POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[JPhillips]

I know it's unlikely that NV will actually be the state that wins it for Clinton, but the Harry Reid machine has been pretty damn impressive ever since 2008.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Donald Trump really thought he could insult Latinos and we'd just stand there and take it. Please, we are not @ChrisChristie.

— Gabe Ortíz (@TUSK81) November 5, 2016

[stevew]

Right wing media making far too much of a big deal over Jay Z dropping a few F bombs and N Words.

[Brian Swartz]

Looks like Trump's gains have definitely stalled at least the last day or two, which really should do it barring something quite unusual. Interestingly that isn't the case in the Senate where it's a virtual coin-flip right now; most likely scenario is a 50-50 split with Kaine breaking the tie as VP.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Part of it is due to a less active board, but we also had more of a debate in 2008 because there were more people on McCain's side.

Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.

I would put this at the top of the list.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

There are just so many better ways to impact an election than voter fraud. Maybe for small, low-level elections it's a decent tactic to swing a few votes and it's surely more of an issue when it comes to ballot petitions where it's just signatures, but actual voting in elections? Meh, the juice isn't worth the squeeze especially for a big election.

This. If people actually sat back and thought it through, they'd realize how ridiculous these claims are, which is backed up by the fact that there's been no cases of widespread voter fraud.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Let's not get too carried away with "learning" from early voting turnout.

Exactly. Who remembers 2004? Of course that was more the exit polls showing a Kerry lead (as opposed to early voting), but still. It's not over until the Supreme Court picks a winner.

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just noticed the Obama vs McCain thread has more than twice the posts of this POTUS 2016. Wonder why but assume the changing demographics of this board.

Originally Posted by mckerney

The board isn't nearly as active as it was 8 year ago.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too.

All of this. Back in 2008 there were a number of us happy to go back-and-forth for pages on various topics. Some of those folks aren't here anymore. A lot of us are busier than we were then. And a lot of the arguments are simply played out. And this hasn't been an election about ideas, anyway (not that I thought 2008 was, at the time, but....)

[Ben E Lou]

Secret service removes Trump from a rally in Reno. Suspect tackled to the ground by SWAT and secret service. Unconfirmed reports that he had a gun.

[EagleFan]

Another Hillary sponsored attack. At least I assume that is how the media will spin it... they would be quick to assume that if the same thing happened with a Hillary event that it was a pro-Trump sanctioned attack so they MUST use the same logic when it is reversed...right...

(disclaimer: I hate them both and wouldn't waste a second being upset if both of them were eliminated as they are both worthless)

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Trump took a meaningful drop on PredictIt between Thursday and Saturday. He was up in the 33-36 range across a few parallel markets, but this morning is now selling at 28-29. That's a big move considering there wasn't really an accompanying "event" to speak of.

There were some Friday morning polls that looked good for Ds, but it wasn't anything clear or long-lasting. That might be the most unexpected move I've seen in the markets this entire cycle.

My best guess is it's just a correction - that he sort of outkicked his own coverage a bit with a week or so of relative calm (from the candidate himself), and that things just regressed to the mean a bit.

I had bids in to buy D/HRC/woman/Kaine at 63c, but the market never got to that point, and I obviously missed the big money-making opportunity there. I had the right idea, but wasn't aggressive enough (or was too greedy, if you prefer).

Markets continue to drop Trump...down to 24-27c after another day of decline. Same speculation about reasons behind it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Another Hillary sponsored attack. At least I assume that is how the media will spin it... they would be quick to assume that if the same thing happened with a Hillary event that it was a pro-Trump sanctioned attack so they MUST use the same logic when it is reversed...right...

(disclaimer: I hate them both and wouldn't waste a second being upset if both of them were eliminated as they are both worthless)

If you find it so objectionable, don't do it.

[Ryche]

Will be interesting to see what exactly transpired. No permit is required in Nevada to open carry.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Will be interesting to see what exactly transpired. No permit is required in Nevada to open carry.

Senior sources tell @ABC the threat escalated when someone shouted gun at Trump rally. Source with direct knowledge says no weapon found

— John Santucci (@JTSantucci) November 6, 2016

Reno PD tell @ABC told at time was "medical incident" that resulted in shoving & commotion. More details to come https://t.co/JLShxwJJ2s

— John Santucci (@JTSantucci) November 6, 2016

A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."

— Marc Ambinder (@marcambinder) November 6, 2016

[JonInMiddleGA]

Right, left, outer space, whatever ... some props for the Secret Service details of both major candidates this year. It can NOT have been an easy gig.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Sidebar here, but kinda related so I'll throw it out:

Twice in the past hour people have mentioned to me that Monday is a day with particularly high security concerns (i.e terrorist type stuff).

I hadn't heard a word of that previously, though I've been in a vaccuum more than usual for several days due to a sudden bout of work.

Is this info "a thing", and I'm just horribly out of the loop, or are ya'll wondering wth I'm talking about?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sidebar here, but kinda related so I'll throw it out:

Twice in the past hour people have mentioned to me that Monday is a day with particularly high security concerns (i.e terrorist type stuff).

I hadn't heard a word of that previously, though I've been in a vaccuum more than usual for several days due to a sudden bout of work.

Is this info "a thing", and I'm just horribly out of the loop, or are ya'll wondering wth I'm talking about?

US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.

Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday - CBS News

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by mckerney

US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.

Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday - CBS News

Fair enough. I'll consider that definitive enough to declare myself vacuum brained & unaware.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Senior sources tell @ABC the threat escalated when someone shouted gun at Trump rally. Source with direct knowledge says no weapon found

— John Santucci (@JTSantucci) November 6, 2016

Reno PD tell @ABC told at time was "medical incident" that resulted in shoving & commotion. More details to come https://t.co/JLShxwJJ2s

— John Santucci (@JTSantucci) November 6, 2016

A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."

— Marc Ambinder (@marcambinder) November 6, 2016

http://https://mobile.twitter.com/ma...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Yeah, just a misunderstanding, surprised there haven't been more to this point.

[Jas_lov]

Even if he did have a gun he would just be exercising his 2nd amendment rights. No need to panic.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Even if he did have a gun he would just be exercising his 2nd amendment rights. No need to panic.

Raising one in the general direction of a presidential candidate is likely a bad idea. Reckless conduct if nothing else.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by mckerney

US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th.

Oh great, I'm travelling so I guess I'll leave 30-40 min earlier.

[Brian Swartz]

Latest Senate projection(from 538): 50.2% Dem control, 49.8% GOP. That's ... pretty close.

[Brian Swartz]

Thought I'd post this as well since it's gotten some discussion around here, for those interested in the projects. This is Nate Silver on why the uncertainty is so high in his model this time around:

Originally Posted by NateSilver, fivethirtyeight.com

In some ways, our fundamental hypothesis about this campaign is that uncertainty is high, with both a narrow Trump win and a more robust Clinton win — in the mid-to-high single digits — remaining entirely plausible outcomes. The polls-plus model, which gives Trump a 36 percent chance, is basically the same one that gave Mitt Romney just a 9 percent chance on the eve of the 2012 election, so it isn’t inherently so cautious. But the still-high number of voters not committed to either Trump or Clinton — about 13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average — contributes substantially to uncertainty.

So does the unusually broad swing-state map, with the outcome in at least a dozen states still in some doubt. And it’s important to remember that the outcomes in each state are correlated with one another, so that if Clinton underperforms her polls in Wisconsin (for instance), she’ll probably also do so in Minnesota. Forecasts that don’t account for these correlations are liable to be overconfident about the outcome. It isn’t hard to find examples of candidates who systematically beat their polls in almost every competitive state, as President Obama did in 2012 and as Republican candidates for governor and senator did in 2014.

And that’s before accounting for some of the factors that the model doesn’t consider: the disagreement in the polls, the unusual nature of Trump’s candidacy and the demographic changes it is producing, Clinton’s superior turnout operation, the possibility of “shy Trump” voters, the fact that the news cycle is still somewhat fluid headed into the final weekend, the declining response rates to polls, and the substantial number of high-profile polling misses around the world over the past few years. We think this is a good year for a forecast that calls for more caution and prudence.

[RainMaker]

Thought this was a good read. Basically Silver points out that Hillary likely has better odds than his formula says. Tough to gauge results with early voters being so high.

https://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/fiv...u-nate-silver/

[mckerney]

Austyn Crites says
1. I held up Republicans against Trump sign.
2. I was kicked and choked.
3. Someone shouted gun.
4. I was saved by cops.

— James Cook (@BBCJamesCook) November 6, 2016

Trump had asked if he was a plant paid by Clinton and told the crowd to, "take him out."

[Chief Rum]

NYPD Weinergate blah blah blah stupid

I don't post this because I buy anything this article says (from Breitbart...of course), but I simply had to post it for the ridiculous UIC herein.

First of all, Weinergate? Is that really a thing they're calling this now?

And, oh yea, sex island.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Austyn Crites says
1. I held up Republicans against Trump sign.
2. I was kicked and choked.
3. Someone shouted gun.
4. I was saved by cops.

— James Cook (@BBCJamesCook) November 6, 2016

Trump had asked if he was a plant paid by Clinton and told the crowd to, "take him out."

It's easy to believe he was a paid plant, but if so I wouldn't want to put money on whose plant he was.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It's easy to believe he was a paid plant, but if so I wouldn't want to put money on whose plant he was.

He's been a registered Republican since 2011. That's a pretty long con to pull.

Regardless, this is a dumb story. Looks like someone thought he had a weapon and yelled "Gun" (the same people who want open carry ironically). This caused the secret service and others to panic. He was rushed out and sent on his way.

[Thomkal]

Trump's campaign cancelled a rally to be held in Green Bay today, which I thought was a bit odd given their need to turn the state to him, and then I heard the reason why...the Packers are playing at the same time as the rally. Which if they had a better ground game, they probably would not schedule one at all, or at a better day/time for them.

[Jas_lov]

The final DM Register poll has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 46-39 so that looks like the best bet for a Trump flip. Dems have a 42K lead in early voting with about 40% of the vote in but that is down from the 63K lead they had in 2012.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Trump's campaign cancelled a rally to be held in Green Bay today, which I thought was a bit odd given their need to turn the state to him, and then I heard the reason why...the Packers are playing at the same time as the rally. Which if they had a better ground game, they probably would not schedule one at all, or at a better day/time for them.

Instead he's going to Minnesota, where he has even less chance than he does in Wisconsin, and he'll be there during the Vikings game.

[Brian Swartz]

Interesting mailer the other day from the Michigan Republican Party. The only affirmative thing it says is 'Be a Voter'. Nothing positive about Trump; in fact he is nowhere mentioned or pictured, nor is Pence. You literally couldn't tell from it who the 2016 Presidential Candidate of their party is. It has only two basic messages: go vote GOP and anti-Clinton stuff. Darndest thing I've ever seen, but perhaps a reflection of the political environment we are in.

[mckerney]

They're not the only ones leaving Trump off campaign materials.

Minnesota's Trump snub: 3rd District Republicans don't include presidential nominee on sample ballots | MinnPost

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Instead he's going to Minnesota, where he has even less chance than he does in Wisconsin, and he'll be there during the Vikings game.

shocking! They seem to think they have a chance in Minn according to their own polls, only have Clinton ahead by 3, which are probably as faulty as their ground game.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

They're not the only ones leaving Trump off campaign materials.

Minnesota's Trump snub: 3rd District Republicans don't include presidential nominee on sample ballots | MinnPost

Makes me wonder which Republican will get the most write-in votes. I've seen McCain and now Rubio mentioned. Probably Kasich gets some too.

[Zinto]

FBI Dir just informed us "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Sec Clinton"

— Jason Chaffetz (@jasoninthehouse) November 6, 2016

[mckerney]

Trump is bragging about winning a high school poll in Minnesota, so I guess that explains why he came here.

[mckerney]

Anti-Defamation League says Trump's closing ad invokes anti-Semitic tropes https://t.co/sNdRa3q5Bh pic.twitter.com/lh7SCp4dAl

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 6, 2016

Anti-Semitism from a campaign run by Steve Bannon, a man who didn't want his kids to go to a school because he thought too many Jews attended? I can't believe it.

[JPhillips]

How crazy has PC culture become when you can't even suggest that Jews are controlling the media and global finance?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

How crazy has PC culture become when you can't even suggest that Jews are controlling the media and global finance?

You can't even complain about the (((global elites))) without SJWs getting outraged these days.

[Ben E Lou]

Take THIS, PC Culture. New ad released today will SHUT DOWN THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN.

[NobodyHere]

The FBI is saying the new Clinton email scandal is a nothingburger. Will anyone care?

[cuervo72]

Nope. You either believed it was a nothingburger to begin with, or you believe that Comey either caved to political pressure (like Newt is already saying) or was bought off.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Nope. You either believed it was a nothingburger to begin with, or you believe that Comey either caved to political pressure (like Newt is already saying) or was bought off.

Pretty much this.

The only people I'm inclined to mock a bit are those who idiotically believed that anything was going to land on HRC from this round. The (former?) Mrs. Weiner? Maybe. But Hils? That was a less than zero chance. It didn't even make much sense to expect it would.

[RainMaker]

Clinton up to -640 (from -400 this morning) at my Sportsbook.

[EagleFan]

She is obviously above the law, that is no surprise to anyone. Hopefully karma will show up soon.

[cuervo72]

What I don't get with this idea is where this source of untouchable power came about. Yes, the Clintons are good at networking, good at playing the political game, and from what her fans say, good at listening (and remembering). But the insidiousness? It's not like these two came from anything, especially Bill. He's a hick from Arkansas! It's not like they still have a huge power base or political machine set up there, unlike politicians who have been entrenched in a location forever (Reid? The Daley family?) I don't think they set anything up in NY. Washington sure, but it's not as if there aren't red power bases there. And they have TONS of enemies. Even within the party it wasn't enough to hold off an unknown one-term Senator. I don't get where this ability to bribe everybody comes from.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

She is obviously above the law, that is no surprise to anyone. Hopefully karma will show up soon.

it would have but your karma is currently being run over by your dogma. :P

[SirFozzie]

BTW, this is my old field of work (somewhat) so I can explain how it perhaps was done so quickly.

People are right that it would be impossible to review tens of thousands of emails one at a time to determine their National Security level and possible information within.

They wouldn't need to for a vast majority of them.

Using either a "hash" of the message or an email-id of the messages discovered on the device used by Huma Abedin (and in the possession of Anthony Dickhead, I mean, Weiner). they can compare it to emails already reviewed as part of the email server investigation. If the hash/ID already matches, they know they don't have to review it.

That would DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of emails that they needed to check to go through this investigation.

The company I worked for (EMC, now part of Dell) sold huge data storage boxes for this kind of thing, under that kind of principle, where if you have a amount of the same file saved across different locations (say your sales database), you just need one copy, with pointers to it from the other places, so all you have to do is track what's CHANGED, not what's the same. Then, during off hours, you merge the changes into the main file, and you're ready for the next day (that way, if you have a disk failure or what have you, you only have to rollback a small amount of changes, which are then done from recent backup)

edit: If you want to read more about point in time copies, and the like, here. Fair warning, it MAY melt your brain https://www.emc.com/collateral/softw...nwldgbk-wp.pdf

[RainMaker]

It's crazy that I think just about any other Republican candidate could have beat Clinton in this election. The GOP picked the one guy who couldn't.