Hurricane Gustav

[Eaglesfan27]

It's still about a week away from hitting anywhere in the USA, but Governor Jindal just had an extensive news conference detailing Louisiana's plans including possibly calling for evacuations as early as Friday. Right now, LA is in the middle of the cone of probability for the projected tracks which are estimating it will be a category 3 or stronger. My in-laws are already freaking out and planning evacations (including coming to our place in Baton Rouge area which is at least higher elevation.) Just a heads up for anyone who may be unaware of Gustav like I was until my in-laws called.

[Cringer]

Gulf hurricanes are all the rage this year it seems. Good luck, looks like it won't be heading this way which is good, I don't need a 3 since a borderline 1-2 was interesting enough....

[flounder]

Preparing for a disaster before it strikes? Isn't that kind of un-American?

[Doug5984]

Been watching this one VERY closely starting today.

My uneducated projection is it is going to make landfall slightly east of Lake Charles, between Lafayette & Lake Charles- and that wouldn't be good for us here.

Was planning on spending the weekend in New Orleans & some places slightly southwest of Nola.... Might be changing those plans...

[Doug5984]

Just to add- the latest from Wunderground has it being a 3 as soon as it breaks away from Cuba, then going through the really hot water in the Gulf. Might not be fun for us here in south west louisiana next week... But I'll be praying for the best.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by flounder

Preparing for a disaster before it strikes? Isn't that kind of un-American?

Maybe, but what do you think would happen to Jindal's VP prospects if there was a repeat of Katrina on his watch?

[albionmoonlight]

Well, it kind of makes it hard for Jindal to be VP because of the timing. He can't go to the convention to make a speech if a hurricane is hitting his state. Too Bush-like for sure.

But, to get away from politics, I really hope that Gustav stays away.

[Huckleberry]

You guys should have seen the mass exodus from the Houston area for Rita in 2005 right after Katrina.

Now we have contraflow evacuation routes all set up and everything.

[tarcone]

Our midwestern weather guy predicts it to be a category 4. Scary stuff.

[SFL Cat]

After getting side-swiped by Fran, I'm glad Gustav appears to be heading elsewhere. After riding out Wilma, if anything stronger than a 2 comes through, I'm closing the shutters and getting the hell out of Dodge.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Well, it kind of makes it hard for Jindal to be VP because of the timing. He can't go to the convention to make a speech if a hurricane is hitting his state. Too Bush-like for sure.

But, to get away from politics, I really hope that Gustav stays away.

He already said in the speech tonight that he will not attend the convention if the hurricane is heading this way. Bad timing for his political aspirations for sure.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM advisory has been posted to the NHC website. Gustav has been downgraded to a TS for now, but is expected to regain its strength relatively quickly in the next couple of days and be a Cat 3 by Sunday night.

As for how this will impact the Gulf states, it depends on basically how strong the high the forecasters are talking about that's currently over Florida is. If it weakens or pulls to the east, then the storm track will start pulling eastward as well. Right now, if that arc in the forecast track holds, it looks like a south-central to southeast Louisiana landfall. If the ridge moves out or weakens, then this could track towards Biloxi or Mobile. It's also possible the ridge doesn't move or weaken and the storm could landfall in west Louisiana or Texas. Based on the 11 PM advisory, however, the last scenario doesn't seem likely as the forecasters mention that a trough is digging into the western Gulf which will more likely block the storm from going further to the west.

Unfortunately, this trough may help to strengthen Gustav as the five-day forecast puts Gustav roughly over the loop current, which is usually the hottest part of the Gulf, by Sunday night. The forecasters believe the trough may eventually slow up Gustav by Sunday, which will give it more time to be exposed to this warm water. Still, this is a long way away in hurricane forecasting time. A lot can happen between now and Sunday or Monday (which is probably when landfall will occur).

Is New Orleans in trouble? No, not yet. There's just too much uncertainty this far out. However, the track being suggested is going to put landfall awfully close to there on Monday.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

New Orleans could end up being a ghost town if they get flooded out again.

[Wolfpack]

I'm finally getting a chance to read the 11 AM discussion and at least there is some good news on the extended forecast at the moment. The global models the forecasters are using are thinking there might be some shear developing over the Gulf in a few days which will inhibit strengthening on Gustav's part, so they've dialed back the intensity forecast to Cat 2 levels for now. However, they do caution that forecasting intensity this far in advance is tough to do and their probabilities have Gustav being anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 by Monday morning.

They're also now beginning to pull the forecast track a little more to the right as the models are showing the high near Florida beginning to weaken in a few days. If the arc they've got in the current map holds, however, then New Orleans is currently facing some trouble. The track looks like it'll bring the storm ashore somewhere along the Mississippi coast. Obviously, the further west on the coast, the more New Orleans will be impacted.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM advisory and discussion are out. The good news is that trends continue to move the forecasted strength downward. Current forecasted strength by Monday night as landfall approaches is a border Cat 1/2.

The bad news, however, is that the models have tugged the forecast path a little bit back to the west, which means the path is now lining up for a landfall roughly around the mouth of the Mississippi or just slightly to the west, which means a track that will go very close to, if not over, New Orleans sometime Monday night into very early Tuesday morning. Even though there is uncertainty this far out from landfall, the tracks have been generally consistent for the past 24 hours or so pointing to a landfall along the Louisiana/Mississippi coast.

[Eaglesfan27]

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

[SFL Cat]

Last track I looked at called for a Cat-2 with the center path of the cone of death hitting at the Mississippi-Louisiana border. For now, only the western portion of Florida's panhandle remains in the cone.

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

There is always that concern. In addition to a trough that's expected in the Gulf, they're now bringing up a potential blocking high pressure system as a possibility at the tail end of the forecast, similar to what happened with Fay, which caused that storm to just kind of grind its way across central Florida and then bounced it due west once it move out to sea again. However, it's been my experience that stationary or fairly slow storms don't really ratchet up their intensity a lot because part of their energy depends on warm water at the surface. If a storm lies in one place too long then the upwelling of colder water from deeper in the sea will eventually mix up the water sufficiently that it won't have as much heat to draw from the ocean. In addition, a slow-moving system will experience other influences against strength building and maintenance, such as eyewall replacement cycles (if the storm is strong enough to have need of them) and eventually some sort of atmospheric condition (dry air being sucked into the storm, shear, etc) that will disrupt the storm's intensity in some way (not so much that the slow speed itself causes these conditions to happen, but just the simple odds that a storm as it exists over time will eventually get subjected to such negative conditions).

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Last track I looked at called for a Cat-2 with the center path of the cone of death hitting at the Mississippi-Louisiana border. For now, only the western portion of Florida's panhandle remains in the cone.

I think that was the plot with the 5 PM advisory. The NHC site has a track that puts it just south of the Mississippi River mouth at 8 PM Monday with the error cone ranging from the western Gulf to western Florida.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

I haven't been keeping up with the rebuilding of New Orleans, but would the city be able to withstand even a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane yet? Have the levis been rebuilt completely?

[Eaglesfan27]

In theory, the levis have been repaired enough to withstand a Cat 2 or 3. However, there is a great deal of skepticism in the city/surrounding area that they actually will hold since they haven't been tested by an actual storm to this point.

It looks like if the models continue to project a SE Louisiana landfall, about 15 friends and relatives will be evacuating to my house. Several of them will be bringing pets with them. I was looking forward to a nice quiet holiday weeked, but we are the safest place nearby for all of our friends and family to go. My mother-in-law has already started making plans to come here Friday night after work.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

Dolly stalled off our coast, literally right off our coast, until it was just into Cat. 2 status. I have finally learned first hand that is why these things suck, you don't know what the hell they will do really.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

It looks like if the models continue to project a SE Louisiana landfall, about 15 friends and relatives will be evacuating to my house. Several of them will be bringing pets with them. I was looking forward to a nice quiet holiday weeked, but we are the safest place nearby for all of our friends and family to go. My mother-in-law has already started making plans to come here Friday night after work.

LOL......you're a good man. Nothing like a bunch of family staying at your house all at once. Time to set up some video game tournaments or a Wii bowling league!

[molson]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

LOL......you're a good man. Nothing like a bunch of family staying at your house all at once. Time to set up some video game tournaments or a Wii bowling league!

Ya, that made me laugh. If I was Eaglesfan27's cousin I'd be over there at the first sign of rain, even if I lived north of him.

Eaglesfan27: I don't know molson, things look pretty clear
Molson: No man, things could get ugly, I better hunker down here for a while.

[Buccaneer]

Been following the news/weather everyday about Gustav. I came across this regarding one person's experience with Katrina

They were displaced for eight months, most of which they spent at Matherne's sister's home, also in Metairie. Katrina didn't seem threatening when it came through the Gulf so they waited until the last minute to leave, grabbing what belongings they could on their way out the door.

Ummm...fail?

Anyway, be safe and keep a weather eye out.

[Eaglesfan27]

To be fair to that person, the track didn't shift to New Orleans until Friday afternoon. Before that, all predictions were for a Florida/Alabama landfall. I remember watching the track shift that Friday afternoon and warning my co-workers to keep an eye on it before leaving work.

[LloydLungs]

Yep, I remember not having a CLUE we were about to get clobbered until I stopped work on Friday evening. As far as I knew it was a weak Florida event and I was barely aware of its existence. I don't blame anyone for getting caught by surprise by Katrina. This one, on the other hand... we've been in the crosshairs since Monday and the bastard is still five days from landfall.

I'm thinking it would have to be almost unprecedented to nail the location of a storm THAT far out, so I still keep expecting the forecast track to start veering somewhere else. It doesn't seem to be doing that so far, though...

[Buccaneer]

I think I read that wrong. Katrina was a major threat as it came through the Gulf, but not necessarily to NOLA until a few days before.

[Doug5984]

Well I know it's still a far ways out, and I don't think they have ever been spot on 5 days in advance, hell hardly ever right on the 3 day track... but I'm getting the important stuff together, and will trying to figure out where to go if it stays on this track...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Doug5984

Well I know it's still a far ways out, and I don't think they have ever been spot on 5 days in advance, hell hardly ever right on the 3 day track... but I'm getting the important stuff together, and will trying to figure out where to go if it stays on this track...

I just heard that the New Orleans mayor has told everyone to grab their favorite video game console and evacuate to EF27's house.

[Doug5984]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I just heard that the New Orleans mayor has told everyone to grab their favorite video game console and evacuate to EF27's house.

heh- sadly, that's similar to probably what I will end up doing. Best friend lives in Shreveport, probably grab NCAA, my lap top, and dogs and head up there.

Also, I'm in New Orleans right now- came for the Saints game last night, so I get to fight this traffic getting out- it was backed up pretty bad all day yesterday with people heading out of the city.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Doug5984

heh- sadly, that's similar to probably what I will end up doing. Best friend lives in Shreveport, probably grab NCAA, my lap top, and dogs and head up there.

Also, I'm in New Orleans right now- came for the Saints game last night, so I get to fight this traffic getting out- it was backed up pretty bad all day yesterday with people heading out of the city.

I'm guessing there aren't many alternate routes out of that city given all the water in the area. I guess you just have to grin and bear it.

Any chance you could leave late at night or overnight hours to avoid some traffic?

[Doug5984]

Heading home from the game last night at 9:30 I-10 was still backed up real bad in the city, yeah you have a few routes out and thats about it.
I'm actually going to be leaving in 2 hours or so, heading down- to the new girlfriend's parents house which is where they are predicting actual landfall, I'll probably hang out there a day- then head to my house to do what needs to be done- then head out to wherever I go.

Most important thing in a time like this- keep the gas tank full, and have a case of water.

[Eaglesfan27]

Yeah, traffic was bad around Baton Rouge last night, too. I-10 was a parking lot when I left work and I ended up taking back roads that still took over an hour. Usually it takes me 20-30 minutes to get home. My home is just east of the projected track which is bad for us, but people are still evacuating here. My mother-in-law will be arriving either tonight or tomorrow morning (depending upon how tired she is after work.) Most of my wife's family will be arriving Saturday night.

[Doug5984]

The good news for me is to get to Morgan City area when I leave New Orleans I'll quickly jump south on Hwy 90... Traffic will probably be heavy, but I predict not many people will be heading further south like I am... Then from there I may leave in the middle of the night to get back home tonight, get my stuff ready and I'll figure it out from there.

[GoldenEagle]

It looks like Gustav is getting ready to explode. Cuba will get the worse of this storm, with the possibility of it being a 5 when it hammers Cuba. But when it gets out in the gulf, the cooler water should weaken it significantly. I am not saying anyone should let their guard down, but I would bet it comes on shore on the US as a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. The water temperatures in the gulf are too cool to support a 4 or 5.

[SFL Cat]

Good luck to all you Louisiana folks. This one looks like a bitch.

[SFL Cat]

Just took a look at Hannah...very unusual storm track.

[JPhillips]

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen a track with that kind of southerly turn.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

It looks like Gustav is getting ready to explode. Cuba will get the worse of this storm, with the possibility of it being a 5 when it hammers Cuba. But when it gets out in the gulf, the cooler water should weaken it significantly. I am not saying anyone should let their guard down, but I would bet it comes on shore on the US as a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. The water temperatures in the gulf are too cool to support a 4 or 5.

I was wrong. This is thing is strengthening so rapidly that is very scary. If I lived in New Orleans, I would be getting the fuck out of town.

[molson]

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by molson

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

If this thing hits New Orleans like they are saying, I don't see any point in rebuilding.

The problem with this storm is that it is already just HUGE. Even if does not come on land as a 5, it will be a strong 3. It will be a 5 until it hits cooler water which will be really close to land.

The problem is when ERC cycle begins, the storm will get even larger like Katrina did. Except I suspect it will be an even larger storm than Katrina and still have the cat 5 storm surge.

My brother-in-law is in the MS national guard and he was just told he is leaving for the coast tomorrow.

[Eaglesfan27]

All of my family and friends who might have come here are leaving New Orleans tonight. They are all driving here around 2:00 AM or so. Of course, it could be very hairy here with the winds if it keeps the projected path.

[Eaglesfan27]

Gustav is officially a category 5 now.

Edit: At least according to a few of the New Orleans TV websites.

[GoldenEagle]

There is some debate as to whether or not it is a Cat 5 yet. But at this point, it is all elementary. It will turn into a monster in the coast and hopefully calm down a bit when it hits the cooler water close to the coast.

[Doug5984]

Originally Posted by molson

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

Thats not entirely true...
I'd say central Louisiana gets its fair share of storms, and we really only see one every couple of years. You watch it for a few days when one pops up, prepare and do what you can but its not every year, and its not for that long.

We talk about that type of thing a lot, and really everyone I talk to would much rather deal with hurricanes than natural disasters around the rest of the country.

Earthquakes, forest fires, flash floods, blizzards, tornadoes, ice storms- those all seem so much worse than hurricanes, i guess its just personal preference.

[JPhillips]

The tracks keep slipping a little west. It would be great if it hit the less populated areas of southern LA.

[Logan]

Good luck everyone.

[Kodos]

Hope this can hit somewhere relatively unpopulated. UGH.

[SunDevil]

Can someone explain to me how the water would be cooler close to the coast?

[SunDevil]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Mexico

The gulf's warm water temperature can feed powerful Atlantic hurricanes causing extensive human death and other destruction as happened with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In the Atlantic, a hurricane will draw up cool water from the depths and making it less likely that further hurricanes will follow in its wake (warm water being one of the preconditions necessary for their formation). However, the Gulf is shallower and its entire water column is warm. When a hurricane passes over, although the water temperature may drop it soon rebounds and becomes capable of supporting another tropical storm.[6]