06-29-2009, 11:18 AM | #1 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Final Jeopardy Bidding Craziness
So I watched an episode of Jeopardy over the weekend (yes, we DVR Jeopardy, deal with it), and I thought the way Final Jeopardy went down was pretty interesting. For now, I'll present the results without comment.
Before Final Jeopardy: James -- 15,400 Emily -- 17,200 Srikanth -- 2,900 Srikanth gets Final Jeopardy wrong. He bids 701, bringing him down to 2,199. James also gets Final Jeopardy wrong. He bids everything, bringing him down to 0 (okay, one comment -- I did not expect this bid from him, since Alex mentioned that so far, no one had got Final Jeopardy right that week, and he won the day before by being in second place and bidding 0 when everyone got the answer wrong). Emily also gets Final Jeopardy wrong, and bids 15,000, bringing her down to 2,200. Since discussions of Final Jeopardy bidding are usually fun around here, I thought I'd post it here, and see where you all take it. |
||
06-29-2009, 11:18 AM | #2 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Oh, and if anyone is curious, the Final Jeopardy category was "Slang Terms"
|
06-29-2009, 11:19 AM | #3 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA
|
Who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen!
|
06-29-2009, 11:25 AM | #4 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
|
The person in third should have wagered 699 or 700. That was the only mistake (besides getting the question wrong).
|
06-29-2009, 11:26 AM | #5 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
I'll take 3 fucking dumb people for 1000 Alex!
|
06-29-2009, 11:26 AM | #6 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
|
Emily and James with the mis-bids. James should've bet 1801, and Emily should've bet 13,600. Srikanth probably feels like a doofus after all that, but his bet is fine, I think.
I'm sure Kickstand will be along in a moment to tell me how stupid I am.
__________________
My listening habits |
06-29-2009, 11:28 AM | #7 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2005
|
Do you happen to remember the answer and question?
|
06-29-2009, 11:29 AM | #8 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Wisconsin
|
701 seems really really odd and was probably a screwup. I'd think he wanted to bid 699 just in case the bids were 15400 and 15401.
__________________
You, you will regret what you have done this day. I will make you regret ever being born. Your going to wish you never left your mothers womb, where it was warm and safe... and wet. i am going to show you pain you never knew existed, you are going to see a whole new spectrum of pain, like a Rainboooow. But! This rainbow is not just like any other rainbow, its... |
06-29-2009, 11:30 AM | #9 | ||
Favored Bitch #2
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Here
|
__________________
Quote:
Quote:
|
||
06-29-2009, 11:42 AM | #10 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
|
My favorite Final Jeopardy moment:
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
06-29-2009, 11:45 AM | #11 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
I think James could have bet up to $9599. He definitely screwed up by overbetting which is strange because he won the day before in the same position.
1st place should have bet $13,600 to tie or $13601 to win outright and I think 3rd place bet $701 to beat Emily if she bet $13,600 and missed. I don't remember the exact question, but the answer was whipping boy. Last edited by Jas_lov : 06-29-2009 at 11:46 AM. |
06-29-2009, 12:35 PM | #12 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
|
Quote:
Yeah, the question was worded somewhat strangely, I thought. I've always been of the mind that if the FJ question is answered incorrectly by all three contestants, Alex should browbeat the writers/research team.
__________________
null |
|
06-29-2009, 12:39 PM | #13 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
The guy in the lead should have gotten booted for not betting the extra dollar.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
06-29-2009, 12:41 PM | #14 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
Some smart people are really dumb
|
06-29-2009, 12:42 PM | #15 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
|
DVR is the ONLY way to watch Jeopardy, as they have like 7 minutes of commercials before Final Jeopardy. |
06-29-2009, 12:43 PM | #16 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
The bid of 701 is about the only thing I see here that does make sense, actually. I believe that his winning plan is to get the question right, and have the other two get it wrong. He's anticipating a bid of 13,600 from the champion, which if she gets it wrong, would put her at $3,600, and if he gets it right, he would be at 3,601. Maybe a bet of 700 is fine, since it would tie her at 3,600 in this case, but a bet of 699 means that he has to hope she bids 13,601. |
|
06-29-2009, 12:49 PM | #17 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
|
Quote:
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
__________________
My listening habits |
|
06-29-2009, 12:51 PM | #18 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
I can see a misbid by James -- my only guess as to his thought process is that since the category seemed easy, he figured the only way he could win was through a fluke where Emily didn't get it right. I'm not so sure about Emily yet -- it seems like there must have been something in her bid that worked out for her, since she won by 1, don't you think? |
|
06-29-2009, 12:53 PM | #19 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
|
Don't they pretty much give them calculators or something that helps them figure out what to bid?
|
06-29-2009, 12:54 PM | #20 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
|
I'm not a Jeopardy fan anyway, as I find Alex to be insufferable. But my wife likes it. So I get sucked in sometimes. |
06-29-2009, 12:55 PM | #21 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
I don't think you really anticipate bids of 15,400 and 15,401. I think you anticipate either 13,600 or 13,601 or 13,700 from Emily, and you probably don't know what to anticipate from James, but you probably just have to hope it's high or you're just screwed anyway. So I think a bid of 699 seems like a shame since Srikanth gets it right, but Emily gets it wrong, he only wins or ties on 2 of the 3 expected bids from Emily. |
|
06-29-2009, 12:56 PM | #22 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
That's true. And take out the announcing of their occupations, Alex's pre-game banter, and the inane chatter in the middle, and the whole thing is a lot more watchable. |
|
06-29-2009, 12:58 PM | #23 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
Do they? I have no idea. That's cool -- but still, this thread is more about the thought processes that lead to what they choose to do with the calculator they're given, rather than whether or not they can do the math in their head. |
|
06-29-2009, 01:01 PM | #24 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
|
Alex always looks like he'd rather be eating a crap sandwich than talking to the contestants.
|
06-29-2009, 01:01 PM | #25 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
|
It's odd. Maybe Emily thought it was easy so she bet as much as possible, while still staying ahead of Srikanth if both missed and he bet his expected amount. But this strategy assumes James is going to bet everything, and I don't know how she could expect that.
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
06-29-2009, 01:05 PM | #26 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
Ok, I found the question on the Jeopardy website: Q: NOW REFERRING TO A SCAPEGOAT, THIS TERM ORIGINATED AS SOMEONE DESIGNATED AS A "PROXY FOR CORRECTION" A: What is a whipping boy? |
|
06-29-2009, 01:17 PM | #27 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
Alex was pretty annoying in this episode, too -- he yelled "DUH!" at the contestants when they couldn't guess the only state that has an "if" in it. But as bad as he is, the Clue Crew is worse. I was looking on the web site to see if I could find the Final Jeopardy question, and I saw a page where you could get one of them to come give a speech or some crap. Gag me. |
|
06-29-2009, 01:27 PM | #28 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
|
Quote:
The ONLY way the 3rd place person can win is if the other two get it wrong. Betting so that you have to get the question right to win should be avoided at all costs. $Texas is a better bet than $701 |
|
06-29-2009, 01:30 PM | #29 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
|
Quote:
Good result doesn't mean Good decision. |
|
06-29-2009, 01:52 PM | #30 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
|
Quote:
The first part of your statement is true, but if Emily got it wrong and only bet the expected amount (say, $13,601), Srikanth would lose if he bet nothing, but would have had a chance to win if he bet $700.
__________________
My listening habits |
|
06-29-2009, 02:11 PM | #31 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
|
Quote:
Okay, let me go through my thinking one contestant at a time from the top. James: He knows that Emily has to miss for him to win. If Emily gets it right she can simply bid over his maximum amount. So he should plan on bet of $13,601 from Emily. If she misses, she will be at $3,599 at the end. Srikanth, though, can get to $5,800 with a maximum bet. So if he misses he wants to stay above that value, not just above $3,599 if Emily misses. Therefore he should bid $9,599 for Final Jeopardy. Emily: She can't take the chance that James has definitely taken all this into account. She simply needs to bet $13,601 as detailed above if she has any confidence in answering correctly. On the other hand, if she has little to no confidence in that, she should plan on how to win after she misses the question. Following the same logic above, if she misses she has to have James miss, also. If she's going to miss and James misses, then she knows she doesn't want to bet it all even if James does bet it all. She should follow the above logic and stay above the maximum amount Srikanth can reach. By betting $11,398 she will stay above that value as well as above the possible $9,599 bet of James. Srikanth: Has to have both other players miss. As he has less than half of both the other players, he also has to count on some bad bids from them and betting his entire amount is relatively pointless. With so much to consider he should count on the $13,601 bet from Emily to stave off James. If she misses that, she will have $3,599 left. If James makes the proper $9,599 bid then Srikanth is screwed no matter what. Therefore he should plan on James making a bid of $11,800 in the event that James worries only about both he and Emily missing the question and forgets about Srikanth. If that happens and he misses, James will be left with $3,600 ahead of Emily. Therefore Srikanth should bet $701 to finish ahead of James and, in his perfect scenario, win $3,601-$3,600-$3,599. Okay, so where are the holes in this logic? I'm sure this board can find them.
__________________
The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
|
06-29-2009, 02:55 PM | #32 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
|
Quote:
Yeah that was my bad. I thought 3rd had enough to cover 1st-2nd. |
|
06-29-2009, 03:04 PM | #33 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
If you are seriously suggesting that Emily should bid 11,398, then you need to get out of your ivory tower. No matter how well you argue that it's irrational for James to bid more than 9,599, in the real world, Emily just has to bid at least 13,600. |
|
06-29-2009, 03:17 PM | #34 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
|
06-29-2009, 09:39 PM | #35 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
|
Quote:
Eh, I mentioned that she should bet the 13,601. The other stuff for her was only if she was fairly certain she would miss the question.
__________________
The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
|
06-30-2009, 12:51 AM | #36 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Norman, OK
|
BTW, DVR Jeopardy! is right on the money. I can watch it in 15 minutes sans commercials and interviews.
|
06-30-2009, 07:03 AM | #37 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
|
I think I agree with Huckleberry above... sort of makes you wonder how many levels deep the cocntestants were thinking here, or perhaps it was just the curious assembly of numbers that led to the one dollar victory? Do we really give Emily credit for thinking through all that and coming up with the exact bid to defeat Sikanth if the question was indeed a stumper? Seems like a lot of conditions needed to be met for that to come together, and you certainly cannot count on contestants to follow perfect logic in their bidding.
Thanks for posting. One more vote here for the DVR approach, though Mrs Q actually wants to watch the interviews. *shurg* |
06-30-2009, 10:07 AM | #38 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Old Forge, PA
|
J! Archive - Wagering calculator
In short, James was way off his rocker, Emily slightly so, and Srikanth got unlucky.
__________________
There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people...religion, politics, and the Great Pumpkin. - Linus Van Pelt |
07-06-2009, 01:18 PM | #39 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
An episode from last week made me want to post here again. We've got:
Nina -- 15,000 Shima -- 5,600 Nelson -- 8,600 Shima gets Final Jeopardy right, and bids 3,001. She moves up to 8,601. Nelson gets Final Jeopardy right, and bids 3,200. He moves up to 11,800. Nina gets Final Jeopardy wrong, and bids 2,500. She moves down to 12,500, and still wins. Seems like Nelson really screwed the pooch on that one. Last edited by Passacaglia : 07-06-2009 at 01:58 PM. |
07-06-2009, 01:46 PM | #40 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
|
Looking at it quickly, i think he should have either bet at least 4200 or up the whole amount, those both seemed to be reasonable bidding options.
I don't get the 2200 bid though, that seems dumb cause it doesn't even cover Shima potentially doubling up. Last edited by stevew : 07-06-2009 at 01:49 PM. |
07-06-2009, 01:59 PM | #41 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
My bad -- Nelson actually bid 3,200. Fixed. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|