2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Solecismic]

Preview for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Primaries

Standings

Pledged: Trump 847, Cruz 547, Kasich 149, Other Pledged 189, Unpledged 123. This total considers delegates unpledged if they legally can vote for whomever they want on the first ballot. This week, when we learn a tiny bit more about Pennsylvania, I'll try and include those assessments.

Remaining: 617

Magic Number: Trump 390

Today's Contests

Connecticut (28 delegates). Trump +27 in RCP Average. If he reaches 50%, it's WTA. Otherwise, it's proportional, and there's a 20% threshold and 5 districts with 3 delegates each.

Delaware (16). Trump +37 in one poll last week. WTA.

Maryland (38). Trump +21 RCP. There are 8 districts with 3 WTA delegates and 14 WTA at-large delegates.

Pennsylvania (71). Trump +22 RCP. There are 14 at-large WTA delegates and 57 individually-elected Loophole delegates who may or may not consider themselves pledged and that information is not on the ballot. So figuring this out is a nightmare.

Rhode Island (19). Trump +29 RCP. Proportional, with 10% threshold.

All contests are closed to non-party members except Rhode Island, which allows independents as well.

Delegates on the line today: 115 (172 including the loopers)

Expected Haul: Trump 111, Kasich 4.

[digamma]

This should disqualify a person from holding public office.

Ted Cruz Desecrates Classic Movie Scene By Calling Hoop a "Basketball Ring"

[SirFozzie]

538 had an interesting thing on the "Loophole delegates" in Pennsylvania. If things stay the way they are, Trump is a LOT closer to the nomination then we think.

While Trump will win all 17 of Pennsylvania’s statewide delegates, the state will also send an additional 54 unbound delegates to the national convention. These delegates — three from each congressional district — were listed on today’s ballots without any indication of which candidate they might support. Many, however, have said publicly how they intend to vote at the convention (though they are free to change their minds). Below are the top three delegates right now in the districts that have reported results so far, along with how they’ve said they will vote. This list may change as more results come in. Many of the delegates have said they will back the winner of their district which, in many (if not all) cases will be Trump.

DISTRICT DELEGATE PERCENTAGE STATED PREFERENCE
1 Vogler, Christopher M 37.42% Uncommitted
1 Hackett, David 31.75 District Winner
1 Kaufer, Seth W 30.83 Uncommitted
2 Havey, Elizabeth 29.30 District Winner
2 Tucker, Calvin R 29.16 Uncommitted
2 Cohen, Aaron J 25.82 Uncommitted
3 English, Philip S 17.66 Uncommitted
3 Ryan, Carol Lynne 11.27 Trump
3 Yates, Robert J. 11.14 District Winner
4 Sacco, Joseph A 13.38 Trump
4 Jansen, Matthew R 11.40 Trump
4 Scaringi, Marc Anthony 10.90 Trump
5 Klein, James Feuer 16.72 Trump
5 Mcclure, C Arnold 13.72 Trump
5 Khare, Ash 12.84 District Winner
6 Costello, Ryan A 25.32 District Winner
6 Lightcap, Vicki 14.27 District Winner
6 Buckwalter, Wayne 14.08 Trump
7 Puppio, Michael V 25.86 District Winner
7 Willert, Robert J. 24.10 Unknown
7 Miller, Joan M 23.42 District Winner
8 Worthington, Samuel James Jr 18.74 District Winner
8 Casper, Barry Robert 17.07 District Winner
8 Quinn, Marguerite C 14.50 Unknown
9 Shuster, William F 19.34 District Winner
9 Ward, Judith F 16.31 District Winner
9 Taylor, Debra D 13.45 Trump
10 Sides, Carol D 13.99 Unknown
10 Scavello, Mario Michael 10.04 District Winner
10 Pickett, Tina 9.44 District Winner
11 Morelli, Richard 16.28 Trump
11 Mcelwee, David J 12.68 Trump
11 Shecktor, Andrew 9.25 Trump
12 Steigerwalt, George F 10.80 Cruz
12 Vasilko, James J 9.69 Trump
12 Morrill, Monica 9.25 Trump
13 Ellis, Thomas Jay 17.29 District Winner
13 Cox, Gilbert W Jr 15.86 Unknown
13 Casper, Lauren Elizabeth 14.51 District Winner
14 Meloy, Mary A 35.65 Uncommitted
14 Devanney, Michael 34.78 Uncommitted
14 Linton, Cameron S 29.57 Kasich
16 Brubaker, Douglas W 22.86 Cruz
16 Denlinger, Gordon Ray 22.74 Uncommitted
16 Dumeyer, David M 17.43 District Winner
17 Villano, Teresa Lynette 18.50 Trump
17 Bonkoski, Carolyn L 17.79 Trump
17 Snover, Gloria Lee 15.10 District Winner
18 Means, Sue Ann 13.39 Cruz
18 Deplato, Justin Phd 13.13 Trump
18 Petrarca, John Thomas 12.94 District Winner

[Solecismic]

I went to various web sites and tried to figure out the 54 Pennsylvania delegates.

30 were won by delegates touted on Trump's web site.
14 were won by delegates touted on the never-Trump web site.
10 were won by delegates who have set up gift registries at Bribeme.com.

[Solecismic]

A coup for the Trump campaign:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politi...ada/index.html

I didn't much appreciate her appearance on Game of Thrones Sunday night.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I went to various web sites and tried to figure out the 54 Pennsylvania delegates.

30 were won by delegates touted on Trump's web site.
14 were won by delegates touted on the never-Trump web site.
10 were won by delegates who have set up gift registries at Bribeme.com.

[Solecismic]

Where we are today...

Pledged Delegates:

Trump 956, Cruz 551, Kasich 154, Others 189.

For the first time, Trump owns the majority of the pledged delegates.

Unpledged Delegates:

Cruz 11, Trump 1, Unannounced 108.

The 54 Pennyloopers are included in the total of 108. It's possible more than 30 of them have indicated they will vote for Trump on the first ballot.

Trump's Magic Number: 281 pledged delegates.
Remaining Contests: 502 delegates that can be pledged. Trump needs 56.0% of that total for the nomination.

However, today marks the end of the part of the primary where the geography favored Trump. The question now is whether the momentum Trump won in the last two weeks, coupled with what seems like national fallout from Cruz's bragging about working the various conventions to secure delegates, has changed the landscape so much that Trump wins.

What to watch...

Next Tuesday: Indiana.

Indiana has 57 delegates. 30 are given to the statewide winner and each of 9 congressional districts has 3 WTA delegates. Typically, a state winner will pick up a 48-9 or a 51-6 victory this way. Trump leads +6 in the RCP average, but is only polling at about 40%. Cruz is a solid second and keep in mind that Cruz's best performance to date, outside of Texas, was in nearby Wisconsin. There might be a deal in place for Kasich to help Cruz here, but it's not a strong deal. There is no reason, given the WTA setup, for Kasich to do anything other than help Cruz. This is an open primary and a Trump win probably gets him over the 50% chance threshold of winning outright. A loss, however, would hurt badly.

The following Tuesday: Nebraska and West Virginia.

West Virginia is odd. Delegates are pledged and identified, but they are elected individually, mostly state-wide. Organization is important. But if there's a state inclined to like Trump's populism, he might hit 70% here.

Nebraska is a closed winner-take-all primary right in the heart of where Cruz has been strongest. So watch Nebraska only if it seems Trump has a chance. if he does, it's a sign that Cruz is mortally wounded.

After that, we pretty much wait for California in June, which has 172 delegates, 159 of which are in winner-take-all congressional districts. This is a crazy challenge for a campaign and Trump is +17 in the RCP average.

[Dutch]

After that, we pretty much wait for California in June

We really need to condense the format....this is taking forever. I just want to rip the Band-Aid off at this point and be done with it.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Dutch

We really need to condense the format....this is taking forever. I just want to rip the Band-Aid off at this point and be done with it.

One vote, ranked choice, nationwide, ballot consists of any candidate able to deliver the signatures of 100,000 eligible voters to the FEC by the last business day in August (to give sufficient time to a) vet signatures and b) develop ballots).

[Dutch]

Agreed, this should not take longer than the NHL playoffs.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Agreed, this should not take longer than the NHL playoffs.

This is taking longer than the NHL regular season. The 1st debate was in what, October?

[Dutch]

Well, it definitely should be shorter than the entire season.

[digamma]

So, at this point, what is the Cruz convention pitch? I know there are some variables, namely how well he does in California and Indiana, but let's assume that both are pretty close to 50-50 propositions and Trump comes in somewhere just short of 1237.

"Hey, I know I'm really unpopular in most of the swing states, but I was really good at winning back up delegates at state conventions."

"Hey, I'm really good at coming in second! And there are only two contenders in the general election!"

"We can toss this spherical object into the basketball ring together!"

It certainly does seem like it's a Lose with Cruz pitch.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

We really need to condense the format....this is taking forever. I just want to rip the Band-Aid off at this point and be done with it.

Ya made me curious, so naturally I started Googling

2016: 12 debates Aug 6 2015 - Mar 10 2016, primary Feb 1 2016 - June 7 2016
2012: 20 debates May 5 2011 - Feb 22 2012, primary Jan 3 2012 - June 5 2012
2008: 21 debates May 3 2007 - Feb 2 2008, primaries Jan 3 2008 - June 3 2008

So it's actually been a season several months shorter than the last couple, it just feels longer.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think that Cruz has a pitch. He has delegates in the bag. If he can just get it to a second ballot . . .

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Ya made me curious, so naturally I started Googling

2016: 12 debates Aug 6 2015 - Mar 10 2016, primary Feb 1 2016 - June 7 2016
2012: 20 debates May 5 2011 - Feb 22 2012, primary Jan 3 2012 - June 5 2012
2008: 21 debates May 3 2007 - Feb 2 2008, primaries Jan 3 2008 - June 3 2008

So it's actually been a season several months shorter than the last couple, it just feels longer.

The last couple were essentially over on the (R) side in March. No one dropping out for the frontrunner is probably the difference.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by bronconick

The last couple were essentially over on the (R) side in March.

So was this year's really .

[nol]

Originally Posted by digamma

This should disqualify a person from holding public office.

Ted Cruz Desecrates Classic Movie Scene By Calling Hoop a "Basketball Ring"

I know at least one person who disqualified him:

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by digamma

So, at this point, what is the Cruz convention pitch?

I think it's a combination of:

1. I can actually win in November (I think he actually believes this, despite the evidence to the contrary).

2. You have no idea what Trump will do. For all you know, he could dismantle the GOP as we know it. You know me as a consistent hardline conservative. You know exactly what I'm going to do.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by digamma

This should disqualify a person from holding public office.

Ted Cruz Desecrates Classic Movie Scene By Calling Hoop a "Basketball Ring"

Not only did he desecrate a place where a classic movie was filmed...but it is also the same place where I got married!

[Butter]

Ripping off a comment from elsewhere:

"As a youngling, I spent much time, bouncing this sphere off the ground, and carefully tossing it into the designated ring. My various associates found it rather amusing."

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I'm honestly floored that anyone considers Ted Cruz a viable presidential candidate at this point. He makes Donald Trump look highly intelligent.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm honestly floored that anyone considers Ted Cruz a viable presidential candidate at this point. He makes Donald Trump look highly intelligent.

Eh, my feelings about Cruz aside, it doesn't take a genius to get a whole bunch of stuff right. No President that I'm aware of has undertaken even emergency brain surgery nor been asked to create some new law of physics.

Common sense would be a more valuable trait IMO than extremely high intelligence.

Sadly, we seem to be up the proverbial shit creek for that in this go round but in generic terms I'd say it's the more important skill to possess.

[flere-imsaho]

I'm certain Cruz could get 45% of the vote, at least, if he's the GOP nominee. It doesn't take much to be viable.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm certain Cruz could get 45% of the vote, at least, if he's the GOP nominee. It doesn't take much to be viable.

45% is going to be close to winning if we're talking popular vote. The Libertarian candidate is getting 8-11% of the vote in polls right now, leaving only around 90% for the other candidates.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

45% is going to be close to winning if we're talking popular vote. The Libertarian candidate is getting 8-11% of the vote in polls right now, leaving only around 90% for the other candidates.

Keep in mind that 3rd party candidates do much better in polls than in the actual election. Polls are a safe place to lodge a protest vote.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

45% is going to be close to winning if we're talking popular vote. The Libertarian candidate is getting 8-11% of the vote in polls right now, leaving only around 90% for the other candidates.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Keep in mind that 3rd party candidates do much better in polls than in the actual election. Polls are a safe place to lodge a protest vote.

I don't know. There's got to be a lot more people ready to lodge a protest vote than in most elections given the candidates we have to choose from.

[Coffee Warlord]

Reports coming in that Cruz will/would/has pick(ed) Fiorina as his VP. (Does such a thing even matter when you aren't even the nominee, or even the leading nominee?)

As if I needed even MORE reason to not want him within a billion miles of the white house.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Keep in mind that 3rd party candidates do much better in polls than in the actual election. Polls are a safe place to lodge a protest vote.

Yeah, I think that's an incredibly valid point.

Unless of course the previous post about this was just a typo and he meant the much more realistic 1% Lib. vote than the 10% that was posted.

That's just outright absurd on the face of it, nothing that's happened this year has put any existing 3rd party candidate anywhere close to the status of Perot (Round 2) nor even John Anderson.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Reports coming in that Cruz will/would/has pick(ed) Fiorina as his VP. (Does such a thing even matter when you aren't even the nominee, or even the leading nominee?)

As if I needed even MORE reason to not want him within a billion miles of the white house.

Just further reinforces my growing hatred of Cruz. She was among the most worthless candidates in a field filled with worthless candidates.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Reports coming in that Cruz will/would/has pick(ed) Fiorina as his VP. (Does such a thing even matter when you aren't even the nominee, or even the leading nominee?)

As if I needed even MORE reason to not want him within a billion miles of the white house.

I think he realizes that he has to win California to take this to the convention, so it would make sense to announce this at some point. Seems a little early, though.

In an ordinary campaign, the Republicans would be wrapping things up at this point. But both the Republicans and the Democrats have a system where you have to win the voters and the insiders. Usually, the insiders follow the voters. When Obama gained momentum and started winning big contests in 2008, the superdelegates followed.

This time, the insiders really don't like Trump. They dislike him so much that they're willing to support Cruz. And they're still fighting.

So, what happened last night? Trump outperformed. I have a hard time believing his popularity has improved. He's had a month where he hasn't made any new major gaffes (just the usual minor stuff), but that isn't a recipe for winning. The national polls are moving Trumpward as well. Right now, Trump would win Indiana and he would dominate in California. This would get him to 1,237, most likely.

Are people still tuned in? This campaign does seem like it has gone on forever, but it really isn't any different than the past, except the inevitability seems to build on Super Tuesday most campaigns.

My guess is that all the media gushing about how it's a political process and there's nothing wrong with what happened in Colorado and Georgia and Louisiana and Maine resonated with people. That Cruz's only path is this organizational hijacking of what the voters want. It's politics, but it should also depress turnout.

The story early on was how the Republicans were setting voting records, and out-voting Democrats even in states they usually lose. Take Michigan for example - after Super Tuesday. The Republicans had 1.32 million voters, the Democrats 1.19 million. Now look at Pennsylvania last night - a state rather similar to Michigan in blueness. The Democrats had 1.65 million voters and the Republicans had 1.57 million.

That might not seem significant, but I think it is. The air is slowly deflating from this balloon of anger from people inclined to vote Republican.

I don't know. There's got to be a lot more people ready to lodge a protest vote than in most elections given the candidates we have to choose from.

I've been doing this most of my adult life. It doesn't seem to work very well, but I'll probably do it again.

[spleen1015]

I've definitely tuned out. I'm just waiting to see how the Repubilcans steal the nomination from Trump.

[digamma]

I know Cruz is Canadian, but Carly will definitely be a BIG PACERS FAN this week.

[Kodos]

She has my vote then.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Kodos

She has my vote then.

She'll be cheering every time a Pacer puts the ball into the basketball ring.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by digamma

I know Cruz is Canadian, but Carly will definitely be a BIG PACERS FAN this week.

[albionmoonlight]

"We are both big fans of the upcoming sportsball competition, and we anticipate watching it with pleasure. During this event, we will also consume with pleasure whatever food and/or beverage products are typically enjoyed by humans watching this competition, including, but not limited to, products which may be produced locally.

Each of us intends to root for the team that a normal person of our background would root, with a particular focus on the location of our birth and the educational institutions that we attended."

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I don't know. There's got to be a lot more people ready to lodge a protest vote than in most elections given the candidates we have to choose from.

10% seems way too high, but anecdotally, I know more than a few people who have in the past poo-pooed voting third party as "wasting a vote," but are saying that this year they will go third party if Trump is the nominee.

[Solecismic]

I've read a few summaries of the Pennyloopers, compiled by bloggers who have scoured media reports from all over the state.

It seems fair to consider 37 of the 54 as likely Trump voters on the first ballot (which is all that matters for Trump - things will get crazy and unpredictable on a second ballot). They are not pledged delegates, though a few of them seem to have made some sort of independent pledge.

Many people consider Kasich as some sort of compromise candidate. He openly admits he's still in the race solely to convince delegates of his November electability. He will, no doubt, head into the convention with exactly one win.

But when you talk about electability, it's relevant to consider his performance in Pennsylvania, which borders the state he governs. He finished third there overall, with 19% of the vote. And in terms of wrangling the Pennyloopers, which would show grass-roots strength, perhaps an ability to work successfully at the convention should there be a second ballot, he has one leaner out of 54.

That said, when you run these national what-if polls, Kasich fares far better than Trump and Cruz. The Republican insiders are in far deeper you-know-what than most people realize. What emerges from this mess is still undetermined.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

She was among the most worthless candidates in a field filled with worthless candidates.

Complete, 100% agreement.

She's a complete and utter sham. We all know about her disasters at HP, but there's this about Lucent:

Lucent and its major competitors all started goosing sales by lending money to their customers. In a neat bit of accounting magic, money from the loans began to appear on Lucent’s income statement as new revenue while the dicey debt got stashed on its balance sheet as an allegedly solid asset. It was nothing of the sort. Lucent said in its SEC filings that it had little choice to play the so-called vendor financing game, because all its competitors were too.

In the giant PathNet deal that Fiorina oversaw, Lucent agreed to fund more than 100% of the company’s equipment purchases, meaning the small company would get both Lucent gear at no money down and extra cash to boot. Yet how could such a loan to PathNet make sense for Lucent, even based on the world as it appeared in the heady days of 1999? The smaller company had barely $100 million in equity (and that’s based on generous accounting assumptions) on top of which it had already balanced $350 million in junk bonds paying 12.25% interest. Adding $440 million in loans from Lucent to this already debt-heavy capital structure would jack the company’s leverage up to 8 to 1, and potentially even higher as they drew more of the loan.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm honestly floored that anyone considers Ted Cruz a viable presidential candidate at this point. He makes Donald Trump look highly intelligent.

I will call Cruz a lot of things, including, without limitation, slime bucket, ass, ugly, warped, weird, out of touch and possibly the Zodiac killer, but unintelligent is not one of those things. Begrudgingly, the guy is pretty freaking smart.

[wustin]

Cruz was one of the most intelligent students from Harvard law in the last half-century lol. Personal issues aside, you can't knock on his intelligence because he's from the Tea Party.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The 54 Pennyloopers are included in the total of 108.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I've read a few summaries of the Pennyloopers

Stop trying to make fetch happen

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Stop trying to make fetch happen

It's either that or Ploopies. Your choice.

[stevew]

It's a huge set of balls to pick a VP when you are mathematically eliminaTED from the race. I actually hope this fuckwit doesn't win the nomination as I think I trust a Trump presidency far more than Ted.

[Solecismic]

It does make you wonder who Trump will pick. I assume Christie's out. Neither he nor his wife seems all that into standing behind him during speeches. Ben Carson? Maya Lin might be a good choice.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Just further reinforces my growing hatred of Cruz. She was among the most worthless candidates in a field filled with worthless candidates.

I don't understand what anyone sees in Fiorina. She has a terrible record as an executive and no other political experience.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't understand what anyone sees in Fiorina. She has a terrible record as an executive and no other political experience.

She had the advantage of being the only woman in that side of the race.

Otherwise, seriously, I don't a single thing that she brings to the party (figuratively nor literally)

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

She had the advantage of being the only woman in that side of the race.

wait why am i in agreement with jon