2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Will the race end before Trump calls Cruz the Zodiac Killer?

If he does this from the podium prior to a 2nd convention vote I will likely pee my pants in excitement.

[Solecismic]

Looks like Indiana isn't terribly close. Trump is leading in every CD with returns so far. Most not very close. It would add up to 51-0-0 with two CDs to go.

Given the reports that he's expected to hold 42 pennyloopers on the first ballot, ABT is now relying on a slaughter in California, where Trump leads by 20+ in polling.

I think we're approaching 90% Trump for the nominee.

[SirFozzie]

I think we can call this one over on the R side. 95-98% sure, we'd need a total collapse for Trump to not make the goal, and God help us, if nothing he's done so far led to a collapse with Republican primary voters, nothing will.

[mckerney]

Ted Cruz drops out of presidential race - POLITICO

[cartman]

So that's why he brought on Fiorina. He needed someone with experience at laying off huge numbers of staff.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by cartman

So that's why he brought on Fiorina. He needed someone with experience at laying off huge numbers of staff.

ouch

[cuervo72]

The more I hear Cruz speak the more I think he sounds like a sleazy preacher.

[Dutch]

Next up, the battle of New York.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

The more I hear Cruz speak the more I think he sounds like a sleazy preacher.

How about a preacher's sleazy son? Either way...

[cuervo72]

Well yeah, that's certainly where he gets it from.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by cartman

So that's why he brought on Fiorina. He needed someone with experience at laying off huge numbers of staff.

Just to let you know, several of us are stealing this meme and posting it on facebook

[Thomkal]

Hey Ted Cruz, #LoveWins.

[JPhillips]

What's the over/under on days until Cruz endorses Trump?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What's the over/under on days until Cruz endorses Trump?

Hmm ... something in the 12-21 range maybe?

[Solecismic]

Current Standings:

Trump: 1014 pledged, 43 unpledged, 1057 total.
Cruz (withdrew): 550 pledged, 20 unpledged, 570 total.
Rubio (withdrew): 173 pledged.
Kasich: 154 pledged, 3 unpledged, 157 total.
Others: 16 pledged
Unbound: 54

Remaining Pledged: 445.

With Cruz withdrawing, Trump will reach 1,237 pledged easily. He now has 53% of the pledged delegates, a remarkable achievement when you consider there were 17 original candidates.

Kasich has indicated that once Trump reaches 1,237, he will withdraw. At this point, with one win in 42 contests to date, formal notice isn't really required.

Momentum is funny. At the start of this campaign, I thought there was no way Trump could win. All he had was name recognition and no organization in Iowa.

But it seemed every time someone else would gain momentum, Trump would find a weakness and deliver a crushing blow of some sort. Even in the end, Trump, the ultimate bully, managed to convince people that Cruz was the bad guy for trying to wrangle delegates.

Wherever Trump pointed, the media followed. Sure enough, Cruz wrangled in Colorado and convincingly won a voterless election. And in Arizona, he managed to keep the former governor, who had endorsed Trump, off of the ballot for delegate selection - in a state where Trump had won all 58 delegates. Backroom politics where it seemed like overkill. In this day and age, it played right into the bully's narrative.

Jeb! was the early establishment choice. Trump needled him about being low energy and it stuck. Bush clearly didn't want to do this, but it took Trump to take him and his record fund-raising out. Carson gained popularity and Trump just made fun of him for his assertions of a rough childhood. Yes, they were absurd assertions, but it took Trump's clowning references to get the media focused.

Then Rubio became the establishment choice. He was starting to gain that air of inevitability before Christie nailed him right on the eve of New Hampshire. Still, he wasn't done until Trump took him out of his game and he responded with his Borscht-Belt week of infamy.

Now he has to pivot to the general. In most cases, this is a difficult pivot because policy statements have to change to appeal to independent voters. Trump doesn't have real policy statements. He's just going to build a wall and take on China in trade and everything will be great. So that part is easy for him. The hard part is that his negatives are incredibly high.

I don't know how this is going to resolve. I think Hillary has an excellent chance of winning, but, then again, I thought Trump couldn't possibly win. All I can say for certain is that this is going to be one ugly summer in politics.

[NobodyHere]

So hslf this country thinks that Trump has what it takes to be president, for realz?

[SackAttack]

50% of some percentage of 40%, really.

We'll see how much of the rest of that 40% comes home to him in the general.

[SirFozzie]

I think this quote sums up the three "legs" of the party, and how this could be a disaster of unique proportions for the GOP.

(link to full article: Donald Trump and the GOP's crisis - Business Insider )

But do not hold your breath for any faction of the Republican Party to take that lesson from their impending, devastating loss. Instead, three different factions will each have their own story of why Republicans lost the 2016 election — and each of them will be wrong.

Ted Cruz and his allies will say that the loss was the predictable result of failure to nominate a true conservative. Faced with two essentially similar candidates like Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, conservatives chose to stay home. To win in 2020, they will say, Republicans must abandon moderation and the desire for "deals" and nominate a stalwart, no-compromise conservative like Cruz.

Establishment Republicans will say the problem is that the party let the clowns take over, and must return power to the adults in the room like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, instead of toxic candidates like Trump and Cruz. They will not address the problem that orthodox Republican policy prescriptions are unconvincing even to voters in the Republican primary, let alone the general electorate.

Trump and his fans will say that the Republican establishment sabotaged Trump by withholding their support, hoping they could quash his insurgency by manufacturing a wide loss to Hillary Clinton. They will not go away quietly.

The GOP had a decent post-mortem of 2012 and identified areas they needed to improve on. But they decided to double down, and it's led to the situation we have here.

I identify as center-left, but what I'm afraid of is that the left of the left wing is going to think this is a big chance to "Fundamentally change America", and move it hard left. Which means of course, throw out any "squishies" that might be a DINO (Democrat in Name Only).

Or in short, do the exact same fucking thing that the GOP is doing, but replace JonInMiddleGA with "BernieinMiddleVT" (and Jon and I know where each other stand, so I think he knows that it's not meant as a slam as him, just an acknowledgement of where we stand politically).

I guess you could call me an incrementalist. I think the last eight years have been pretty good, both on a personal level (I think it's safe to say that being out of work for 18 months, being on MassHealth has pretty much saved my life with my health problems), and a national level (The economy is in much better shape then we were when we were pulling ourselves out of the ditch in 2009).

Do I wish we could do more? Sure. But guess what, this isn't a fairy tale with some magic wand and everything becomes better. Both sides are forgetting the story of the Tortoise and the Hare.. they just want the Hare to strap on a rocket-pack.

The right of the right wing wants an Ayn Randian paradise, criminalize abortion and gays, the ability to shoot illegal immigrants.. the left of the left wing wants to basically put everyone making six figures or more up against a wall and full on European Socialism. And anyone who doesn't promise either will be eaten by the folks out on the wings, while most of the people in the middle just bow their heads and go "Do we really have to put up with all this shit?" And the answer is yup, until the center realizes that if they got just as excited about politics as the Right-of-Right Wing and Left-of-Left Wing does, we could actually get shit done. Which means never, of course, but it's the state we're in.

(Sorry for the epic post, I couldn't sleep tonight, and couldn't seem to stop typing)

[flere-imsaho]

I have to admit, I didn't think the GOP primary would be sewn up before the Democratic primary. Sure, Clinton may still get the required delegates before Trump, but the reality is that the GOP's done with their process now.

Up until yesterday there was still some sense for Kasich to be in the race. But now since there won't be a contested convention, the longer he stays in the more damage he's going to do to his hopes the next time. It'll be interesting to see what he does now.


Also, my bet on Trump's VP pick is some retired general. It just makes too much sense. Christie's already been promised AG, I would guess. Or even SCOTUS, so help us god.

[JPhillips]

[Thomkal]

Back when the election season started, I would have bet any amount of money that Trump would not be the Republican "winner" and Cruz the last challenger to him (Kasich doesn't really count). Now I keep seeing all these stories about how badly Trump is going to lose to Clinton/Sanders...and while I hope its true, given how the Republican nomination went, I can't take anything for granted like they are in the general. Because they were all wrong about Trump.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

The right of the right wing wants an Ayn Randian paradise, criminalize abortion and gays, the ability to shoot illegal immigrants.. )

You may want to reread Ayn Rand...

[flere-imsaho]

I took that as "an Randian paradise and criminalization of abortion & gays, and the right to shoot illegal immigrants."

[panerd]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I took that as "an Randian paradise and criminalization of abortion & gays, and the right to shoot illegal immigrants."

Ok I guess that makes more sense. Though I still find the attempts for people to say Ayn Rand represents any of the modern GOP laughable. (I don't find her philosophy a good one to live by necessarily but she was certainly against big government in every way which in reality the GOP is not at all)

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by panerd

Though I still find the attempts for people to say Ayn Rand represents any of the modern GOP laughable.

The current Speaker of the House of Representatives is an avowed Rand devotee, which is reflected both in his policy proposals and personal statements.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Back when the election season started, I would have bet any amount of money that Trump would not be the Republican "winner" and Cruz the last challenger to him (Kasich doesn't really count). Now I keep seeing all these stories about how badly Trump is going to lose to Clinton/Sanders...and while I hope its true, given how the Republican nomination went, I can't take anything for granted like they are in the general. Because they were all wrong about Trump.

There's plenty of dirty laundry on both these individuals and the mud is going to fly by the ton-load. Anyone who writes off either of these candidates has no foresight. It's going to be ugly and very unpredictable. Both of them are better off just jumping into the trenches and slugging it out. Any attempt by either of them to take the high road will be met with roaring laughter by the general electorate.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by panerd

Though I still find the attempts for people to say Ayn Rand represents any of the modern GOP laughable.

Look next door to you in Kansas.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The current Speaker of the House of Representatives is an avowed Rand devotee, which is reflected both in his policy proposals and personal statements.

Yeah but its one thing to say my favorite book is Atlas Shrugged and another to actually follow through with it. I would say it would be impossible to work for the government and follow Ayn Rand. (Ron Paul would not even qualify) You can definitely pick and choose things that he voted against and say that is "Randian" but in the end while Paul Ryan looks "small government" compared to Obama and Clinton compared to reality he loves spending our money on the military and other pet projects just as much as the rest of them.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

There's plenty of dirty laundry on both these individuals and the mud is going to fly by the ton-load. Anyone who writes off either of these candidates has no foresight. It's going to be ugly and very unpredictable. Both of them are better off just jumping into the trenches and slugging it out. Any attempt by either of them to take the high road will be met with roaring laughter by the general electorate.

Add in the general electorate actually belieiving anything Trump says or thinking he is different than Hilary.

[JPhillips]

From one of the National Review writers:

Donald Trump is unfit to be president. He’s a braggart and a liar. And a serial adulterer. He’s behaved shamefully during the primary campaign. He wouldn’t recognize the Constitution if he tripped over it in the street. He doesn’t know even the Cliff Notes version of any policy issue. The idea that the party of Lincoln and Reagan, Coolidge and Eisenhower, Justice Harlan and Senator Taft has nominated Trump is appalling.

And I’m going to vote for him anyway.

[mckerney]

New Kasich add today with a special Star Wars Day them.

Our Only Hope#MayThe4thBeWithYou #StarWarsDayhttps://t.co/Bi2qNGw2oM

— John Kasich (@JohnKasich) May 4, 2016

[Thomkal]

cute ad I guess. but really what's the point of it? You know you are going to lose at this point-what are the Cruz supporters suddenly going to turn to you as last man standing? Unlikely.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

(and Jon and I know where each other stand, so I think he knows that it's not meant as a slam as him, just an acknowledgement of where we stand politically).

We're good, carry on.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

From one of the National Review writers:

The irony of that blurb is that, apparently, now someone from NR is going to vote for Trump while I sit out the race in November.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The irony of that blurb is that, apparently, now someone from NR is going to vote for Trump while I sit out the race in November.

Will you vote for down-ballot candidates, or sit out the vote entirely?

[stevew]

So when guys like Cruz and Rubio and Bernie and Kasich spend months campaigning, do they still draw salaries from their actual jobs? Would be nice if there were some rules put in place where if someone forms a presidential campaign committee, they have 60-90 days to resign their office cause they obviously aren't really doing the job they are paid for.

[Flasch186]

:50 minutes later Kasich suspends campaign

[NobodyHere]

We're doomed

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Will you vote for down-ballot candidates, or sit out the vote entirely?

I'll be there for the down-ballot, well, assuming there's actually a contested race in my precinct somewhere. Off the top of my head right now I can't think of one.

Okay, a few minutes of Googling & I found the sample ballots for our upcoming May (non-presidential) primary.

Looks like there's a U.S. Senate race, Isaakson's seat.
That's how competitive it appears to be: I didn't even realize it was in play.

Otherwise, my local county commission seat is settled in the GOP primary, no (D) running. Every other local race this year will be settled in the (D) primary, no (R) running for district attorney, sheriff, tax commissioner, clerk of court or coroner. (4 of those 5 are uncontested incumbents on the D side)

No Ds running in my state house or state senate race.

Basically I'd be literally going to vote for Senate, doesn't appear anything else will be a contested race

[Kodos]

Republicans actually chose Trump. Amazing.

[spleen1015]

I think it is amazing but a good amazing.

The people are speaking. They are tired of career politicians not giving 2 shits about them and only filling their own pockets.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Sigh. Looks like for the 6th presidential election in a row, I will be voting for neither R or D. As much as I could not tolerate previous match ups, it's incredible to me that there is a much much worse matchup this year.

But as usual, I take a clear interest in state and local offices and issues - where the real and impactful changes happen.

Bucc posted this in the video games thread, so I thought I'd help him out.

[Buccaneer]

Thank you, that's what I get doing this on a phone.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'd love to gloat over how early I identified the seriousness of Trump's chances compared to the rest of the FOFC but, honestly, I don't have much of a record for picking winning horses so I can't really say too much about that with a straight face.

[EagleFan]

A sad day for the country.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Bucc posted this in the video games thread, so I thought I'd help him out.

What I find amazing is that second term Reagan vs. Dukakis was the last "worthy" match up

Originally Posted by JPhillips

From one of the National Review writers:
The idea that the party of Lincoln and Reagan, Coolidge and Eisenhower, Justice Harlan and Senator Taft has nominated Trump is appalling.

Coolidge!! He is a great Republican model?! If so, mental illness must literally be a prerequisite to being a great president.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by stevew

So when guys like Cruz and Rubio and Bernie and Kasich spend months campaigning, do they still draw salaries from their actual jobs? Would be nice if there were some rules put in place where if someone forms a presidential campaign committee, they have 60-90 days to resign their office cause they obviously aren't really doing the job they are paid for.

Yes, they still draw salaries.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'd love to gloat over how early I identified the seriousness of Trump's chances compared to the rest of the FOFC but, honestly, I don't have much of a record for picking winning horses so I can't really say too much about that with a straight face.

The first few pages of this thread are absolutely worth a read. I don't mean that as a slam on people - goodness knows I've made some terrible predictions myself, but the ways in which some of our guesses were completely right or complete wrong is very entertaining.

[molson]

I wonder if this will encourage more celebrities to run for president in the future.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if this will encourage more celebrities to run for president in the future.

I remember what a friend from Munich told me after Schwarzenegger won the Governor's race in California: "Be very careful, we elected an Austrian once".