10-08-2020, 04:49 PM | #4551 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Yeah almost like most pro-life people don't care about abortions and care more about telling women what they can do. |
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10-08-2020, 04:55 PM | #4552 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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It's really over now. JLaw has endorsed Biden.
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10-08-2020, 04:56 PM | #4553 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
*certain women They quietly don't mind when their wives and mistresses get abortions after all.
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10-08-2020, 09:36 PM | #4554 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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I just saw that Trump has only won 1 of the last 5 Texas polls. 2 Ties, 2 with Biden ahead.
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10-08-2020, 09:53 PM | #4555 |
assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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There's the real threat to the republic. If Texas goes blue, I'm pretty sure they'll just secede.
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10-08-2020, 11:20 PM | #4556 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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georgia and iowa are pretty much tied!
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10-08-2020, 11:21 PM | #4557 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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10-08-2020, 11:37 PM | #4558 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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The red part can all pitch in and build that wall
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10-09-2020, 12:30 AM | #4559 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Manitowoc, Wisconsin
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I see a lot of quoting of polls, but I'm not convinced.
I work as a political pollster, and just tonight I heard "go F yourself", "F you", "you don't know the score", and "polls are bull****". Of course, none of those people got a say in the poll but I think I could safely predict who they're voting for. For all the talk of how much better the polls have gotten, there is also the reality that polls have a historically low response rate AND the incumbent has been running against the media and formal institutions for years, which is a new factor that I'm not sure can be properly weighted. |
10-09-2020, 02:30 AM | #4560 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Yeah, it's definitely an interesting point. Put another way, the polls that Trump does the best in are the ones that you would expect to sample his followers (the online survey kind) - they get very poor grades and downsampled in most of the aggregators, but what if those are capturing people who are very enthusiastic about voting for a particular candidate where nobody else is.
I worked in the survey industry (IT for a sample provider) 15 years ago, and even then the industry didn't really have an answer for the fact that people were less likely to be able to be identified by their land lines which was the way to generate samples for the previous 50 years. I mean I assume Nate Silver is smart enough to have considered that especially what happened 4 years ago, but it's also something that only happens every 4 years and with social media and Trumpism, we really are in uncharted waters. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Barring Biden getting Covid (there's a terrible thought) or falling asleep and his false teeth falling out in the debate, it's absolutely clear what the polls are saying and even with some level of voter suppression he should walk to victory. If this one ends up the other way short of Trump just declaring victory at 9pm on election night and declaring martial law, it's clear the current way political polls work are dead. Fool me once... |
10-09-2020, 04:58 AM | #4561 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I think the reason to believe polls is that they have a track record of being proven correct. They are very accurate in terms of predicting how people actually vote. If that wasn't the case, I can see doubting them but you're aren't on the money as often as polls are by accident.
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10-09-2020, 09:19 AM | #4562 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Yeah, the national polls were off by a point in 2016 and captured the democrat wave in 2018. Biden's national lead is now up to 10 points on 538. I can see them being off by a point or two but not 10. I hope they're right this year so we can put this "all polling was wrong in 2016" myth to rest.
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10-09-2020, 09:51 AM | #4563 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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Quote:
One could argue that the incumbent is running against the culture of the nation and established societal norms, which over time is to his own detriment.
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10-09-2020, 09:59 AM | #4564 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I think a bigger challenge is in how accurate they are in estimating the electorate rather than how successful they are in reaching individuals? I'm sure there are varying levels of cooperation in different groups, but if you eventually get ahold of (say) 300 college educated, white women, 300 union members, 300 black christians, etc., the thought is that you can get a pretty accurate percentage of how they will vote. But then trying to determine what percentage of the electorate these groups will represent is a problem.
Here is a decent article on it (although it is a little confusing, as it talks about both discrepancies in the exit polling and changes between the 2012 and 2016 electorate): Voter Trends in 2016 - Center for American Progress It seems like some of the big impacts were some pollsters considering that the black turnout would remain as high and loyal to Hillary as it was to Obama (there was a 7% drop-off in turnout and Trump won about 5% more) AND that although turnout did not change among non-college educated whites, they made up a bigger percentage of the vote (and particularly so in the rust belt states where Trump won PA, MI, and WI by very small margins). This is also why some pollsters still have sound reputations, despite having house effects. I think most folks feel like Rassmussen and Zogby are pretty reputable outfits, but that they tend to overestimate the GOP electorate in their polling (why Trump consistently touts his high approval rating in Rasmussen, whereas in many other polls he has rarely or never been above 50%). Last edited by Swaggs : 10-09-2020 at 10:02 AM. |
10-09-2020, 04:08 PM | #4565 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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So there's another Graham/Harrison debate tonight, and Harrison had demanded that Graham get tested for COVID-19 again given Graham's proximity to several R's that got it. Graham refused, and it looked like there might not be a debate at all. Now the two have come to an agreement to have seperate interviews with a moderator and panel. It will be interesting to see if any of those moderators and panel members come down with COVID now.
Also big shout out to the MeidasTouch campaign on Twitter to get people to chip in on a banner that should be flying over Lindsay's head right about now that says "Lindsey Sucks at Debates"
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
10-09-2020, 04:17 PM | #4566 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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I just checked and our absentee ballots were Accepted. We dropped them off on Wednesday, so I'm glad for the quick turnaround (though I'm not sure why they don't email a status update rather than making you check the website every few days to see if it's accepted).
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
10-09-2020, 07:15 PM | #4567 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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85% on 538 now.
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10-09-2020, 07:23 PM | #4568 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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It has moved between 84 and 85 since I looked yesterday morning.
Still won't get my hopes up.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
10-09-2020, 09:43 PM | #4569 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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4 hour dola...
Does anyone care about Hilary's email anymore? I might have cared 4 years ago, but who gives a shit now? I certainly don't.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? Last edited by spleen1015 : 10-09-2020 at 09:43 PM. |
10-09-2020, 09:44 PM | #4570 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Judge granted an injunction for the Texas voter suppression tactic of limiting one drop-off box per county.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
10-09-2020, 09:52 PM | #4571 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I still don't it for Abbott. I'm sure their internal numbers told them something. But: "To qualify for mail-in ballots in Texas, registered voters must cite a disability or illness, be 65 years or older, or be confined in jail but still eligible to vote. " (source) So I would almost think that more votes would be cast by mail for GOP than Dem. SI
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10-10-2020, 07:00 AM | #4572 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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I'm glad the next debate has been called off and both are going to do their own thing. Don't think we need the third one either.
I was watching A Year in Space about Scott Kelley (who has a twin married to Gabby Gifford ... yes that one). There was an episode that showed Obama talking about his conversation with Scott in space, people around him laughing as Obama cracked jokes about it. And I was thinking, that is the "normal" type of Presidential things I want to see on TV and read about vs the continuous 4 years of drama. Admittedly much of the drama was hyped up by MSM but there is plenty enough to know Trump is the root cause. I'm ready for "normalcy" and pre-Trump old school politics. EDIT: see link on what they found out about the twin experiment and what humans have to deal with for an extended trip to Mars. Scott Kelly's Year in Space Took a Toll On His Body | Time Last edited by Edward64 : 10-10-2020 at 07:37 AM. |
10-10-2020, 08:53 AM | #4573 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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I didn't care 4 years ago. Once it was reported that Colin Powell also had the same type of server, I knew this was just a bogus witch hunt.
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10-10-2020, 08:54 AM | #4574 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Kalamazoo, MI
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Given that I doubt Trump was ever tested until he was sick (just made others be tested), I wouldn't ever agree to be in the same room as him.
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10-10-2020, 09:25 AM | #4575 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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I sent my absentee ballot in, and man it sure felt good to vote against Trump and Graham
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! Last edited by Thomkal : 10-10-2020 at 09:25 AM. |
10-10-2020, 10:12 AM | #4576 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
And like half the Trumps use private email, too, to avoid public records laws no doubt. I'll just go with the most common Tweet I see around this: "Boy, Hillary's never going to win the 2020 election now". Something about fighting to win the last war comes to mind. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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10-10-2020, 03:45 PM | #4577 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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I did my part today at a local honk and wave, adding my own rock flare
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10-10-2020, 03:59 PM | #4578 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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yay CF!
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
10-10-2020, 04:22 PM | #4579 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Go CF!
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
10-10-2020, 08:29 PM | #4580 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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nice beard
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10-11-2020, 08:39 AM | #4581 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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What sort of impact is the 2020 House going D this year, going to impact the redistricting for the next 10 years, and the overall political picture? We know that the 2010 maps lead us, in part, to where we are today.
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10-11-2020, 08:54 AM | #4582 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Good question, as I expect the GOP to ratfuck things with redistricting and reapportionment. It's another area a 6-3 court could play a big role.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-11-2020, 11:08 AM | #4583 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Kalamazoo, MI
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Quote:
Almost all of it is at the state legislative level or "nonpartisan" state redistricting committees. Republicans could lose three big state races |
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10-11-2020, 01:46 PM | #4584 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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86%. The noose tightens.
Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-11-2020 at 01:48 PM. |
10-11-2020, 03:34 PM | #4585 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA
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Quote:
It is the state legislatures and governors that generally control redistricting. If those go down with Trump it will make a huge difference for the next decade.
__________________
Some knots are better left untied. |
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10-11-2020, 03:35 PM | #4586 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA
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What bronconick said, I should pay better attention
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Some knots are better left untied. |
10-11-2020, 10:32 PM | #4587 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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OC Register is reporting that fake drop boxes are being put out and seem to have connections to GOPers in CA.
Too bad this isn't the fraud Barr is looking for.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-11-2020, 11:16 PM | #4588 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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C'mon, man, with a story like that you have to have a link
SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 10-11-2020 at 11:16 PM. |
10-12-2020, 12:35 AM | #4589 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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10-12-2020, 06:31 AM | #4590 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Across the country over the next few weeks, some idiots are going to get charged with actual election crimes because they will be trying to show how easy it is to commit those crimes.
Of course, the fact that these guys are getting caught proves the opposite of their point. It is kind of like showing how easy it is to rob a bank by reaching over the teller window and grabbing some cash and running out and getting caught a block later. And it kind of shows the world in which these guys have lived. They are committing crimes on a lark with no real sense that the criminal law would ever actually come down on them. They are just joking. They are just trying to prove a point. They didn't actually mean to do anything wrong. Life's all been a big game for them up until this point. Which, congratulations, I guess. But you better hope the DA sees it the same way. Last edited by albionmoonlight : 10-12-2020 at 06:31 AM. |
10-12-2020, 07:19 AM | #4591 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Meanwhile, I'm concerned there will also be some big crimes that will go undetected and unpunished. Not of the "haha - I can throw 10 ballots in the trash - see the system doesn't work when I get caught". But of the "Diebold machines are really easy to manipulate" variety. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 10-12-2020 at 07:20 AM. |
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10-12-2020, 08:15 AM | #4592 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
It was paywalled.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-12-2020, 11:37 AM | #4593 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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The PredictIt markets are getting more interesting.
Florida and NC are getting more and more blue. As Ohio, Iowa, GA, and TX get more and more red. Those seem like inconsistent movements. It seems that the partisans are manipulating the markets in a way unconnected to the actual election. I'd love to see their proprietary numbers to see where the actual money is coming from. The betting caps are low enough that it would not take much outside money to actually move the markets (which seems to be happening on both sides) |
10-12-2020, 11:42 AM | #4594 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Could Texas have to do with the blatant voter suppression?
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10-12-2020, 11:52 AM | #4595 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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I know I would put money on Georgia staying red. I don't care if the polls move even further Biden's way. Voter suppression is an art form here.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Last edited by GrantDawg : 10-12-2020 at 12:00 PM. |
10-12-2020, 12:06 PM | #4596 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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I think OH, FL and TX all stay red, but the other areas where they picked up in 2016 are gone, and those will fall blue.
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10-12-2020, 12:10 PM | #4597 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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I think Florida is still a strong candidate to flip, it all depends on what shenanigan's DeSantis can get away with. Agree the other two stay red.
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10-12-2020, 01:30 PM | #4598 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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News sites need to drop their paywalls during election season. Just got my ballot and trying to get multiple view points on items is next to impossible due to the number of paywalls out there.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
10-12-2020, 02:47 PM | #4599 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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If news sites were to drop their paywalls when people needed their information, why would anyone subscribe at all? And then the news sites would end up folding (as a lot of papers already have done).
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10-12-2020, 03:46 PM | #4600 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Extend wait times being reported across most of metro Atlanta. 8 hours at the main office in Gwinnett, 5 hours at other Gwinnett locations. 5 hours wait in Cobb. I know at the only Newton voting location open, the line was around the building to get to the zig-zag line in the back. 2-3 hours would be my guess there.
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