2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Dutch]

I'm pretty sure its First Ladies and TV personalities from here on out.

[flere-imsaho]

Straight from conspiracy theory central, we have the hypothesis that the reason Cruz dropped out of the race now is so that he can mount a bid as an independent candidate.

In order to do that, he'd need to get on individual states' ballots. The first such deadline is coming up, May 9th, and is for... wait for it... Texas.

Ballot access reference: Ballot access for presidential candidates - Ballotpedia

[Logan]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if this will encourage more celebrities to run for president in the future.

I heard billionaire investor Chris Sacca on with Bill Simmons the other day, legitimately trying to make the case that Mark Cuban will run for President after a B2B Hillary term.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by cartman

I remember what a friend from Munich told me after Schwarzenegger won the Governor's race in California: "Be very careful, we elected an Austrian once".

/pedantry

No, they didn't. They elected Nazis to the Reichstag in sufficient numbers that the Conservatives opted to make Hitler the head of a coalition government rather than risk the Nazis winning an outright majority in new elections (and even that's a simplification).

By the time Hitler was facing plebescites (and we'll leave aside the question of their legitimacy), he was firmly ensconced in power. German voters never had a direct say in his takeover of the German state.

//pedantry

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Logan

I heard billionaire investor Chris Sacca on with Bill Simmons the other day, legitimately trying to make the case that Mark Cuban will run for President after a B2B Hillary term.

Cuban/Mr. Wonderful 2024!

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

/pedantry

No, they didn't. They elected Nazis to the Reichstag in sufficient numbers that the Conservatives opted to make Hitler the head of a coalition government rather than risk the Nazis winning an outright majority in new elections (and even that's a simplification).

By the time Hitler was facing plebescites (and we'll leave aside the question of their legitimacy), he was firmly ensconced in power. German voters never had a direct say in his takeover of the German state.

//pedantry

Pedantry doesn't excuse or circumvent Godwins Law.

But I have a reasonable expectation that people are gonna go wild with comparisons, there's no stopping it.

[Dutch]

And Kasich drops out, 4th, behind Cruz and Rubio.

Donald Trump is officially the last man standing from the field of 17(?) that started this thing 82 (possible exaggeration) months ago...

[lungs]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

Coolidge!! He is a great Republican model?! If so, mental illness must literally be a prerequisite to being a great president.

This jumped out at me too and made me laugh. Some Conservatives have done a great job of historical revisionism and rehabilitation of Calvin Coolidge. According to them, The Great Depression was because Hoover didn't keep to Coolidge's extreme laissez-faire economic approach and FDR was the devil who prolonged the misery.

Gives me a good chuckle anytime I see it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Dutch

And Kasich drops out, 4th, behind Cruz and Rubio.

Donald Trump is officially the last man standing from the field of 17(?) that started this thing 82 (possible exaggeration) months ago...

It seems so long ago that Donald Trump descended on his magic escalator and announced his presidential bid.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by panerd

Cuban/Mr. Wonderful 2024!

Mr Wonderful is Canadian just like Ted Cruz

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It seems so long ago that Donald Trump descended on his magic escalator and announced his presidential bid.

lmao

[Solecismic]

"I'm the king of debt. I love debt," Trump said. "The problem with Puerto Rico is they have far too much debt."

Lovely. At least he has limits. It's too bad we can't build a wall around the treasury.

[Senator]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

What I find amazing is that second term Reagan vs. Dukakis was the last "worthy" match up

Reagan v Mondale, perhaps you mean.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Senator

Reagan v Mondale, perhaps you mean.

Surely jest. 2016-(6*4).

[bhlloy]

I did get a chuckle at the thought of all these Republican big wigs trying to put a brave face on it and convince themselves that maybe Trump won't be too bad and then turning on Fox News to hear in his first interview he spoke about raising the minimum wage.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Lovely. At least he has limits. It's too bad we can't build a wall around the treasury.

The economy and national debt doesn't matter. We, as a nation of voters, couldn't care less. But suggest somebody is building a wall around the treasury and is racist....now you've got our attention!

[stevew]

Hillary Clinton Would Like to Thank GOP Leaders for Making Her Latest Attack Ad

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

A coup for the Trump campaign:

Lena Dunham: I'll move to Canada if Donald Trump is president - CNNPolitics.com

I didn't much appreciate her appearance on Game of Thrones Sunday night.

How come none of these people threaten to move to Mexico?

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, in Trump's case, if they want to move back after he's out of office, they couldn't - there'd be a wall in the way.

[stevew]

If the election is a shitshow and Drumpf wins, can't they just impeach him after the midterm if he's awful?

[PilotMan]

On a totally semi-unrelated note.

I was thinking about the amount that John Oliver had for cost figure for the wall. I think it was in the 20-24 billion dollar range and then 7 billion per year to maintain it after that. Then I came across a number that described how much Quatar is spending to build 10 stadiums plus housing for the 2022 World Cup and it's like 200 billion.

I see the number, but it's so freaking big that I just can't wrap my head around it. I mean we are used to hearing big numbers in the US, like the total cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan is over 4 trillion, but 200 billion for a soccer tournament? 200,000 million dollars and that's basically using slave labor to build everything.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, maybe if you could play football in the wall...

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Pedantry doesn't excuse or circumvent Godwins Law.

But I have a reasonable expectation that people are gonna go wild with comparisons, there's no stopping it.

Godwin's Law has nothing to do with history. It has everything to do with people misusing a particular bit of the historical record to shut down discussion.

RETHUGLICANS ARE WORSE THAN HITLER!!!ONE1! would be an invocation of Godwin's Law. "German parliamentary democracy didn't actually work that way," on the other hand, would not.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Godwin's Law has nothing to do with history. It has everything to do with people misusing a particular bit of the historical record to shut down discussion.

RETHUGLICANS ARE WORSE THAN HITLER!!!ONE1! would be an invocation of Godwin's Law. "German parliamentary democracy didn't actually work that way," on the other hand, would not.

My rule is passive reference to Hitler in a political thread is Godwin's Law. Sorry!

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

On a totally semi-unrelated note.

I was thinking about the amount that John Oliver had for cost figure for the wall. I think it was in the 20-24 billion dollar range and then 7 billion per year to maintain it after that. Then I came across a number that described how much Quatar is spending to build 10 stadiums plus housing for the 2022 World Cup and it's like 200 billion.

I see the number, but it's so freaking big that I just can't wrap my head around it. I mean we are used to hearing big numbers in the US, like the total cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan is over 4 trillion, but 200 billion for a soccer tournament? 200,000 million dollars and that's basically using slave labor to build everything.

Think of all the opulent things we could build here if we just didn't worry about a wall and just allowed all the illegals to work here. I think Trump is looking at this from the wrong angle. There could be a Trump Tower in every major city. We'd have the best Trump Towers.

#MAKEAMERICAOPULENTAGAIN

[Dutch]

They aren't here long enough, we are deporting as many as are coming in. It's the revolving door shit that is costly (and bringing in all the drugs and human trafficking) that a more secure border would start to eliminate. It's not about racism.

[Senator]

Never ask me about my political predictions again. It is a new world that passed me by. If at anytime you asked me if this was a possible match up, I would have bet the farm against. So, now I just watch. My opinions have no value, as I based them on my historical acumen.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Senator

Never ask me about my political predictions again. It is a new world that passed me by. If at anytime you asked me if this was a possible match up, I would have bet the farm against. So, now I just watch. My opinions have no value, as I based them on my historical acumen.

Same with me and my Marco Rubio prediction. But in my defense, that was before he got stuck in an infinite loop during a debate.

[bhlloy]

Or decided that the serious way forward to prove he was a sensible mature candidate for the presidency of the United States was a half weeks worth of small dick jokes?

[PilotMan]

You have to wonder a little if being beaten by Trump in this fashion damages the long term prospects of any of them. For starters, they'll never be able to live it down to themselves. They were beaten, by Trump, during a time after 8 years of a Democrat president.

Then there's that concept that you were good until the chips were down and you blew it perception that the public gets. That's where I think it'll cost them. The next time the big money wants to hook the money train up to one of them they'll be reminded of the time they lost in phenomenal fashion to Trump.

It's going to stick with each of them in one way or another. I just wonder if it'll end up sinking this entire cadre of Republican leaders. Four years from now it could be an entirely different slew of people for the nomination.

[bhlloy]

I think there's absolutely no doubt about that. Rubio was supposed to be the rising star of the party who could win back the Hispanic vote and I can't see a way back for him after this. He didn't even manage to win his own state in the primary and got completely embarrassed by Trump.

Those few days where he sunk to Trumps level was some of the most cringeworthy political stuff I've seen and there's no way that doesn't stick to him. Christie was already flaming out and the weird endorsement is probably him done. Kasich is a nobody who happened to be the only moderate left in because of the timing of Ohio.

The one who probably comes out of this the best is Cruz, especially if Trump loses horribly. It will be another round of "we lost because we weren't truly conservative enough" and I think he'll stand again - if he wants to.

[SackAttack]

My guess is the ones who will be hurt worst are the ones who stuck around to the bitter end. Some, like Carson, were "outsiders" to begin with who probably wouldn't have been taken seriously in a more traditional cycle.

I mean, to the extent anybody did take him seriously. So that's harder to measure. Will it hurt him? I dunno. Will the GOP electorate crave an outsider again in 4 years? In 8?

I think Perry is done, but not because of Trump - because he's had two bites at the apple and hasn't done shit with it.

I think Walker dropped out early enough that he can make another run at it, as much as it pains me to say that.

But I'm not sure there's a path back to national relevance for Cruz or Rubio; Kasich's best shot was "I'm Walker with a conscience and I'm the most establishment guy left with Rubio and Bush done."

Which...Bush. I never got the sense he wanted this. It felt like he was doing it because somebody obligated him to. I'm not sure losing to Trump finishes him because I'm not sure he has any interest in national politics anyway.

My guess: George P. Bush will be the Great Hispanic Hope of the GOP in four years, assuming there isn't a party-destroying schism this summer.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Dutch

They aren't here long enough, we are deporting as many as are coming in. It's the revolving door shit that is costly (and bringing in all the drugs and human trafficking) that a more secure border would start to eliminate. It's not about racism.

And ain't that the fun bit? The Obama Administration has deported more illegal immigrants than any Administration in recent history, and yet somehow he's supposed to be facilitating this. Illegal immigration is actually decreasing (that is, the population of illegals has been shrinking in recent years), but you wouldn't know it to listen to Trump or his supporters.

Oh, and a hefty chunk of illegal immigration (not sure if we're talking plurality or majority here) are actually visa overstays, not border jumpers.

But even if it's NOT about racism and putting those damn beaners in their place, a wall isn't going to prevent drugs or human trafficking. There's already a tunnel system, and you can bet that would expand if a wall went up.

The Romans and the Chinese before us should have been an illustration to the efficacy of a wall as immigration control.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Or decided that the serious way forward to prove he was a sensible mature candidate for the presidency of the United States was a half weeks worth of small dick jokes?

That too.

[JAG]

The debate thing is what really sunk Rubio. Before that, he had momentum off a better-than-expected finish in Iowa and donors / endorsements were starting to head his way. The dick jokes were when he realistically didn't have a chance anymore, so he employed a high risk strategy to try and turn things around. That might hurt him more in the long run though, assuming he wants to do this again.

[flere-imsaho]

Indeed. I think I said in this thread, after Iowa, that Rubio was going to get the nomination. He had everything else he needed and he got a good third (and story) out of Iowa. And then literally a day later he completely melts down in the debate.

[Ryche]

The debates were the final nail for Rubio but I think his unwillingness to put in the kind of effort that someone like Cruz put into organization will be the biggest strike against his future political ambitions.

[Solecismic]

I think this is about the people, not the candidates. Both sides are reacting to populism rather strongly. The math is different because the Democrats have superdelegates and they started with far fewer candidates. But it's the same story.

We've had rather weak GDP growth for many years now. Unemployment is low only because millions stopped looking for work. We're weary of the war and the 24/7 supply of violence around the world. We're tired of politicians who seem more interested in enriching their wallets than serving the people.

It's an environment ripe for populism.

So the populist candidates resonated quickly. To me, Sanders turning this into a fairly close race is almost as surprising as Trump's win. Because Clinton essentially had the blessing of a sitting president who is still reasonably popular with the Democratic base.

I have little idea what will happen over the next six months. It will definitely be unpleasant. Clinton knows the best way to beat Trump is to push his buttons and make him react. A woman pushing his buttons is guaranteed to enrage him, and we've seen he has no filter when he's enraged. So I think the odds are heavily in her favor, but who knows?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

We've had rather weak GDP growth for many years now. Unemployment is low only because millions stopped looking for work.

I actually wonder if this isn't the least economically focused presidential race in a long time.

I hear few people backing Trump because "he's gonna make jobs", ditto Hilary.
Hell, I hear few people backing her at all though they obviously exist.

I know, I know "It's the economy, stupid" ... but these races feel more about philosophy or core values or something in that vicinity than about economics particularly.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

To me, Sanders turning this into a fairly close race is almost as surprising as Trump's win.

I actually find Sanders more surprising than Trump, though I suspect that's largely because I've become desensitized to the fact that Trump is going to win the primary. Both are still fascinating to me.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Unemployment is low only because millions stopped looking for work.

What is the point you are making with the stat? Obama should have created more/better jobs or Obama eliminated resolve by extending benefits?

I'm asking because I recently stumbled on an article about this. Here's a quote from CNBC: Nearly 9 of out 10 respondents (89 percent) said they would "search harder and wider" for work if their benefits ran out.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Unemployment is low only because millions stopped looking for work.

That's not necessarily true. U-6, which counts people who stopped looking for work and part time people who want full time work has been dropping quite rapidly since the Great Recession.

U6 Unemployment Rate | MacroTrends

[Solecismic]

None of the measures (U-1 through U-6) include people who don't want to work.

[corbes]

I mean, if we're willing to talk about SSDI and be realistic about that, the number of able-bodied young people who aren't working is astronomical. Call it unemployment or disability or whatever you want, but there's an entire generation of adults not working and an entire generation of children growing up without any adult role models around them who work.

[Young Drachma]

"Astronomical"

[JPhillips]

"The number isn't reflective, I've seen numbers of 24 percent -- I actually saw a number of 42 percent unemployment. Forty-two percent. 5.3 percent unemployment -- that is the biggest joke there is in this country. … The unemployment rate is probably 20 percent, but I will tell you, you have some great economists that will tell you it's a 30, 32. And the highest I've heard so far is 42 percent."

[JPhillips]

When I'm President everyone will be rich!

Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, said Sunday that "people have to get more," after spending time on the campaign trail striking down the possibility of a minimum wage hike.

"I am looking at it, and I haven't decided in terms of numbers. But I think people have to get more," Trump said on ABC News' "This Week."

Trump has said that the wages were too high in the country, notably at a debate in November. Trump told ABC host George that it was a different opinion than previously expressed.

"Sure, it's a change. I'm allowed to change," he said. "But my real minimum wage is going to be — I'm going to bring companies back into this country, and they're going to make a lot more than the $15 even."

Trump acknowledged on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that he wanted to just have the states decide.

"And I don't know how people make it on $7.25 an hour. Now, with that being said, I would like to see an increase of some magnitude," Trump said. "But I'd rather leave it to the states. Let the states decide."

[Solecismic]

It's his consistency that annoys me almost as much as his silly populism. I agree it should be a state (or city) decision, propped up by a national minimum that probably should be higher than $7.25. I hate the way he makes it obvious that he gives this almost no thought - he's certainly not taking the time to sit down with a group of experts and sorting through charts.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

None of the measures (U-1 through U-6) include people who don't want to work.

Why would it? If someone isn't looking or can't be in the workforce, why would you count them?

[Dutch]

Minimum wage is such an arbitrary number. I personally cannot wrap my brain around what works best for everybody in the lowest skilled jobs. When I was a kid, it was just spending money. So I guess I'm bias(...duh).