(POL) Official Super Tuesday Thread

[albionmoonlight]

Monday predictions:

Obama does much better than expected on the Democratic side. Clinton wins NY and NJ by small margins. She also wins Arkansas and Oklahoma by decent margins. Obama wins all the other states, some by large margins, others by razor thin margins. A flood of endorsements follows (Gore, Edwards, Richardson), and he ends up getting the nomination by the end of the month.

Romney does much better than expected on the GOP side. Huck's supporters end up flocking to him as the "not McCain." He ends up winning a few states very closely (including California). Because of the winner take all rules for the GOP, this puts him in a pretty good position afterwards. It ends up becoming a two man race for the GOP instead of the McCain walkover that was expected.

Odds of me being right on both predictions: ~25% or less.

[Jas_lov]

It's looking like Romney is surging in the most important state of the day, California. McCain's lead has shrunk ever since Schwartzeneger endorsed him. Romney just wanted a split there, but winning the state would be huge. Also keep in mind that not all GOP states are winner take all, including California. McCain is going to win N.Y., N.J., Arizona, probably Missouri and Connecticut which are all winner take all though. The only winner take all states Romney will likely win are Utah and Montana. He needs to take a majority of the states to keep it close, and I don't think that'll happen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

The Democrat race will likely not be settled after tomorrow. Unless one candidate is able to sweep all of the close states like California, Connecticut, Alabama, Missouri, and the majority of the states that haven't been polled yet. Many states are closed primaries that benefit Hillary. I think it'll basically be a wash and noone will come out that far ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

[Fighter of Foo]

I think Obama absolutely dominates tomorrow. This race feels like a referendum on an incumbent(Hillary) much, much more than it should. In races involving incumbents, undecideds typically break for the challenger by a margin of around 4:1. Since Hillary's not a true incumbent I don't think Obama will see that big of a bump, but I do think he's the big winner tomorrow.

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

I'm very heavy on Obama to become President at 7:2 so take that for what it's worth.

"Yes, we can" vs. "Yes, she can." There you have the key difference between the two campaigns.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.co...doubt-pla.html

No clue on the R side. It's a train wreck in slow motion and even if McCain ends up as nominee Republican numbers as a whole are so far in the toilet it's hard to envision him winning the Presidency.

[st.cronin]

My guess is both are actually very close, and nothing is settled.

[Big Fo]

Is it strange that on both sides, the current favorite is commonly regarded to have a worse chance in the general election than the main challenger? I can't say I've been around long enough to follow many Presidential elections in depth.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Is it strange that on both sides, the current favorite is commonly regarded to have a worse chance in the general election than the main challenger? I can't say I've been around long enough to follow many Presidential elections in depth.

I don't that's true on the Republican side. McCain right now is the favorite, and he's considered to be their strongest GE candidate by most people.

[Buccaneer]

even if McCain ends up as nominee Republican numbers as a whole are so far in the toilet it's hard to envision him winning the Presidency

You must not follow any of the head-to-head polls.

[SackAttack]

I'd like to go on record as saying I don't know what the fuck will happen in California tomorrow.

[JPhillips]

Buc: You've told me that polls don't mean anything!

As for tomorrow I expect Obama will roughly tie Clinton for delegates, but I still think he needs to win CA to garner enough positive media coverage. If Hillary wins NY, MA, NJ, and CA he'll face a very tough media environment even if the delegate count is very close.

On the Republican side I think Romney will win CA, but it will be close and they'll roughly split the delegates. McCain will clean up in winner take all states and while he won't win it all tomorrow, he'll be far enough in front that Romney will concede sometime this week.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Buc: You've told me that polls don't mean anything!

As for tomorrow I expect Obama will roughly tie Clinton for delegates, but I still think he needs to win CA to garner enough positive media coverage. If Hillary wins NY, MA, NJ, and CA he'll face a very tough media environment even if the delegate count is very close.

On the Republican side I think Romney will win CA, but it will be close and they'll roughly split the delegates. McCain will clean up in winner take all states and while he won't win it all tomorrow, he'll be far enough in front that Romney will concede sometime this week.

Ah, but those would be for exit polls. I do have the RCP site linked since they have been pretty good.

[DaddyTorgo]

I still haven't decided who i'm voting for

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I still haven't decided who i'm voting for

It would be cool if you post after you vote to let us know what went through your head and how you ended up finally making your decision.

I wish that my state voted tomorrow; it would be neat to have a voice during an election about which people are actually excited.

[Young Drachma]

Hillary tears up again. This time at Yale.

[Maple Leafs]

Obama's campaign is saying they'll consider tomorrow a win if he comes within 100 delegates. So that seems to indicate he expects to lose, but keep it close.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It would be cool if you post after you vote to let us know what went through your head and how you ended up finally making your decision.

I wish that my state voted tomorrow; it would be neat to have a voice during an election about which people are actually excited.

talking it through, i've decided to vote hillary

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

talking it through, i've decided to vote hillary

So the crocodile tears did it for you, huh? We will go from fake sincerity in biting ones lower lips to shedding a tear when you want people to believe you?

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't that's true on the Republican side. McCain right now is the favorite, and he's considered to be their strongest GE candidate by most people.

Maybe I'm giving too much credence to the whole "superconservative Republicans and their talk radio shows hate McCain" thing, I guess they'll still support him in the general election.

Olberman just asked a pundit if the Super Bowl result could affect voter turnout in NY, NJ, and MA.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Maybe I'm giving too much credence to the whole "superconservative Republicans and their talk radio shows hate McCain" thing, I guess they'll still support him in the general election.

Esp. advocated by self-centered blowhards? The neo-cons are one type of conservatives and may or may not have anything to do with other types of conservatives, ranging from social to fiscal to isolationists. From what I have followed over the past 30 years, one doesn't presume to speak for the others.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Maybe I'm giving too much credence to the whole "superconservative Republicans and their talk radio shows hate McCain" thing, I guess they'll still support him in the general election.

Olberman just asked a pundit if the Super Bowl result could affect voter turnout in NY, NJ, and MA.

I think they'll come around in the general, but what I don't get is why there's all this dislike for McCain and all of this love for Romney being the only conservative left. Hasn't Romney held as many "liberal" positions as McCain in the past? He was elected the Governor of Massachussetts for God's sake.

But whoever is the nominee is going to have a tough time running away from Bush which I think was Foo Figher's point. If Obama wins the democratic nomination, it could be a landslide. Hillary would make it interesting, but I still think she'd win. It'll probably come down to the same swing states it does every year and does anyone really see the Democrats losing any states that Kerry got? I live in Iowa and I think they'll pick this state up easily. Our democrat governor was elected by a decent margin and the democrats picked up two house seats here in 06. Also, the state legislature became democratically controlled. Then they've just gotta win a state like Ohio or Florida and it's game over.

[JPhillips]

Maple: I'd bet they think they'll come out ahead in delegates, but now they'll beat expectations. 100 delegates is too close if they really think they're behind.

[DaddyTorgo]

actually what did it for me was this:

hillary and barak are basically (more or less) a wash domestically (and that's giving a lot of credit that maybe isn't due to how much effect a president can have on large-scale domestic policy issues).

what wins out for me is the image of "Barak Obama traveling to Palestine to meet with Arab leaders with his wife" versus "Hillary Clinton traveling to Palestine to meet with Arab leaders along with Bill Clinton."

So essentially what tips it for me is the fact that I feel that the Clintons (combined) have a better shot at restoring our international standing than the Obama's.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

actually what did it for me was this:

hillary and barak are basically (more or less) a wash domestically (and that's giving a lot of credit that maybe isn't due to how much effect a president can have on large-scale domestic policy issues).

what wins out for me is the image of "Barak Obama traveling to Palestine to meet with Arab leaders with his wife" versus "Hillary Clinton traveling to Palestine to meet with Arab leaders along with Bill Clinton."

So essentially what tips it for me is the fact that I feel that the Clintons (combined) have a better shot at restoring our international standing than the Obama's.

That's one hell of a Harvard v. Yale game. But I'd take Harvard in that one, easily.

Thanks for sharing your rationale, though. Voting is a personal choice and at least you've made a decision. I can't say I have.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

That's one hell of a Harvard v. Yale game. But I'd take Harvard in that one, easily.

Thanks for sharing your rationale, though. Voting is a personal choice and at least you've made a decision. I can't say I have.

lol meaning what (harvard vs. yale?)


I don't know...i think domestically either one is going to be forced to adapt what they want anyway and it's going to go through so many committee's and iterations that by the end it will not even resemble their original plan, so saying "well obama wants healthcare done this way versus hillary's plan done this way" seems kind of...i don't know...a hollow rationale for choosing one over the other.

then again, I could change my mind between now and tommorrow night.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

lol meaning what (harvard vs. yale?)

Barack and his wife are both Harvard Law alums. Bill and Hill both went to Yale Law. That's all.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Barack and his wife are both Harvard Law alums. Bill and Hill both went to Yale Law. That's all.

aaah. I knew that about barak, but not about his wife, so I didn't put the pieces together.

gotcha.

[IMetTrentGreen]

Obama has been polling ~4% under his turnout so far, probably because those polling places only call established voters, not the young and apathetic that Obama is inspiring to get out.

At least I hope that's the case. He needs the undecideds tomorrow.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It would be cool if you post after you vote to let us know what went through your head and how you ended up finally making your decision.

I wish that my state voted tomorrow; it would be neat to have a voice during an election about which people are actually excited.

I decided on my drive home today (i) to vote and (ii) to vote for Obama. I am a registered Democrat, and California has a modified closed primary, meaning if you have registered with a party affiliation, you are locked into voting in that primary. I've been considering a general election vote for McCain, so I had been considering passing on the Super Tuesday primary.

Driving home, I was listening to an Obama speech from the Meadowlands rally along with clips from Shriver's speech yesterday. It motivated (moved is probably too strong a word) to want to vote, and it does come down to the whole "how listening to Obama makes me feel" kind of thing. Hillary, Obama and McCain are close enough together on my hot button issues that this "feel factor" is able to carry some weight for me. I also like the idea of not having a Bush or Clinton on the ticket. And I'm somewhat optimistic (though some may call it naive) that Obama could generally make a broad portion of the population like him.

So, call me an Obama girl (for tomorrow, anyway).

[Young Drachma]

[Arles]

Interesting that Hillary gets a spot on the Letterman show tonight. Nice bit of free advertising on the eve before super Tuesday. I'm sure CBS will even it out by having Obama on Monday, May 26. One day before the huge Idaho primary

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Arles

Interesting that Hillary gets a spot on the Letterman show tonight. Nice bit of free advertising on the eve before super Tuesday. I'm sure CBS will even it out by having Obama on Monday, May 26. One day before the huge Idaho primary

I thought there were some federal laws about this or did the Clintons file an exemption for this as well?

[ISiddiqui]

http://www.museum.tv/archives/etv/E/...qualtimeru.htm

Congress reacted quickly by creating four exemptions to the equal opportunity law. Stations who gave time to candidates on regularly scheduled newscasts, news interviews shows, documentaries (assuming the candidate wasn't the primary focus of the documentary), or on-the-spot news events would not have to offer equal time to other candidates for that office.

The FCC has also labeled shows such as The Phil Donahue Show and Good Morning America news interview programs.

[mrsimperless]

Does anyone know what Hillary's stance is on 1984? I've searched through her website but haven't been able to find anything. On Obama's site it is plain as day that he wants to completely get rid of Guantanamo, restore Habeus Corpus and will not tolerate torture of any kind. I could see Hillary getting into office and leaving things the way they are now. (or worse)

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Does anyone know what Hillary's stance is on 1984? I've searched through her website but haven't been able to find anything. On Obama's site it is plain as day that he wants to completely get rid of Guantanamo, restore Habeus Corpus and will not tolerate torture of any kind. I could see Hillary getting into office and leaving things the way they are now. (or worse)

She wants to close Guantanamo:

http://www.senate.gov/~clinton/news/....cfm?id=273211

As for torture, she is against it, but will make an exception for a "ticking time bomb" scenario (but has recently backed away from that a bit). She's also against rendition.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

You must not follow any of the head-to-head polls.

Not in February, no.

There's a slight chance for McCain if Hillary is the nominee; any other matchup will result in a huge Dem win.

[ISiddiqui]

As Bucc said, follow the head to head polls.

McCain knows how to play the game (look at how he ran Romney around ragged about the timetable issue). I fear Obama won't be able to keep up with the political tricks McCain has (who, btw, also has a tendancy to attract independants).

I think if McCain wins, it'll be close regardless of who the Dems put up. Hell, they could put up the clone of FDR and it'd be close. Romney would get run over by Michael Dukakis.

[albionmoonlight]

This seems to sew up what we know this election season:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/20...211/473/450068

Two polls of California done by two respected polling outfits. One shows a huge Obama win. One shows a huge Clinton win. Other than that, they agree completely.

*Note--reading Daily Kos can be harmful to your mental health. The fact that I was on there shows just how tooseriously I am taking these primaries. Please try not to hold it against me.

[ISiddiqui]

Two polls of California done by two respected polling outfits. One shows a huge Obama win. One shows a huge Clinton win. Other than that, they agree completely.

LOL. Well, I guess we'll just have to wait until they count the votes .

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Not in February, no.

There's a slight chance for McCain if Hillary is the nominee; any other matchup will result in a huge Dem win.

We heard this all in 2004. Dubya doesn't have a prayer.

For all the handwringing over McCain's leaning to the center, when election day comes in November, the conservative base will still vote for him. The conspiracy theories of mass defections at the party core when push comes to shove in the general election are highly exaggerated.

I think Obama will likely end up the Dem candidate. His performance when he has to start giving specific policies rather than the general political 'uniting' talk that he's used thus far will show whether he can win the election.

[chesapeake]

A little morning polling information, pulled from the National Journal:

The latest tracking polls from Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49-36% in CA, Obama-HRC 45-42% in MO, and HRC-Obama 46-41% in NJ among Dem LVs. Among GOP LVs, it's Mitt Romney-John McCain-Mike Huckabee 40-33-12% in CA, McCain-Huckabee-Romney 34-27-25% in MO, and McCain-Romney 53-24% in NJ.

[ISiddiqui]

Reuters/Zogby is so freaking wierd. Everyone else has slight lead for McCain in California, and Zogby has 7 point lead for Romney!

Who are they polling?!

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

We heard this all in 2004. Dubya doesn't have a prayer.

For all the handwringing over McCain's leaning to the center, when election day comes in November, the conservative base will still vote for him. The conspiracy theories of mass defections at the party core when push comes to shove in the general election are highly exaggerated.

I think Obama will likely end up the Dem candidate. His performance when he has to start giving specific policies rather than the general political 'uniting' talk that he's used thus far will show whether he can win the election.

The conservative base now only consists of the 25% who still give Bush a positive job approval.

In 2004 there were more people who voted in the republican primary than the democratic one. This year it's close to 2:1 Dem. Combine this with the high negatives for anyone with an 'R' next to their name and the fact that Republicans did not pick up a single seat in the mid term elections. In addition, the economy will probably be in the toilet by November. Bush had none of those factors against him, and there was NO ONE who said he "doesn't have a prayer," so drop that ridiculous strawman argument right now.

Now explain to me how McCain or any of the other Republican candidates are supposed to be competitive, much less win.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The conservative base now only consists of the 25% who still give Bush a positive job approval.

In 2004 there were more people who voted in the republican primary than the democratic one. This year it's close to 2:1 Dem. Combine this with the high negatives for anyone with an 'R' next to their name and the fact that Republicans did not pick up a single seat in the mid term elections. In addition, the economy will probably be in the toilet by November. Bush had none of those factors against him, and there was NO ONE who said he "doesn't have a prayer," so drop that ridiculous strawman argument right now.

Now explain to me how McCain or any of the other Republican candidates are supposed to be competitive, much less win.

1. The approval rating of Dubya has little to do with whether the Republican core voters will support the next Republican candidate.
2. Show me a correlation with turnout in primaries vs. turnout in the general election. It simply isn't there.
3. The economy is in its current state with a Republican president with low ratings and a Democratic Congress with even lower ratings. As Barack says, we did it together.
4. McCain is a much different candidate than Dubya. Whether he wins or not is up in the air, but it's certainly not a Democratic steamroll in the general election as you are trying to imply.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Now explain to me how McCain or any of the other Republican candidates are supposed to be competitive, much less win.

I strongly suggest you look at the head to head polling. Sure, if the candidate was Romney or Guiliani, you'd be right. Republican candidates would lose badly. But McCain is considerably different, with mass independant and liberal appeal, especially for his willingness to buck the party line and work with people like Sen. Clinton and Sen. Kennedy.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

1. The approval rating of Dubya has little to do with whether the Republican core voters will support the next Republican candidate.
2. Show me a correlation with turnout in primaries vs. turnout in the general election. It simply isn't there.
3. The economy is in its current state with a Republican president with low ratings and a Democratic Congress with even lower ratings. As Barack says, we did it together.
4. McCain is a much different candidate than Dubya. Whether he wins or not is up in the air, but it's certainly not a Democratic steamroll in the general election as you are trying to imply.

1. My point is that there aren't very many republican core voters left

2. "We find that voting in primaries has a positive and significant effect on voting in general elections and significantly increase the vote share of the party holding the primary, suggesting that the arguments that primaries by their existence decrease voter turnout and hurt parties holding them have no support." http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62407_index.html

3. "For the past several months, Congress' approval ratings have been as low as, and often lower than, George Bush's unprecedentedly low ratings. Various media pundits and right-wing advocates use this fact constantly to insinuate that Bush is not uniquely unpopular and Americans have not really turned against Republicans, but rather, there is just a generic dissatisfaction with our political institutions, or more misleadingly still, that Americans are actually angry at Congress for not "doing enough" (by which it is meant that they are excessively investigating and obstructing and not "cooperating" enough).
But the reason for these low approval ratings is as clear as it is meaningful -- the overall ratings for Congress are so low because Democrats disapprove of the Democratic Congress almost as much as Republicans do. There is nothing unusual about how Republicans or independents rate the Democratic Congress; the only aspect of any of this that is unusual is that Democrats rate the Congress so low even though it is controlled by their own party. Virtually every poll demonstrates this."
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwa...8/21/congress/

4. This is the same John McCain who wants to stay in Iraq for the next 100 years even though the majority of Americans think the war was a mistake and is currently bankrupting our country? Riiiiiiiiiiight.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I strongly suggest you look at the head to head polling. Sure, if the candidate was Romney or Guiliani, you'd be right. Republican candidates would lose badly. But McCain is considerably different, with mass independant and liberal appeal, especially for his willingness to buck the party line and work with people like Sen. Clinton and Sen. Kennedy.

The head to head polls are meaningless 9 months from election day. Hell, primary polling more than a week old is meaningless. The meta factors I list above are infinitely more important than a head to head poll of prospective nominees in February.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The head to head polls are meaningless 9 months from election day. Hell, primary polling more than a week old is meaningless. The meta factors I list above are infinitely more important than a head to head poll of prospective nominees in February.

That's kind of a ridiculous statement to make after making comments about a matchup and then saying things like any other Dem than Clinton will wipe up the floor with McCain.

Seems to me to be ignoring the facts to pump up your boy, Obama.

Of course things could happen to shift the public perception between now and then, but then you can't make blanket statements as to who will beat who in November, IMO.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

My point is that there aren't very many republican core voters left.

Yes, they've all just vacated the party.

[Fighter of Foo]

Well I gamble heavily on this stuff, so yeah I can.

Hillary has high negatives. She's a polarizing figure. What do you want me to tell you? If she didn't, she'd wipe the floor with any Republican too.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Yes, they've all just vacated the party.

There's a lot fewer of them now than 4 years ago. You can track the number by following Bush's approval rating. That equals the core republican base +/- a few percentage points.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Well I gamble heavily on this stuff, so yeah I can.

Hillary has high negatives. She's a polarizing figure. What do you want me to tell you? If she didn't, she'd wipe the floor with any Republican too.

I think this shows that you haven't really seen the appeal of McCain, every after his comments about Iraq. If its McCain as the nominee, NO Dem is wiping the floor with him.