POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

How tough is the map for Trump? He could win NV, AZ,UT, IA, OH, GA, NC, and FL and still lose.

1) it's kind of insane that we're talking about "could win and still lose" for a Republican candidate and the states of Arizona, Utah, and Georgia. Those are states, particularly Utah, that shouldn't be any kind of a challenge for a normal Republican candidate.

2) The TL;DR version of that is the same as it is for most Republicans: you need to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina. I mean, you can change that math a little bit if you flip Iowa and Colorado, but even that only reduces you to "win three out of four" territory on OH/PA/FL/NC.

It's definitely a demographically challenging map for Republicans, which is why it's so head-scratching that instead of nominating a candidate who can appeal to swing states like Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, Republicans double down on the WE ONLY LOST BECAUSE WE WEREN'T CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH derp every four years. You can win elections like that in a Congressional race.

Not so much the Presidency.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

I didn't think it would come to this, but...I did it. I rigged the election. I did the thing, with the machines...whatever it was, it was me.

Had to be.

They talk about Randall County in the article, which is where I live and vote, and there's seriously only like, me and three women in the county that are registered Democrats. The Panhandle is the reddest part of the state, and I assume that if someone is rigging the election to elect a Democrat (not a slate of Democrats, because I think there are only about three contested races on the ballot) in this county, I'd almost have to be involved in the planning, right? I guess I'm doing it in my sleep. Sleeprigging.

I expect you to be mentioned in a Trump speech or on his website in 3, 2, 1...

[Chief Rum]

Is there any chance that after Nov 8, Trump wil just go away? I mean, I know he won't just disappear, but will he at least go back to asshat celebrity apprentice host level Trump, where his name will only cross my social media feed once every other month or so, like back in 2014?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Is there any chance that after Nov 8, Trump wil just go away? I mean, I know he won't just disappear, but will he at least go back to asshat celebrity apprentice host level Trump, where his name will only cross my social media feed once every other month or so, like back in 2014?

I think you're going to get Trump Media. Him teaming up with Breitbart in the campaign was the start. Doubt it'll be big enough to have it's own TV channel but I fully expect a site with radio shows, TV shows, etc. Basically Breitbart/Infowars but with higher production values and more funding.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I hate the Republicans reasons, but considering how powerful the court has gotten and how partisan the nomination process is, how bad a thing is an even split? I mean, I usually agree with Anthony Kennedy, but I'm not sure he should be the most powerful person in the country long term.

Well Kennedy wouldn't be anymore. If Garland gets confirmed, he'd be the new Kennedy (or it might be Breyer). The main problem with a split court is that a 4-4 decision leaves no direction for the lower courts. So if there's a dispute between the circuits (as there was with the gay marriage and Obamacare cases), there'd be no way to resolve it.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well the $20 mil a year is basically the equal of Bill O'Reilly, and he's been getting paid that for a while now.

I knew that. It's just crazy they got paid that much was my point. I'm in the wrong business.

[Thomkal]

Just saw on CNN ticker-plane carrying Pence has slid off runway in NY.don't know details yet.

[cartman]

Trump has questioned why we are even having the election, when they should just give the Presidency to him because Hillary's policies are "so bad".

Donald Trump: 'We Should Just Cancel the Election and Just Give It to Trump' - ABC News

[Thomkal]

House Rep Chaffetz says he has two years of stuff already lined up to probe if Clinton wins.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Just saw on CNN ticker-plane carrying Pence has slid off runway in NY.don't know details yet.

Everyone's fine:

Pence's plane skids off runway at New York airport, no injuries

[Logan]

Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state - POLITICO

[cuervo72]

Not the headliner race, but still. Classy.

Sen. Mark Kirk questions opponent’s American heritage in Illinois debate - The Washington Post

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

House Rep Chaffetz says he has two years of stuff already lined up to probe if Clinton wins.

I haven't heard this discussed anywhere but after the election, if Hillary wins, I am in favor of a full and comprehensive pardon from Obama for literally everything just to avoid this three ring circus for another 4 years.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Butter

I haven't heard this discussed anywhere but after the election, if Hillary wins, I am in favor of a full and comprehensive pardon from Obama for literally everything just to avoid this three ring circus for another 4 years.

yeah I was wondering about the pardon. Wasn't sure she would still be protected from Congress probes with a pardon. If there are no political implications for her from this, I think a pardon would be a nice FU Christmas present to all the Republicans from Obama

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

I didn't think it would come to this, but...I did it. I rigged the election. I did the thing, with the machines...whatever it was, it was me.

Had to be.

They talk about Randall County in the article, which is where I live and vote, and there's seriously only like, me and three women in the county that are registered Democrats. The Panhandle is the reddest part of the state, and I assume that if someone is rigging the election to elect a Democrat (not a slate of Democrats, because I think there are only about three contested races on the ballot) in this county, I'd almost have to be involved in the planning, right? I guess I'm doing it in my sleep. Sleeprigging.

From Breitbart News:

TEXAS DEMOCRAT ADMITS TO VOTE RIGGING

A man registered to vote in Randall County, Texas admitted to rigging voting machines in a public statement on the internet yesterday. "I can do it in my sleep," he said, taunting hard-working conservatives through out the state of Texas.

[Well, maybe it's not on Breitbart yet, but I'm sure they'll be picking up the story very, very soon.]

[Thomkal]

So the first post (from one of my brothers) I see when I get on Facebook this morning. The two of them at one of the debates shaking hands and in big letters over it. "Remember your assigned voting dates: Republicans Nov 8, Democrats Nov 9."

[Kodos]

But Trump told me it was November 28th!

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Kodos

But Trump told me it was November 28th!

Republican voters should always believe what he says

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Kodos

But Trump told me it was November 28th!

That's the late voting date. You see, there's early voting, and there's late voting.

[Kodos]

Makes sense! And probably the lines will be more reasonable.

[SirFozzie]

Did my civic duty today, and voted (love this is the first election with early voting here in MA)..

Hint: I didn't vote for the Orange Goblin.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Butter

I haven't heard this discussed anywhere but after the election, if Hillary wins, I am in favor of a full and comprehensive pardon from Obama for literally everything just to avoid this three ring circus for another 8 years.

ftfy

Yeah, he should basically pardon her for like a zillion things, not limited to "stealing the cookies from the cookie jar"

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Butter

I haven't heard this discussed anywhere but after the election, if Hillary wins, I am in favor of a full and comprehensive pardon from Obama for literally everything just to avoid this three ring circus for another 4 years.

Yeah that would calm things down in DC.

[mckerney]

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Is there any chance that after Nov 8, Trump wil just go away? I mean, I know he won't just disappear, but will he at least go back to asshat celebrity apprentice host level Trump, where his name will only cross my social media feed once every other month or so, like back in 2014?

I think creating a successful media network around one person has failed every time. Glen Beck, Al Gore, even Oprah is a major disappointment. There has to be some fatigue from this 18 month political show. I know I can't wait to see Turducken posts on my feed. Also, how effective/entertaining will Trump be if he just another guy complaining about something? I think Palin showed that without meaningful power your musing are at best a 2 day sideshow.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by stevew

ftfy

Yeah, he should basically pardon her for like a zillion things, not limited to "stealing the cookies from the cookie jar"

He should pardon her for the murder of Vince Foster, just to make their heads explode.

[larrymcg421]

While I like the idea in an imaginative fuck you to Republicans, such a pardon wouldn't stop any investigations and would guarantee she loses in 2020.

[Ben E Lou]

Speaking of pardons, the FBI is reopening the email investigation.

[larrymcg421]

Clinton shares tumbling on PredictIt

[albionmoonlight]

Is this real life?

[Butter]

This is how Trump caught up before the debates, by staying somewhat on message and avoiding saying anything incredibly stupid for several days.

I find it hard to believe that anyone is buying Trump as road-warrior politician instead of insane egomaniac anymore, but the polls are tightening ever so slightly.

[molson]

"Re-opening the investigation" is kind of an over-dramatic way of putting it. The investigation was never "closed", the FBI just informed the legislature that it's found more emails it wants to look at. That's not really surprising that more emails are going to trickle in over time. That's the bed Clinton made.

The headlines are going to tighten the race further though, and Trump already had a tiny amount of positive momentum the last few days (according to 538).

[larrymcg421]

Looks like the Clinton shares stabilized at 75 cents on PredictIt.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that Clinton still has the presidency locked up.

Senate control seems to be on a razor's edge, though. This could have an impact on that if it keeps some Clinton voters home.

[bhlloy]

I think barring a massive polling error, this is still Clintons to lose. She has close to double digit leads in PA, NH and CO which are part of a pretty solid firewall and Trump probably needs to flip 2 of 3 to win.

Doesn't look like it's going to be the runaway though (unless the polls are wrong the other way), he's solidifying in OH and AZ and going the right way in FL.

TLDR, no im totally not refreshing 538 every 30 minutes like an obsessive

[larrymcg421]

I don't think this keeps Clinton voters home. I think it's more likely to send Trump voters to the polls and win him back some NeverTrumpers.

[Thomkal]

I think this is probably the bit of political news Democrats dreaded would happen. Haven't seen the report yet on what exactly may have been found, but the fact its the FBI and not WikiLeaks certainly doesn't bode well for her. Can she and her supporters spin this enough it doesn't cost her the election?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I think this is probably the bit of political news Democrats dreaded would happen. Haven't seen the report yet on what exactly may have been found, but the fact its the FBI and not WikiLeaks certainly doesn't bode well for her. Can she and her supporters spin this enough it doesn't cost her the election?

They haven't reported on what it is they are looking at, other than saying the emails were related to another matter. That means to mean it has nothing to do with classified emails. It very well could be that they are related to the Podesta email hack.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I think this is probably the bit of political news Democrats dreaded would happen. Haven't seen the report yet on what exactly may have been found, but the fact its the FBI and not WikiLeaks certainly doesn't bode well for her. Can she and her supporters spin this enough it doesn't cost her the election?

Pete Williams has sources saying not about Clinton world w/holding emails. Not about Podesta emails. Not emails from Clinton.

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

Pete Williams sources also say it isn't going to be a game changer. But will take more than 11 days

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

anyways, that just was reported by him on MSNBC.

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

Pete Williams sources say in course of a separate investigation, FBI came across "a device." found emails there. but emails NOT from HRC

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 28, 2016

[Dutch]

Well, if nothing else, I think our nations leaders are discovering the importance of cyber security.

[SirFozzie]

Honestly, this is a lesson that should've been learned a while back. Bush 2003-2009 lost 22 million emails, that should've been a wake up call, not to the heads at the top of the political ladder, but to their IT department folks. They had their chance to put things in a way that was right, and they did jack squat, so we're back to square one with Clinton.

What's that old saying, Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me? (and I'm not making fun of the Bush thing there). well, shame on the Government. Anyone who had ANY responsiblity for either of those incidents that didn't get their protest IN WRITING deserves to be canned.

And whoever wins the presidency better realize being fooled three times can't happen

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I'm feeling better and better about my vote for Johnson.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I think barring a massive polling error, this is still Clintons to lose. She has close to double digit leads in PA, NH and CO which are part of a pretty solid firewall and Trump probably needs to flip 2 of 3 to win.

Doesn't look like it's going to be the runaway though (unless the polls are wrong the other way), he's solidifying in OH and AZ and going the right way in FL.

TLDR, no im totally not refreshing 538 every 30 minutes like an obsessive

2 of 3?! More like 7 of 7. As JPhillips posted earlier and what I have been saying since beginning, he needs to win every battleground state and even with the impossibility of doing that, it still would not give him enough electoral votes.

[Thomkal]

https://thinkprogress.org/the-fbi-di...a97#.al76sprke

[mckerney]

Why FBI Director Made Clinton Email Announcement Now

Why did FBI Director James Comey shock Washington on Friday with an announcement that the FBI “has learned of the existence of emails” related to Hillary Clinton’s private email server, and what does it mean?

The truth is Comey didn’t have a choice. Because the new information followed his sworn testimony about the case, Comey was obligated by Department of Justice rules to keep the relevant committees apprised.

Under oath Comey had stated that the bureau had completed its review. Once he learned that there were new emails that required examination, Comey had to notify Congress that he had to amend his testimony because it was no longer true.

Comey’s letter doesn’t say his agents have discovered new witnesses or documents suggesting a criminal act occurred. Rather, he only suggests that evidence that had not yet been examined and, because it was relevant to the case, needs to be reviewed.

There’s also a political dimension. Had Comey not told Congress and it emerged after the election that new materials had come into its possession, the director and his entire agency’s credibility might have been questioned.

In his letter, Comey did not use the phrase being touted by Republicans that the case had been reopened. Technically it was never closed. Nor did he signal at all about the importance or unimportance about the emails.

“In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation,” he said in a letter he sent to congressional committee chairs. “Although the FBI cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant, and I cannot predict how long it will take us to complete this additional work, I believe it is important to update you.”

On the other hand, Comey did not offer any indication from whence the new evidence comes. By his omission he’s left a country in suspense.

1. Case not reopened. 2. Comey had tocorrect testimony. 3. Involves 3 emails whose classification must be determined. 4. None w/held by HRC.

— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) October 28, 2016

There's some speculation the the device the emails were found on is related to the FBIs investigation of Anthony Weiner.

[ISiddiqui]

From the AP:

"BREAKING: US official: Newly discovered emails related to Clinton investigation did not come from her private server."

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mckerney

There's some speculation the the device the emails were found on is related to the FBIs investigation of Anthony Weiner.

Looks like that was the case.

New Clinton Case Emails Tied to Weiner - New York Times

[mckerney]

Anthony Weiner being involved is making for funny headlines at least.

[digamma]

Nice batteries!!

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt back up to 79 cents, almost back to the original 82 cents when the day started.