The Biden Presidency - 2020

[Lathum]

QuebecTango on Twitter: "Air Traffic Control: Avoid the area - there's a war on!
Air India: LEEEEEROOOOYYYYY JEEEENKINNNNS!!!… "

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The war (and is it really a war when it's just one country trying to take over another country) stops if and only if Xi realizes that the EU/UK/US/Canada will pay a heavy price to isolate countries that act in this manner.

So far, we've blinked. No one expected NATO to activate militarily, but what we didn't know is whether we'd try and isolate Russia over the attack. Nope. Their oil and gas is still quite welcome in the west, and at inflated costs and without any sign we want to return to energy and materials independence.

Xi wins without having to lift a finger or risk a single troop. It's Putin's reputation and legacy in tatters. I don't see a Putingrad any time in the future. Not even another sanitized Volgograd or St. Petersburg.

And it gives Xi his blueprint for what to do with Taiwan.

SI

[tarcone]

And the precedent has been set by the USA that it is okay to invade countries in the name of your ideology.

[JPhillips]

For better or worse, I have no doubt that an attack on Taiwan would lead to American intervention. The history and ties to Taiwan are a lot different than with Ukraine.

[Brian Swartz]

Interesting. I don't think it actually would. I don't think we have a stomach for it. I agree on the historical ties, I just don't think that would be close to enough. We're not really risking a nuclear war over Taiwan and that's become more and more obvious to both sides.

[JPhillips]

I absolutely think we'd risk nuclear war over Taiwan. I'm open to arguments over whether we should, but Taiwan and who lost China is still too fresh to think we'd let the Chinese take the island. Hopefully, and I think this is true, the Chinese understand the differences between the two situations.

[tarcone]

China takes Taiwan and good luck 18-22 year olds.

I need to start a garden and get more ammo and a long gun.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Interesting. I don't think it actually would. I don't think we have a stomach for it. I agree on the historical ties, I just don't think that would be close to enough. We're not really risking a nuclear war over Taiwan and that's become more and more obvious to both sides.

If China was to invade Taiwan, the US will have to respond militarily for sure. We have great relationship with Taiwan on trade, technology (much more strategic to us than Ukraine) etc. but the main reason is because of global credibility. If the US did not come to Taiwan's aid, say goodbye to US leadership in all of Asia and greatly reduced influence everywhere else.

Conflict with China over Taiwan does not mean going nuclear. I can see it escalate to that point so it is a risk, but China knows its a MAD II proposition. And China is not crazy (unlike their crazy kid neighbor to the east).

The only thing I can see forcing China's hand to invade is if Taiwan was to "formally" declare independence. Otherwise, China will play the long game - buy off politicians, get friendly ones elected, sabotage, maybe let loose a virus at the airport etc.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I need to start a garden and get more ammo and a long gun.

Don't forget to get far away from a city. I've read Idaho is where the survivalists favor.

You can get cheaper ones for < $800 but spend $2,000-$2,500 to get a really nice one (or two). Think of it as a "family heirloom" that you can hand down if not needed.

Daniel Defense AR15 Semi Automatic Rifles | Daniel Defense

[Edward64]

It would have been better if Biden excluded the first sentence.

I don't disagree with the Biden strategy to incrementally ramp up pressure but not sure I agree with it either. I can go either way here. However, the first sentence is apologetic, arguably a lie, and makes him look weak.

"The sanctions we imposed exceed SWIFT. The sanctions we imposed exceed anything that’s ever been done. The sanctions we imposed have generated two-thirds of the world joining us. They are profound sanctions. Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working,” Biden said.

[Edward64]

Russian troops in the outskirts of Kiev. Some articles saying Kiev will fall by this weekend and sure looks likely.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Interesting. I don't think it actually would. I don't think we have a stomach for it. I agree on the historical ties, I just don't think that would be close to enough. We're not really risking a nuclear war over Taiwan and that's become more and more obvious to both sides.

Maybe it is just me, but the bolded part seems to be a common reality in various parts of American society at the moment.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If China was to invade Taiwan, the US will have to respond militarily for sure. We have great relationship with Taiwan on trade, technology (much more strategic to us than Ukraine) etc. but the main reason is because of global credibility. If the US did not come to Taiwan's aid, say goodbye to US leadership in all of Asia and greatly reduced influence everywhere else.

Why would Taiwan lead to a greater loss of US credibility than Ukraine?

[PilotMan]

Without question.

The US is actually handling this the way that people want. It's not like they could have singlehandedly stopped Putin if they wanted to. It would have been interjecting the US into EU decisions more than necessary. Like it or not, the US plays 2nd chair in this one.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Why would Taiwan lead to a greater loss of US credibility than Ukraine?

The US has had a long strategic relationship with Taiwan (do we even have one with Ukraine other than tangentially via EU/Nato?). We've sent flotillas in the straits as a show of strength, support etc. We've visibly supplied them with military arms and (recently) trainers etc.

We let Taiwan go in a Chinese invasion without supporting it militarily will speak volumes to APAC nations and anywhere else we are competing against China.

[Edward64]

I want this to be true but doubt it. Not near the Bagdad Bob level but an attempt at morale boosting propaganda.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/ukra...irections.html

Ukraine’s military has stopped Russian invasion troops “in most directions” despite renewed missile strikes that began at 4 a.m. local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday.

“The enemy has been stopped in most directions. The fights continue,” Zelenskyy said in a speech that was translated by NBC News. “Russia expects us to get tired, but we’re not tired.”

[PilotMan]

There were reports from BBC this morning that they have blown up a number of bridges toward the city and that they repelled a paratrooper attack. They were also reporting that the Ukraine army was proving challenging for the initial push from the Russians. It's only a matter of time though. The long numbers and resources game is only favoring one side here.

[Brian Swartz]

We've been giving Ukraine military aid as well for the last several years. I don't see what length of relationship has to do with it. We've already softened our stance in multiple ways. It's been 50 years since Taiwan was replaced by China in the UN as the recognized government; over 40 since the US officially recognized China's government. We've done nothing substantive really in response to China's actions in Tibet, in the Ughyur genocide, in breaking their promises relating to Hong Kong, Tiananmen Square, the list goes on and on. Bluster though we might, actually backing up Taiwan if it comes to that would be a drastic break with our previous policy regarding China, which is the same as it is in Ukraine/Russia and other such situations; loudly register our opinions with statements and otherwhise conclude that our economic interest in maintaining trade with Russia and China is far more important than anything else. I would be extremely surprised if we aren't just playing a delaying game; trying to make China wait as long as possible and pay as high a price as we can for taking Taiwan, not actually really thinking we are going to prevent it long-term.

[Icy]

Don't you guys find weird that in the age of mobile phones, internet and everybody recording even the most stupid and meaningless videos, we have barely seen any videos of actual combat?

Maybe it's the news in Spain only but we have just seen images of some far explosions from misiles and a single tank driving in the streets (going over a car with an old man inside btw). But so far not any video of any infantry or tanks fighting or firing for what is a mass land attack from a huge army vs a decent one. Ukraine is supposed to have 900k military and a few thousand tanks that despite being totally surpassed by the Russians air forces and misiles, should give a good fight initially at least. I wonder where are them and where are these land fights taking place.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Icy

Don't you guys find weird that in the age of mobile phones, internet and everybody recording even the most stupid and meaningless videos, we have barely seen any videos of actual fights?

Did you see the video of the Russian tank on the road and a car was coming in the opposite direction and the tank swerved and drove over it?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We've been giving Ukraine military aid as well for the last several years. I don't see what length of relationship has to do with it. We've already softened our stance in multiple ways. It's been 50 years since Taiwan was replaced by China in the UN as the recognized government; over 40 since the US officially recognized China's government. We've done nothing substantive really in response to China's actions in Tibet, in the Ughyur genocide, in breaking their promises relating to Hong Kong, Tiananmen Square, the list goes on and on. Bluster though we might, actually backing up Taiwan if it comes to that would be a drastic break with our previous policy regarding China, which is the same as it is in Ukraine/Russia and other such situations; loudly register our opinions with statements and otherwhise conclude that our economic interest in maintaining trade with Russia and China is far more important than anything else. I would be extremely surprised if we aren't just playing a delaying game; trying to make China wait as long as possible and pay as high a price as we can for taking Taiwan, not actually really thinking we are going to prevent it long-term.

See link for more info.

The Difference Between Ukraine and Taiwan – The Diplomat

Taiwan Relations Act in April 1979. That Act committed the United States to “resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”

The differences, therefore, between Ukraine and Taiwan are stark and important. To put it bluntly: The independence of Ukraine is not a vital security interest of the United States, while the independence of Taiwan is. Russia, with an economy the size of Italy’s, dominating Ukraine poses no national security threat to the United States (other than its nuclear weapons). But China, with an economy that rivals the United States’ and whose Belt and Road Initiative and growing military (including nuclear and naval) power threaten predominance on the Eurasian landmass, in control of Taiwan – a key geopolitical barrier of the “first island chain” in the Western Pacific – would threaten to overturn the balance of power in East Asia and beyond.

As Forbes’ Loren Thompson wrote in October 2020, Taiwan has become “the geographical pivot of history in the Age of the Pacific,” and if it “fell under the sway of Beijing, either peacefully or by force, the strategic balance in the Western Pacific would be irreparably changed.”

I can find numerous similar analysis that will say Taiwan is more strategically important to US than Ukraine and US is more apt to defend it.

Can you provide links that provide analysis/prediction that US will NOT defend Taiwan if China invades? I would honestly be interested in reading them and understand the rationale.

Now if we are talking Trump winning in 2024, all bets are off. But let's assume a "normal" US President.

[Edward64]

I wonder if Ukrainians have deployed a bunch of IEDs? Worked pretty well against the US. At the very least, it would slow things down initially.

(Toss in some suicide bombers too for good measure)

[Edward64]

FWIW, pretty sad that some of us here have been predicting Trump being a contender/winner in 2024

Still time for Biden to turn it around though.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I wonder if Ukrainians have deployed a bunch of IEDs? Worked pretty well against the US. At the very least, it would slow things down initially.

(Toss in some suicide bombers too for good measure)

This ain't exactly a game of Command & Conquer.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This ain't exactly a game of Command & Conquer.

Never played the game. None the less, the question still stands.

[PilotMan]

Point being, suggesting that they use some suicide bombers "for good measure" is more than a little callous to the real world situation.

[Edward64]

It is callous. Nevertheless, it has shown to be an effective strategy at slowing down soldiers and hence the question.

[NobodyHere]

Does the Ukraine have people who know how to make effective IEDs and do they have people willing to plant/detonate them?

[Edward64]

Glad he's got a pick. Hope she sails through.

President Joe Biden has selected Ketanji Brown Jackson as his nominee to the Supreme Court, setting in motion a historic confirmation process for the first Black woman to sit on the highest court in the nation.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Does the Ukraine have people who know how to make effective IEDs and do they have people willing to plant/detonate them?

I posted about possible invasion in early Dec. So there was 2-3 months notice to acquire/build them. Wouldn't think it would be an issue to plant them. And detonation is remote.

I honestly don't know if they have IEDs or not, if they even considered them. But in retrospect, I'd think IEDs is a good counter to infantry & little less so armored vehicles.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Glad he's got a pick. Hope she sails through.

I saw someone tweet using her last name except switched it to "Jackson Brown" and the resulting comments were fun.

If he really was the nominee, I'm assuming Daryl Hannah and Joni Mitchell would derail his nomination.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Glad he's got a pick. Hope she sails through.

And Lindsey Graham slamming her, after he voted to confirm her to her last post, LOL, this guy.

[Thomkal]

I like how the official tweet from Biden uses tape from a previous confirmation of her with Paul Ryan saying nothing but very good things about her.

[Solecismic]

Regarding the response. Since Germany, which has the fourth-largest economy in the world and borders less than 500 miles from Ukraine, has vetoed stronger economic sanctions (particularly banning Russia from the SWIFT network), this relatively weak response isn't necessarily Biden's fault.

Germany and Italy have chosen access to Russia's gas and oil over showing strength (the electrical grid is inter-connected throughout Europe). The big question is what happens when a NATO country is attacked. If the response is similar, then the EU is in serious trouble.

But in the meantime, we should be doing everything possible to get back to energy independence. That might be the signal of strength Xi is looking for while he supports Putin.

[Ksyrup]

When Newsmax is calling out Tucker...

Statement from right-wing network Newsmax: "Newsmax strongly opposes Putin, his unprovoked attack on a sovereign and democratic nation, and has strongly criticized Fox News’ top host Tucker Carlson for supporting Putin and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/YEtfYhc2ma

— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) February 25, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It is callous. Nevertheless, it has shown to be an effective strategy at slowing down soldiers and hence the question.

Not necessarily a suicide bomber, but this is incredible sacrifice.

Vitaly Skakun is hailed as a hero after sacrificing his life to blow up the Henichesky Bridge.

The bridge was mined but a Russian column was advancing and there was no time to detonate it remotely.

Skakun radioed his unit and told them he would do it manually, saying goodbye. pic.twitter.com/6gqIFxlc01

— Visegrád 24 🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰 (@visegrad24) February 25, 2022

[Solecismic]

That really puts this in perspective. For Ukrainians, this is about survival as a people. They know what happened in Belarus.

I don't blame them for feeling abandoned by the world.

Meanwhile, though, there's hope...

Eurovision: Russia banned from competing at 2022 Song Contest

A dramatic reversal from the organizers of the Eurovision music competition. All will be well (heavy sarcasm on, in case that wasn't obvious).

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This ain't exactly a game of Command & Conquer.

No wonder the plan to sneak an engineer into Russia's Construction Yard and spam Tesla Coils failed.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Icy

Don't you guys find weird that in the age of mobile phones, internet and everybody recording even the most stupid and meaningless videos, we have barely seen any videos of actual combat?

Maybe it's the news in Spain only but we have just seen images of some far explosions from misiles and a single tank driving in the streets (going over a car with an old man inside btw). But so far not any video of any infantry or tanks fighting or firing for what is a mass land attack from a huge army vs a decent one. Ukraine is supposed to have 900k military and a few thousand tanks that despite being totally surpassed by the Russians air forces and misiles, should give a good fight initially at least. I wonder where are them and where are these land fights taking place.

Lots of social media outlets are warning about showing pictures of Ukrainian military in action, not wanting to give away troop positions. Sure, not many people listen to those sort of things, but it might be different when your country is on the line.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

That really puts this in perspective. For Ukrainians, this is about survival as a people. They know what happened in Belarus.

Speaking of Belarus, didn't they allow Russian troops attack from Belarussian soil? Have there been any sanctions against them?

[Ksyrup]

The main thing I've seen so far is a tank veering off-course to run over a civilian car. It looks like a Russian tank went out of its way to kill a civilian. But I've also seen reports that it was actually a Ukrainian vehicle that lost control. And, it appears (somehow) that the driver survived.

So, I don't know what we'd learn from video that could wind up being the exact opposite of what it appears to show.

[PilotMan]

The civilian was an old man. There's video of bystanders pulling the car apart by hand to get him out. The tank clearly turns to crush the car, imo.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Speaking of Belarus, didn't they allow Russian troops attack from Belarussian soil? Have there been any sanctions against them?

Yes. Though the installed leader in Belarus (considered the only real dictator in Europe) is about as independent from Russia as Lambchop was independent from Shari Lewis.

Not only did they allow the strategic placement of Russian troops along their border with Ukraine, but there are significant allegations that Belarussian troops and vehicles are part of the invasion (Belarus denies this).

Yes, some sanctions include Belarus, though it's so dependent on Russia that it's of no real value.

This is part of why I don't even buy a tiny percentage of Putin's stated concern about Ukraine and NATO. He already completely controls a country that borders two Baltic NATO countries. And on the other side, Latvia and Estonia already border Russia and the odd little Kaliningrad nook borders Lithuania and Poland. There are no new threats from Ukraine.

So many people (and I'm certainly in this group) thought this was about the Russian-leaning Crimea/eastern provinces issue. But it's not. It seems more about Kyiv itself and installing a similar puppet to Lukashenko.

Twitter has cracked down on the open source intelligence framework that was posting a lot of information. Maybe that's a good thing - some misinformation there, and certainly the Russians were monitoring it for Ukrainian troop information as well as fighting to have Twitter crack down because the focus was clearly Russian positioning. Whether it was of value to the Ukrainian forces themselves I don't know. It's obvious that the first thing Russia did in the attack was hit military airports and communications systems (as well as eliminate Black Sea access).

[RainMaker]

There are sanctions on Belarus. There are also oligarchs in that country with close ties to the West. So like Russia, the sanctions are pretty tame and don't really go after anyone who has power.

[GrantDawg]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is just an amazing man. He was a comedian that some how found himself president of a country after playing a comedian who some how found himself president on TV. Now be is standing defiant as his country is bring invaded by overwhelming force. He knows he is on the Russian hit list. He told European leaders in a meeting earlier today that this was likely the last time they will see him alive. Yet, he is not fleeing. He could be safely in exile, but he remains to most likely die. Incredible bravery and fortitude.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

So, did Xi really just wait to see how the Western world would react for a few days before calling Putin and telling him he should basically knock it off? Looking more and more like he just wanted to see if anybody would do anything.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I can find numerous similar analysis that will say Taiwan is more strategically important to US than Ukraine and US is more apt to defend it.

Can you provide links that provide analysis/prediction that US will NOT defend Taiwan if China invades? I would honestly be interested in reading them and understand the rationale.

I agree that Taiwan is more strategically important. The points made in the article about China being a bigger threat are quite true. But that's only part of it. The fact that China is a bigger threat also makes it that much harder to oppose them.

I have no links and am not really interested in looking for them - how likely prognosticators think it is that we would defend Taiwan militarily is not particularly interesting to me, and such writings tend to bogged down in irrelevancies. The only way we could even arguably do that is if we are willing to commit everything we have in our military to doing it. Right now as a complete abstraction the US public is split fairly evenly on the issue. If China seriously invaded, and we seriously tried to stop them, casualties would be extreme. To my mind it's simply highly self-evident that it would take less than two weeks of the resulting dead bodies piling up for the country to demand we pull out. I think as soon as it became clear to whoever was President at the time that China wasn't bluffing, we'd be gone.

Where Ukraine is relevant is the commitment that we and Europe have. What we're wiling to do about it. If we won't even commit our air force to help Ukraine, why would anyone think we're willing to put everything including boots on the ground in whatever numbers are required to help Taiwan? How do you sell that to the average American, when you know that a nuclear attack is just Xi waking up on the wrong side of the bed/getting the wrong advice from his advisors away?

Taiwan is quite a bit more important, but also orders of magnitude more dangerous. Far more dangerous than it is more important, in other words. And the world has consistently shown, whether it's North Korea, whether it's Iran, that we don't have teeth when it comes to facing down nuclear powers. They get what they want almost every time. Positive signs today that we may be moving somewhat in the right direction here, but I'll believe that we've got the required backbone when I see it.

[Solecismic]

Taiwan remains independent because of the One China policy. It's an odd arrangement, but one that seemingly gives the people of Taiwan a lot of confidence that this won't happen.

Compare that with our experiences in Cuba. Castro drove off the US-friendly government and established ties with Moscow. Kennedy hopelessly botched the Bay of Pigs invasion designed to get rid of Castro (definitely the low point of his short career). And then we left Cuba alone, not willing to engage the USSR in war.

Xi must be just about certain that the US will not back Taiwan militarily. I don't see how it's possible, given the location - to defend Taiwan from China would require defeating China. We didn't proceed with a less covert attack on Castro's Cuba because we were convinced the USSR would defend it and even if we won, which was likely, the cost would have been a full-scale nuclear war. Who wins that?

So Xi is trying to figure out what his real cost for taking Taiwan would be. He knows a little more now. Putin has been a useful idiot for him, but his utility is probably just about up.

But it's an odd situation with Xi, and I don't think we have any way of knowing how he'd feel about a war where China is the aggressor. Despite how atrociously they have treated the Uyghurs, the Chinese government seems reluctant to lose face over aggression - look how hard they try to erase the very history of Tiananmen Square. Xi might actually be content to continue the One China policy. I'm sure he gets a lot of personal satisfaction over the Olympics and Hollywood's capitulation (the John Cena apology, in Mandarin, must have been a career highlight for Xi - he probably replays it incessantly at personal family gatherings). Why risk that? On the other hand, taking Taiwan's tech industry would give China a lot of power.

The thing about being a communist country and not really giving a crap about individual human rights... he's right, we don't understand. But what China does understand is that while a nuclear war would devastate both countries - the targets would be the government and military centers. What would be left is people - and that means a lot less when you rule by force.

The more I think about it, the more I think China does not want to act right now. I could be wrong. Xi certainly wants things like a less stable dollar. But he may be very much against war, and his interests would be better served if everyone kept pretending Taiwan was part of China.

[RainMaker]

I think China is very patient. They can wait out the further decline of the United States.

Don't think there is any chance it would lead to military response. If the US is terrified of going after some Russian oligarchs because it'll mess with a few rich Americans, they sure as hell aren't torpedoing the economy over Taiwan. Russia slaps us around and we take it. Heck, even the Saudis have made us their bitch. They're royally screwing us over and we'll jump at the chance to sell them weapons so they can commit more genocide in Yemen.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The thing about being a communist country and not really giving a crap about individual human rights... he's right, we don't understand.

I think we have a pretty good understanding of what it's like to live in a country that doesn't give a crap about human rights.