2009 NFL Draft Thread(Stafford goes #1 to the Lions)

[stevew]

We're into the last 80 or so hours before the draft, and there's no firm word out of Detroit who will be the number one pick. It's somewhat odd that there's not really an odds on #1 player in this class. Could very well be a bunch of excellent players overall though.

[JonInMiddleGA]

First

I'll go with Aaron Curry, on the criteria of having the most Pro Bowl seasons during his career. Check back in about 15 years & see if I'm right

[Bigsmooth]

In a perfect world the Hawks would swap picks with the Skins (4>>13) and also grab their 1st next year. At 13 (again, perfect world here) the Hawks would be ecstatic to scoop up a falling Crabtree.

[Izulde]

Ryan to Crabtree. Now that'd be a scary combo.

[Julio Riddols]

With the recent retraction by ESPN regarding DT Raji, I would not be terribly upset with Cincinnati going with him at 6.. But with Sanchez growing in popularity, a trade down would be even better.

I'm getting uber excited about the draft like I do every year.. Feels like Christmas.

[Logan]

I went with Eugene Monroe. Maybe its because I've been following him since early in his HS days, but I think he'll be a great LT.

[Swaggs]

I went with Crabtree. He's a freak.

[Swaggs]

Also, in the spirit of draft time, here is a list of unsubstantiated Solec.... er Wonderlic Scores:

Matthew Stafford 38
Mark Sanchez 28
Josh Freeman 27
Rhett Bomar 27
Brian Brunner 16
Nate Davis 11
Stephen McGee 25
Mike Reilly 31
Pat White 23
John Parker Wilson 28

Andre Brown 11
Donald Brown 24
Glen Coffee 27
Shonn Greene 18
P.J. Hill 15
LeSean McCoy 11
Knowshon Moreno 13
Beanie Wells 22

Tony Fiammetta 26
Chris Pressley 21
Brannan Southerland 26
Eddie Williams 28

Hakeem Nicks 11
Michael Crabtree 15
Percy Harvin 14
Kenny Britt 21
Kole Heckendorf 14
Joaquin Iglesias 25
Mohamed Massaquoi 30
Louis Murphy 22
Brian Robiskie 26
Carl Sims 18

Travis Beckum 16
Chase Coffman 23
Jared Cook 25
Shawn Nelson 24

Eben Britton 31
Will Beatty 19
Trevor Canfield 16
Phil Loadholt 23
Andy Kemp 21
Andy Levitre 36
Jon Luigs 32
Alex Mack 24
Craig Urbik 28
Edwin Williams 20
Eric Wood 29
Jose Valdez 14
Sebastian Vollmer 23

Rhyan Anderson 15
Larry English 34
Matt Shaughnessy 18

Jason Chapman 13
Chris Baker 11

DeAndre Levy 21
Jonathan Casillas 21

Nic Schommer 21
Jim Johnson 28

Also, Harvin apparently failed his drug test at the combine. I'm guessing between that, injuries, and relatively low wonderlic, he is going to slip out of the first round (and probably make someone really happy in early round 2).

[Honolulu_Blue]

Whoever the Lions don't pick.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

There's a lot of Chiefs trade rumors being floated locally.

-The Chiefs may be the benefactors of the recent rise of Sanchez's stock. The current rumor locally is that three different teams have talked with the Chiefs about picking up the #3 overall pick in the draft to select either Stafford or Sanchez. Many teams thought that Sanchez would last past the #10 pick, but now those teams between #10 and #20 believe that both Sanchez and Stafford will be gone in the first 5-6 picks.

-More than one station has reported that Tony Gonzalez may very well be on the move, with the early indications being a trade with Atlanta for a 2nd round pick.

-Brian Waters is also being shopped around for draft picks. No word on any suitors.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

There's a lot of Chiefs trade rumors being floated locally.

-The Chiefs may be the benefactors of the recent rise of Sanchez's stock. The current rumor locally is that three different teams have talked with the Chiefs about picking up the #3 overall pick in the draft to select either Stafford or Sanchez. Many teams thought that Sanchez would last past the #10 pick, but now those teams between #10 and #20 believe that both Sanchez and Stafford will be gone in the first 5-6 picks.

Unless the Chiefs are willing to take a discount, I don't see how paying what it would cost to go all the way from the mid teens to #3 (guessing: this year's 1st and 2nd, next year's 1st?) is worth anywhere close to either of those guys. And if I'm the Chiefs, I definitely don't give any discount since dropping down would make me lose out on what few defensive impact players there are in this draft.

I think if Seattle wants Sanchez, they either take him at 4 or toss the Chiefs a pick to swap. Otherwise he'll drop to Jax at 8 where a trade would probably take place.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm thinking that Stafford will be really good. He played well at a BCS school in a pro-style offense and he has all the physical tools.

I think that he's a pretty easy no-brainer pick for the Lions.

(And I am glad that I am not the one to have to make the pick and have my professional life depend on whether he is Drew Brees or Ryan Leaf. Because, really, who the hell knows with first round quarterbacks.)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Unless the Chiefs are willing to take a discount, I don't see how paying what it would cost to go all the way from the mid teens to #3 (guessing: this year's 1st and 2nd, next year's 1st?) is worth anywhere close to either of those guys. And if I'm the Chiefs, I definitely don't give any discount since dropping down would make me lose out on what few defensive impact players there are in this draft.

I think if Seattle wants Sanchez, they either take him at 4 or toss the Chiefs a pick to swap. Otherwise he'll drop to Jax at 8 where a trade would probably take place.

They were discussing the trade value for the #3 pick as well. They mentioned that the trade charts that have been used in past years to determine overall value of picks really need to be thrown out the window in this draft. As you correctly state, the teams that want to trade up won't be offering nearly as much as they have in past years for a similar trade, mostly due to the heavy cap number that the top 5-10 picks command.

I think if Curry is available at #3, the Chiefs will probably take him.

[Dr. Sak]

Here is a stat that I found to be interesting and I have an email in with another Draft guy to see how far back it extends...

By and large, underclassmen quarterbacks have failed miserably in the NFL. Since the 1990 NFL Draft, when underclassmen first became eligible to be drafted after being only three years removed from high school instead of four, there have been 15 quarterbacks drafted in round one.

Of those 15, ony five have been selected to a Pro Bowl — Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Trent Dilfer, Drew Bledsoe. The list of underclass quarterbacks drafted in round one since 1990 has far more misses than hits.

Draft year Name Pick Team School Year
2007 JaMarcus Russell 1 Raiders LSU Junior
2006 Vince Young 3 Titans Texas Junior
2005 Alex Smith 1 49ers Utah Junior
2004 Ben Roethlisberger 11 Steelers Miami (Ohio) Junior
2003 Rex Grossman 22 Bears Florida Junior
2001 Michael Vick 1 Falcons Virginia Tech Sophomore
1999 Tim Couch 1 Browns Kentucky Junior
1998 Ryan Leaf 2 Chargers Washington State Junior
1994 Heath Shuler 3 Redskins Tennessee Junior
1994 Trent Dilfer 6 Buccaneers Fresno State Junior
1993 Drew Bledsoe 1 Patriots Washington State Junior
1992 Tommy Maddox 25 Broncos UCLA Sophomore
1991 Todd Marinovich 24 Raiders USC Sophomore
1990 Jeff George 1 Colts Illinois Junior
1990 Andre Ware 7 Lions Houston Junior

I would really hesitate if I were a team in the top 10 in taking Sanchez or Stafford. I think with them it is more of the weak quarterback class making them look elite rather than their talent.

I go back to a quote by Brian Billick from a few years ago where he said are these quarterbacks really elite or are we talking ourselves into making them elite?

[Logan]

That's what I was saying about what these teams would have to give up Sak. Sanchez wasn't even viewed as a lock 1st round pick when he first announced. Anyone who said he was seemed to indicate it was because there was no clear #2 behind Stafford, so to go out this year was the smarter thing to do financially. As we know, even Carroll didn't think he was ready (yes, he could have said that for his own selfish reasons but I don't think that was it personally). Granted Sanchez has not had much starting experience, but if you don't think a guy is elite after watching him play a full season, but you do after watching him workout...you should be seeing a huge, flashing CAUTION sign in front of your face.

[DaddyTorgo]

I hope Raji goes in the top 5 and then next year BC's stud linebacker (Herzelich) has the kind of strong season he's been putting up and has a monster combine and then he could theoretically go top 5 as well, and then you'd have 3 straight years with BC guys in the top 5. Would do wonders for our program!

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Here is a stat that I found to be interesting and I have an email in with another Draft guy to see how far back it extends...





I would really hesitate if I were a team in the top 10 in taking Sanchez or Stafford. I think with them it is more of the weak quarterback class making them look elite rather than their talent.

I go back to a quote by Brian Billick from a few years ago where he said are these quarterbacks really elite or are we talking ourselves into making them elite?

Exactly why I want the Lions to avoid a QB. The'd be better off trading for David Carr and going with the current version of who they would draft (even though he was a senior.)

Culpepper is ok for now. Take a hard look at Stanton this year... Check the cupboard before you blow $70 million at the store.

[Greyroofoo]

Is anyone else rooting for the lions to pick a receiver?

[Lathum]

did I just hear on ESPN that the draft starts at 4:00 EST this year?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Pretty sure that's the case.

[I. J. Reilly]

I have nothing to add to this thread except that an Oregon Stater has the highest Wonderlic score, that is all.

[CU Tiger]

Hakeem Nicks 11
I'm shocked....I had a conversation with him 2 years ago






He didnt seem nearly that smart

[Fidatelo]

What happened to Michael Oher from the Michael Lewis book? Has he fallen right off the board? I don't really follow this stuff but I liked the book and would like to see him do well.

[Logan]

He should be gone by the mid-1st.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

did I just hear on ESPN that the draft starts at 4:00 EST this year?

Yeah, it was 3 last year. Just gradually pushing it until the eventual Friday night shift for the 1st round.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I've seen Oher going anywhere between 10 and 23 in mocks.

[Fighter of Foo]

1991 Todd Marinovich 24 Raiders USC Sophomore

Really good (long) article on this guy from last week:

Todd Marinovich Bio - Drug Problems of QB Todd Marinovich - Esquire

[Dr. Sak]

Did you read the one on ESPN.com on Tony Mandrich?

[flere-imsaho]

Honestly, if I'm an NFL GM and I have a pick in the top 10, I make it a policy to trade out of it, preferably for as many 2nd round picks as possible. The likely expected value just isn't there in comparison, given the salary demands.

[DeToxRox]

The top Lions beat writer (imo) Dave Birkett posted in his blog that a deal with Stafford could be done today.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Honestly, if I'm an NFL GM and I have a pick in the top 10, I make it a policy to trade out of it, preferably for as many 2nd round picks as possible. The likely expected value just isn't there in comparison, given the salary demands.

And I'd wish you luck as no one is willing to make that deal with you.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by M GO BLUE!!!

Exactly why I want the Lions to avoid a QB. The'd be better off trading for David Carr and going with the current version of who they would draft (even though he was a senior.)

Culpepper is ok for now. Take a hard look at Stanton this year... Check the cupboard before you blow $70 million at the store.

If Stafford is drafted by the Lions, I actually think he has a lot better chance to be successful then a lot of guys on that list because he'll have Calvin Johnson as one of his receivers.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Is anyone else rooting for the lions to pick a receiver?

ha, that's be awesome if they took Crabtree number one. I actually could see them drafting Brandon Pettigrew at #20 which is sort of like drafting a receiver.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Honestly, if I'm an NFL GM and I have a pick in the top 10, I make it a policy to trade out of it, preferably for as many 2nd round picks as possible. The likely expected value just isn't there in comparison, given the salary demands.

this is one of the reasons that the owners are so keen on a rookie salary scale, and the vets in the player's association are willing to go along with it apparently as long as the money saved isn't lopped off the salary cap but is instead left in there to provide more $$ for them.

they were saying on some show i watched last night (it was late idk what show it was) that after the next CBA the NFL's labor agreement will share a lot of things with the NBA's - rookie salary scale, maybe some version of bird rights...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

The top Lions beat writer (imo) Dave Birkett posted in his blog that a deal with Stafford could be done today.

Lions: Reports of imminent signing of quarterback Matthew Stafford 'untrue' -
Detroit Lions: News, Blogs, Photos, Audio, Schedule & Stats - MLive.com

The Detroit Lions say that reports of an imminent signing of Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford are "untrue.'' Both the NFLDraftBible.com and The Oakland Press have reported that a deal is close to being struck that would pay Stafford $40 million in guaranteed money.

"That report is absolutely untrue,'' Lions spokesman Bill Keenist said.


The Lions have gone on the record as saying they wanted to have their first-round draft choice signed prior to the start of the draft, which begins at 4 p.m. Saturday.

The Lions are believed to be negotiating with at least three players: Stafford, Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry and Baylor left tackle Jason Smith.

On the other hand, they also denied that the leak of their new logo was real, so who knows.

[Tigercat]

I am going to go with Moreno having the best career, and this from someone who wasn't really sold on him until last year.

[Passacaglia]

More first pick news:


Source: Lions have Aaron Curry in fold if Matthew Stafford doesn't sign soon -
Detroit Lions: News, Blogs, Photos, Audio, Schedule & Stats - MLive.com

According to a league source, the Detroit Lions have completed contract terms with Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry and the team is now waiting to see if it can reach an agreement with their No. 1 target, Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford. The source said the Lions will not allow a decision to go beyond Friday and if a deal isn't done with Stafford by then, the team will sign Curry and take him with the first overall draft pick.
The source said he believes that Stafford's agent, Tom Condon, will eventually agree to a deal with the Lions but probably won't do it until it gets closer to the Friday deadline. The price of the contract can only go up in the final hours so Condon will likely push the issue as far as he feels he has something to gain.

The Lions, according to the source, aren't budging and are just waiting to see if Stafford accepts their deal before they move to Curry. The Lions have been adamant that they want to get their draft pick signed before the draft starts at 4 p.m. on Saturday.

[Logan]

Curry is already on record as saying he would sign for less than what Jake Long received last year. Smart move by him.

[path12]

Man, I would love Curry to fall to Seattle.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by path12

Man, I would love Curry to fall to Seattle.

Only way I see them taking Curry is if they're going to move Hill. Seems like they've tired of going with the 3 stud LB and want to spread things out a bit.

Personally, I'm hoping for Crabtree to help the offense, then add a C, S and OLB (in some order) with the next 3 picks.

Not that Curry doesn't look like he'll be a special player, just other areas I think they should look at, along with getting Hill signed to a long term deal.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Logan

That's what I was saying about what these teams would have to give up Sak. Sanchez wasn't even viewed as a lock 1st round pick when he first announced. Anyone who said he was seemed to indicate it was because there was no clear #2 behind Stafford, so to go out this year was the smarter thing to do financially. As we know, even Carroll didn't think he was ready (yes, he could have said that for his own selfish reasons but I don't think that was it personally). Granted Sanchez has not had much starting experience, but if you don't think a guy is elite after watching him play a full season, but you do after watching him workout...you should be seeing a huge, flashing CAUTION sign in front of your face.

+1

QB's always get overrated and overhyped. owners love them because they get a face of the franchise and someone to sell tickets. GM's love to make thier owners happy and sports writers and pundits like talking about them and how they will save a franchise

[Racer]

Originally Posted by path12

Man, I would love Curry to fall to Seattle.

I could seriously see him falling to the 5-7 range in this draft as 4-3 LB/3-4 ILB isn't exactly one of the more valued positions in football.

[ColtCrazy]

The more I read about him, the more I'm convinced Aaron Curry will be a great player.

I think later player that will be very good will be Robiskie.

Bust wise: Sanchez....he's shot up everyone's list since he left USC, back when everyone wondered if he should leave. Something about that worries me.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Travis

Only way I see them taking Curry is if they're going to move Hill. Seems like they've tired of going with the 3 stud LB and want to spread things out a bit.

Personally, I'm hoping for Crabtree to help the offense, then add a C, S and OLB (in some order) with the next 3 picks.

Not that Curry doesn't look like he'll be a special player, just other areas I think they should look at, along with getting Hill signed to a long term deal.

I seem to be on an island about not being thrilled with Crabtree. Most of my friends want him to be the pick as well. If not Curry, I want one of those OT's. Walter Jones is coming off a knee microfracture and is only has a year or two left at best.

[Crapshoot]

If I'm the Chiefs and the Redskins offer me a #2 to move from 3 to 13, I'd do it - heck, at some point, the team will have to pay for the right of moving down.

[DeToxRox]

I am actually not too pissed if we get Stafford. I know the history of underclass QB's but this is a kid who started since he was 18 in the SEC and improved every year. He played in a Pro style offense and is obviously smart. He forces things, yes, but Georgia also was not as good as people think.

I realize he struggled in big games but UGA as a whole is terrible in big games. The coaching staff seemingly never had them prepared when it counted and Stafford was the biggest victim of that.

I think had he returned his SR year he'd still be a top 5 pick, and all the 2010 QB's as of right now are Spread QB's, The next Spread QB to succeed will be the first.

Get the kid now if you think he can be the Franchise QB.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by path12

I seem to be on an island about not being thrilled with Crabtree. Most of my friends want him to be the pick as well. If not Curry, I want one of those OT's. Walter Jones is coming off a knee microfracture and is only has a year or two left at best.

My only issue with that is that they've already said (and signed the contract to prove it) that Locklear is Walt's successor. He (Locklear) is better suited to the LT position though he does well at RT. I do like the idea of getting one of the C/G prospects early as they do need help along the interior part of the line, but that's a 2nd or 3rd round type pick (ditto safety). That leaves QB (I'd rather they go for a cheaper/later round developmental option), LB (as we've discussed before), DL (already been addressed) or WR.

My case for Crabtree is that while the team added TJ, all of their legit WR's are older or have had injury concerns while all their current younger guys are developmental projects (lots of raw talent on a few of them, but not nearly enough polish). Crabtree could come in as the #3 (behind TJ/Branch) or the #2 (when Branch invariably gets hurt) and allow Burleson to concentrate more on special teams/not forcing him back too quickly from his injury.

Given his style at WR (attacks the ball/catches with his hands) he'd compliment the rest of the WR's and give the team a chance to groom him to be the eventual position leader while also giving the offense a huge weapon for this year.

Again, I wouldn't hate the Curry pick, and if Crabtree is gone and there are no options to trade down, Curry would be my next choice. Ideally I'd love to see them be able to trade down to 7 or 8 and have Crabtree fall to them there. Likely wishful thinking, but I'm really loathe to spend the #4 pick (and the ensuing contract) on a spot that won't contribute this year (QB/OT) hopefully with both positions potentially being way more stocked with top end talent for next year's draft (not sure about OT, but most of what I'm reading says there'll be many more high end QB options likely in the draft next season).

That said, knowing Ruskell, it'll be Curry as he seems to be one of the few you don't hear them seeming to have too much interest in and the rest of the rumors (Crabtree, the OT's and Sanchez) are just a smoke screen to try and get a chance to trade down.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

If I'm the Chiefs and the Redskins offer me a #2 to move from 3 to 13, I'd do it - heck, at some point, the team will have to pay for the right of moving down.

1. The Redskins don't have a #2 to give up in this year's draft.
2. If moving down is really more valuable than picking at that slot, the team can just refuse to turn in a pick when their time is up and allow the next team to leapfrog them (ala the Vikings from 5ish years ago, although that was unintentional). Of course, if the team after them also refuses to pick, the NFL and players being picked might get a tad embarrassed, the team will have to answer to the fans why they didn't take whomever was taken in their slot, and whatever other fallout might come from saving a bit of cap room when there is the possibility that there won't be a cap.

[Julio Riddols]

I have always wondered, since first hearing this stuff about underclassmen QBs.. How many full-term QBs end up playing well?

Probably about the same number.

It depends entirely on the situation the player comes into.

If a QB gets to sit a year, or if they come into a situation where theyre not expected to be god right away, most times, it seems those are the QBs that succeed.

Stafford is coming into a no-win situation if they expect him to turn the team around in a year.

They'll need to be patient and give him as many tools as they can.

I actually think Sanchez is the better of the two. The talent he had around him was obviously top notch, but he seemed to always follow progressions and do things veteran QBs do. He seems to show more potential, IMO, if he isn't already ahead of Stafford.

If you want an arm with gamebreaker potential, I think you go with Stafford.

If you want a field general who can still make the throws, I think Sanchez has the tools.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by path12

Man, I would love Curry to fall to Seattle.

There's no way that he makes it past the Chiefs unless they get a good enough offer to trade down. In that scenario, the team trading up will likely select a QB, so he probably would fall to Seattle.