Hanna questions...

[Ben E Lou]

First-time hurricane boy here. Right now the NWS's best guess in the cone of uncertainty has it hitting land somewhere in the Lowcountry between Beaufort and Charleston:



For those who have been through these suckers, what should one expect? A few specific data points/questions:

• We live 15-20 miles from the coastline as the crow flies. (Latest look at Hanna has hurricane force winds extended 35 miles from center, so a direct or near-direct hit definitely puts us in that range at least for a while.)
• According to the models published in the newspapers here, our neighborhood would not be threatened by flooding in any hurricane that's below a Category 5.
• Most of our neighborhood is less than 3 years old and the area was essentially clear-cut in building it. The nearest trees of any significant size are roughly a quarter mile away from our house. Folks in the neighborhood have already started taking precautions with regard to getting stuff out of the yards that could get blown around. Is there any reason to board up the windows for what seems likely to be a Cat2 storm?
• I guess what appears to be the worst-case scenario here is that it grows to a Cat3 and makes landfall just southwest of Charleston moving directly toward our suburb. In that scenario, what's a reasonable expectation for how long we would be without power? A few days? 7-10 days? 2 weeks or more?
• My wife and I both have jobs that afford the opportunity to work from pretty much anywhere with access to the interweb tubes. Her parents have a place in the NC mountains that's going to be empty this week/weekend. We've considered just heading up there tonight or tomorrow to avoid the traffic nightmare of an evacuation. (My brother-in-law spent like 8 hours in the car driving to Columbia--which is only 100ish miles away--evacuating for a Hurricane that missed when he lived here.) Is the best bet here to just get everything up that could possibly blow away, then get the heck out of Dodge? I'd hate to go through all that effort, leave, and then have the dadgum thing turn and hit the Outer Banks or something. (A big reason that we wouldn't go is that our next-door neighbors and good friends are at the hospital right now having a C-section. They might need our help.)

Thanks in advance.

[knolysis]

I'll offer up the following advice:

1) As close as you are to the coast, I would prepare for a pretty rough ride if you stay. Personally, I wouldn't stay. If the hurricane maintains strength as it hits land, you will see hurricane strength winds. You can ride it out but you might regret it later.

2) I've seen all kinds of places flood that the models say won't. Don't trust them. It pretty much depends on how fast the storm moves over you. If it moves slow, you will get massive flooding. If it moves pretty quick you'll probably be fine. I'm not sure what the soil is like in the low country. If it is more sandy or if your house is higher than your neighbors you should be fine. If the soil is more clay/muck or your house is lower than your neighbors, you could have some problems.

3) I would try to get anything out of the yard that could blow around. Sounds like trees won't be a problem so you really only need to contend with other debris (such as street signs or parts off of houses/buildings). It certainly wouldn't hurt to board up windows but I have seen plenty of houses right on the beach survive with windows intact as long as there is no debris flying about. I probably wouldn't bother with boarding up much (maybe a large/irregular/custom-sized window as those may take longer to replace if broken).

4) As for being out of power, depends on how close you are to the substation. The closer you are, the quicker your power gets restored. Utilities start at the substation and work out from it to restore power. There were pockets in Florida that were 2 weeks without power but I would say that 80% have power within 3 days (from Cat 2-3 storms) and 98% within a week. Cat 1 or less storms don't typically cause power outages that last more than 48 hours.

Personally, I would square everything away at the house, cut power to everything but the fridge/freezer, lock it up and then head out of town before the crush. I wouldn't try to ride out a Cat 2 or higher hurricane as close as you are (I have been through several Tropical Storms and 1 Cat 1 - I wouldn't stay for anything more). You would survive but it still wouldn't be fun. Everybody feels dumb when they evacuate and then the Hurricane suddenly loses strength or shifts direction. Remember - you are better safe than sorry. And if you do leave, don't rush right back into town after the storm passes. Give emergency crews time to get out and start to work. They don't need you on the road causing problems.

If you do decide to stay make sure you have about 10 gallons of drinking water stored for you and your wife. That should get you through 4-5 days without question. Fill up bathtubs with water for use in non-potable situations (to flush a toilet, etc.). Get any food that you need to keep cool into coolers so you aren't going in and out of the fridge/freezer. Once you lose power, you don't want to open those suckers up. The freezer will keep food well over a day without power if you don't open it. Get candles, flashlights, food you don't have to cook (or get a camping stove with a big propane bottle). Get cards, books, something you can use as a fan. If you think it is hot and humid now, wait until the hurricane moves through and you don't have A/C. You will be very hot, bored and cranky.

[wade moore]

Having endured a rough time in Isabelle which hit where I am (about 50-60 miles inland) as a Tropical Storm - get up and out.

You guys have no reason to ride this out in your house with your jobs and a convenient place to go and stay. As was said above, even if you can stay "safe" - it's just not pleasent. If you had a compelling reason to stay (job, no place to go, etc) it would be different.

[gstelmack]

On the power question, listen to knolysis. It depends greatly on the power infrastructure in your area. I live in an area with underground lines and near the major distribution lines, so when Fran came through we had an intersection near us keep power, and we got it back within 24 hours. When we had a big ice storm 5 or 6 years ago, we were also back within 24 hours. In both cases there were folks within 30 miles or so who had to wait well over a week and on towards 2 weeks to get power back.

[Draft Dodger]

well, the spelling's a little off, but if the storm is anything like my daughter, you should run. now.

[albionmoonlight]

Expect stuff in the freezer/fridge to spoil. Better to grill out those steaks and fillets now (or take them with you in a cooler) than to lose them to a power outage.

Of course, unplug everything that you can. If you have neighbors staying, then you can ask them to keep an eye on your house vis a vis looters.

And, because plywood is cheap and boarding windows is easy, I say board up everything (it isn't so much the window breaking that can be expensive, it is all the rain that comes in once it does.

Because you have a place to go, I say go and beat the traffic. Though no one really knows with these things.

[Tasan]

Yeah, living in Houston we've been through this a couple of times. After the whole Rita scare, we decided to just sit things out the next time there's trouble, but we are about 10 more miles inland than you are. If you really want to go, pack up all the stuff you really want to eat from the freezer into a cooler and take it with you, and get out as soon as you can. If you wait til tomorrow to leave, you'll probably have a ton of traffic to deal with, and Thursday will be a nightmare. Trust me, I sat in 12 hours of traffic to go a normal 4 hour trip because we waited just a touch too long. If you want to leave, leave NOW.

Oh and even though Rita didn't really hit us square on around here, our area was without power for about a day. A direct hit probably would have kept us down a couple more days, but our power grid is kinda flakey around here.

[Senator]

SD, not to threadjack, but I didn't know you were there. I was just in Hilton Head a couple of weeks ago.

[SFL Cat]

You'll get a lot of rain, some tropical force winds, with a few gusts in hurricane range. I'd definitely tape your windows, stock up on batteries, and drinking water. If you have a generator, you're ahead of the game. If you have any large trees near your house, I'd trim them back a little, because a lot of limbs (not to mention whole trees in some cases) will likely be coming down during the mess.

Make sure all lose items in your yard are put away...that way they don't get picked up by the wind and fired through one of your windows.

On average our power is down anywhere from 3 days to up to two weeks...just depends on how efficient your power company is and how prepared they are to deal with the after effects of a hurricane. I'm actually thinking this sucker breaks west and hits somewhere along the Florida coast before it reaches you. But you never really know with these things.

[Cringer]

Just went through Dolly (Cat. 2) here. I am 60 miles inland and still had trees blow down all over the neighborhood. No massive flooding, but still had plenty of water build up and a couple houses down the road had some water go inside. You sound ok in the tree area and flooding area though. Like others said, things can still fly through the air, take precautions there if possible.

Most important thing is power and water IMO. We lucked out and were only without for 24 hours, other areas around here were without for a week or so. The water was never a problem at our house, though some neighbors reported backflow problems and the city didn't want people drinking tap water for a couple days. So have water before hand. Good luck.

[Thomkal]

Hey Ben,

watching anxiously here in Myrtle Beach too. Having lived here for 10 years now, I would tell you not to trust the models too much right now. I have experienced so many of these storms that have been predicted to go right over us three-four days before with lots of wind and rain damage only to see it give us a glancing blow with little wind or rain damage. As much as the scientists like to think they have a handle on them, these storms are very unpredictable.

Having said that there's no reason to stay and pray the models are wrong. Especially if you haven't been through one before. Yeah its a hassle to pack everything up and all that and get out of town. But you know I'll take the hassle over the uncertainty and fear of what exactly a hurricane will do to your house and god forbid to you should it damage your house. So go enjoy a nice time with your wife in the NC mountains. It's nice that you want to be there for your neighbors, but the hospital will be one of the safest places they can be during a hurricane and they will be well taken care of there. Help get their house and yard ready for the storm, but don't stay because of them.

We have special hurricane shutters for our house here which are a bitch to put up, but again I'd rather be safe than sorry if 100 mph winds are trying to rip my house apart. I'd definitely board up your windows if you have the time and money to do it. You might clean your gutters out too if they haven't been done recently.

Take important papers with you, and consider taking things like family history documents and valuables if you can't stand the thought of losing it. Make sure you have keys to all doors and any vehicles you leave behind. Have some documents with you clearly showing your address/name in case there's a problem getting back in after the storm. Make sure you have money, never know what access to ATM's/banks you might have.

Having said all that I'm not sure if/when we will evacuate here-the models seem to have going over the middle of the state right now, so going to Columbia might not be the wisest idea for us. The worse part is that Ike could be coming in right behind this one.

[CraigSca]

Not to be a jerk here, but hasn't the taping of windows been found to be a myth?

[gstelmack]

Here you go Craig: http://www.snopes.com/science/hurricane.asp

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Senator

SD, not to threadjack, but I didn't know you were there. I was just in Hilton Head a couple of weeks ago.

I was in Hilton Head about 2 weeks ago myself. Got some of the rain from Fay. That was oodles of fun.

[JediKooter]

I would say not only do you have to worry about what everyone else mentioned, but then there are the tornadoes that are spawned by the hurricanes/tropical storms winds.

Get all of your pictures and other sentimental items that you can in one easy to get to spot now, so you can just up and leave if you have to and not worry about searching for them.

Your food in your fridge will rot or be rotting by the time you get back, even if gone for a few hours. So, eat it or cook it or bring it with you if you can. Get ice, water, batteries, medical supplies (band aids, anti septics, etc...) now. Don't wait, or they will all be gone more than likely.

If you have pets, make sure you have a plan for them as well.

Gas up all the cars or if you can gas up the vehicle that you will be evacuating in now and don't drive it. The last thing you want to be stuck in is a line to get gas when you just want to get out of there.

[-apoc-]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Not to be a jerk here, but hasn't the taping of windows been found to be a myth?

It doesnt help stop the window from breaking but if the window does break it is to prevent glass from flying all over the house and potentialy cutting someone.

[-apoc-]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Is there any reason to board up the windows for what seems likely to be a Cat2 storm?

Cat 2 is borderline bording up. In your situation I would only worry about south facing windows if it comes in just west of you. Otherwise I think you should be ok without it.

I guess what appears to be the worst-case scenario here is that it grows to a Cat3 and makes landfall just southwest of Charleston moving directly toward our suburb. In that scenario, what's a reasonable expectation for how long we would be without power? A few days? 7-10 days? 2 weeks or more?

Very tough to call I have been through a Cat 2 without losing power but also through a Cat 2 where we lost power for 10 days (granted that was in CT 22 years ago and I dont think they were prepared for that) I would be prepared for at least a week with no power.

My wife and I both have jobs that afford the opportunity to work from pretty much anywhere with access to the interweb tubes. Her parents have a place in the NC mountains that's going to be empty this week/weekend. We've considered just heading up there tonight or tomorrow to avoid the traffic nightmare of an evacuation. (My brother-in-law spent like 8 hours in the car driving to Columbia--which is only 100ish miles away--evacuating for a Hurricane that missed when he lived here.) Is the best bet here to just get everything up that could possibly blow away, then get the heck out of Dodge? I'd hate to go through all that effort, leave, and then have the dadgum thing turn and hit the Outer Banks or something. (A big reason that we wouldn't go is that our next-door neighbors and good friends are at the hospital right now having a C-section. They might need our help.)
Thanks in advance.

I absolutly would not be heading into the mountians. That is the worst place to be as far as I am concerned due to the massive potential for flash flooding and landslides. The mountians force the winds up and the updrafts drop tons of rain on the mountians during tropical events.

I have been through a ton of these things all within 50 miles of the coast and now within 500 feet of the coast for Fay 2 weeks ago when we got 22 inches of rain here. This is going to be a fast moving moderate hurricane in your area so flooding will not be a concern and you arent on the coast so thre wont be any storm surge. It will primarily be a wind event for you but it will also be over very quickly (2 hours for the worst of it at most). Assuming you have a room that has no windows such as an interior bathroom or a large walkin closet I would probably just ride it out if I were you but then again I kinda get a kick out of these things cause we went kayaking down the street here during Fay.

[CU Tiger]

Ben I lived just South of Columbia when Hugo came through.

We were without power for 29 days.

No one is predicting Hugo like effects on this one, but just something to keep in mind.

If I had a place to go, Id get out of town.
One "trick" if you are planning to stay in the mountains, make sure you have an answering machine that is externally powered. If you call and get no answer power is still off.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Having endured a rough time in Isabelle which hit where I am (about 50-60 miles inland) as a Tropical Storm - get up and out.

You guys have no reason to ride this out in your house with your jobs and a convenient place to go and stay. As was said above, even if you can stay "safe" - it's just not pleasent. If you had a compelling reason to stay (job, no place to go, etc) it would be different.

Dude, Isabelle sucked dick. I should share my story sometime about how I was in significant peril during that one. Maybe some time.

[Thomkal]

Looks like the latest track has the speed down a bit to about 85 mph when it reaches here and I think the track was moved up a bit.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Senator

SD, not to threadjack, but I didn't know you were there. I was just in Hilton Head a couple of weeks ago.

We moved to the Charleston area a little over two years ago. I'm still a Georgia boy at my core, but I have definitely taken a liking to the Lowcountry.

All, thanks for the insight. I'll take it into account.

[Wolfpack]

11 AM advisory continues to improve things for the Carolinas (but not so good for New England). The forecasters are still expecting a minimal hurricane at landfall, but the landfall point keeps moving further and further north, now somewhere between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach. However, the storm is still expected to be moving pretty rapidly, so flooding should be minimal. What's more, the projected track is drifting further to the east. I was getting a little antsy yesterday because the track was drawn right through the Triangle and we're in a house on a pretty wooded lot. All the rain from Fay has softened the ground a bit, so a strong windstorm would make it easier for trees to be toppled. At any rate, the track is now a little east of the I-95 corridor, meaning the coastal counties will get some pounding, but the Triangle will be on the weaker side of the storm, though I would suppose we'll still get sustained winds around 30+ mph for some period of time on Saturday. I'd go so far as to say that as they've been adjusting the track more and more east with time with the storm, it's becoming possible that the storm could swing sharp enough to miss the coast altogether, perhaps clipping the Outer Banks. However, such a track means it's more likely the storm will run up and hit Long Island or Cape Cod with a lot more oomph than it would otherwise have done.

But, there's still a couple of more storms on the conveyor belt. I'm not too concerned about Josephine, which looks like it'll be a fish storm, but Ike's another matter. If the forecast for Ike holds, I'm thinking this one's going to be in the Gulf by early next week, possibly a landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf coast after that.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

but Ike's another matter. If the forecast for Ike holds, I'm thinking this one's going to be in the Gulf by early next week, possibly a landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf coast after that.

You clearly know your stuff. I am curious, what are you using to predict Ike's eventual landfall? All of the stuff that I can find only goes five days out for a forecast.

Is it gut instinct, or do you have a system that you use, or is it a bit of both?

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

You clearly know your stuff. I am curious, what are you using to predict Ike's eventual landfall? All of the stuff that I can find only goes five days out for a forecast.

Is it gut instinct, or do you have a system that you use, or is it a bit of both?

Having grown up here and tracked many different storms over all that time, hurricanes are something of great interest to me. I even did a science fair project back in elementary school on them, complete with a cotton ball model of a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, modeled roughly on Hurricane Gilbert.

As for predicting, it's all educated guessing based on prior experience. Truly, that's what NHC types would tell you, as well, since hurricanes are very hard to predict even with dedicated computers that do nothing but think about storm systems and their interactions. NHC forecasters will look at a bunch of models and most of the time, the forecast they provide will be some average of those models and their own intuition. (Note: I'm not a meteorologist by trade, but sometimes do wonder whether I should have gone that route in college instead of as a computer programmer. Weather in general has always fascinated me.)

To show I'm quite fallable and have no system other than instinct, my prior guess on Ike I think may not pan out. It now looks like NHC is forecasting the storm may make a turn before reaching Florida, which is something new in their forecasts as they had originally drawn a fairly westerly course over the last several forecasts, but now seem to be introducing a bit of a "buck" in the track as they now think Ike will deviate a little south of west into the Bahamas before starting to swing northwestward and if the extrapolated track holds, it could be the east coast of Florida that gets hit rather than the west coast or panhandle. However, forecasters in their discussion say they aren't totally sure how quickly that turn will occur.

This is normal, of course. A storm like Gustav that was practically obedient to forecasted atmospheric conditions and maintained a bulls-eye on Louisiana from the moment it emerged from Haiti is incredibly rare. I've never really seen NHC nail a forecast like that so far in advance before. Usually, you'll see the track start in one place, then as time passes drifts one way as their models forecast various atmospheric conditions, but then push it back the other way as the storm either dallies in an area or suddenly races ahead, throwing all their timetables out the window. Take Hanna, for instance. As it wandered around in the Bahamas the last several days, the storm track started out with a straight line to Savannah, then gradually introduced a curve that took it into Charleston and on up into the Appalachians, and now the curve is offshore and landfall is projected between Wilmington and Morehead City as the storm races up the eastern seaboard into Newfoundland in five days.

As I said, in the end it's just guessing. The only time I know I made an initial guess that turned out correct was with Rita when I guessed correctly that it would come ashore at the Texas/Louisiana border while it was still quite far out from shore (I even think I made a post with the guess in it somewhere in the Rita thread at the time, though I probably amended my thinking as the NHC amended theirs).

[FBPro]

Currently vacationing in HHI, South Carolina hoping that they don't issue the evac order....

[Easy Mac]

I've was in a category 1 when I lived in Charleston, it hit just slightly to the north. It was really nothing to worry about.

Where you are, you'll get some rain and wind, but nothing that should be any problems. I lived literally 200 feet from the water and absolutely nothing bad happened, outside of the normal downtown flooding that occurs any time it rains .00000001 inch.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Draft Dodger

well, the spelling's a little off, but if the storm is anything like my daughter, you should run. now.

Brilliant

SI

[sterlingice]

Oh sure, I move to Virginia and what do I get the first week? Rain from a hurricane. Feels like Houston all over again

SI

[B & B]

FBPro, you still down here?

[SFL Cat]

We're getting a lot of rain and wind from Hannah this morning.

Storm I'm watching is Ike. Right now the track is heading straight for us. Looks like a bear too....could hit as a CAT 3 or 4.

[cartman]

If you do board up your windows, remember that the plywood goes on the outside.

snopes.com: Aggie Hurricane Preparedness

[NoMyths]

Just purchased a house a little further inland from where we were staying before (and actually, Ben, we may just be down the road from you now). Of course there'd be a hurricane coming into town right after we closed. Pretty much all of the schools and governmental offices are closed, but it sounds like it may not be so bad in Charleston County -- Georgetown may get hit pretty hard, though.

Two of our walls are almost nothing but windows, though, so I'm hoping we don't get anything too fierce.

[Thomkal]

Yep NoMyths looking like it may come in just below/over us/to the side of us here in Myrtle Beach and might strengthen into a hurricane again before it gets here. Happy Happy Joy Joy

[Ben E Lou]

My office just announced a 1pm closing today.

[Butter]

Are they still planning on having the WVU-ECU game tomorrow?

[Wolfpack]

Hanna's definitely been wobbling a bit more to the west than they expected. After moving the track until it almost missed the Outer Banks, they've started dragging it back inland and now we're probably going to get a good period of tropical storm-force conditions in the morning in the Triangle. While Hanna isn't particularly strong, the speed they're forecasting means it likely will not be as diminished after landfall before coming near here. Fortunately, it looks like we're still on the west side of the storm's track for now, so that means the winds and rain won't be as bad as they could be. Will be an interesting morning, though.

Like SFL, I'm also keeping a bit of an eye on Ike. If Ike manages to swing fast enough and miss Florida, it could follow in Hanna's wake and, having lived through Fran in this area back in '96, two tropical storms in short order mean a freightload of downed trees. Even if it hits FLA and then rolls up the coast, a third dousing of rain from tropical systems in this area in a month will likely increase flood risks. At least we're up on a hill in our neighborhood, so that risk won't be as bad for us, but there are places in Raleigh that inundate pretty easily in a strong storm.

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Are they still planning on having the WVU-ECU game tomorrow?

I haven't seen any announcement yet, but given the current track, I'd be somewhat surprised if they play tomorrow. The kick time is 4:30 and that's going to be roughly about the time the storm is expected to move through the area.

Edit: they may play anyway, perhaps delay kickoff or something. Reading the local news, it looks like it would be very difficult to re-schedule the game because there are no bye weeks that the two teams share this year where they could reschedule the game to.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

My office just announced a 1pm closing today.

hopefully just a precaution but be safe.

[Thomkal]

And we have our first bit of rain from the storm here now.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And we have our first bit of rain from the storm here now.

Same here.

[Butter]

I hope everything goes ok for you guys down there.

[Wolfpack]

We just had a brief shower roll through here in the last few minutes, but the first main rainband is still to the southeast of Raleigh. That should be here in the next hour or so. Won't have much wind with it this far from the center, but the weather will pretty much be downhill from here until tomorrow afternoon.

[Wolfpack]

Dola...yes it's a bit unusual to be getting a rainband at the same time as the folks much closer to the storm down in South Carolina, but if you look at a satellite image of the storm, there's a pretty long tail that's being "whipped" out by Hanna along the northern side of the storm and that's what's coming in here now.

[claphamsa]

Wow, still sunny here

[King of New York]

The clouds rolled into southeastern Virginia about an hour ago. I have a bad feeling about Hanna and Ike.

Best of luck to you folks down in the Carolinas.

[sterlingice]

We're getting clouds here in Richmond as of a couple of hours ago. Fluffy whites right now, tho. And some really high clouds.

SI

[GoldenEagle]

Going through a hurricane was one of the coolest experiences of my life. My family and I were vacationing in Panama City Beach in 1995 when Hurricane Erin took a turn for us. It made landfall as a weak Cat 2. We were in a hotel that was on the beach. The power went out but the sliding glass doors looking out into the ocean held. The ocean had come all the way up to sea wall. There was no visible beach.

[gstelmack]

Looks like the 2PM updates on the computer models are a bit east of what they were at 8AM, which bodes well for us here in the Triangle.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Looks like the 2PM updates on the computer models are a bit east of what they were at 8AM, which bodes well for us here in the Triangle.

They are. The news reported here that the flyover revealed that the storm's center was a good 60 miles east of where they thought it was on the earlier updates from today. Oopsie, and very good for the Lowcountry.

[Eaglesfan27]

As far as power outages, I've learned it depends very much upon the surrounding area's power structure as well. Our neighborhood is new and all of the lines are underground, but most of Louisiana has overhead lines and those lines being knocked out are what caused our neighborhood and other neighborhoods like it so many problems for the last few days.