner333

There is no criteria. I think OU wins either one though.

Alabama clearly is having the best season (I would argue they aren't the "best" team, but that's not what the BCS is about) and holds claim to the No. 1 spot easily at this point. It's who is worthy of that second spot that it gets tough. Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and Penn State are very, very good 1-loss teams all with claims for that spot.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by cartman

Texas has as much claim to being called the best one loss team as any of the other teams.

Cartman, I totally agree with you, but it seems like a lot of the Texas fans are putting the blinders on and hanging their hat on the Oct. 11 game against OU, as if nothing else matters. However, if they win out, this will be a 3-way tie for first place, and you cannot use head-to-head vs. one team.

Texas beat OU by 10 points on Oct. 11, Texas Tech beat Texas by 6 points on Nov. 1, and OU beat Texas Tech by 44 points on Nov. 22. While the circular logic might not be enough on its own, which of those three wins is the most impressive?

[Noop]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I think Florida rapes every team in DI.

Corrected. This Florida team after that lost to Ole Miss is on another level.

[Cringer]

I agree, once these teams get to the playoffs it will be gr.....nevermind, I forgot, no playoff.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Cartman, I totally agree with you, but it seems like a lot of the Texas fans are putting the blinders on and hanging their hat on the Oct. 11 game against OU, as if nothing else matters. However, if they win out, this will be a 3-way tie for first place, and you cannot use head-to-head vs. one team.

Texas beat OU by 10 points on Oct. 11, Texas Tech beat Texas by 6 points on Nov. 1, and OU beat Texas Tech by 44 points on Nov. 22. While the circular logic might not be enough on its own, which of those three wins is the most impressive?

Agreed, but that is not the basis of my argument. It is a big factor though, and one OU has to downplay as much as possible to help their chances in the human polls. The computers still have Texas ahead of OU, and if both teams win next weekend, will stay the same. OU will need to have a significant difference in the votes received in the polls to make up the ground they lose due to the computers.

The only human poll out so far is the AP, but it doesn't count towards the BCS. All of the polls have been pretty similar throughout the year, and the AP has it has basically a tie between Texas and OU, with 4 points separating them.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by sooner333

I know who the best team is in the country and I saw them last night.

From someone who lives in OK.

Originally Posted by Noop

Oklahoma is not the best team in the country, that would be Florida.

From someone who lives in FL.

As someone who lives in neither state, who has the better loss and who has the more impressive win? In both cases, the Sooners do. Can Florida beat the Sooners? Yes they can. If both teams go undefeated through their conference title games, they'll get the chance to really say who is number 1 between them.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by cartman

The only human poll out so far is the AP, but it doesn't count towards the BCS. All of the polls have been pretty similar throughout the year, and the AP has it has basically a tie between Texas and OU, with 4 points separating them.

The new coaches' poll is out:

1 Alabama (56) 11-0 1,518 1
2 Oklahoma (4) 10-1 1,412 5
3 Florida (1) 10-1 1,401 3
4 Texas 10-1 1,370 4
5 USC 9-1 1,288 6
6 Penn State 11-1 1,157 8
7 Utah 12-0 1,153 7
8 Texas Tech 10-1 1,073 2
9 Boise State 11-0 1,033 9
10 Ohio State 10-2 994 10
11 Missouri 9-2 896 11
12 Oklahoma State 9-2 858 12
13 Georgia 9-2 842 13
14 TCU 10-2 695 17
15 Ball State 11-0 673 16
16 Cincinnati 9-2 572 20
17 Oregon State 8-3 544 21
18 Oregon 8-3 397 22
19 Brigham Young 10-2 321 14
20 Northwestern 9-3 310 24
21 Michigan State 9-3 296 15
22 Boston College 8-3 290 25
23 Georgia Tech 8-3 241 NR
24 Florida State 8-3 204 NR
25 West Virginia 7-3 83 NR

[cartman]

So a 42 vote difference between 2nd and 4th spots in that poll works out to a 2/3rds of a spot separation. (61 total votes)

Remember, the BCS uses a percentage of the total votes cast, not the absolute position in the human polls.

[cartman]

Dola, this is probably more appropriate for the BCS Armageddon thread, but what happens if Texas and Oklahoma end up with the exact same BCS score?

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The new coaches' poll is out:

1 Alabama (56) 11-0 1,518 1
2 Oklahoma (4) 10-1 1,412 5
3 Florida (1) 10-1 1,401 3
4 Texas 10-1 1,370 4
5 USC 9-1 1,288 6
6 Penn State 11-1 1,157 8
7 Utah 12-0 1,153 7
8 Texas Tech 10-1 1,073 2
9 Boise State 11-0 1,033 9
10 Ohio State 10-2 994 10
11 Missouri 9-2 896 11
12 Oklahoma State 9-2 858 12
13 Georgia 9-2 842 13
14 TCU 10-2 695 17
15 Ball State 11-0 673 16
16 Cincinnati 9-2 572 20
17 Oregon State 8-3 544 21
18 Oregon 8-3 397 22
19 Brigham Young 10-2 321 14
20 Northwestern 9-3 310 24
21 Michigan State 9-3 296 15
22 Boston College 8-3 290 25
23 Georgia Tech 8-3 241 NR
24 Florida State 8-3 204 NR
25 West Virginia 7-3 83 NR

Wow, so there still is a remote chance that Penn State makes the national title game.

I'd guess it would take:

Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma
Florida St. over Florida
Florida over Alabama
Missouri over Texas

Stranger things have happened.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Wow, so there still is a remote chance that Penn State makes the national title game.

I'd guess it would take:

Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma
Florida St. over Florida
Florida over Alabama
Missouri over Texas

Stranger things have happened.

The scenario you put can't happen, unless Texas Tech also loses to Baylor. If Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both win, then Texas Tech plays Mizzou for the Big 12 title.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by cartman

The scenario you put can't happen, unless Texas Tech also loses to Baylor. If Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both win, then Texas Tech plays Mizzou for the Big 12 title.

You probably would know better than I, but I thought that since Tech and Texas would win out before the Big 12 title game and Texas would have the higher BCS ranking, that Texas would go to the Big 12 Title Game.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

You probably would know better than I, but I thought that since Tech and Texas would win out before the Big 12 title game and Texas would have the higher BCS ranking, that Texas would go to the Big 12 Title Game.

The higher BCS ranking only applies when there are three or more teams tied. So if OU loses next week, while Texas and Texas Tech win, Tech goes based on head-to-head.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by cartman

The higher BCS ranking only applies when there are three or more teams tied. So if OU loses next week, while Texas and Texas Tech win, Tech goes based on head-to-head.

So, probably need:

Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma
Florida St. over Florida
Florida over Alabama
Missouri over Texas Tech

and either:

Texas A&M over Texas or
Notre Dame/UCLA over USC

As I said, remote chance, but if LSU could get in after being ranked BCS #7 at this point last year, then there still is a chance.

The Big 10 not having a conference title game is a huge advantage, IMO.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by Matthean

From someone who lives in FL.

As someone who lives in neither state, who has the better loss and who has the more impressive win? In both cases, the Sooners do. Can Florida beat the Sooners? Yes they can. If both teams go undefeated through their conference title games, they'll get the chance to really say who is number 1 between them.

I absolutely hate the Florida Gators, as a Florida State fan me even acknowledging they are good is a sacrilege. However anyone who has been keeping up with college football can see that this Florida team is on another level and would likely beat every team by at least 14 (only a few would keep it interesting) the rest would get blown out the water. I have nothing against Oklahoma but right now I would place them #3 behind Texas slightly and both behind Florida.

That being said if Florida loses there will be no one happier then me and the folks in Tallahassee.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Notre Dame/UCLA over USC

Even if we could combine the two teams, I don't think the the Irish Bruins could beat USC.

[MizzouRah]

I say Oklahoma.. only because of last nights game.

[tarcone]

During the Penn St/Mich St game they had a fantasy BCS. They listed 7 games and the outcomes for Penn St to make it to the BCS game.
Most are listed. One was Texas A&M over Texas.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Even if we could combine the two teams, I don't think the the Irish Bruins could beat USC.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by cartman

Dola, this is probably more appropriate for the BCS Armageddon thread, but what happens if Texas and Oklahoma end up with the exact same BCS score?

You want heads or tails? Step 6 wouldn't break the tie sending it to step 7.

Divisional Tiebreakers: The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
   1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
   2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
   3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of fi nish (4, 5 and 6)
   4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
   5. The highest ranked team in the fi rst Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
   6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
   7. The representative will be chosen by draw.

[kcchief19]

Missouri can beat Tech but I don't like our chances against OU or Texas. Maybe they could man up in front of a semi-home field at Arrowhead -- they'll be playing there two weeks in a row. Kansas State 2003 is our inspiration.

I still don't see the logic in ignoring a head-to-head result because it happened six weeks ago in favor of a blow out that happened to be more recent.

I blame the Big 12 for going this route ... I'd rather see score differential determine the tie breaker than the BCS.

Remember this: Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches' poll and the final coaches' poll is secret ballot -- what's Mack Brown's motivation for even voting OU at all? It's in his best interest to leave them off his ballot.

[Radii]

Divisional Tiebreakers: The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
...
5. The highest ranked team in the fi rst Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.

Is it possible that step 5 would narrow it down to texas/OU if they had the same BCS score, narrowing it to two teams and allowing head to head to be used?

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I still don't see the logic in ignoring a head-to-head result...

So Texas can't possibly be rated ahead of Texas Tech... Got it.

A 3-way tie forces you to overlook head-to-head.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Noop

However anyone who has been keeping up with college football can see that this Florida team is on another level and would likely beat every team by at least 14 (only a few would keep it interesting) the rest would get blown out the water.

So wait, the Sooners just posted a 65-21 score against the #2 team in the country during the November part of the schedule and you are saying they likely wouldn't even be within 14 of Florida?

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by Radii

Is it possible that step 5 would narrow it down to texas/OU if they had the same BCS score, narrowing it to two teams and allowing head to head to be used?

That's what it looks like to me.

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Remember this: Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches' poll and the final coaches' poll is secret ballot -- what's Mack Brown's motivation for even voting OU at all? It's in his best interest to leave them off his ballot.

They might kick him out for it. I do remember Rick Majerus (I think) was booted from voting after turning in some ridiculous polls. Remember, it's not secret, just not released to the public.

[Cuckoo]

Harris poll is out...

1 Alabama (108) 11-0 2,839
2 Florida (3) 10-1 2,644
3 Oklahoma (2) 10-1 2,598
4 Texas 10-1 2,577
5 USC 9-1 2,387
6 Penn State 11-1 2,187
7 Texas Tech 10-1 2,118
8 Utah (1) 12-0 2,113
9 Boise State 11-0 1,901
10 Ohio State 10-2 1,827
11 Missouri 9-2 1,622
12 Oklahoma State 9-2 1,621
13 Georgia 9-2 1,607
14 Ball State 11-0 1,346
15 TCU 10-2 1,268
16 Cincinnati 9-2 1,101
17 Oregon State 8-3 976
18 BYU 10-2 761
19 Oregon 8-3 584
20 Boston College 8-3 537
21 Michigan State 9-3 517
22 Georgia Tech 8-3 415
23 Florida State 8-3 401
24 Northwestern 9-3 330
25 Pittsburgh 7-3 130

[cartman]

So a 21 point difference between Texas and Oklahoma, which works out to about 1/6th of a position due to their being 114 voters in the Harris poll.

My guess is that the BCS when it comes out today will be #1 Bama, #2 Texas, #3 OU, #4 Florida, with a few hundredths of a point separating Texas and OU.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by cartman

My guess is that the BCS when it comes out today will be #1 Bama, #2 Texas, #3 OU, #4 Florida, with a few hundredths of a point separating Texas and OU.

Cartman, what's your assessment of where we'll stand next week if Texas beats aTm and OU beats OSU?

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by cartman

My guess is that the BCS when it comes out today will be #1 Bama, #2 Texas, #3 OU, #4 Florida, with a few hundredths of a point separating Texas and OU.

Agreed. And I would think that would bode well for OU if they can win on the road at OSU. Of course, that's the thing few people are talking about. OU, by far, has the toughest game left, and it's never (well, rarely) easy in Stillwater. The Cowboys have a good team this year that took Texas to the wire in Austin.

Watch one of the teams lose next week and it all not really matter anyway.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Cartman, what's your assessment of where we'll stand next week if Texas beats aTm and OU beats OSU?

I think it is going to come down to how the games turn out. Texas will be a solid #2 in the computers, and won't drop with any kind of win, close or blowout. So it will fall to the voters. If Texas blows out A&M, then I think Texas will stay #2, and it won't matter what OU does against the Cowboys. If the score is close, less than 10, then that will give OU an opportunity to sway some voters against OSU. The closer OU gets to being a full rank ahead of Texas in the USA Today and Harris polls, the better their chances of finishing higher are.

[Cuckoo]

I thought I heard one of the ESPN BCS guys say that OU would be a solid #2 in the computers if they win at OSU. This whole thing is confusing.

[cartman]

I do think that if Florida State beats Florida, that will move the computers enough to put OU ahead of Texas.

[cartman]

Dola,

If it is an OU-Mizzou Big 12 title game, it will be between two teams that Texas beat by at least two scores this season.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by cartman

I do think that if Florida State beats Florida, that will move the computers enough to put OU ahead of Texas.

Well as a Florida State I can tell you now that is not going to happen, although if it those happen I will be one happy som-bitch.

[sooner333]

OU moves up to #2 in the Sagarin next week with a win over OSU, but probably can't catch Texas. Texas Tech and Alabama are above OU this week but the margin is razor-thin. OSU is better than Baylor and Auburn.