Kevin Durant critique

[dawgfan]

Interesting take on projecting Kevin Durant in the NBA:

hxxp://morekrolik.blogspot.com/2007/09/not-so-fast-kevin-durant-lovers.html

Discuss?

[TroyF]

This is a rush to judgement.

I remember when Carmelo came out. The knock on him was that he was "soft" and that he didn't get inside. He quickly proved to be a much, much better post player than projected. (in fact, the post up game is where Melo really shines)

Durant has a ton of skills. He's taller and longer than the 2/3 who will be guarding him. He's got a pretty jump shot that will go down. The idea you can't be a good mid range shooter in this league is ridiculous. Is it the best shot all the time? No. But guys like Chris Bosh make a living from 12-14 feet out.

Durant is going to be an all star. I think he does need to bulk up, but it doesn't take away his overall offensive game. He'll be a 24 to 27 point a game guy within three years.

[miami_fan]

Have they moved Durant to SG? I don't see him playing effectively there.

I think he needs to add some strength. Not necessarily on the bench press, but strength against those who will back him into the post. He also is going to have to develop more on the defensive end but you can say the same thing for 90% of the rookies in the league. I think he is quick enough to get to the lane against small forwards in the league and/or shoot over them. I don't think he will argue too much if you told him that he would have a career like Dirk has had so far.

[Big Fo]

It's a gorgeous, gorgeous, gorgeous move, but it has disturbing implications; he invented that move because he was getting beaten to the spot on his drives by white guys from Gonzaga, who may or may not have thought that he was a dragon.

With his height I think he's still quick enough to be a big-time scorer since he shoots so well.

[dawgfan]

I think what this guy is saying is that all the top level scorers are able to get to the line a fair amount because they can drive to the hoop. He's not convinced, based on Durant's poor athletic testing pre-draft and his showing in the rookie league that he can get around guys consistently to get to the hoop at the NBA level.

I have no doubts Durant can shoot, but there is some question whether he's a multi-dimensional scorer or whether he's going to be reduced to mixing spot-up shooting with some post-up play to get his points. Is he a nice 18-20 ppg guy or a dominant 28-30 ppg monster? There's also the concern about whether he has the quickness to play defense at the 2 or 3 or the strength to play defense at the 4.

I haven't seen him play much, so I have no real contribution from first-hand experience, but this guy does bring up some interesting points.

Obviously we'll know a lot more in about 9 months.

[stevew]

I really like the Krolik kid's blog, I've read his cavs articles from time to time, I post on another board he's a member of. Kid's pretty young, so he sometimes lacks a bit of perspective imo. But he puts a lot of work into his blogs usually.

[GoDukes]

Durant always seemed athletic to me.

[MikeVic]

I didn't want to read through the article and thread... but Durant is the one that never really works out or anything, right? I saw some athletic therapy magazine that had him on the cover and I laughed.

[Neon_Chaos]

Of course, the author's assumption is that Duran't won't get any better driving to the hoop. His shooting stroke is his best asset. With top-level NBA trainers and coaches, Durant will probably be able to develop a good inside-outside game.

I always thought that it's better for a big man to have a reliable perimeter game, and then he can work on his basket-attacking game as he develops, rather than the other way around. Of course, that's just me. (An argument would be Amare, a true PF who started with a solid inside game, and developed a reliable jump-shot).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Of course, the author's assumption is that Duran't won't get any better driving to the hoop. His shooting stroke is his best asset. With top-level NBA trainers and coaches, Durant will probably be able to develop a good inside-outside game.

I always thought that it's better for a big man to have a reliable perimeter game, and then he can work on his basket-attacking game as he develops, rather than the other way around. Of course, that's just me. (An argument would be Amare, a true PF who started with a solid inside game, and developed a reliable jump-shot).

This would be the case if Durant's biggest flaw wasn't a lack of athletic ability. Durant's flaws are things that just can't be coached.

Unless Durant was simply out of shape at the combine, and judging from videos of him being cut off before getting to the rim in college I'm going to say no, he will struggle to be a reliable offensive weapon in the NBA.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I think what this guy is saying is that all the top level scorers are able to get to the line a fair amount because they can drive to the hoop. He's not convinced, based on Durant's poor athletic testing pre-draft and his showing in the rookie league that he can get around guys consistently to get to the hoop at the NBA level.

I have no doubts Durant can shoot, but there is some question whether he's a multi-dimensional scorer or whether he's going to be reduced to mixing spot-up shooting with some post-up play to get his points. Is he a nice 18-20 ppg guy or a dominant 28-30 ppg monster? There's also the concern about whether he has the quickness to play defense at the 2 or 3 or the strength to play defense at the 4.

I haven't seen him play much, so I have no real contribution from first-hand experience, but this guy does bring up some interesting points.

Obviously we'll know a lot more in about 9 months.

We'll know a lot more, but not the total story.

Anyone remember the Jazz PG Williams? There were a lot of teams who had major questions on him because of his athleticism. He couldn't get to the line enough. He couldn't get around quicker PG's or guard them. His first year he pretty much showed those two arguements were accurate. Then he blew conventional wisdom out of the water the following year.

I think the people who continue to bash Durant now are smoking something to be honest. He's more than athletic enough to get to the rim. He's also going to be able to get his shot off against anyone because of hisThat shot alone is going to open up the ability for him to drive to the rack. (especially from a mid range position where help won't get there fast enough)

He looked pretty good at USA basketball camp. I think he's going to be a pretty bigtime player. I could be wrong. We'll see, but it may take more than 9 months. It may take 3 or 4 years for him to get 100% acclimated to the pro game. Carmelo had two seasons of around 20 points per game with poor shooting percentages. He didn't really break out until year #3 for both scoring and shooting %. I won't be shocked if Durant does the same thing. (Durant has the better pure stroke, but I'm not sure on his post up game yet. If his post up game is better than people think like Melo's was, he'll become an elite scorer even faster than Anthony because of that shot)

[stevew]

I can't wait till the first time LeBron puts him on a poster.

[dawgfan]

I certainly hope this guy is wrong and that Durant will become the elite player his draft status and hype suggest.

I remain concerned about the non-scoring parts of his game though.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Have they moved Durant to SG? I don't see him playing effectively there.

And this is why P.J. is coaching the Sonics and I am not.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3047285

Also another reminder of how young Durant is (or how old I am! )

From the article
It's not going to be the warp-speed offense that Westhead, who last month won the WNBA championship with Phoenix, famously ran at Loyola Marymount in the early 1990s. Not that Durant would know.

He'd never heard of Westhead's style until last week. Durant looked puzzled at the mention of Hank Gathers' death on the court and LMU's magical run deep into the 1990 NCAA tournament that followed it.

No wonder. Durant was 18 months old when that happened.

I'll never forget Bo Kimble shooting the first free throw in those tourney game.

[TroyF]

1) I think the SG is a stretch, but it shows that the Sonics obviously think his athleticism is ok. To even think of putting him at SG indicates they think he's got plenty of it.

2) I'll also never forget Bo Kimble shooting those FT. What an emotional run they had that year. (didn't they knock off Michigan?)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by TroyF

1) I think the SG is a stretch, but it shows that the Sonics obviously think his athleticism is ok. To even think of putting him at SG indicates they think he's got plenty of it.

2) I'll also never forget Bo Kimble shooting those FT. What an emotional run they had that year. (didn't they knock off Michigan?)

Yes they did. 149-115 in the second round

[Galaxy]

What's the warp-speed offense?

[dawgfan]

So, 13 games in and Durant has a lot of work to do. So far, he's basically been the 2007 version of Adam Morrison on the offensive end. Take lots of shots, don't make nearly enough of them (37.2%). On the plus side, his rebounding has been OK - certainly better than Morrison in that regard.

Hopefully he'll continue to develop and improve, but at the moment Durant appears to be struggling to match the hype. Jeff Green has actually been the better of the 2 high draft pick rookies for the Sonics so far.

[Huckleberry]

Interesting timing. You post that in the middle of his best game so far.

You're right that he's struggling so far. Plenty of time to improve. Not only is he two years out of high school, but he was young for his grade. He just turned 19, right?

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

Interesting timing. You post that in the middle of his best game so far.

You're right that he's struggling so far. Plenty of time to improve. Not only is he two years out of high school, but he was young for his grade. He just turned 19, right?

Yep. I'm hoping he'll continue to improve, and he may very well live up to the lofty hype surrounding him. But it might've been premature to declare him Rookie of the Year before the season even started.

[Huckleberry]

Definitely agreed there.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

So, 13 games in and Durant has a lot of work to do. So far, he's basically been the 2007 version of Adam Morrison on the offensive end. Take lots of shots, don't make nearly enough of them (37.2%). On the plus side, his rebounding has been OK - certainly better than Morrison in that regard.

Hopefully he'll continue to develop and improve, but at the moment Durant appears to be struggling to match the hype. Jeff Green has actually been the better of the 2 high draft pick rookies for the Sonics so far.

The thing that concerns me the most is the knocks on his athleticism look accurate so far. He struggles to get to the rim, he can't get by any SGs and ends up settling for a lot of pull up jumpers, and his rebounding (as a lot of us predicted) has not translated at all. He looks overmatched in just about every game (Richard Jefferson made him look like a grade schooler).

Right now it looks like his success is going to be more as a Reggie Miller type than the all-around beast some people were imagining. He can jump out of the gym, but he lacks quickness and explosiveness.

[Logan]

I'll tell you what...he's unreal in NBA 2k8.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'll tell you what...he's unreal in NBA 2k8.

thats all that matters! lol I really need to pick up a 360 and that game.

[Groundhog]

I've only seen two Sonics games this year, and in one Durant scored in the high 20s against (I think) the Kings, the other game he shot something like 3-for-a million in a loss to the Grizzlies.

My biggest problem with him in both games is that he was really just looking for his own shot, but I'd say that's more of a problem with both the lack of other scorers on his roster, and the lack of anything resembling a competent offensive gameplan. He's not "slow" by any stretch of the imagination, but he just can't outrun SGs or quick SFs, and if he's shot isn't dropping he's one of those guys that lets it affect the rest of his game as well.

He's young and I have little doubt that he'll wind up a consistent 20-25ppg scorer, but I can't see him being much more than a Rashard Lewis-esque player at this point. I was MUCH more impressed with Carmelo off the bat than with this guy.

[daedalus]

haven't seen durant this year, didn't watch durant this year. never read that blog before but, as i'm reading it, i see him classed kobe bryant, gilbert arenas and ray allen in the same sentence.

now, i haven't seen arenas of late and he may have developed from his earlier days as a slasher so i'll leave that. but, uhhh, putting bryant and allen in the same category of shooters kind of discredit an opinion to me. although i am as big a non-fan of bryant (basketball-wise) as there are, i would never, ever deny his talent. he is probably *the* single most gifted basketball player i have ever seen in the NBA not to have worn #23 for the chicago bulls (in so far as the combination of basketball skills and athleticism). and i couldn't even try to argue one way or the others (game, not success and results). on the other hand, allen is a shooter while bryant is a scorer who can shoot. putting them together as the same class of shooters because they share some e-something % or other is asstarded at best.

[daedalus]

once again, to emphasize, i haven't watch durant either this year or last so, really, i have no argument to make with regards to him.

on the other hand, this article is . . . meh.

to say that mid-range jump shots are an inefficient way to score is idiotic, at best. if a game of basketball is ONLY about one-on-one and iso's a la an and-1 game (and it had been devolving that way which was why i started losing interest) then, yes, a mid-range jump shot will not work out. but to consider it to be inefficient is to consider every possession to boil down to the point giving the designated shooter on the play the ball on the wing and saying, "go for it" without interaction with any other players. that's, uhhh, an and-1 game not an organized basketball game.

i've never seen the spin move that durant does that is suppose to be a "gorgeous, gorgeous, gorgeous" move that is suppose to indicate his deficiency so i don't know how effective or efficient it is or will be. on the other hand, to consider someone developing a move that works for them a deficiency is beyond ignorant . . . it's fucking ign'ant (don't even deserve the 'or', damn it). ferdinand lewis alcindor developed some kind of hook shot because he didn't want to get his shot blocked anymore. timothy duane hardaway developed his crossover so he could get by people (gay s *and* straight). akeen abdul olajuwon developed a set of spin and fakes so he could get around people. how do these facts make these people "less"?

i'm not sure what the hell the "how good is he on his worst night" thing is suppose to prove. no, the examples he gave were *not* how good those people would be on their worst nights. they would give away the fucking ball, give up dumb ass fouls, give away possessions. THAT would be their fucking worst nights (assuming their play). if he wants to figure out and argue "how good is he on nights when his scoring touch leaves him", sure, go for it. that's very much different. i still don't know how much that tells me about how great a player is, let alone how good some kid is going to be.

finally, i think trying to judge a kid who, as has been said, is 2 years out of high school is asstarded. mcgrady, who this guy apparently loves and is relatively comparable to durant physically (build-wise) and age-wise, was a bit player in his first 2 years. jermaine o'neal who seems to have turned into a decent player (some good, some bad about his game) collected splinters on his ass for 4 years. kevin garnett was meh in his first year. i mean, good grief, people. impressive as they are, amare stoudemire and dwight howard are more the exceptions than the norms. like troy said, anthony had 2 good but not great seasons before he stepped up to the next tier. although he has much more NBA-ready build than durant, anthony had similar success in college and not to mention limited time spent there. going from high school where he probably dominated, he didn't become the best player on his team in college, not the best player in his conference but possibly the best player in the country. that's damn heady. he hasn't been challenged until now. maybe he'll step up and become dedicated with working out to get stronger and better. maybe he won't. but to judge and decide right now, based on today's showing, is silly.

[Logan]

Basically that article should have been aimed at the guys who thought Durant would step right in and be a superstar (aka Bill Simmons, though I love the guy), instead of the average fan who I don't think really thought a skinny kid like that could make that sort of contribution from Day 1.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I've only seen two Sonics games this year, and in one Durant scored in the high 20s against (I think) the Kings, the other game he shot something like 3-for-a million in a loss to the Grizzlies.

My biggest problem with him in both games is that he was really just looking for his own shot, but I'd say that's more of a problem with both the lack of other scorers on his roster, and the lack of anything resembling a competent offensive gameplan. He's not "slow" by any stretch of the imagination, but he just can't outrun SGs or quick SFs, and if he's shot isn't dropping he's one of those guys that lets it affect the rest of his game as well.

He's young and I have little doubt that he'll wind up a consistent 20-25ppg scorer, but I can't see him being much more than a Rashard Lewis-esque player at this point. I was MUCH more impressed with Carmelo off the bat than with this guy.

Player A - 21 points per game, 2.8 assists, 6 boards, 2.6 three point attempts per game

Player B - 18.9 points, 1.9 asssits, 4.3 boards, 4.8 three point attempts per game

A is Melo's rookie year. B is Durant so far this year. Melo had a higher shooting percentage, mainly because he didn't take nearly as many threes. Durants problem is that he's taking more three point shots than he should. A lot of Melo's extra boards were his own rebounds on missed shots. He also picked up the extra assist by playing down in the block and passing the ball to cutters.

Really, nothing I've seen out of Durant surprises me that much. I expected the rebounding to be a bit higher, but I think that is a direct result of him being asked to play SG. I don't expect his shot is going to be great for the next couple of seasons. I think it'll be just like Melo, he'll figue it out in year 3.

Despite all of that, there are still signs he's going to become a bigtime player. His clutch FG% is almost 10% points higher than his regular numbers (adjusted FG% is over 52% with the game on the line)

One thing he can't do (and we all knew this going in) is play defense. He's an absolute seive on the defensive end and can be exploited repeatedly. Part of that is playing out of position, part of it is going to come with practice. Still, some of it is pure effort. When he's on the court, the Sonics give up 116+ points per 100 possessions. When he's of of it, they give up 94.9. That rivals Kevin Martin as one of the most ridiculous splits in the league. (Martin is one of the worst defensive players I have ever seen, simply horrible)

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

Not only is he two years out of high school, but he was young for his grade. He just turned 19, right?

Update (prompted by Andy Katz) - Here is a list of prominent college freshmen this year plus Kevin Durant sorted by age:

Davon Jefferson	11/3/1986
OJ Mayo	11/5/1987
Donte Green	2/21/1988
Kyle Singler	5/4/1988
Austin Daye	6/5/1988
DeAndre Jordan	7/21/1988
Jerryd Bayless	8/20/1988
Kevin Love	9/7/1988
Kevin Durant	9/29/1988
Derrick Rose	10/1/1988
Eric Gordon	12/28/1988
Michael Beasley	1/9/1989

[Logan]

God that makes me feel old.

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by Logan

God that makes me feel old.

there's probably a perfectly good reason for why you'd feel that way.

[Huckleberry]

Durant is improving, as should be expected.

Kevin Durant Statistics - Basketball-Reference.com

Production-wise (not style of play), his first two seasons are eerily similar to Kobe Bryant's:

Kobe Bryant Statistics - Basketball-Reference.com

[Peregrine]

Bill Simmons has an interesting article on Durant in the ESPN Magazine:

Simmons: Rooting for the underrated is overrated, unless its for Manny or Durant - ESPN The Magazine

[whomario]

Durant is seriously loaded with skills and potential. Yeah, he´s not yet the game-controlling force that "makes teammates better", but then again he´s not yet surrounded by a team either good or fitting enough to even start to expect that. But he´s allready an incredible scorer and that´s the basis for getting to that next level.
He´s also really intriguing in terms of potential defensively, if him and Green develop further they could be an incredibly good and versatile 3/4 combo on both ends of the court.

[Izulde]

I don't follow the NBA so much that I had no idea who Durant played for until this thread.

[Subby]

Portland will go down in history as having taken Sam Bowie AND Greg Oden

[Anthony]

yeah, and next time they're in a position to choose between a potential franchise center and a guard/forward with excellent scoring potential they're gonna go with the guard/forward. but the joke would be on them.

after they picked the other guy that potential franchise center is gonna pull off his mask and he's gonna say "surprise....i'm Jesus! i got tired of people always thanking my Dad whenever they win a championship." then he'd throw on some sneakers and pound his chest and throw two fingers to the sky and say "this is for you, Pop!"

[Groundhog]

I haven't given up on Oden. Once he learns to stay out of foul trouble, I think he'll be a good bigman, and (if he stays healthy) perhaps even a dominant one. He just turned 21. Portland as they are have a much bigger need for a big like Oden (even with Przy playing well behind him), than a scoring forward like Durant.

Having said that, Durant is looking better this year, and a fair bit more "versatile" - ie. grabbing rebounds. Playing him purely as a perimeter player was an idiotic move.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I haven't given up on Oden. Once he learns to stay out of foul trouble, I think he'll be a good bigman, and (if he stays healthy) perhaps even a dominant one. He just turned 21. Portland as they are have a much bigger need for a big like Oden (even with Przy playing well behind him), than a scoring forward like Durant.

Having said that, Durant is looking better this year, and a fair bit more "versatile" - ie. grabbing rebounds. Playing him purely as a perimeter player was an idiotic move.

Oden's play this season is remarkable considering he's a rookie and coming off of microfracture surgery on his knee (meaning he probably won't be 100% until next eason). He still looks like he'll develop into a franchise center, which I'd take over any small forward in the NBA.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Oden's play this season is remarkable considering he's a rookie and coming off of microfracture surgery on his knee (meaning he probably won't be 100% until next eason). He still looks like he'll develop into a franchise center, which I'd take over any small forward in the NBA.

I'm pretty sure I'd take Lebron over Oden. I'd normally agree about Franchise center over Small Forward, and maybe it's b/c Lebron can play just about anywhere (though I'm pretty sure they consider him a SF), but the guy is simply amazing.

And I honestly can't stand Lebron, but the man-child is a beast!!

[vex]

Was looking for something else and ran across this thread. Some of the comments just get better with time One thing I would like to point out is that Durant leads the NBA in free throws made this season, so he's got that getting to the rim thing down it seems.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I remember when Carmelo came out. The knock on him was that he was "soft" and that he didn't get inside. He quickly proved to be a much, much better post player than projected. (in fact, the post up game is where Melo really shines)

Whoever knocked him on that did not watch enough tape.

The statement, " the post up game is where Melo really shines" was true in college.

[RedKingGold]

This thread is funny.

[Shkspr]

Looking back at this thread, I think the big takeaway is how short-sighted the Sonics were to let him go. Good job by the Thunder in picking him up for nothing.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

Looking back at this thread, I think the big takeaway is how short-sighted the Sonics were to let him go. Good job by the Thunder in picking him up for nothing.

lol

[Logan]

This thread is really nothing in the board's history of "wow does it look bad in hindsight."

Except for Atocep, who was clearly on the Oden over Durant side, and was WAY over the top in his criticism and definitiveness about Durant. But since he's a Big East guy and is pretty smart otherwise, we should let this one slide.

[TroyF]

I was wrong. I said year 3. He actually figured it out in year 2 and is a top 5 MVP candidate in year 3.

Shucks.

[Logan]

I think it's tough to keep him outside the top 2.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Logan

This thread is really nothing in the board's history of "wow does it look bad in hindsight."

Except for Atocep, who was clearly on the Oden over Durant side, and was WAY over the top in his criticism and definitiveness about Durant. But since he's a Big East guy and is pretty smart otherwise, we should let this one slide.

If basketball were played in vacuum free of injuries I'd still strongly consider Oden. His play this season before he went down was overlooked. The advanced metrics had him as a top 15ish player in just 24 minutes per night and he was very solid defensively. If he continued to improve his foul rate it's not hard to imagine him as the dominant big man people were saying he'd be.

Unfortunately, injuries are reality and it's hard to see Oden staying healthy considering the nature of the injuries he's had. He'll still only be 23 when he comes back and it seems like a lot of people are rooting against him just to laugh at Sam Bowie over Jordan all over again, but Bowie never showed anything close to the potential Oden has. Bill Simmons likes to pull out the comparison and other than the injuries it just doesn't fit here.

Durant's improvement this year is just as impressive as the improvement he showed last year. If he improves his defense he could jump into the group of players just below Lebron (with Wade, Kobe, and a healthy Chris Paul). It'll be interesting to see if Oklahoma City can keep their core together and another piece within the next couple years to take that team to the next level.