Fantasy Starters Advice

[henry296]

It is about that time, who should I start:

I have no superstar backs, so which 2 of these 4:

William Green vs. Ind
Curtis Martin vs. WAS
Eddie George vs. OAK
Moe Williams Vs. GB

Todd

[GrantDawg]

Hey Troy. Why don't you ask Skydog for your own forum? "Ask Troy," he can help you with all your fantasy needs.

[Radii]

Originally posted by henry296
It is about that time, who should I start:

I have no superstar backs, so which 2 of these 4:

William Green vs. Ind
Curtis Martin vs. WAS
Eddie George vs. OAK
Moe Williams Vs. GB

Todd

I think you have to start Martin and George until Williams or Green steps up, or Martin/George prove themselves to be duds this year...

[Bee]

George for sure. Probably I'd take Martin over Green at this point in the season.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by GrantDawg
Hey Troy. Why don't you ask Skydog for your own forum? "Ask Troy," he can help you with all your fantasy needs.

LOL. Maybe I should set up a web site and charge for the advice. (all FOFC members would of course get the information for free as I'm sure none would pay for it anyway.)

Now to the question at hand. . . tough choice. My first thought was to go with Green and George.

After looking at it, it's a coin flip at best. For what it's worth, Green played against the Colts in week 15. Couch was the starter that day, but he played pretty good. (287 yards, 8.2 per pass attempt) Green finished with 69 yards and one TD on the ground + 3 catches for 24 yards. The Colts didn't give up a 100 yard rushing game after Corey Dillon tor them up in week 5 last year.

On the other hand, you have the Redskins looking at a 40 year old QB with no WR. You know they are going to drive Martin up the wall.

I'd go with Green, but I might change my mind 15 minutes before gametime too.

TroyF

[GrantDawg]

I'd have to agree with Troy. You could look at it as "Martin will be the Jets offense" which could mean lots of touches, but more likely it will mean the Jets barely move the ball. Green hasn't proven much(and is going against a better defense), but he has a better offense around him.

[The_herd]

I would go Green and George. There wasn't too many backs better than Green in the 2nd half last year and you pretty much know what your going to get with George.

Martin will probably lose some carries to Lamont Jordan this season to keep him fresher and less injured this year. Moe Williams just isn't that talented of a runner, mostly a goaline back and will be splitting time with Onterio Smith.

Personally I think your wrong about not having a superstar back, Green will be one this year. And with a healthy McNair and an improved passing game from the Titans George should put up better numbers than last year. Curtis Martin isn't a bad insurance policy either.

[Samdari]

Well, obviously Williams is out.

I would actually rank the others as
Green
Martin
George

I think you will find William Green to be somewhat of a star RB for you this year. I do not think that George has much left in the tank, but is certainly a solid rotation-type guy to have at RB.

Ignoring the predictions about which back will have the better season, look at the matchups. Troy is right about the Jets trying to hammer away with Martin. As the Redskins have possibly the worst set of DT's in the NFL, this should not be a difficult task. Oakland was sneakily in the top 5 in the NFL in rush defense, both in ypg and ypc. Indianapolis was merely average to below average in both categories (although improving late in the year). Indy is not the most attractive matchup, but I think it looks better than Oakland.

[Ryche]

I don't know, I have a sneaky feeling that Williams scores twice this week. But taking my bias out of it, I'd go with Green and Martin. Get what you can from Curtis while he's healthy.

[Chief Rum]

Am I the only one that didn't discount Williams? If he practices today, Williams probably gets the starting job on Sunday. He is a red zone specialist when he's just a bit player, so you know he would be in there in touchdown situation. He catches the ball better than any of the other three backs, and Doug Chapman is hurt, so there isn't a third-down back to take away plays for him there. And he's playing the defense most likely to have problems with the run, especially early on in the season.

Of course, all of this is countered by the fact he might be splitting time right down the middle with Onterrio Smith. But if Williams gets in on mpost of the plays, he might end up being the most productive of that group.

I think Washington is going to stuff Martin, and he doesn't catch the ball anyway. My guess is you'll see Lamont Jordan out there as much as Onterrio Smith in Minnesota. George will play, which makes him a very attractive choice here, but he has been steadily proving he is an ordinary back now for three years, and he also doesn't catch the ball much.

All in all, I probably like Green the best in this situation. Holcomb is consistent and efficient enough to keep the Colts on their heels and give Green a little room. He is young coming off of a great second half, so you have to think he can take the next step in his development. And he is a better receiver than George or Martin, from what I have seen so far anyway (being a young back with a third down guy like White, it's hard to tell if Green is really good at catching the ball, but I seem to remember him grading out okay coming out of college). Indy's defense is improving and could be as good as Oakland's with ease (only Washington is clearcut better, IMO), so that's a negative for Green.

If Tice came out and said today, "Moe Williams will play all game as our top back and see as many plays as we can give him", then I would consider Williams. Since Tice won't say that, and he's a bloody liar anyway (IIRC), I would go with Green.

CR

[TroyF]

Chief,

My feelings on the Packer defense is well known. The problem is that you just have no idea what the Vikings are going to do with the carries. I agree, if I KNEW Williams would get 20 carries, I'd be starting him. The problem is trying to guess how many carries he really will end up with.

When you have a three guys who you know will get the 20 carries, it's tough to include the other guy in the discussion.

TroyF

PS: I'll be at the CU/UCLA game on Saturday Chief. Let me know if you want me to look for anything special and I'll do my best.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
I think Washington is going to stuff Martin, and he doesn't catch the ball anyway. My guess is you'll see Lamont Jordan out there as much as Onterrio Smith in Minnesota.

Just curious, what would make you think Washington is going to stuff anyone's run game? They have only one NFL caliber DT on the roster (Dalton), and he is not going to start. They have good LBs, but they have the worst run stopping line in the NFL.

I agree with you that we will see much more Lamont Jordan this year, especially on the goal, but this is a 150 yard game for Curtis - the Redskin run defense is that bad. In the last 3 seasons, Curtis Martin has caught 49, 53, and 70 balls, so I don't know where you get "doesn't catch the ball."

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, that's why I made the comment about Tice. If Williams was certain of getting carries, he would be an interesting choice. But his splitting time with Smith almost certainly takes him out of the running. And even if Tice came out and made a comment like that, like I said before, Tice has been known to make "inaccurate and inconsistent" statements before about his gameplans and, well, just about anything.

You know we differ on the ultimate demise of the Packers' D, but I think we do both agree it could be a lot worse than last year's. I especially think they could be bad early on, with Holliday just a couple weeks removed from his bicep injury, and Barnett playing his first game. Those two players are key to the run defense, and you have to figure if there was a game they would really struggle with, ti would be the first one.

Yeah, Green is definitely the safe pick here, and the other two workhorse backs are also "safer" thanks to their likely carry-load on Sunday (although I personally think a half-time Williams might almost be as productive as a three-quarters-time Martin this Sunday, as I expect him to be).

Did you have anything in mind for the CU/UCLA game? I will be trying to check it out myself, but I will be working Saturday.

Your receivers outran CSU's backs last week, so I will be interested in seeing how our corners hold up (who should be faster than the Rams' corners). Interested in how your line will hold up against ours. Interested in how our linebackers do. And, ultimately, how Matt Moore looks. From a CU perspective, I want to see Bloom return kicks and I want to see if Calhoun and Purify remind me of Brown or normal backs. And I want to see if Klatt willa ctually repeat last week's performance (which amazed me).

I'm looking forward to a tight and exciting game myself.

BTW, getting back tot he NFL thing, you ever notice we both like to give fantasy advice and commentary, but often disagree with each other? Maybe we should do a "Troy and Chief" show every week, where we make predictions about the week's games and how we expect them to turn out. Nothing long, a short paragraph per game, our picks and our expected scoresm maybe. What do you think?

CR

[Bee]

Originally posted by Samdari
Just curious, what would make you think Washington is going to stuff anyone's run game? They have only one NFL caliber DT on the roster (Dalton), and he is not going to start. They have good LBs, but they have the worst run stopping line in the NFL.

I agree with you that we will see much more Lamont Jordan this year, especially on the goal, but this is a 150 yard game for Curtis - the Redskin run defense is that bad. In the last 3 seasons, Curtis Martin has caught 49, 53, and 70 balls, so I don't know where you get "doesn't catch the ball."

I agree. I think anyone with a decent running game will give the Redskins problems this year. They have no DTs and even their DEs aren't great against the run. I'm guessing the Jets will bring Vinny in slow and try to run the ball agains the Skins and try to do a lot of little dump off passes to Martin to get Vinny comfortable for the first game or two. I think this could be a huge week for Martin.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Yeah, that's why I made the comment about Tice. If Williams was certain of getting carries, he would be an interesting choice. But his splitting time with Smith almost certainly takes him out of the running. And even if Tice came out and made a comment like that, like I said before, Tice has been known to make "inaccurate and inconsistent" statements before about his gameplans and, well, just about anything.

You know we differ on the ultimate demise of the Packers' D, but I think we do both agree it could be a lot worse than last year's. I especially think they could be bad early on, with Holliday just a couple weeks removed from his bicep injury, and Barnett playing his first game. Those two players are key to the run defense, and you have to figure if there was a game they would really struggle with, ti would be the first one.

Yeah, Green is definitely the safe pick here, and the other two workhorse backs are also "safer" thanks to their likely carry-load on Sunday (although I personally think a half-time Williams might almost be as productive as a three-quarters-time Martin this Sunday, as I expect him to be).

Did you have anything in mind for the CU/UCLA game? I will be trying to check it out myself, but I will be working Saturday.

Your receivers outran CSU's backs last week, so I will be interested in seeing how our corners hold up (who should be faster than the Rams' corners). Interested in how your line will hold up against ours. Interested in how our linebackers do. And, ultimately, how Matt Moore looks. From a CU perspective, I want to see Bloom return kicks and I want to see if Calhoun and Purify remind me of Brown or normal backs. And I want to see if Klatt willa ctually repeat last week's performance (which amazed me).

I'm looking forward to a tight and exciting game myself.

BTW, getting back tot he NFL thing, you ever notice we both like to give fantasy advice and commentary, but often disagree with each other? Maybe we should do a "Troy and Chief" show every week, where we make predictions about the week's games and how we expect them to turn out. Nothing long, a short paragraph per game, our picks and our expected scoresm maybe. What do you think?

CR

That would be kind of fun. Did you get my All-Time team write up? It was kind of raw, but I think I get my points across.

Calhoun is the RB to watch out for. He had a couple of long runs cut short by the turf. He's a Barry Sander like runner (please note that I'm not comparing him to Barry, just saying he uses sharp cuts like Barry used to) The turf was really bad at Investco last Saturday.

Klatt was incredible. He was deathly accurate. The defense was horrible. I just wanted to know if you wanted me to look for any one player or scheme (amount of blitzing or something like that) As for CU, I'm going to be interested in how the defense responds to what was a tough night and to see if Klatt is really that accurate or if it was a one game fluke.

TroyF

[TroyF]

Samdari,

I realize the Skins are horrible against the run. The problem is I'm not convinced the Jets can throw the ball at all. If Vinnie can't get it to the WR, the Redskins will be able to stack the box and impose their will on the Jets offense. Remember, the Jets are horribly weak at the guard position, so the mismatch won't be nearly as bad as it would against other teams the Redskins will play.

If Vinnie can pass the ball enough to keep them honest, Martin will have a solid game.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Samdari
Just curious, what would make you think Washington is going to stuff anyone's run game? They have only one NFL caliber DT on the roster (Dalton), and he is not going to start. They have good LBs, but they have the worst run stopping line in the NFL.

I agree with you that we will see much more Lamont Jordan this year, especially on the goal, but this is a 150 yard game for Curtis - the Redskin run defense is that bad. In the last 3 seasons, Curtis Martin has caught 49, 53, and 70 balls, so I don't know where you get "doesn't catch the ball."

Mostly because of the run-stuffing abailities of who they got in the offseason and the fact their back seven might be the best run-stopping support group in the league. Also, the fact that Martin no longer has the athleticism to run away from backs or play it shifty on the inside.

Noble and Chase aren't going to scare anyone in the pass rush, and they are new, but defensive tackle is one of the easiest positions to just plug in to a team. Chase has nice size and leverage and should be able to stymie an inside rush some. Dalton gets almost no pass rush push, but he is excellent against the run, better than Gardener (last year's starter) or Noble (the current injured starter), IMO. Those two should do an effective job of keeping interior linemen off of Trotter, who is one of the best middlebackers in the league--especially against the ground game--and with a year of the system under his belt now.

The Skins will be vulnerable to outside runs because Zellner and Upshaw can be bowled over by big tackles, but the Jets don't have huge tackles, and Martin couldn't really get outside even when he was young. And if Zellenr and Upshaw escape the tackles, they are active and athletic enough to take a back down in limited space. Arrington has one more year under his belt, too, and Armstead has been one of the best runstuffiung linebackers for a long, long time. They also added Bowen to Ohalete in the secondary, giving them two big-hit, run-support safeties. They should also see a lot of action in the running game.

I am more worried about the Skins in the passing game, where Arrington might be the only truly effective passrusher of the bunch. Unfortunately for the Jets, Bailey and Smoot have more than enough skill to stay with the Jets' slow receivers until Upshaw and Zellner can finally collapse the pocket on Testaverde. Expect Testaverde to have to do a lot of short throws to Becht or throw it out of bounds. He might do a lot of screens, too--unfortunately, that will be Jordan out there and not Martin.

Oh, and nice stating of Martin's receiving totals. Don't you actually mean 70, 53, and 49? Yeah, they have declined three straight years. Last year, he had just 372 yards receiving to go along with his 49 catches, and not a single one was for a score. Expect it to get even worse this season.

CR

[Samdari]

Originally posted by TroyF
The problem is I'm not convinced the Jets can throw the ball at all. If Vinnie can't get it to the WR, the Redskins will be able to stack the box

With who? In addition to having terrible tackles, the Skins have below average safeties. Considering that Mawae is one of the best in the league at rubbing out a MLB, I see the Redskins being able to present no resistance to any team running up the middle. I agree that the Jets need to prove they can pass, but I am not convinced that the Redskins will be able to stop anyone from running, even when loading up against the run.

Originally posted by TroyF
Remember, the Jets are horribly weak at the guard position, so the mismatch won't be nearly as bad as it would against other teams the Redskins will play.

The Jets are average at G, not horribly weak. Szott is still a very good run blocking guard, and Brent Smith is a former first round pick. Against these DTs, these guys will look like gods. I think you don't quite realize how bad these tackles are. They will be mismatched against every team they play this year, they have what most teams consider camp fodder as starters.

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by TroyF
That would be kind of fun. Did you get my All-Time team write up? It was kind of raw, but I think I get my points across.

Calhoun is the RB to watch out for. He had a couple of long runs cut short by the turf. He's a Barry Sander like runner (please note that I'm not comparing him to Barry, just saying he uses sharp cuts like Barry used to) The turf was really bad at Investco last Saturday.

Klatt was incredible. He was deathly accurate. The defense was horrible. I just wanted to know if you wanted me to look for any one player or scheme (amount of blitzing or something like that) As for CU, I'm going to be interested in how the defense responds to what was a tough night and to see if Klatt is really that accurate or if it was a one game fluke.

TroyF

Yeah, I got it. It was a good read. It was interesting to see how we went about it with different approaches. I'm still waiting for our last three guys to get their 100-words per side in, so we can go forward with that.

We could just do a brief "Troy and Chief" show for today, picking the game tomorrow. then work on the others later in the week if you like.

If we do it, I would recommend we do it back-and-forth if possible. Liek a commentasry. You would give your observations for a game, and I would respond with my own, and then do the next one. Back to you. But of course if we can't get that set, we can both just submit our observations for all of the games and just post them.

I'm very interested to see Calhoun play. Obviously, he's a different sort of back than Brown, and it will be interesting to see how we play him in comparison. I know the Bruins are pumped for this game--they see it as a retribution piece for last year.

Good point about the defense. They didn't do well at all. Our offense might have some issues, so it will be interesting to see which side overcomes them.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Samdari
With who? In addition to having terrible tackles, the Skins have below average safeties. Considering that Mawae is one of the best in the league at rubbing out a MLB, I see the Redskins being able to present no resistance to any team running up the middle. I agree that the Jets need to prove they can pass, but I am not convinced that the Redskins will be able to stop anyone from running, even when loading up against the run.



The Jets are average at G, not horribly weak. Szott is still a very good run blocking guard, and Brent Smith is a former first round pick. Against these DTs, these guys will look like gods. I think you don't quite realize how bad these tackles are. They will be mismatched against every team they play this year, they have what most teams consider camp fodder as starters.

Actually, Haley isn't a bad tackle at all. And he will be rotating with Chase and Dalton.

My main issue with this Sunday's gfame, though, is Martin. I just don't think he's going to have a great game, and that's mot a reflection on the Skins, but on him.

CR

[TroyF]

Chief,

I'm all for the back and forth. We could PM each other the messages and then have one of us copy and paste them into a post.

Samdari,

You might be right, but I just have a bad feeling about that Jets passing game this year. If you have no passing game, you'd better have a top 5 OL to ram the ball down other team's throats. I don't think the Jets have that. The Skins are bad at the DT spot, but I think they'll control the Jet offense. (which tells you a lot about what I think of the Skins offense)

You make some great points though. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

TroyF

[Bee]

Martin's numbers were down last year because of some injuries, but his numbers in the last few games were pretty decent when he was relatively healthy. Since he's healthy right now, I'd expect similar numbers 100+ yards and probably 4 or 5 receptions.

As far as the Skins DT, they have 1 legitimate NFL backup in Dalton and a couple scrubs. Noble was probably their best DT before he got hurt, which is a pretty sad statement in itself. Their DTs were better last year and they couldn't stop the run then so I don't see that changing.

[Chief Rum]

Sounds like a good idea, Troy. You want to start it off, or should I?

CR

[TroyF]

have at it, I'll respond later today. (just firing up ESPN football now)

TroyF

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Mostly because of the run-stuffing abailities of who they got in the offseason and the fact their back seven might be the best run-stopping support group in the league.

Noble and Chase aren't going to scare anyone in the pass rush, and they are new, but defensive tackle is one of the easiest positions to just plug in to a team. Chase has nice size and leverage and should be able to stymie an inside rush some. Dalton gets almost no pass rush push, but he is excellent against the run, better than Gardener (last year's starter) or Noble (the current injured starter), IMO. Those two should do an effective job of keeping interior linemen off of Trotter, who is one of the best middlebackers in the league--especially against the ground game--and with a year of the system under his belt now.

The Skins will be vulnerable to outside runs because Zellner and Upshaw can be bowled over by big tackles, but the Jets don't have huge tackles, and Martin couldn't really get outside even when he was young. And if Zellenr and Upshaw escape the tackles, they are active and athletic enough to take a back down in limited space. Arrington has one more year under his belt, too, and Armstead has been one of the best runstuffiung linebackers for a long, long time. They also added Bowen to Ohalete in the secondary, giving them two big-hit, run-support safeties. They should also see a lot of action in the running game.

I am more worried about the Skins in the passing game, where Arrington might be the only truly effective passrusher of the bunch. Unfortunately for the Jets, Bailey and Smoot have more than enough skill to stay with the Jets' slow receivers until Upshaw and Zellner can finally collapse the pocket on Testaverde. Expect Testaverde to have to do a lot of short throws to Becht or throw it out of bounds. He might do a lot of screens, too--unfortunately, that will be Jordan out there and not Martin.

Oh, and nice stating of Martin's receiving totals. Don't you actually mean 70, 53, and 49? Yeah, they have declined three straight years. Last year, he had just 372 yards receiving to go along with his 49 catches, and not a single one was for a score.

Lets take these one by one

Who did the skins acquire in the offseason that is a better run stuffer than what they had?

Daryl Gardener was voted the defensive MVP of the skins last year, largely due to how consistenly he blew up running plays. Wilkinson did not make many plays, but he held his ground well against blocks, something that the numerous teams who cut the skins current starters did not feel they could do.

Great analysis of how well Noble and Chase are going to stuff the Jets. If only Noble were not out for the year, and Chase were starting.

I do think Dalton is a good DT, and will improve the Skins, but he has only been with the team a week, and is not starting. He was a good pickup, but not much help tomorrow.

Their back 7 among the best run stuffing? I'll give that the LBs are a talented athletic bunch, but their safeties are castoffs. Ohalete and Bowen are big-hit run support safeties? Are you aware Bowen has made 60 tackles in three years? Ohalete did have a good season, but is not exactly Ronnie Lott back there.

Slow WR? Sure Chrebet, but Conway has always been a speed guy and Moss is one of the 10 fastest guys in the league. Do the Jets have a good matchup against the Redskin DBs? Hell no, but its not because of their overall lack of speed.

As for Martin's receiving totals, I was not trying to decieve by the order I listed them. To me it made sense to put them in order of most recent first. As for him getting 'only' 372 yards receiving, yeah, you say that like its terrible. Is he Marshall Faulk? No, but if henry had Marshall Faulk, we would not have needed this debate.

Also, I was not trying to make this personal, its just a lot of your claims don't make much sense to me. I look at this team and see the worst DT group in maybe the last 10 years in the NFL, journeyman safeties at best, and a defensive coordinator who has never coached an NFL game in that capacity, working for a head coach who neither knows nor cares anything about defense.

[henry296]

Great discussion guys. I think Green gets one of the two spots. He was the first RB i picked (although it was drafted by list, not in person). I think he showed some great promise at the end of last year and I think the Browns offensive should be pretty good.

The other choice is Martin or George. Martin was the next RB I picked. I think the probability is higher that he scores better than George. Martin should be very consistent with at least 75 yard plus a couple of catches as the Jets play it safe. George often loses TDs from McNair and seems to have lost more of a step than Martin.

As for Williams he is the wildcard and may have the biggest day if he scores a couple of short TDs, which he has done in the past. Since he was a waiver pick up, I will give him a couple of weeks to prove that Tice will give him the carries. He is the most likely to have 0 points or 14, but the known quantity is better when picking a lineup.

If all goes well, despite this pick I should still have a good chance to win. Here is the rest of the starters for this week:

Culpepper
Harrison
Owens
Driver
Crumpler
Miami
Jeff Reed

Todd

[Chief Rum]

Ummm, if you read my part on the DTs more carefully, you would have seen that I accidentally wrote Noble at the beginning when I meant Dalton. I even referred to Noble later as the injured starter, and referred to Dalton properly.

Please, if you're going to go out of your way to try and make me look like a fool, at least read the entire paragraph. It's clear to pretty much anyone that I just made a typing mistake, replacing one name for another. I'll acknowledge I made the mistake and missed it, but I am quite aware Noble is done for the year.

Dalton will be starting inside of the next two or three weeks, and will see plenty of time this Sunday. Defensive tackle is probably the least playbook-intensive position on the football field.

I may have overstated that Martin is going to get stuffed, but for reasons I have already stated, I don't think he's going to havce a great game. Both George and Green are better starts than him, IMO. I could very well be wrong, but that's why it's just my opinion.

I also think you are vastly underrating their safeties. Those guys aren't great, but they are solid, and run support is a specialty for them. If you want to talk their whole game, yes, they can be exploited in the passing game, but that's not going to happen against the Jets. BTW, Bailey has more than enough speed to stay with Conway, who isn't nearly as fast as he was years ago, and Smoot has the speed to stay with Moss. In three-receiver sets, Bowens would likely cover Chrebet, which he can do.

CR

[Samdari]

It is not clear when you refer to Noble as the current injured starter that you are aware he is out for the year. To me that implied that you thought he would be back. It may be obvious to you that your first reference to him was mistyped, but it really was unclear from here.

It is clear that both George and Martin have fallen off from their better days, and we obviously disagree who has fallen farther. I think George, you think Martin. In any case, even if the Redskins interior run defense is not the worst the league has seen in ten years, it is still looks better to run against than the Oakland D, which was very good against the run last year, and has not obviously fallen off.

I don't think Martin will deserve a start ahead of George every week, but given the matchups, I think Martin is the obvious choice.

EDIT: Good luck in your game henry.