POL: Midterm Results Thread

[larrymcg421]

Figured we shoudl start a thread for the election results.

So far, CNN has projected Bernie Sanders in VT and Richar dLugar in IN to win. Not a surprise.

More importantly, the Kentucky 3rd district is a possible pickup for Dems. Currently Yarmuth is leading Republican incumbent Northup 51-48 with 37% of precints in.

[larrymcg421]

Here are some early exit poll#'s


Dems up: VA 52-47
RI 53-46
PA 57-42
OH 57-43
NJ 52-45
MT 53-46
MO 50-48
MD 53-46



GOP up: TN 51-48
AZ 50-46

These are great for Dems, but exit polls have not been very accurate recently, so take this with a grain of salt.

[SirFozzie]

Larry, you may want to POL title the thread, but it's gonna be fun to watch.

[ISiddiqui]

In the exit polling, Pennsylvania, for one, is not a surprise. Virginia is. But who knows what the final numbers will actually show.

[Cringer]

I win everywhere!


Now bring me some hot interns.

[larrymcg421]

CNN projects Robert Byrd will win re-election and Ted Strickland will be the next Ohio governor. Again, not surprising.

There are three Indiana Republican incumbents and a Kentucky incumbent in dogfights right now

Indiana 2nd (26%) - (R) Chocola 41, (D) Donnelly 59
Indiana 8th (23%) - (R) Hostettler 34, (D) Ellsworth 66
Indiana 9th (22%) - (R) Sodrel 48, (D) Hill 48, (L) Schansberg 4
Kentucky 3rd (74%) - (R) Northup 48, (D) Yarmuth 51

*Updated with recent info and added KY-3

[larrymcg421]

With 15% reporting in VA, Allen is up on Webb 53-46

[Crapshoot]

KY-3 is a great bellwether - if the Dems pick that up, there's a sweep coming. If they fail to pick up any of the three Ky's, we might still end up with a GOP majority.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Sherrod Brown takes the Senate seat in Ohio..

[SirFozzie]

15 seconds after 8, they project the re-election of Ted Kennedy

[CraigSca]

And the "everyone else's congressman and senator stinks, but mine is awesome" voting continues...

[larrymcg421]

Webb 50, Allen 49 now with 27% in.

[larrymcg421]

Dems gets their first pickup. CNN has called the Indiana 8th for Ellsworth.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Here are some early exit poll#'s


Dems up: VA 52-47
RI 53-46
PA 57-42
OH 57-43
NJ 52-45
MT 53-46
MO 50-48
MD 53-46



GOP up: TN 51-48
AZ 50-46

These are great for Dems, but exit polls have not been very accurate recently, so take this with a grain of salt.

What are the source of these numbers? The consortium wouldn't publically release exit poll results in states where the polls haven't closed...

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

What are the source of these numbers? The consortium wouldn't publically release exit poll results in states where the polls haven't closed...

This came from National Review and New York Observer.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

This came from National Review and New York Observer.

Yes, they're leaked #s and are probably still incomplete...

It's not that exit polls are inaccurate, it's the early leaking of incomplete and unweighted numbers long before closing that is really at the heart of many of the credibility problems surrounding exit polling.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Down goes Santorum...

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by -Mojo Jojo-

Down goes Santorum...

You lose points for not phrasing that as "Santorum goes down..."

What a missed opportunity.

[SirFozzie]

After seeing Santorum's last commercial, looks like he's doing the J-O-B.

(wrestling reference if you don't get it, his last ad was held in a wrestling ring, with indy wrestlers fighting around him)

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Menendez over Kean in NJ.

[cartman]

Here's one I don't get:

hxxp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/H/16/index.html

Your candidate has already resigned from the House. He's under investigation by the House for lewd conduct with a minor. He's pretty much now persona non grata to his party. Yet he's still leading in the polls?

[digamma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Webb 50, Allen 49 now with 27% in.

Starting to look like Allen hangs on. Don't know where the rest of the votes are coming from, but it will be interesting to watch.

[st.cronin]

Have write-in votes been counted yet? Or do they get counted later? I know in my district they're expecting over 25% write in votes. Not that it would change anything in the big races (Udall, Bingaman, Richardson will all likely win).

[Galaxy]

Lieberman is said to have won the Connecticut seat.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

Starting to look like Allen hangs on. Don't know where the rest of the votes are coming from, but it will be interesting to watch.

Still some heavily populated counties to come, and most of them Webb is polling well, including Richmond City where he has a 16,000 vote edge so far.

[Tigercat]

Damn, at 71% in Virginia reporting, Webb has a 10(!!!) vote lead!

Webb 785,445 50%

Allen 785,435 49%

[larrymcg421]

Cardin holds off Steele. Dems have defended their vulnerable seats and picked off two GOP seats. Now it's MO, MT, RI TN, VA. If my calculations are correct, they need 4 of the 5 for a majority.

[Swaggs]

I think Rhode Island and Montana are going to be the late calls tonight.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Still some heavily populated counties to come, and most of them Webb is polling well, including Richmond City where he has a 16,000 vote edge so far.

Looking at Arlington and Fairfax alone it looks like +20k to Webb, but even still Allen is pretty close.

[Galaxy]

CNN is predicting the Dems got RI.

Just got a thought that it's quite sad that our country's election system is playing out like a heavyweight fight.

[larrymcg421]

RI has just been called for Whitehouse.

[kruseman]

Rhode Island has been projected Democrat by both CNN and Fox News.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's one I don't get:

hxxp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/H/16/index.html

Your candidate has already resigned from the House. He's under investigation by the House for lewd conduct with a minor. He's pretty much now persona non grata to his party. Yet he's still leading in the polls?

Is your disgraced candidate the same party as the governor? If so, even if he declines to take his seat, the Governor can still appoint somebody of the same party to take the vacated seat for his term.

If, on the other hand, you vote for one of the other candidates from a party you can't stomach, you don't get that option.

They may just be voting for "Any old Republican" over a specific name on the ballot.

[Swaggs]

Guess I spoke too soon.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Is your disgraced candidate the same party as the governor? If so, even if he declines to take his seat, the Governor can still appoint somebody of the same party to take the vacated seat for his term.

If, on the other hand, you vote for one of the other candidates from a party you can't stomach, you don't get that option.

They may just be voting for "Any old Republican" over a specific name on the ballot.

There is a Republican candidate named, I believe, Jim Negron who has been actively running as the Republican for that seat. But, since Foley won the primary, he appears on the ballot.

[kruseman]

Yep, Negron has been campaigning to vote for Foley, which would actually bring him(Negron) to office. It couldn't be changed, so they had to keep his name on there...They aren't just voting for some guy - they know they are voting for Negron.

[cartman]

Ok, I wasn't sure how it worked in Florida. I was amazed when I first saw those results and Foley getting so many votes.

[larrymcg421]

Unfortunately, I think Webb is done. He's down by 25,000 now and even with Richmond City left, I don't think he can overcome the deficit.

[wade moore]

Any data on the amendments? I'm interested in the "marriage" amendment in VA.

[Swaggs]

I'm guessing that the dems take Virginia, Montana, and Missouri and the repubs hold onto Tennessee and Dick Cheney will no longer be hiding in undisclosed locations, but rather will be presiding over the Senate.

Any historians have any idea when the last time the Senate was split down the middle? Was it 50/50 when Jeffords left the republican party a few years ago?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

There is a Republican candidate named, I believe, Jim Negron who has been actively running as the Republican for that seat. But, since Foley won the primary, he appears on the ballot.

There you are, then.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Any data on the amendments? I'm interested in the "marriage" amendment in VA.

I believe they projected that early on, but not positive. I think the voters chose to identify marriage as between a man and a woman.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I believe they projected that early on, but not positive. I think the voters chose to identify marriage as between a man and a woman.

Figured.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm guessing that the dems take Virginia, Montana, and Missouri and the repubs hold onto Tennessee and Dick Cheney will no longer be hiding in undisclosed locations, but rather will be presiding over the Senate.

Any historians have any idea when the last time the Senate was split down the middle? Was it 50/50 when Jeffords left the republican party a few years ago?

Um. I think it went from 50-50 to 49-50-1, but I wouldn't swear to that. Other alternative is 51-49 to 50-49-1.

[Galaxy]

Kind of skipping ahead,
What exactly happens if the Democrats do win one, or both, houses of congress? How will this change things with Bush and our national issues?

[Galaxy]

Dola,
How is nutty Katherine Harris doing?

[larrymcg421]

Democrats have picked up KY-3 and IN-2.

Right now the GOP is making a strong challenge to two Dem incumbents in GA-8 and GA-12. They're both essentially tied with half the precints reporting.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Triple Dola,
How is nutty Katherine Harris doing?

Not well.

They called Florida for Bill Nelson early on.

Not a big surprise, but probably a pretty big missed opportunity for the repubs, as their candidate for governor cruised.

[Swaggs]

Here is a site that keeps all the races in question updated pretty well: hxxp://www.tpmcafe.com/race/overview

The site has a very liberal political lean, so if that offends you, you may want to avoid it.

[larrymcg421]

TN results don't look promising for Ford. I think the Senate will end up 51-49 or 52-48 for the Republicans.