12-04-2013, 10:33 AM | #401 |
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12-04-2013, 10:43 AM | #402 | |
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As a guy who has owned Ellsbury the past two seasons and three of the last four, this is misleading. He's fragile as fuck. I had to make play time decisions on him daily. He's the MLB version of the NFL player who is Questionable on the injury report every week, only he has done it for two years now. The Yankees are morons to give this guy that money for that long.
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12-04-2013, 10:52 AM | #403 | |
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Exactly. That's why I'd rather the Yankees end up with Ellsbury rather than Cano. Maybe my initial post wasn't clear that that's what I was talking about? Aah - someone already covered that.
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12-04-2013, 10:56 AM | #404 | |
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We talking Ellsbury here, or Choo? You randomly said Choo in your post. If we're talking Ells...I'm and curious. Projecting him at 20+ how soon, and for how many years? That's something I might be tempted to wager a bottle of scotch on.
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12-04-2013, 11:02 AM | #405 |
High School Varsity
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Here's Ellsbury's Fenway hits over Yankee stadium. He looks like he'd gain a handful. |
12-04-2013, 11:14 AM | #406 | |
Hall Of Famer
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At 3/$48M plus a draft pick for a 37yo Carlos Beltran- oof. That's just too much. SI
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12-04-2013, 11:22 AM | #407 |
Retired
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12-04-2013, 11:38 AM | #408 | |
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Quote:
I think there's been some confusion on the offer. Kurkjian even mentioned on his interview this morning that another team was offering that much, not necessarily the Royals. However, he said that even a lower offer doesn't necessarily eliminate the Royals. He mentioned that he would be shocked to see Beltran go to the Mariners. He said Carlos likes to take day trips down to Puerto Rico to go to his baseball academy. He said for that reason, anywhere west of KC is likely out because a day trip from that distance wouldn't work. |
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12-04-2013, 11:45 AM | #409 | ||
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Quote:
Quote:
He came off a power-sapping injury and hit 1 HR in his first 342 AB's, and 8 of his 9 HR's last year in his last 235 AB's from July 4th on. Toss in the extra 5-6 from the short porch (and that's before considering whether he'll swing for that fence a little more) and you've got over 20 even assuming no more returning power. Assuming healthyish seasons (let's use 130 games as a cut-off there) I like him going for 20+ in at least 2 of the next 3 years. |
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12-04-2013, 12:02 PM | #410 |
High School Varsity
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Well, you may be right, but you are taking a SSS and treating it as gospel going forward, ignoring a much larger sample that says the opposite.
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12-04-2013, 12:35 PM | #411 | |
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In a vacuum maybe - that obviously doesn't account for pitchers realizing that and pitching him differently.
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12-04-2013, 12:38 PM | #412 | |
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12-04-2013, 02:38 PM | #413 |
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Again, it's possible, but even that article is of the "if you look at it from the side with the perfect amount of light" kind of a thing. I don't think it's likely he becomes a 20+ HR guy for the next few seasons. I'm not rooting for anything, I just don't see how confidently predicting something based on next to nothing is sensible. Is it possible that he's really a decent to good power hitter and we just keep seeing injuries stopping him from being that? Sure. I wouldn't bet on it.
Last edited by Ronnie Dobbs3 : 12-04-2013 at 02:40 PM. |
12-04-2013, 03:37 PM | #414 | |
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(And I think we both agree Yankee Stadium isn't 1995 Coors, but it will add a few, so I'm really projecting him to jump from 9 to 15.) As for the rooting angle, just imagine how unhinged the local media will be in June if JBJ is hitting .220 while Jacoby is at .300 with 10+ HR and the Yankees are in first place. For the sake of my own sanity, I'm hoping that's not the case. |
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12-04-2013, 03:43 PM | #415 | |
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It is probably one of them things with Ellsbury where he is a lot like Joe Mauer. They can probably hit more home runs in favor of lower average but they havent decided to make that adjustment. I think I remember hearing that Wade Boggs hit more home runs than anyone during batting practice but once the game started his natural instincts took over where getting on base was the top priority. Ellsbury probably just got on the groove that one summer and felt confident enough to consistently swing for the fences. Now he is back to playing the way his natural talent makes him feel comfortable. Last edited by jbergey22 : 12-04-2013 at 03:44 PM. |
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12-04-2013, 04:01 PM | #416 |
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Ells also isnt a natural pull happy hitter so unless he is looking for a pitch he has to go out of his natural swing to pull the ball. That is also the issue in his power. He doesnt have enough power to hit them out to center and left on a regular basis.
Mauer is the exact same way. He really has to gear up and look for a pitch to pull it. |
12-04-2013, 06:57 PM | #417 | |
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Quote:
Larry Sheets came really close (31 in 1987).
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12-04-2013, 10:25 PM | #418 |
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What a weird career there - Larry Sheets Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com . 17 and 18 HR's in half a season's worth of AB's as a lefty platoon guy his 1st two years, that great 1987 where he even crushed lefty pitching, and then completely fell off the map. Joe Charbonneau's another one of those guys - 24 HR's and RoY, less than 200 AB's after that.
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12-04-2013, 10:37 PM | #419 |
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Rick Wilkins hit 30 with a .303/.376/.561 line and then never hit more than 8 homeruns in a season after that.
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12-05-2013, 07:33 AM | #420 |
Retired
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12-05-2013, 09:44 AM | #421 | |
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Brady Anderson fluked his way into 50, but he wasn't completely devoid of power going forward, either. From '97-'00, he was right around 18-25 every year. |
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12-05-2013, 10:11 AM | #422 |
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I remember watching him. He was a part-time catcher who feasted on rightys at Wrigley. He only had over 400 ABs twice in his career - once he hit 30 and the other 14. He did have a lot of 150-200 AB seasons with 7-8 HRs though. He just never played good enough D to land a fulltime gig. If you pro-rate most of his seasons to 500+ ABs, he would probably have hit 17-25 HR. So, one full season at 30 isn't that crazy.
Last edited by Arles : 12-05-2013 at 10:14 AM. |
12-05-2013, 10:12 AM | #423 | |
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Put away the Beltran to Royals stories:
Quote:
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12-05-2013, 11:56 AM | #424 |
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I hope this ends the pursuit of Beltran for stupid money for a 37yo. I don't know how to react to this- the Royals made a potentially non-sucky trade. Will Smith showed upside as a starter last year in AAA but never really given a chance in KC. But his track record before last year wasn't great and his K numbers spiked last year. So it's not a bad gamble for Milwaukee. But Aoki seems pretty good now and Smith was being underutilized as a reliever so it seems like an actual good deal for Dayton Moore. I'm confused.
SI
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12-05-2013, 11:58 AM | #425 |
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These trades are making me sad that the Giants aren't in on them. I would have loved to see Aoki in the San Francisco outfield.
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12-05-2013, 12:17 PM | #426 |
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I read speculation earlier that the trade doesn't necessarily close the door on the Royals' interest in Beltran. Will look for a link.
edit: Rosenthal on Twitter... Royals acquisition of Aoki does not change anything in their pursuit of Beltran. They still want him. Last edited by Logan : 12-05-2013 at 12:18 PM. |
12-05-2013, 12:17 PM | #427 |
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Aoki is a nice player and he's not making any money. He'd be a lot better if he could play CF but he's pretty stretched there. He does play a fine RF, has a good arm. He dipped quite a bit in slugging percentage last year and when playing a power position like RF you'll have to make that power up somewhere else.
My tendency is to think this is a somewhat fair exchange if Smith can make it as a starter and I really don't have much of a feel whether that's going to happen based on the numbers. I do think he'll make a fine reliever but I would have hoped for a better return on Aoki than a reliever. At least it wasn't Aoki for Ike Davis. |
12-05-2013, 12:19 PM | #428 | |
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Rosenthal has tweeted it for what that's worth: Ken Rosenthal
I'm just going to pretend it won't happen because of how bad an idea it is at the money they would have to pay him SI
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12-05-2013, 12:41 PM | #429 |
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Will Smith... another former Angels farmhand who could have helped the current pitching staff. Skaggs... Corbin... even Wacha... ugh.
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12-05-2013, 02:02 PM | #430 |
Death Herald
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Tanaka might not be posted this offseason.
Masahiro Tanaka may not be made available to MLB teams by Rakuten Golden Eagles - ESPN
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12-05-2013, 03:42 PM | #431 |
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1 year 10M with a 9 or 10M players option for Wilson? hes not even a closer..... LA has so much money they are just stupid
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12-05-2013, 03:57 PM | #432 | |
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to be fair, he really settled the back end last year, and don't think that he won't be right there if Jansen struggles, which he has. The team had some major back end issues early in the year so I can't really fault them for being aggressive.
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12-05-2013, 04:17 PM | #433 |
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Someone needs to sign Beltran. Cards really want that compensation pick.
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12-05-2013, 08:21 PM | #434 | |
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12-05-2013, 08:26 PM | #435 |
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If it's posturing, it'll fail. There are maybe two teams who would be interested enough in Tanaka to be willing to carve out an exemption like that. Not nearly enough teams to vote *for* that exemption to get him over here.
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12-05-2013, 08:38 PM | #436 |
Coordinator
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If you call it an "exemption" it does sound unlikely. But since these rules aren't even finalized I could see MLB "delaying their implementation" and effectively grandfathering in Tanaka. Idk what other players timelines are, but Daisuke appears to have been posted on November 14th (or, actually, the Red Sox "won" the bidding for him that day, so he had to have been posted earlier) with the process finalized and contract signed on December 13th. Since the winter meetings are starting soon and there's still the 30-day negotiating period, there needs to be some resolution soon one way or the other.
Last edited by BishopMVP : 12-05-2013 at 08:38 PM. |
12-06-2013, 07:31 AM | #437 |
Coordinator
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Meanwhile, Red Sox sign Mujica for 2 years, $9.5m. Love the signing and fits their bullpen philosophy perfectly - Mujica, Koji, Tazawa, and Badenhop ranked #1, #3, #7, and #12 in lowest walk rates of 135 qualified MLB RP in 2013.
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12-06-2013, 07:45 AM | #438 | |
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http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...icle-1.1539636
Quote:
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12-06-2013, 08:14 AM | #439 |
Hall Of Famer
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Maybe this will end Jay Z's ridiculous attempts to be a sports agent?
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12-06-2013, 08:19 AM | #440 |
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12-06-2013, 08:28 AM | #441 | |
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Yeah, that's basically what I meant.
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12-06-2013, 10:08 AM | #442 |
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Looks like Cano 10 year 240 in seattle is a done deal...
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12-06-2013, 10:12 AM | #443 |
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10 years for a 31 year old? Holy crap...
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12-06-2013, 10:16 AM | #444 |
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Jay Z must have channeled Suge Knight.
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12-06-2013, 10:19 AM | #445 |
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12-06-2013, 10:36 AM | #446 |
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I don't believe the details most of these reports, but I'd like to believe the M's owner "exploded" at 10 years/$252 million, but then when Jay Z "backed down" to 10 years/$240 million, he rushed to grab his checkbook.
Last edited by molson : 12-06-2013 at 10:36 AM. |
12-06-2013, 10:42 AM | #447 |
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Mets and Granderson agreed to a 4 year deal. Not sure of the $, I remember seeing $17 million yesterday and couldn't believe that.
edit: Rosenthal says $15MM per. Yuck. Last edited by Logan : 12-06-2013 at 10:46 AM. |
12-06-2013, 11:01 AM | #448 | |
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Hmmmm... I mean the Mets can afford it, but Granderson's 2012 and 2013 are very worrisome.
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12-06-2013, 11:32 AM | #449 |
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Have any giant contracts in baseball ever really worked out?
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12-06-2013, 11:33 AM | #450 |
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