10-19-2020, 08:58 PM | #4851 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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I'll dola and say that Rick Santelli hasn't exactly been having his daily meltdoowns like he did under Obama, when we're arguably in a much worse situation now than we were in then.
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10-20-2020, 06:55 AM | #4852 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fairfax, VA
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So I saw where Neil deGrasse Tyson is warning an asteroid could hit the earth the day before election day. Yep, 2020.
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10-20-2020, 07:59 AM | #4853 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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I saw his FB post; it was more a "this is going to give us a drive-by, but things are fine. If things are going to blow up before Election Day, it's gonna be something else."
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10-20-2020, 08:08 AM | #4854 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Kalamazoo, MI
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Read about it a while ago. Isn't it only the size of a truck or something, so it'll burn up anyway?
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10-20-2020, 08:10 AM | #4855 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Yep. It won't actually hit Earth, at worst it'll distintegrate in the atmosphere - and it has less than half a percent chance of even doing that, but it's not big enough to actually get through the atmosphere and impact the planet itself.
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10-20-2020, 08:23 AM | #4856 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Unless it's The Little Meteor That Could.
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10-20-2020, 08:29 AM | #4857 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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In 2020, I wouldn't bet against it.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
10-20-2020, 08:30 AM | #4858 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Well, sure, maybe in some other horrible year. But in the land of rainbows and unicorns that is 2020, there's no way it could destroy the earth. They probably didn't forget to carry the "1" when measuring how big it is. Or it's definitely not some freakish meteor that is shaped like, I dunno, a pencil and all we can see is the tip. And it's certainly not an interstellar weapon with a stealth mode deployed by a space-faring race that wants to eliminate humanity after we failed the "how to come together during a pandemic" test. SI
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10-20-2020, 08:31 AM | #4859 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
I've seen some indication in recent days that it might be more like the "anything for attention" part. I can't go so far as to run with "didn't believe what they were saying" cause I think some of them do believe some/all of it ... but whether they believe it or not seems less relevant to them than the attention part.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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10-20-2020, 08:38 AM | #4860 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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FWIW, I know a few people I would classify as QAnon; one might be more along the line of other conspiracy theorists. They definitely appear to fully believe what they're saying and they are of at least average if not higher intelligence. I think it's often overblown how different conspiracy theorists are from the rest of the population. They're really not - they just think differently and/or latched on to something for emotional reasons. Your basic ideological partisanship is different from this only in degree, and there are a lot of people who fall victim to it. It's happened to me before.
Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-20-2020 at 09:06 AM. |
10-20-2020, 09:04 AM | #4861 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Why in the world would Pelosi set a deadline for a stimulus bill this close to election. She is giving Republicans ammo to use in campaign ads.
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Quote:
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10-20-2020, 09:51 AM | #4862 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Green Bay, WI
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Quote:
"Look, if you chucklefucks actually want to get aid delivered before the election, it takes time to write the bills and get the language right." This isn't hostage-taking. This is "you have literally two weeks before election day. Do you want to do this? Then this is the deadline to actually GET IT DONE. There isn't time to get stimulus of that scope done properly otherwise." And I'd think people who are persuadable one way or the other are going to recognize that. It's not like this is Sept 1 or Aug 1 and she's saying this. |
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10-20-2020, 10:18 AM | #4863 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Right, like it would literally take 2 weeks to get the bill through the House and Senate. If it doesn't get decided now, it won't get done before the election - which, btw, is the reason Trump wants the bill done. So Pelosi is trying to get this passed.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
10-20-2020, 11:43 AM | #4864 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Just listened to Fox News a bit. The talking heads were complaining about the debate commission changing the rules. Then one started complaining about the moderators, saying they need people not in the main stream media, and 93% of media are dems and have biases. She said they should do 2 debates where one moderator is a lib journalist and the other a conservative. FFS the first moderator was from her own network. I can't even with these people.
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10-21-2020, 12:56 PM | #4865 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Here's a fun election map from 538 to play around with:
Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election | FiveThirtyEight |
10-21-2020, 01:49 PM | #4866 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Ohio and Georgia are back in the red column at 538, with Biden holding at 87%.
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10-21-2020, 01:56 PM | #4867 | |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Quote:
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10-21-2020, 02:03 PM | #4868 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Listening to the pod, it is interesting that all they say you really need to look at is Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If Biden wins Florida or North Carolina, then he has won. If he wins Arizona, then he has most likely won. Of course if does pull off Georgia or Ohio he has also definitely won, but the other three states are the most likely.
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10-21-2020, 02:32 PM | #4869 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
The post debate bump appears to be wearing off. Assuming nothing crazy happens, I think this tightens to about 7-8 points for Biden. Trump could completely change that if he bombs the next debate though. His best path to making this competitive is just to lay low and not be Trump for the final 12 days. |
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10-21-2020, 02:35 PM | #4870 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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10-21-2020, 03:07 PM | #4871 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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It's interesting how much the states are connected. If you do nothing on the map but give Pennsylvania to Trump, he's now at 74% likely to win the whole thing, because winning there indicates he's most likely to win Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, ect. as well, and you've eliminated all of the many Biden-win scenarios that include PA.
On the other hand, if you only given Biden Oregon, Washington, California, Hawaii, New England (aside from the 1 district in Maine), New York, D.C., New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico - he goes from 87% to 96%. When you take away even that slight possibility of Trump winning one of those, then it just becomes more likely that Biden wins everywhere else - and it also improves his odds of flipping someplace wacky like Texas. Throw in Minnesota and Michigan too, then he's 98%. Last edited by molson : 10-21-2020 at 03:09 PM. |
10-21-2020, 03:29 PM | #4872 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Some idiot in Maryland arrested for making a threat to kidnap and kill Biden and Harris:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/u...e=articleShare
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10-21-2020, 03:54 PM | #4873 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Whoa, crazy letter-writing doorbell cam guy went national??
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10-21-2020, 03:57 PM | #4874 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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10-21-2020, 04:00 PM | #4875 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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The guy is from Frederick; I saw it pop up as a local story a few days ago and it seemed like it was just some guy who got his shorts in a twist over a neighbor's Biden/Harris sign. Didn't think much of it/underestimated how loco he might be.
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10-21-2020, 04:05 PM | #4876 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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You have a link to the story? My neighbors Biden sign got stolen, police got involved, etc...
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10-21-2020, 04:19 PM | #4877 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Here's a non-paywalled version:
Man Arrested for Threats to Biden, Harris Left at Maryland Home With Yard Signs – NBC4 Washington I didn't read the original story a couple of weeks ago in-depth enough to quite understand the level of crazy.
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10-21-2020, 04:24 PM | #4878 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
Yeah this is why Nate Silver had Hillary at only like 79% to win instead of 99% like everyone else. He knew that certain states were correlated and a polling error in one likely meant a similar polling error in another.
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10-21-2020, 04:26 PM | #4879 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Crazy. Why is it we never see threats like this from the left?
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10-21-2020, 04:30 PM | #4880 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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It's so crazy that we will end up somewhere between "the election will be close and plunge us into months of the biggest crisis since the Civil War" or "They will call Florida or NC for Biden on election night, and that will be it."
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10-21-2020, 04:39 PM | #4881 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Maybe I will vote for Biden
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"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
10-21-2020, 04:44 PM | #4882 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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I like the BYEDON, haven't see that before.
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10-21-2020, 04:45 PM | #4883 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Things like this give me a bit of hope:
Before the Plague Came, I Had It Made Trump Strikes a Doubtful Note in Pennsylvania | The New Yorker If he's starting to make excuses, then maybe he will accept the results. I mean, he will never admit he lost. But going away while claiming that he really won but it was so crooked and he's doing something so great by not fighting it and anyone else would fight it, but he love America so much he won't fight it and stay tuned for OANN/Trump TV straight from Moscow coming up in a few months and no one is giving him credit and that's OK and maybe he'll run again in 2024 and we'll make sure that they can't cheat that time that would be fine by me. Just leave. Last edited by albionmoonlight : 10-21-2020 at 04:45 PM. |
10-21-2020, 04:47 PM | #4884 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Quote:
how is it only 5 fucking years for this type of shit. |
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10-21-2020, 05:08 PM | #4885 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
February polling with Biden/Trump wasn't that different than current polling.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-21-2020, 05:12 PM | #4886 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Obama spitting fire in his speech in Philadelphia.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
10-21-2020, 05:18 PM | #4887 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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This is amazing. No holds barred stuff. You know he has had 4 years to chew on all this and is loving the fact he knows he is crushing Trump right now and Trump is losing his mind. You can hear the joy in Obamas voice.
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10-21-2020, 05:23 PM | #4888 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Haven't seen the speech yet, but the timing is of course not lost on Obama. Little over 24 hours before the last debate. Just enough time for Trump to stew on it and perhaps get asked about it and go nutso on camera tomorrow night.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 10-21-2020 at 05:23 PM. |
10-21-2020, 05:23 PM | #4889 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Rough day for Rudy.
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10-21-2020, 05:23 PM | #4890 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
So basically this then. |
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10-21-2020, 05:30 PM | #4891 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
One of his handlers needs to take his phone from him because he’s going to be unhinged. |
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10-21-2020, 05:57 PM | #4892 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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I have not watched a second of any of the debates but I'm tempted to tune in at the beginning just to see how Trump reacts the first couple of times his mic is cut off.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
10-21-2020, 06:54 PM | #4893 |
assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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Got Christian/Evangelical family who are going to hold their nose and vote Republican because of the abortion issue? Tell them Phil Vischer says they don't have to.
What About Abortion? Should this one issue determine how Christians vote? - YouTube (If you're out of the loop, Vischer is the guy behind Veggie Tales, which makes him practically an evangelical icon. At least until people start watching his YouTube channel, then he'll probably get excommunicated.) |
10-21-2020, 07:03 PM | #4894 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Obama blistered Trump earlier today, and so far we have a reference to his inauguration crowd size and two "Barack Hussein Obama" call-outs during his NC rally.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 10-21-2020 at 07:03 PM. |
10-21-2020, 07:09 PM | #4895 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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10-22-2020, 10:53 AM | #4896 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Late last night I was taking a leisurely stroll through the 2016 election thread. (Someone else was browsing it too - always a little creepy when that happens).
A couple of things stood out. We all recognized in the last week then that race was getting closer and closer. You could feel the tension reading the posts. Also, while the national polling ended up being correct and within the margin of error, the state polling for Michigan and Pennsylvania (and maybe other states) was way, way off. Double-digit levels of off. Based on that state polling, there was so many posts sharing some sentiment like, "Trump has to win 2 of these 6 states, and that's just not happening" (Trump ended up winning 4 or 5 of those states). A lot of times Pennsylvania wasn't even included in those breakdowns because it was locked in for Clinton. Also, I think we tended to misunderstand the concept of 538's simulation model. We tracked the % likelihood of outcomes like we do now, but we were more likely to look at it as a basketball score rather than odds of something happening. When 538 had Clinton at 75% to win a state, and the then the last week it was down to 65%, it was still seen as a safe state for her as long as it didn't drop to 50% or below. She was still "winning" - 65% - 35%. But of course, that's not how probabilities work. Trump had a very strong 35% chance to win a state like that, and he did. Even now, I'm not sure we appreciate the substance of those probabilities. 538's 87% overall for Biden to win seems strong, but, 13% is a significant and real number. That's just someone missing a short field goal in the NFL, it happens all the time. I believe 538 had it at around 83% right before election day in 2016. We talk about whether they're "right" or "wrong", but they just compile the polls and thought that Trump had a 17% or so chance to win, which was a substantial chance even before you accounted for the polling errors in Michigan and Pennsylvania. 13% is also a very substantial chance, and the chance is much higher than that if there are polling errors in one or more key states. Last edited by molson : 10-22-2020 at 11:06 AM. |
10-22-2020, 11:02 AM | #4897 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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I agree with you molson, I don't think there's anyone that doesn't remember the surprise, whether you're a Trumper or not, of the Trump win. Certainly makes me and a bunch of people a whole lot more skeptical of calling things done this time around.
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10-22-2020, 11:13 AM | #4898 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I've been reading about how pollsters started picking up on Trump's chances through district level polling in the last two weeks before the election. Now, the district polling is, if anything, more favorable for Biden than national polling.
I'm going to predict that swing state margins will end up being pretty closely correlated to COVID hospitalizations from Oct 1 to the election. I'm very bullish on WI for this reason.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-22-2020, 11:13 AM | #4899 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Personally, I think the most likely outcome is that Trump loses the popular vote by a LOT more than he did last time, but the electoral vote still is very very close. People are turning out to vote against him in large numbers in places that are normally pretty red, and where they might not normally bother. Kentucky. Iowa. States that are maybe a little purple, but are safe Trump.
I think Pennsylvania and Michigan are going to be razor thin, recent polling notwithstanding, and the election is basically coming down to those 2 states.
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My listening habits Last edited by Butter : 10-22-2020 at 11:14 AM. |
10-22-2020, 11:30 AM | #4900 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
where do you get this thought |
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