POTUS 2024 - Biden vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The 2022 polls were incredibly accurate.

Who was elected President?

[Atocep]

In 2016 and 2020 polling, especially at the state level, was pretty bad. Trump seems to be a wildcard no one knows how to account for in polling.

[thesloppy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-...-changing.html

Along with weighting, pollsters are paying more attention to survey respondents they used to discount.

“Some people will start a poll, they’ll tell you who they’re going to vote for and then they say, ‘I’m done. I don’t want to talk to you anymore. Goodbye,’” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, which helps conduct polls for the New York Times, told CNBC. “In 2020 and 2022, we didn’t count those people.”

But this time around, Levy says they are counting the “drop-offs.”
They found that if they had counted those impatient respondents in 2020 and 2022, their poll results would have moved “about a point and a quarter in the Trump direction,” Levy said, eliminating roughly 40% of their error.

Levy added that SCRI is also taking an extra step to target Trump voters by modeling their sample to include a higher survey quota for people who are considered “high-probability Trump voters in rural areas.”

“If you think of them as M&Ms, let’s say the Trump M&M vote is red,” Levy said. “We have a few extra red M&Ms in the jar.”


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Seems like whatever you thought of previous polling accuracy doesn't even matter, because they've attempted to course-correct this election and these 2024 presidential polls don't necessarily correspond to previous polling methods (or even to any other election's polls).

The folks who fucked up the math in 2016 and 2020, have done some reactionary math, the results of which are entirely out-of-whack with down-ballot polling? Why shouldn't I question that?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Who was elected President?

So a statewide poll for Senate is good but President is not? Dems are performing pretty well in the polls in Senate races so this doesn't appear to be a Republican tilt. Just an incredibly unpopular President polling like an incredibly unpopular Presodent does.

Congrats to Dems on finding their Trump to drag down the ticket.

[RainMaker]

I personally think it will tighten and likely come down to whether Biden can sneak out a win in Michigan despite his troubles in the state. With two unpopular candidates, it comes down to turnout from the base.

But man, I'm blown away with how confident Biden supporters are with his plan and that these polls are off. Maybe they have some inside information we don't have but I'd be panicking and looking to change up strategy if I was them. Especially when democracy or whatever they claim is at stake.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So a statewide poll for Senate is good but President is not?

Yes. That's not exactly a new or shocking revelation & practically any article about polling inaccuracies is particular to Trump voters and presidential elections, not Republican voters and/or state elections.

That being said, it certainly doesn't mean I think Joe Biden is leading in polls/popularity/future votes, I just don't have any belief in polling accuracy at this point.

[RainMaker]

So when they ask a person which Senator they will vote for, it's correct. When they ask that same person which President they vote for, it's wrong.

I don't think it's as bad as those polls look but this is a unique explanation. I can't fathom the stuff we will see if Biden loses. Blew our wad in 2016 over the Russians so maybe the Chinese can be the new villian for why the shitty candidate lost to Trump.

All I ask is that I don't have to sit through 4 years of complaints over voting machines being rigged by Italians or whatever.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So when they ask a person which Senator they will vote for, it's correct. When they ask that same person which President they vote for, it's wrong.

Of course it's not that simple. They could be using an entirely different model for Presidential polling for all that you or I know. Here's what I do know once again:


1. Presidential polling was historically bad for the last 2 presidential elections
2. Those folks who fucked up the polling for those last 2 elections have course-corrected their Presidential polling models
3. The Presidential polling results are entirely out-of-whack with the down-ballot polling results


I am absolutely not going to tell you that means Joe Biden isn't losing or isn't a horrible candidate, but you can't tell me those facts aren't remarkable.

[JPhillips]

The NYT poll is still relying on a lot of voters who didn't vote in 2020 coming out in 2024. Maybe that will happen, but there's reason to be skeptical.

[larrymcg421]

There's no way Trump is up 13 in Nevada and then only 1 nationwide.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

There's no way Trump is up 13 in Nevada and then only 1 nationwide.

Vegas is a traditionally blue bulwark, but I'm seeing a *lot* of support shifting Trump's way, and Republicans making inroads here spells doom for Biden's chances in Nevada, since this state is a big blue southern dot and red everywhere else.

[RainMaker]

He's not going to lose by 13 points but he's not going to win Nevada. Demographics have shifted. Hispanic voters have soured on him and it's a young state which is now a liability for Biden. Same goes for Arizona.

They might be delusional enough to think they can win these states but his best shot is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seem very winnable (I think he wins Pennsylvania), but I have no idea how he's going to turn the tide around in Michigan.

[RainMaker]

A lot has changed in just over 4 years.

Trump doesn’t get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any freshman econ student could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs.

The cashiers at Target see what’s going on – they know more about economics than Trump. #TeamJoe

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 11, 2019

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I personally think it will tighten and likely come down to whether Biden can sneak out a win in Michigan despite his troubles in the state. With two unpopular candidates, it comes down to turnout from the base.

But man, I'm blown away with how confident Biden supporters are with his plan and that these polls are off. Maybe they have some inside information we don't have but I'd be panicking and looking to change up strategy if I was them. Especially when democracy or whatever they claim is at stake.

The sad thing is that this election shouldn't even be close for an incumbent based on historical factors. If this was Joe Biden eight years ago, it would not be close right now. Unfortunately, the opposition hammering away at his frailty and feebleness has taken hold with a lot of voters. If he ends up losing this election, it's going to be because of that.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The sad thing is that this election shouldn't even be close for an incumbent based on historical factors. If this was Joe Biden eight years ago, it would not be close right now. Unfortunately, the opposition hammering away at his frailty and feebleness has taken hold with a lot of voters. If he ends up losing this election, it's going to be because of that.

I think Obama would get 400 electoral votes in this election. The fact the Dems keep having close races with Trump is a sign of just how bad the party is. Whether that's intentional or not is another story.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think Obama would get 400 electoral votes in this election. The fact the Dems keep having close races with Trump is a sign of just how bad the party is. Whether that's intentional or not is another story.

I wonder if the democrats would be in a better position right now if Biden had announced in 2022 that he would not be seeking another term. Perhaps a viable candidate like Gavin Newsome would have emerged, putting them in a better chance of holding the White House. Harris could be problematic. She's seen as an "empty suit" by a lot of voters, and not just by Trump's MAGAts.