Fantasy Football Championship Game advice

[PurdueBrad]

It's been a rough year (Stephen Jackson out, Matt Hasselbeck out, the Plaxico Burress saga, and some various other dings here and there) but I've managed to make it to the championship game, with our league's 7 seed (me) playing our league's 8 seed. Here's what I'm looking at:

QB- 6 points per td, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, -2 per pick/fumble.
Favre vs. Seattle in a must win game
Schaub vs. Oakland

RB (play 2)- 6 pts per td, 1 pt per 10 yds rushing, 1 pts per catch, 1 pt per 20 yds receiving
Stephen Jackson vs. SF
DeAngelo Williams vs. Giants
Jacobs (or Ward, have both) vs. Carolina
Portis vs. Philly

Right now, I'm leaning Schaub as the hot hand and, by the same theory, Jackson and Williams although Portis could be important vs. Philly. Any advice you have would be greatly appreciated.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

It's been a rough year (Stephen Jackson out, Matt Hasselbeck out, the Plaxico Burress saga, and some various other dings here and there) but I've managed to make it to the championship game, with our league's 7 seed (me) playing our league's 8 seed. Here's what I'm looking at:

QB- 6 points per td, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, -2 per pick/fumble.
Favre vs. Seattle in a must win game
Schaub vs. Oakland

RB (play 2)- 6 pts per td, 1 pt per 10 yds rushing, 1 pts per catch, 1 pt per 20 yds receiving
Stephen Jackson vs. SF
DeAngelo Williams vs. Giants
Jacobs (or Ward, have both) vs. Carolina
Portis vs. Philly

Right now, I'm leaning Schaub as the hot hand and, by the same theory, Jackson and Williams although Portis could be important vs. Philly. Any advice you have would be greatly appreciated.

I would go with Schaub, Jackson, and Williams. They seem to be playing better right now and their match-ups are just as good as anyone else's.

A website I use (fftoday.com), has a free tool that anyone can use and it compares the number of fantasy ppg a team gives up compared to the NFL average over the last five weeks. Using your scoring system, here's a matchup breakdown:

NYJ QB: 27.3% @Sea
Hou QB: 7.0% @Oak
Stl RBs: -6.9% vs. SF
Car RBs: 9.2%@ NYG
NYG RBS: 3.7% vs. Car
Was RBs: -44.4% vs. Phi (a red/avoid/statistically significantly bad matchup)

[Racer]

Here's mine. Although I've had some of injuries this season (Addai who I later traded, Colston, Bush), I've found myself in my league's championship game for the first time ever.

I need to choose two of the following running backs

Matt Forte vs. GB
Reggie Bush @Det
Pierre Thomas @Det
Ronnie Brown @KC
Chris Johnson vs.Pit

6 points per touchdown, 1 point per 20 yards receiving/rushing, .5 points per reception, and -2 points per fumble/interception. There is fractional scoring so I would get .75 points if one of my players ran for 15 yards in a game.

I'm also not sure what defense to start.

I currently own Philadelphia (@Was) and NY Giants (Car) neither of which is all that good of a matchup. Should I pickup and play a free agent defense instead? The best options there are San Francisco (@Stl), Cleveland (vs. Cin), and New Orleans (@Detroit).

2 points per safety/sack/interception/blocked kick, 6 points per touchdown (return TDs only awarded for defensive players), 10 points for shutout, 7 points for 1-6 points allowed, 4 points for 7-13 points allowed, 1 14-20 points, 0 points for 21-27 points allowed, and -1 to -4 points after that.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Racer

I would go with Schaub, Jackson, and Williams. They seem to be playing better right now and their match-ups are just as good as anyone else's.

A website I use (fftoday.com), has a free tool that anyone can use and it compares the number of fantasy ppg a team gives up compared to the NFL average over the last five weeks. Using your scoring system, here's a matchup breakdown:

NYJ QB: 27.3% @Sea
Hou QB: 7.0% @Oak
Stl RBs: -6.9% vs. SF
Car RBs: 9.2%@ NYG
NYG RBS: 3.7% vs. Car
Was RBs: -44.4% vs. Phi (a red/avoid/statistically significantly bad matchup)

Racer, thanks a ton for your info! I will check the site. I'll answer your questions in un momento.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Racer

Here's mine. Although I've had some of injuries this season (Addai who I later traded, Colston, Bush), I've found myself in my league's championship game for the first time ever.

I need to choose two of the following running backs

Matt Forte vs. GB
Reggie Bush @Det
Pierre Thomas @Det
Ronnie Brown @KC
Chris Johnson vs.Pit

6 points per touchdown, 1 point per 20 yards receiving/rushing, .5 points per reception, and -2 points per fumble/interception. There is fractional scoring so I would get .75 points if one of my players ran for 15 yards in a game.

I'm also not sure what defense to start.

I currently own Philadelphia (@Was) and NY Giants (Car) neither of which is all that good of a matchup. Should I pickup and play a free agent defense instead? The best options there are San Francisco (@Stl), Cleveland (vs. Cin), and New Orleans (@Detroit).

2 points per safety/sack/interception/blocked kick, 6 points per touchdown (return TDs only awarded for defensive players), 10 points for shutout, 7 points for 1-6 points allowed, 4 points for 7-13 points allowed, 1 14-20 points, 0 points for 21-27 points allowed, and -1 to -4 points after that.

For your RBs- Immediately no to Chris Johnson, I don't like the match-up. I want to say yes to Bush but with them out of the playoff hunt, I'm wondering if they'll take it easy on him. So he and Pierre could split points. Forte vs. Green Bay is probably a solid play and Ronnie Brown is a definite. In order I would go Brown and then Forte (IF we find out Bush is to go all game or they won't be splitting time as much, I would take whichever Saint will be the focus over Forte).

Defense- I have a similar problem. I have just the Eagles but frankly, they've been kicking the crap out of teams. So I want to play them. Sit your Giants D. As for picking up another D, I may be picking up the Jets as another option but I want to just go Eagles.

[PurdueBrad]

Pierre Thomas vs. Matt Forte has been bugging me since I posted. That is a really, really tough call. Thomas has been hot, I would actually reverse my previous advice and go with Thomas over Forte, as he should see lots of time regardless against the Lions. So my new advice is: Ronnie Brown and Pierre Thomas.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Ok, flex spot:

Addai
Houshmanzadeh
Mo. Morris
DeShaun Foster
Braylon Edwards

QB:
Rivers@TAM
Thigpen vs. MIA
Hill @ STL

[MikeVic]

I would not start Ronnie Brown. I'd rather go with Thomas and Forte.

[DeToxRox]

I'm going for the repeat in one of my leagues, a cool 1500 bucks on the line (300 entry per person)

Sadly my Flex options are not exactly robust ..

Tashard Choice
Marion Barber III
DeShaun Foster
Justin Fargas
Malcolm Floyd

I figure I'll play Choice because I doubt MBIII plays this week, and even though it's a shitty matchup, I have enough other talent that if I can get 10-12 points out of him I'll be happy.

The only other option is Foster assuming Gore is out, but with Dallas playing Saturday, that becomes a risk.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Favre vs. Seattle in a must win game
Schaub vs. Oakland

I'd go Favre. The Raiders are a brutal team, but they have a solid pass defence. They ate Delhomme alive a few weeks ago and have been a tough matchup for other teams. If Andre Johnson lines up against Nnamdi Asomugha, you may be down to rooting for Kevin Walters to have a big game.

By the way, I'm in three leagues and won zero playoff games this year.

[henry296]

Bush is now out for season.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Ok, flex spot:

Addai
Houshmanzadeh
Mo. Morris
DeShaun Foster
Braylon Edwards

Any advice here? If Addai plays should he be the guy? If he doesn't who do you like?

Really at a loss for this one.

[PackerFanatic]

Housh is probably the safest bet.

I am actually in the semi-finals (stupid Week 17 final) but it is still just as important.

Rodgers @ Chicago or McNabb @ Washington? Both have been decent, despite Rodgers not winning recently.

Also for my flex...

Lance Moore @ DET (currently in there)
Larry Johnson v. MIA
Issac Bruce @ STL

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

McNabb/Moore

Thanks for the advice. That's how I had it pegged, but I'm tempted by Addai.

[PackerFanatic]

I've been tempted my Addai most of the year, hence why I finished 4 - 9 in one of my leagues (not just because of him, but he was a large contributing factor)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Heh. Luckily I grabbed Turner and Slaton, so Addai has been serviceable as my RB3.

I like McNabb, btw, because I feel like the Redskins are DOA.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Ok, flex spot:

Addai
Houshmanzadeh
Mo. Morris
DeShaun Foster
Braylon Edwards

QB:
Rivers@TAM
Thigpen vs. MIA
Hill @ STL

It's unfortunate that the Colts game is Thursday instead of Sunday because Foster (@StL) is probably the best play if Gore sits. I'm not sure who is the better play between Addai and Housh. The thing about Addai is that the Colts use Rhodes quite a bit so there's a fairly high chance that Rhodes will steal a TD from Addai. As long as there isn't bad weather in Cleveland, Housh is probably a safer but also the less upside play.

I would probably choose Rivers.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Housh is probably the safest bet.

I am actually in the semi-finals (stupid Week 17 final) but it is still just as important.

Rodgers @ Chicago or McNabb @ Washington? Both have been decent, despite Rodgers not winning recently.

Also for my flex...

Lance Moore @ DET (currently in there)
Larry Johnson v. MIA
Issac Bruce @ STL

I'd choose Rodgers and Moore. Bruce seems like a hit or miss guy (or at least he was earlier in the season). The one thing about Moore though is that Detroit gives a lot more fantasy points to running backs then they do to quarterbacks and wide receivers.

[Racer]

By the way, it may seem like a silly question to ask, but who are people playing at kicker this week? Every point matters in the championship game.

I was going to go with Matt Prater (vs. Buf), but he's been missing quite a few field goals lately so I've been pretty uneasy about playing him. I've picked up Garrett Hartley (@Det) and I'm leaning towards playing him over Prater.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Hadn't really thought about kickers as I tend to stick with one all season. I have Gostkowski and weather may be an issue. Should I switch? I could pick up Folk (Bal), Gould (GB), Nedley (@STL), or Hartley (@DET).

[stevew]

I'm starting deSuck Foster this week in our finals. Pray for me.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Pierre Thomas vs. Matt Forte has been bugging me since I posted. That is a really, really tough call. Thomas has been hot, I would actually reverse my previous advice and go with Thomas over Forte, as he should see lots of time regardless against the Lions. So my new advice is: Ronnie Brown and Pierre Thomas.

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I would not start Ronnie Brown. I'd rather go with Thomas and Forte.

I think I'm going to go with Forte and Thomas. The thing that really worries me is that Forte would get playing limited time on Monday night due to injury.

[ArlingtonColt]

Well I won my league last night on Robbie Gould's overtime kick! My opponent had Greg Jennings and pulled ahead until the greatest moment in my fantasy football life It's moments like these that make me love fantasy sports... it actually made a mostly meaningless game worth watching. Thanks again Robbie Gould!!

[CleBrownsfan]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

Well I won my league last night on Robbie Gould's overtime kick! My opponent had Greg Jennings and pulled ahead until the greatest moment in my fantasy football life It's moments like these that make me love fantasy sports... it actually made a mostly meaningless game worth watching. Thanks again Robbie Gould!!

awesome!! I bet you draft Gould next year!!

[kingfc22]

Woot! Took home my first fantasy football championship with LeRon McClain, DeAngelo Williams and Larry Fitzgerald carrying my team in the final week.