Tim Duncan - top ten of all time?

[hoopsguy]

There was a write-up on him by Joe Posnanski in SI this week. Near the end, he suggested that Duncan was one of the ten best players of all time. I'm curious to hear what others think about this. I find him to be a tremendous player, but does he fit on your definition of ten best ever?

Is there some kind of statistical analysis site that covers this type of question? I know of 82games.com but have not seen anything on there with a long-term historic perspective.

OK, quick attempt at sifting through a few players:

1.) Jordan
2.) Chamberlain
3.) Russell
4.) Robertson

Anyone putting Duncan ahead of any of these four?

So he has to be rated ahead of six of the following players, along with anyone else that I'm missing.

Guards - Magic, West, Kobe, Stockton
Forwards - Bird, Malone, Baylor
Centers - Abdul-Jabbar, Olajuwon, Shaq

I may be giving short shrift to some of the old-times like Cousy and Mikan. I'm almost certainly not giving the ABA guys enough love in my lists.

[gstelmack]

I'm not a big fan of putting Shaq on any "Best" list, simply because he only succeeded because refs were afraid to call a charge when he used his single move: back into a player, bump him back, back into him some more, bump him back, dunk while he's stumbling backwards. That was it. He's a classic example of what was wrong with the NBA during the '90s and '00s.

But Duncan has to be high on a list of the best power forwards of all-time certainly. A top-10 power forward, yes. A top-10 player, debatable and probably not solvable.

[henry296]

While not an NBA expert by any means, I think he is ahead of Stockton/Malone and probably Olajuwon too.

[Suburban Rhythm]

I was a pretty big NBA fan in the late 80's into the early 90's, but no longer follow much at all.

I think the best part of the article (read on the way home from work yesterday) is where he points out that when you are watching a Cavs or Lakers game, you don't need to follow the NBA or even understand basketball to know Lebron or Kobe is the best player.

Watching a Spurs game, having never been exposed to basketball before, you'd have a hard time picking out Duncan. Parker is the speedy guy and touches the ball the most, Ginobili is the one taking the acrobatic shots and Duncan is...there.

I don't have article in front of me now, so paraphrasing, but it says Duncan has never averaged less than 20 points, 11 rebs, 2 blocks in any season. It's not flashy, but so consistent.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

Watching a Spurs game, having never been exposed to basketball before, you'd have a hard time picking out Duncan. Parker is the speedy guy and touches the ball the most, Ginobili is the one taking the acrobatic shots and Duncan is...there.

I watch less basketball than most anyone on this board, but if my memory serves me right, Parker and Ginobili where only there during the twilight of Ducan's career, he did quite a bit before they ever came around. But of course he had Robinson then.

[RainMaker]

He is better than Kobe, Stockton, Malone, Baylor, Olajuwon and Shaq.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

I don't have article in front of me now, so paraphrasing, but it says Duncan has never averaged less than 20 points, 11 rebs, 2 blocks in any season. It's not flashy, but so consistent.

Originally Posted by DanGarion

I watch less basketball than most anyone on this board, but if my memory serves me right, Parker and Ginobili where only there during the twilight of Ducan's career, he did quite a bit before they ever came around. But of course he had Robinson then.

He actually averaged 18.6 in his lowest season a few years ago and has been around 19 ppg the last few. However, he has generally been very consistent. He doesn't take an excessive amount of shots and is an efficient scorer (over 50% shooting for his career.) He has always been a team first type of guy. He has averaged a very respectable (for a PF/C) 3.2 assists per game. No doubt, he is a top 10 Forward, and I think an argument can be made for top 10 player.

Dan, he is just now starting the twilight of his career. Parker and Ginobili have been around for the heart of his career. Robinson was around only for the very beginning of his career.

[rowech]

FWIW Bill Simmons has him ranked 7th in his book. I think he's definitely behind:

Jordan, Russell, Chamberlin, Magic, Bird, Kobe, and Kareem.

He's definitely ahead of:

Stockton, Malone, Baylor

He's right around:

Olajuwon, Oscar, and Shaq

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Dan, he is just now starting the twilight of his career. Parker and Ginobili have been around for the heart of his career. Robinson was around only for the very beginning of his career.

For some reason I'm stretching NBA time out longer than I should. You are right.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by rowech

FWIW Bill Simmons has him ranked 7th in his book. I think he's definitely behind:

Jordan, Russell, Chamberlin, Magic, Bird, Kobe, and Kareem.

He's definitely ahead of:

Stockton, Malone, Baylor

He's right around:

Olajuwon, Oscar, and Shaq

This

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by rowech

FWIW Bill Simmons has him ranked 7th in his book. I think he's definitely behind:

Jordan, Russell, Chamberlin, Magic, Bird, Kobe, and Kareem.

He's definitely ahead of:

Stockton, Malone, Baylor

He's right around:

Olajuwon, Oscar, and Shaq

I'd put Oscar ahead of him, but I went to University of Cincinnati so I may be a little bias. But this is pretty close.

[Big Fo]

He's the best power forward of all-time and one of the top ten all-time.

Originally Posted by rowech

FWIW Bill Simmons has him ranked 7th in his book. I think he's definitely behind:

Jordan, Russell, Chamberlin, Magic, Bird, Kobe, and Kareem.

He's definitely ahead of:

Stockton, Malone, Baylor

He's right around:

Olajuwon, Oscar, and Shaq

I'd put him above Kobe and the guys he's listed as being right around in this post.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm not a big fan of putting Shaq on any "Best" list, simply because he only succeeded because refs were afraid to call a charge when he used his single move: back into a player, bump him back, back into him some more, bump him back, dunk while he's stumbling backwards. That was it. He's a classic example of what was wrong with the NBA during the '90s and '00s.

But Duncan has to be high on a list of the best power forwards of all-time certainly. A top-10 power forward, yes. A top-10 player, debatable and probably not solvable.

Chamberlain's game could be knocked just as easily as Shaq's. Jordan probably got more favors from refs than any player ever.

[Atocep]

Dola

Tim Duncan is hands down the best power forward ever and a top 10 player.

[Warhammer]

This is one that is difficult to measure. I always knock Jordan down a rung because there was no one else around during his time. With Magic you had him, Bird, Dr. J, Kareem, etc. Who else was around during Jordan's time. As a result, he looks that much better.

[stevew]

You have to take the offensive eras into account here as well. In a different era, Duncan probably grabs a lot more rebounds and scores several more points per game. Guy is one of the best we will ever see. I dunno if he is a top ten player, but most likely he is.

[Young Drachma]

Duncan probably gets less hype because he plays in San Antonio and he's such a quiet guy. I think history will look positively upon his work though.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

This is one that is difficult to measure. I always knock Jordan down a rung because there was no one else around during his time. With Magic you had him, Bird, Dr. J, Kareem, etc. Who else was around during Jordan's time. As a result, he looks that much better.

There were plenty of great players around during Jordan's time. That's just how good Jordan was. Malone, Stockton, Barkley, Olajuwon, Shaq, Robinson, Drexler, Ewing, and some others. He looks that much better because he WAS that much better.

Basketball is a game that has changed so much. I think it's the toughest game there is to compare across eras because the game looks the same even though it isn't even close to being played the same.

[Calis]

I think Duncan is probably the best PF of all-time, and if not top 10 overall, definitely top 15.

I think his impact gets taken for granted or underestimated because of how he plays and how he acts.

[albionmoonlight]

If Duncan had had the exact same career that he has had, but for the Knicks instead of the Spurs, then people would be debating whether he was the best big man of all time.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If Duncan had had the exact same career that he has had, but for the Knicks instead of the Spurs, then people would be debating whether he was the best big man of all time.

This.

[whomario]

Definitely, imo.

Apart from the obvious 2 more things i find amazing about him :

His defense is incredible, amazing combination of great man defense and great team defense and on the offensive side he´s such an amazing Passer and Playmaker from the high post, maybe the best at that as well among big men. Others make as many good passes because they are dominant and draw a ton of attention (Shaq) or are extremely agile/versatile (Garnett) but Duncan has such an amazing feel for the right pass at the right time and is so calm and collected when pressured, pretty great to watch.
Not only the "assist" but seeing him make smart little pass after smart little pass.

"He may be a 7-footer, but he's basically a quarterback in shorts," said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich.

corrseponding article from 2 1/2 years ago i had bookmarked : http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baske...s-duncan_N.htm

@ Steve Bollea ? Growing years ? From the moment he stepped in Duncan was incredible and by their 2nd season together allready head and shoulders above Robinson.

[jbergey22]

Im not sure about this one. What do you guys think about Kevin Garnett? They have very similiar career stats.

Win Shares for KG 162.37, Win Shares for Duncan 158.41.

The most underrated part of Duncan has always been his defense.

Id put Wilt, MJ, Russell, Kobe, Magic, Bird, Kareem, Oscar ahead of Duncan at THIS point. There are about 5-10 players to choose between for the last 2 spots IMO.

Olajuwon
Malone
Stockton
Duncan
Shaq
Robinson
Baylor
Erving

IMO Duncan still needs to do more to be ahead of Malone.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If Duncan had had the exact same career that he has had, but for the Knicks instead of the Spurs, then people would be debating whether he was the best big man of all time.

So if Jordan played for the TWolves, he wouldnt be the best ever?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

So if Jordan played for the TWolves, he wouldnt be the best ever?

I think the point is that no one would even be talking about him as the best ever.

SI

[sterlingice]

I'm still not sure how there are so many people putting Kobe Bryant above Tim Duncan.

SI

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm still not sure how there are so many people putting Kobe Bryant above Tim Duncan.

SI

Maybe it's easier to appreciate excellent perimeter players than excellent big men or something. They're wrong, but I can at least see why someone might say Kobe is better than Duncan. Karl Malone though? That is laughable.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm still not sure how there are so many people putting Kobe Bryant above Tim Duncan.

SI

+1

[rowech]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Im not sure about this one. What do you guys think about Kevin Garnett? They have very similiar career stats.

Win Shares for KG 162.37, Win Shares for Duncan 158.41.

The most underrated part of Duncan has always been his defense.

Id put Wilt, MJ, Russell, Kobe, Magic, Bird, Kareem, Oscar ahead of Duncan at THIS point. There are about 5-10 players to choose between for the last 2 spots IMO.

Olajuwon
Malone
Stockton
Duncan
Shaq
Robinson
Baylor
Erving

IMO Duncan still needs to do more to be ahead of Malone.

How can you say that? Malone never won a title, getting there only once despite having arguably the best PG in 20 years and a good supporting cast that complemented his game in every way possible. Simply no excuse for Malone not to have one a title...let alone to only get to one title series.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Im not sure about this one. What do you guys think about Kevin Garnett? They have very similiar career stats.

Garnett vs. Duncan is a legitimate question. They're very close and I think both players are historically awesome and probably both are top 10. Both guys are in my top-5 favorite NBA players from the last 20 years.

Duncan is clearly one of the great Tier 1.5 guys. That puts him on par with Garnett, Kobe, Moses Malone (how are people forgetting him?!?), Shaq, Hakeem, Karl Malone, Baylor, etc. That's damn fine company. Rank those guys how you want, but they're all clustered together.

The Tier 1s are: Wilt, MJ, Russell, Magic, Bird, Kareem and Oscar. I don't think Duncan belongs in that category now and I don't think he ever will. That's not an insult to Duncan.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by rowech

How can you say that? Malone never won a title, getting there only once despite having arguably the best PG in 20 years and a good supporting cast that complemented his game in every way possible. Simply no excuse for Malone not to have one a title...let alone to only get to one title series.

So now this debate is based on titles? That throws a wrinkle on everything.

Karl Malone is 3rd all time in win shares with 76 more than Duncan 234.62 to 158.41

Did people suddenly forget how good Malone was simply because he didnt win a Championship?

Karl Malone NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com

I was never a fan of Malone but I cant hide from what the numbers are telling me.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm still not sure how there are so many people putting Kobe Bryant above Tim Duncan.

SI

Kobe is a top 5 guard of all time, why wouldn't you? Kobe's flaw has always been that he's not MJ and gets knocked for it, which isn't fair

[rowech]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

So now this debate is based on titles? That throws a wrinkle on everything.

Karl Malone is 3rd all time in win shares with 76 more than Duncan 234.62 to 158.41

Did people suddenly forget how good Malone was simply because he didnt win a Championship?

Karl Malone NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com

I was never a fan of Malone but I cant hide from what the numbers are telling me.

And if that's all you're going on then Karl Malone is the third greatest basketball player of all-time.

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Win Shares | Basketball-Reference.com

Not to mention he has the 5th best of all time as his teammate almost his entire career and they had nothing to show for it.

Tells me all I need to know....both of them were great regular season players who played a long time but in the end, have nothing to really show for it other than their individual accomplishments.

[rowech]

As a follow up...Bill Russell is the 14th best player of all-time? He beat Wilt up his whole time. This is why such stats can't be thrown around as the be all end all. It is not even close to the full picture.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by rowech

And if that's all you're going on then Karl Malone is the third greatest basketball player of all-time.

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Win Shares | Basketball-Reference.com

Not to mention he has the 5th best of all time as his teammate almost his entire career and they had nothing to show for it.

Tells me all I need to know....both of them were great regular season players who played a long time but in the end, have nothing to really show for it other than their individual accomplishments.

They also have the Hall of Fame and lots of banked money. I guess if you are of the opinion Dan Marino wasnt a great QB because he didnt win a Super Bowl than I guess you can say that about Malone/Stockton as well. It is opinion.

Stats can tell people different things and some people dont agree with the importance of stats.

The question itself was vague so of course there is going to be numerous responses.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Kobe is a top 5 guard of all time, why wouldn't you? Kobe's flaw has always been that he's not MJ and gets knocked for it, which isn't fair

But how is being a top 5 guard instantly better than being one of the top 5 bigs of all time? I'm not saying you can't do it, but it seems like people are just doing this without even thinking about it.

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by rowech

As a follow up...Bill Russell is the 14th best player of all-time? He beat Wilt up his whole time. This is why such stats can't be thrown around as the be all end all. It is not even close to the full picture.

Well they didnt track many of the stats needed to make it a complete stat back then.

Comparing modern players it works pretty good. Divide Win Shares/years played to get a more accurate reading.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

But how is being a top 5 guard instantly better than being one of the top 5 bigs of all time? I'm not saying you can't do it, but it seems like people are just doing this without even thinking about it.

SI

Kobe probably still has 6-10 years left after hes done there will be no doubt.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

They also have the Hall of Fame and lots of banked money. I guess if you are of the opinion Dan Marino wasnt a great QB because he didnt win a Super Bowl than I guess you can say that about Malone/Stockton as well. It is opinion.

Stats can tell people different things and some people dont agree with the importance of stats.

The question itself was vague so of course there is going to be numerous responses.

I think using championships as a measure of greatness makes more sense in basketball than football. In one game five guys play offense and defense and maybe eight or nine guys get significant playing time. In the other game eleven guys play offense and eleven other guys play defense, plus subs and special teams. A superstar basketball player has a lot more influence on the game's final result than in football imo.

And I don't really care that much about longevity, I think at their peaks Duncan was better than Malone. Duncan scored fewer points but outrebounded Malone slightly, blocked a lot more shots, was a better defender, and didn't have a HOF point guard setting him up. The championships are icing on the cake.

[jbergey22]

Id agree Duncan was better at his peak than Malone.

One might say Shaq was stronger at his peak than Kareem Abdul Jabbar so it leaves the wording of the question up for debate itself.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

They also have the Hall of Fame and lots of banked money. I guess if you are of the opinion Dan Marino wasnt a great QB because he didnt win a Super Bowl than I guess you can say that about Malone/Stockton as well. It is opinion.

Stats can tell people different things and some people dont agree with the importance of stats.

The question itself was vague so of course there is going to be numerous responses.

Depends on the sport. Baseball I never even consider if a guy won a title. Football, I like the guy to have a title but understand it's not a be all end all. The only position I really pay attention to it is QB. Marino rarely had a running game to go with his style/skills. That said, it's definitely something that's missing on his resume. It's not totally his fault though.

Basketball for me is different. You only have a few players on the court and it's the one sport where all players play offense and all players play defense. More than that, they all play defense at the same time or they all play offense at the same time. It's a sport where superstars can, and quite frankly should/must, take over when the game is on the line, when the playoffs are on the line, or when the title is on the line.

Basketball to me is the one sport where a great player can win the game for his team and can do it in a variety of ways. He can score, he can rebound, he can play defense, he can do all of it, he can inspire/will his team to victory, etc. That's not to say he can do it without help and some decent talent around him. To have Stockton and Malone though and to have good talent to complement those two and have nothing to show for it is a glaring problem for those two and always will be.

[jbergey22]

Well Stockton/Malone were system guys I dont think anyone would doubt that but IMO they also lost to some of the best teams of all time when they got to the NBA Finals. They won a lot of games but couldnt get it done in the playoffs for one reason or another. I know the team had talent but Im not sure if the talent was really built for winning championships. They usually had 2 slower footed shorter crafty guards, an athletic 3, and a clutzy 7 foot center that just played defense. It wasnt an athletic team that could match the athletes of the better teams.

People said that KG was a playoff choker as well until he gets 2 HOF players around him and wins it the first year going to Boston.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rowech

Depends on the sport. Baseball I never even consider if a guy won a title. Football, I like the guy to have a title but understand it's not a be all end all. The only position I really pay attention to it is QB. Marino rarely had a running game to go with his style/skills. That said, it's definitely something that's missing on his resume. It's not totally his fault though.

Basketball for me is different. You only have a few players on the court and it's the one sport where all players play offense and all players play defense. More than that, they all play defense at the same time or they all play offense at the same time. It's a sport where superstars can, and quite frankly should/must, take over when the game is on the line, when the playoffs are on the line, or when the title is on the line.

Basketball to me is the one sport where a great player can win the game for his team and can do it in a variety of ways. He can score, he can rebound, he can play defense, he can do all of it, he can inspire/will his team to victory, etc. That's not to say he can do it without help and some decent talent around him. To have Stockton and Malone though and to have good talent to complement those two and have nothing to show for it is a glaring problem for those two and always will be.

umm - soccer? hockey?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

umm - soccer? hockey?

Pish...only fuzzy-lipped European metros and flannel wearing moose fuckers play those games!

[rowech]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

umm - soccer? hockey?

Fair enough but those are on a different level than baseball, football, and basketball.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by rowech

Fair enough but those are on a different level than baseball, football, and basketball.

you're right. soccer is the most popular sport in the world.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you're right. soccer is the most popular sport in the world.

For the purposes of this discussion they are on a different level although I would say hockey and soccer are similar to basketball. The really great players can carry their teams the same way as in basketball. Easier in hockey than in soccer but similar.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

So if Jordan played for the TWolves, he wouldnt be the best ever?

It's an interesting question. Jordan may be the one player in my lifetime who was bigger than the sport. I guess LeBron is on his way there, too. So, for Jordan, maybe it wasn't necessary that he be in a big market. Though I am sure that it helped that he was.

But I don't think that you can reasonably deny that, simply through sheer over-exposure, players for the Knicks and Lakers are seen as better than similarly situated players for other teams--especially small market teams.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by rowech

There were plenty of great players around during Jordan's time. That's just how good Jordan was. Malone, Stockton, Barkley, Olajuwon, Shaq, Robinson, Drexler, Ewing, and some others. He looks that much better because he WAS that much better.

Basketball is a game that has changed so much. I think it's the toughest game there is to compare across eras because the game looks the same even though it isn't even close to being played the same.

How many of those guys were superstars? Barkley and possibly Ewing, that is it. The others were great players, not legends. During the 80s, you had those guys named above early in their career, and Dr. J, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic, Kareem, Alex English (one of the all-time underrated players), Dominique, the Iceman, Adrian Dantley, etc.

[Noop]

Duncan is in the top 12ish but I am not sure if he is top 5 because only two players(maybe three) players will ever get close too top 5 Kobe, LeBron, Wade.