2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[sterlingice]

There are a lot of observations about Dayton Moore collecting former Braves to the point where it looks more like a pattern than a joke.

SI

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, Smoltz was on the Dan Patrick show, and that's exactly what he said the Cards coaches were pointing out to him, that he might have been tipping his pitches. They worked on it, and a mechanical issue, and he pinned as much on that as anything for his surprising turnaround in one game.

It was one game - let's not go crazy over thinking this. The reality is that Smoltz was pitching better than his ERA indicated in Boston, and the NL isn't quite as tough a league as the AL. By the end of the season we'll have a little more info on exactly what may or may not have changed with Smoltz since joining St. Louis (though to be clear, the sample size will still be quite small for the purposes of drawing meaningful conclusions).

I'm not going to dispute the idea that Smoltz may have been tipping his pitches or that he and Duncan made some tweaks to his mechanics, but people try way too hard to derive cause and effect from things that are most likely just random variation, or have some other more probable explanation.

[Lathum]

lol

I love Vin Scully.

He just pronounced Piscataway as piss-ca-tawn-ie

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

It was one game - let's not go crazy over thinking this. The reality is that Smoltz was pitching better than his ERA indicated in Boston, and the NL isn't quite as tough a league as the AL. By the end of the season we'll have a little more info on exactly what may or may not have changed with Smoltz since joining St. Louis (though to be clear, the sample size will still be quite small for the purposes of drawing meaningful conclusions).

I'm not going to dispute the idea that Smoltz may have been tipping his pitches or that he and Duncan made some tweaks to his mechanics, but people try way too hard to derive cause and effect from things that are most likely just random variation, or have some other more probable explanation.

Don't freak out now. If you read my post, you'll see it was merely informational, providing what I heard on the radio show.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Don't freak out now. If you read my post, you'll see it was merely informational, providing what I heard on the radio show.

Sorry, I didn't intend for the post to come across as specifically taking you to task. More of a generalized rant using the Smoltz situation as a specific example.

[stevew]

The NL ROY race should be interesting. Obviously I have a few dogs in the fight(McCutch and Garret Jones). You'd think J Happ probably wins though. But there are several other dudes who merit consideration.

[stevew]

Jones for the lead!

I expect Matt CollAPPSe to blow this.

[EagleFan]

Nice game by Happ tonight, except for that one pitch to Jones. The Phillies cost themselves that game by not being able to get runners in early in the game when they had a chance to open the game up.

[EagleFan]

Hated seeing the Phillies lose 2 of 3 but that was a pretty good series overall.

[stevew]

I was expecting Morton to get chased early. He's been ok this year but I'm doubting he ever really puts it together

But yeah. Really good games. Everything went down to the end.

[RedKingGold]

Geez, can't get out of PNC Park fast enough. Those Pirates are pretty fun to watch and I hope they can get this thing turned around next year or immediate future.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm just waiting for Sabathia or Beckett to get to 20 wins with an ERA in the mid 3's and win because Zack ends up "only" 14-9 and 250 K's with a 2.40 ERA which could have been even lower if he played in front of a league average defense (Royals last in the league; alternatively, Lincecum and Cain play in front of the 2nd best).

Arguably the 2 most surprising teams this year - the Mariners and Giants. Top 2 teams in UZR - same 2 teams.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, Smoltz was on the Dan Patrick show, and that's exactly what he said the Cards coaches were pointing out to him, that he might have been tipping his pitches. They worked on it, and a mechanical issue, and he pinned as much on that as anything for his surprising turnaround in one game.

For all the things the Red Sox are supposedly better than other teams at when it comes to pitchers (the shoulder strengthening program is one example) there could be some truth to them being bad at it. I have a friend who was able to call out most of Buchholz's pitches a couple starts ago. Personally I can't tell beyond when Varitek stands for every high fastball, but if a random friend can pick it up you'd think the Sox pitching coaches would.


Fantasy-advice for the stretch run - just pick up Brad Penny now. Assuming he ends up in the NL, and we might have made him agree to it as part of his release, he's probably good for a sub-4.00 ERA.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Geez, can't get out of PNC Park fast enough. Those Pirates are pretty fun to watch and I hope they can get this thing turned around next year or immediate future.

I went to the game last night...and once again did not see the Phils won. The last time I was at a game in Pittsburgh where the Phillies beat the Pirates...Robert Person pitched for the Phillies.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Royals got 4 homeruns in a game for the first time in nearly 2 1/2 seasons. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long for the next 4 homerun game, but I won't be holding my breath.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

I went to the game last night...and once again did not see the Phils won. The last time I was at a game in Pittsburgh where the Phillies beat the Pirates...Robert Person pitched for the Phillies.

Remember the game where Robert Person hit two home runs, including a grand slam, in the same game for the Phillies?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Royals got 4 homeruns in a game for the first time in nearly 2 1/2 seasons. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long for the next 4 homerun game, but I won't be holding my breath.

Unfortunately, not much on the roster that leads me to believe 4 homer games are going to start being common all of a sudden

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Unfortunately, not much on the roster that leads me to believe 4 homer games are going to start being common all of a sudden

SI

Yeah, the only thing more shocking than the 4 homeruns was that you likely wouldn't have been able to guess the majority of the players that were involved. No Butler, Teahan, Jacobs, or Guillen.

[lordscarlet]

NOOOOOO!

Nyjer Morgan is gone for the season. I think he is a large factor in the turn-around for the Nationals. Thankfully it isn't an 18 month ordeal like Jordan Zimmermann.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

NOOOOOO!

Nyjer Morgan is gone for the season. I think he is a large factor in the turn-around for the Nationals. Thankfully it isn't an 18 month ordeal like Jordan Zimmermann.

Crap. This presents a challenge to the Royals' run at the number 1 pick in next year's draft.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Crap. This presents a challenge to the Royals' run at the number 1 pick in next year's draft.

I haven't seen the lineups yet, but it looks like Willie Harris will be playing CF. I assume they're putting him in the leadoff spot as well, but perhaps they'll try someone else (Dukes? Guzman? Someone not currently on the 25 man roster?)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Angels close to deal for Kazmir | angelsbaseball.com: News

The Rays will get pitcher Alexander Torres and third baseman Matthew Sweeney in return in the deal, which is expected to be announced later today.

Don't know either of the prospects, but I'm a little surprised Kazmir is gone.

[sterlingice]

Wow- that's quite a fall. What has happened to Kazmir? Went from being one of the best young pitchers in the game to sliding through waivers for a trade.

And how the heck did KC or any number of other teams not put in a waiver claim for him? Then again, I guess he did sign a long term deal last year, I think.

SI

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

signed extension with Tampa Bay 5/14/08
09:$6M, 10:$8M, 11:$12M, 12:$13.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)
$0.8M bonus if traded (for first trade only)

I have read speculation that Tampa needs to reign in spending, which is kind of crazy. He's also not looked very good since the first half of '08, so I guess combining the money with the question marks means he's shipped out.

[stevew]

Sad to see Tony Plush get hurt. He's one of the guys who I wouldn't mind seeing have a few big paydays(4-5m per) before he retires.

[stevew]

dola-

The Mets should have gotten Kazmir back so we can quit hearing all the whine about that stupid trade they made involving him 5-6 years ago.

[stevew]

I don't get the methodology, but how is Morgan worth 21.4m in WAR dollars? Isn't the defense quotient in the formula a bit extreme there?

[Atocep]

The reason the Mets traded Kazmir in the first place was he wouldn't listen to anyone that offered him help and there were some doubts as to whether or not he could hold up as a starter. He has mechanical issues that Rick Peterson was trying to fix and judging from the number of trips to the DL he's made I doubt anyone has been able to get him to make any adjustments. The Mets made a stupid trade, but it does appear their reasons for shipping him out were very valid.

Kazmir is a guy that the light could come on and he'll go on to win a Cy Young and be the legit ace he appeared to be 5 years ago. Then again, he could end up being a combination of Rich Harden and Oliver Perez the rest of his career and not be reliable enough to pencil him in as anything more than your #3 or #4 starter.

I'm surprised he no one before the Angels claimed him and I'm surprised the Rays couldn't get more for him, but that really makes me wonder if there's something really wrong with him and everyone knows it.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Angels close to deal for Kazmir | angelsbaseball.com: News



Don't know either of the prospects, but I'm a little surprised Kazmir is gone.

WOW, totally did not see that happening. Haven't paid enough attention to him (or the Rays for that matter), but I always pictured him as the big-time ace down there.

[Chief Rum]

Not sure what to make of this yet.

MLB.com backed off of their report, said the deal has fallen through (per MLBtraderumors.com). That's followed 10 minutes later from Sherman with the NY Post, saying "The deal is done."

I am confused.

I guess I'll just wait until the Angels say something (FWIW, local radio said they heard from Angels sources off the record that called the deal done).

[JetsIn06]

Looks like the deal will be announced within the hour.

I have mixed feelings about the deal. Scott Kazmir has pitched like absolute shit a lot of this year, but he's had some good outings lately.

However, the money that he was owed will hopefully go towards re-signing Crawford or Bartlett (Crawford has a $10mil option for next year, Bartlett I *believe* has two years of arb left but I'm not entirely sure.)

The real thing that makes me feel okay about this deal: Wade Davis. This guy appears to be ready for the big leagues.

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
DUR (tb)	AAA	24	9-7	3.39	138	125	56	125	0	1.31

[JPhillips]

Carl Crawford isn't worth anything close to 10 mil. The Rays would be better off getting a cheaper replacement and using the savings to bolster the rest of the outfield.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Looks like the deal will be announced within the hour.

I have mixed feelings about the deal. Scott Kazmir has pitched like absolute shit a lot of this year, but he's had some good outings lately.

However, the money that he was owed will hopefully go towards re-signing Crawford or Bartlett (Crawford has a $10mil option for next year, Bartlett I *believe* has two years of arb left but I'm not entirely sure.)

The real thing that makes me feel okay about this deal: Wade Davis. This guy appears to be ready for the big leagues.

Yeah, I think this deal can work out for both sides.

Kazmir has been pitching better lately, and has improved his overall ERA around 2 runs since his bad start. Plus, prior to this season, the guy was ace material, he's just 25, he's locked up for two more years (and I hear a team option for 2012, too), and it sounds like from some of the comments here, that maybe this is a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

For the price the Angels paid and the fact they can take on that salary, this is a good risk for them, IMO.

Meanwhile, as you say, if this means the Rays can re-up Crawford and Bartlett (and Shields? Is he signed up yet?) and Davis seems like another in a long line of terrific Rays pitching prospects, then the Rays are probably no worse off.

The question will be if Davis can step in and perform right away, because if he struggles early and the Rays just miss out of the playoffs, I can see a lot of grumbling, both in the stands and in the clubhouse, coming from this move.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Carl Crawford isn't worth anything close to 10 mil. The Rays would be better off getting a cheaper replacement and using the savings to bolster the rest of the outfield.

Interesting you mention that, because a similar sorta player in Figgy is also an impending FA, and $10 M has been bandied about. It's one of the big questions facing the Angels, whether they are going to re-up him or not.

$10 M sounds like nutty money to give a leadoff guy (not named Ichiro or Ricky Henderson, that is), but Figgy has been having a phenomenal season, and has actually been pretty good overall for some time now.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Interesting you mention that, because a similar sorta player in Figgy is also an impending FA, and $10 M has been bandied about. It's one of the big questions facing the Angels, whether they are going to re-up him or not.

$10 M sounds like nutty money to give a leadoff guy (not named Ichiro or Ricky Henderson, that is), but Figgy has been having a phenomenal season, and has actually been pretty good overall for some time now.

I wouldn't pay Figgins that much, but at least with the Angels that 10 mil wouldn't limit other options.

[JetsIn06]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, I think this deal can work out for both sides.

Kazmir has been pitching better lately, and has improved his overall ERA around 2 runs since his bad start. Plus, prior to this season, the guy was ace material, he's just 25, he's locked up for two more years (and I hear a team option for 2012, too), and it sounds like from some of the comments here, that maybe this is a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

For the price the Angels paid and the fact they can take on that salary, this is a good risk for them, IMO.

Meanwhile, as you say, if this means the Rays can re-up Crawford and Bartlett (and Shields? Is he signed up yet?) and Davis seems like another in a long line of terrific Rays pitching prospects, then the Rays are probably no worse off.

The question will be if Davis can step in and perform right away, because if he struggles early and the Rays just miss out of the playoffs, I can see a lot of grumbling, both in the stands and in the clubhouse, coming from this move.

Yep, you're right. Shields is pretty much locked up. (4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options)

I believe Kazmir will succeed. But the Rays have a ton of pitching depth in the minors and hopefully a little shakeup is what they needed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I wouldn't pay Figgins that much, but at least with the Angels that 10 mil wouldn't limit other options.

Yeah, that seems like a lot. Not sure the Angels will pay it, either. But it's possible, if what I heard today is true, and that's that Lackey has "delusions of grandeur" that are leading him to seek a deal like Sabathia got last year. If that's true, he won't be back with the Angels next season. So that means a quite a bit of cash left over to bring back the other free agents they want to bring back, like Figgy and Abreu (and maybe Vlad, if his latest good run is an indication of a return to normalcy for him).

[sterlingice]

It just seems like the Rays could have gotten more for Kazmir in the offseason and doesn't this disrupt their rotation, trying to get in the playoffs this year?

SI

[ISiddiqui]

To be honest, Kazmir has been pretty crappy for the Rays rotation... and with the emergence of Niemann, somewhat expendable. This will give Wade Davis a chance as well.

[stevew]

The Rays also have jeremy hellickson who's been tearing shit up in the minors this year. WHIP under 1.00 in AA/AAA and more than a K/IP. He's probably not ready yet, but it wouldn't be a shock if they snuck him onto their playoff roster. Of course if they make it.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don't get the methodology, but how is Morgan worth 21.4m in WAR dollars? Isn't the defense quotient in the formula a bit extreme there?

Admittedly I haven't actually seen Morgan play, but I refuse to believe he's really that much better defensively than every other player in the league. Even with the sample size issues (outfielders usually fluctuate and are best averaged over a 2-3 year period - look at Jacoby Ellsbury going from +16.5 last year to -13.7 this year) it seems unbelievable that Nyjer Morgan is worth more than Miggy Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis or Ichiro.

[sterlingice]

I think WAR and player value is badly skewed. There's way too much emphasis on defense and it doesn't take into account which skills are more valuable. I can find dozens (ok, some hyperbole) of great fielding CFs who are comparable to Morgan in AAA teams all across the country but if they can't hit at even a minimal MLB level, you can't afford to put them in the lineup. While defense is valuable, it is an easier commodity to obtain than hitting for average or, especially, hitting for power and that rarity is not at all reflected in the highly flawed fangraph valuations that I see more and more quoted without context

SI

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think WAR and player value is badly skewed. There's way too much emphasis on defense and it doesn't take into account which skills are more valuable. I can find dozens (ok, some hyperbole) of great fielding CFs who are comparable to Morgan in AAA teams all across the country but if they can't hit at even a minimal MLB level, you can't afford to put them in the lineup. While defense is valuable, it is an easier commodity to obtain than hitting for average or, especially, hitting for power and that rarity is not at all reflected in the highly flawed fangraph valuations that I see more and more quoted without context

SI

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?

I thought the limitations of UZR have been reasonably well documented. The radical swings on a substantial number of players from one year to the next should at least give some people pause. They claim to think a whole season is a fair sample size, but then why do guys go from +10 to -10 to +10 and vice versa regularly? It's like saying batting average is representative over one season when it's clearly been shown that there are numbers underneath the numbers (BABIP, ISO, etc) at work here.

Not only that, but the argument I gave above was talking about using WAR, of which UZR is a big component, where it doesn't take into account the scarcity of some hitting tools when making "salary" valuations.

SI

[kingfc22]

Renteria with a huge grand slam. Reminded me of Brian Johnson vs the Dodgers. Affeldt gets out if a tough jam as well in the 8th.

Come on sweep!!!

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?

The OF fluctuations are the most prominent issue (well other than not attempting to measure catchers), and I think they highlight the underlying issue with UZR. There's more to defense than merely where outs are recorded - taking an angle on the ball, hitting the cut-off man and turning an extra-base hit into a single counts for something, having a strong arm so players don't run on you counts, and park dimensions like Fenway's left field matter (I'm not saying Manny or Jason Bay are good fielders, but it doesn't look good when a 320 foot pop fly hits the monster and "falls in" for a hit). It seems like to compensate for the lack of chances compared to middle infielders (where I think UZR works well) they magnify the worth of each play in the outfield and it can lead to some wild swings. Two examples - Nyjer Morgan is a very good defender and may deserve a gold glove, but there's no way his defense is 50% greater against replacement level than any other OF'er in the league. Conversely, Jacoby Ellsbury has a weak arm and doesn't get great reads on balls, but he's not in the bottom 10% of OF'ers behind guys like Cody Ross, Jack Cust and Ryan Braun.

Joba rules

35 pitch limits? I guess it doesn't matter when you're getting 1-hitters from Sergio Mitre and rosters expand so soon, but I don't see why you wouldn't piggyback him at this point instead of using 5 relievers.

[dawgfan]

OK, let me rephrase here. I totally get that the current defensive metrics are far from perfect, and that one needs to look at a multiple season range and across multiple metrics to get some firm idea of where a player is defensively. So yeah, in the sense that FanGraphs uses UZR and makes valuation calculations for players utilizing UZR numbers for a particular season, I can see the skepticism.

What I'm questioning here is the sense I'm getting from some that they think that defense is now being overvalued by some in the sabermetric community, that there's no way player X's defense is so good as to overcome his middling bat, or player Y's defense is so bad as to mitigate his great bat, etc.

The blogosphere for the M's includes smart guys like Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan and Matthew Carruth. I'm used to seeing discussions of player value and defense defined in such terms as a range, such as somewhere between +5 to +15 runs added per year. They'll look at the various defensive metrics for a player, look at them over multiple seasons and extrapolate a likely range of actual value defensively for a player.

I guess I place a fair amount of trust in the math these guys use (or rely) on to believe them when they say a really, really good defensive player could be saving 25 runs in a season.

And if someone has the math skills to show that they are over valuing the effect of good defense, I'd love to see it.

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Renteria with a huge grand slam. Reminded me of Brian Johnson vs the Dodgers. Affeldt gets out if a tough jam as well in the 8th.

Come on sweep!!!

Honestly, Brian Johnson was the first thing I thought of after my fist pump. Unfortunately, unlike the Brian Johnson game which I was watching live, I was only listening to a streaming broadcast of this game. But it was still awesome. I'm waiting until a month out from the end of the regular season to buy my one month of MLB.tv for the stretch.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Greinke is honestly just ridiculous. Follows up a complete game (15 K's out of 24 outs) with a complete game 1-hitter against Seattle. Current ERA is 2.32.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Greinke is honestly just ridiculous. Follows up a complete game (15 K's against 24 batters) with a complete game 1-hitter against Seattle. Current ERA is 2.32.

And it was weird- he didn't have any K's until the 2nd out in the 6th and ended with 5.

SI

[larrymcg421]

Joe Morgan has spent much of tonight's broadcast of the Phillies-Braves game explaining why strikeouts aren't that bad.