First overall pick: please make suggestions

[Uncle Briggs]

Through good fortune and a clever trade last year (that I now almost feel a little guilty about) I have the number one pick in our fantasy football league this year. Our league allows you to retain one player every year. (I currently have Jamal Lewis.) All of the premier RBs are gone. However, Brady, Manning, and Romo are all available. QBs in our league score 1 point per 25 yds with a bonus at 300, 6 points per TD, and 2 per conversion. There are no penalties for sacks or INTs.

Manning would normally be my first choice, but his knee worries me this year. I’ll probably pass on him.

Brady has the stats, and will probably want to avenge their loss last year. Plus, I hate the Pats, so if he’s on my team and good, I’m happy, and if he sucks and drags the Pats down I’m still happy. I worry about this foot injury, however.

Romo is unproven yet, but is the youngest of the three and could be a team fixture for years. He is also the favorite player of one of the bigger smack talkers in the league and he’ll hate it if he doesn’t get Romo, so that’s a plus.

So I’ll throw this open to the wisdom of the board, just for fun. Considering the above, or whatever else you want to consider, who should I draft?
(Poll to follow if I can figure it out)

[Groundhog]

I'd consider Brady the "safest" pick. I don't think he'll have the year he did last year, but he's the lowest risk/highest reward selection IMO.

[rowech]

I'd go with Brady.

[Chief Rum]

Not that these guys aren't the best choices, but in my experience, to pick a QB high, you have to believe it is the best move for your team. Because there is usually not as much drop off in QBs as there are at some other positions.

I would ask, when you say there are no "premier" RBs left, who are we talking about being left? Jamal Lewis isn't very inspiring at the most key position.

Plus, are any WRs taken? I would choose a top QB over a top WR, but no reason not to look at them.

[Uncle Briggs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Jamal Lewis isn't very inspiring at the most key position.

Tell me about it. Last year was my first year, and since I was learning anyway I decided to gamble for high upside on McNabb and Reggie Bush. Jamal, sadly, was my best player.


Unavailable players:

QB:
Drew Brees

RB:
Marion Barber
Larry Johnson
LT
Steven Jackson
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Brian Westbrook
Jamal Lewis

WR:
Chad Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Torry Holt

[Maple Leafs]

This one is easy.

Take Joseph Addai.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

This one is easy.

Take Joseph Addai.

+1. He's a very safe bet.

[Racer]

Also, hopefully you're league isn't PPR otherwise you should have kept Reggie Bush over Jamal Lewis. Bush may not be a very good NFL running back, but he's a top 10 in RB in PPR. If it's not PPR, good choice.

[Autumn]

I voted for Manning. The knee could end up biting you (and me, I have him in my league). But I think he's a safer bet than Brady. Peyton has been more than reliable for years. Brady is typically not a huge stat maker, and he's more likely to return to his previous production than reproduce last year's production, I don't think he's a steady bet. Romo I think is too unproven to take this high.

[Chief Rum]

Hard to pass up Brady or Manning, but Addai might be worth it.

Interesting that Brees is protected. He was who I had in mind for you as a fall back option if you went another direction with the top pick.

Other guys I like this season are Garrard, Big Ben, Palmer and Eli Manning. After that, maybe Garcia, Anderson, Favre, or Orton.









Okay, I threw in Orton to be sure you were paying attention. lol

[MrDNA]

First thing I thought when I saw the list of protected players was Addai. Him or Brady would really be the only two I would look at.

[Mustang]

How is scoring in your league?

If a standard type league, I'm taking Addai. I'd still take Portis, Grant or Gore before I take a QB.

Taking Romo to shut up someone is a bad idea. If he really wants Romo that bad, I'm trading the #1 to him for better picks.

[Celeval]

Yeah, if trading picks is allowed I'd definately let that guy who wants Manning or Brady overpay for him.

[Maple Leafs]

Yes, definitely trade down if you deicde to take Manning or Romo or somebody like that. It would be a mistake to take those guys with Addai on the board, but at least get some extra picks for it.

Also, if your league allows trading before keepers are declared then whoever has to cut Addai or Brady should really be working out a deal with whoever is going to be stuck keeping Tory Holt or Jamal Lewis.

[Uncle Briggs]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Also, if your league allows trading before keepers are declared then whoever has to cut Addai or Brady should really be working out a deal with whoever is going to be stuck keeping Tory Holt or Jamal Lewis.

My thought exactly. The people in question overvalued their castoffs drastically, especially considering I had the #1 pick.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Uncle Briggs

My thought exactly. The people in question overvalued their castoffs drastically, especially considering I had the #1 pick.

Pre-keeper trading can be a nightmare (I'm speaking from recent experience). It's one of the only scenarios where it's possible, even easy, to come up with win-win trades. But people over-value draft picks and then to lowball on players who are about to go back into the draft pool.

If I had a bad team in a keeper league I'd happily trade picks to get as many stud players as I could keep. Even moreso in leagues where teams keep several players.

[Uncle Briggs]

We drafted yesterday. Based on your suggestions I completely changed my draft strategy, results below (and thanks for the advice). A starting lineup in our league is QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, D.
>>
Keeper: Jamal Lewis
Pick #1: Joseph Addai RB Ind
#11: Ryan Grant RB GB
#14: Andre Johnson WR Hou
#35: Thomas Jones RB NYJ
#38: Brandon Marshall WR Den
#59: Patrick Crayton WR Dal
#62: Donovan McNabb QB Phi
#83: Joey Galloway WR TB
#86: Reggie Brown WR Phi
#107: Amani Toomer WR NYG
#110: Derek Hagan WR Mia
#131: Aaron Rogers QB GB
#134: Brandon Jackson RB GB
#155: Dominic Rhodes RB Ind
#158: Derrick Ward RB NYG
#179: Martin Grammatica K NO
#182: Tennessee D
>>
Please critique gently but accurately.

Edit: btw, Brady went #2, Manning mid-1st, and Romo #12. Our big Cowboys fan was #12 and it was hard to let Romo slide by to him. Trout went undrafted.

[Vince]

With Passing TD's worth 6 (most leagues I'm in have them valued at 4), I think it might have been smarter to go with the QB. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

[Racer]

Looks like you got yourself a very good team. The only thing I would have done differently is drafting my backup quarterback where you got Joey Galloway/Reggie Brown. I think it helps minimize risk by drafting a solid backup at quarterback especially with a very injury prone starter like McNabb. You also got yourself a respectable defense despite waiting to the last round to draft one.

[Uncle Briggs]

Originally Posted by Vince

With Passing TD's worth 6 (most leagues I'm in have them valued at 4), I think it might have been smarter to go with the QB. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

Yeah, that's my bad memory. QB touchdowns are worth 4.

[SteveMax58]

I would suggest going away from Brady. Just a hunch...but he could be due for an injury.