2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Dutch]

Awwwwwwwww....(turrible).

[larrymcg421]

[flere-imsaho]

Oooooo: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Both Trump & Cruz cut my taxes a little over half (Cruz cuts it more), there's pretty much no change for me under Clinton, and Sanders more than doubles my annual tax bill.

Well, I'm totally voting for Cruz now.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Oooooo: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Both Trump & Cruz cut my taxes a little over half (Cruz cuts it more), there's pretty much no change for me under Clinton, and Sanders more than doubles my annual tax bill.

Well, I'm totally voting for Cruz now.

I know who our voters that are part of our our over-population problem will vote for.

[Ben E Lou]

Trump campaign manager charged with battery over reporter incident | Fox News

[Kodos]

http://www.xojane.com/issues/stephan...paign-defector

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

http://www.xojane.com/issues/stephan...paign-defector

I hate to tell her this, but this won't do anything to hurt his campaign.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I hate to tell her this, but this won't do anything to hurt his campaign.

Maybe she just doesn't want to get assaulted?

[Toddzilla]

neither will that asshat getting charged affect anything

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I hate to tell her this, but this won't do anything to hurt his campaign.

I don't think you'd really hate to tell her that.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

neither will that asshat getting charged affect anything

That's true as well.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I know who our voters that are part of our our over-population problem will vote for.

No, I don't...And who are the voters that are part of our over-population problem? You say "part of", so that means that the blame is shared, right?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I hate to tell her this, but this won't do anything to hurt his campaign.

In large part because in spite of the reservations that some (many?) of his supporters have, he's still not only the best alternative in the race but he's also the only remaining alternative in the race.

He's all the party has that's bringing potential meaningful value at this point, sad situation that might be.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

In large part because in spite of the reservations that some (many?) of his supporters have, he's still not only the best alternative in the race but he's also the only remaining alternative in the race.

He's all the party has that's bringing potential meaningful value at this point, sad situation that might be.

He's definitely bringing value for the democrats because he has zero chance to win a general election.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Subby

He's definitely bringing value for the democrats because he has zero chance to win a general election.

Let's hold off on that. He may be behind now, but Hillary has clearly shown she's one of the few that can out-stupid Trump given a long enough leash.

[Solecismic]

Scott Walker with the expected Cruz endorsement in Wisconsin, which is a week from today.

Polls are showing this is a real three-way race. Stuff is starting to stick to Teflon Don, and he definitely doesn't have momentum. It can't help that the figurative match-up polls for the general election are showing a massacre, particularly when he's tested.

Wisconsin has 42 delegates, of which 18 are WTA and each of the eight congressional districts has 3 - those are WTA as well. So in a tight race, a point or two may make a huge difference.

This is one of the few open primaries remaining, so if Trump fails here, it means there has been a real shift in his popularity and there's probably no way he reaches that 1,237 goal. However, if he does win, a lot of ABT people are going to be rather angry that Kasich remains in the race.

One thing to note, and the situation was quite fluid at the time, but the RCP national average on the day Rubio left the race was 32-26-18 (Trump-Cruz-Kasich). Today, it's 42-32-19. Trump was in a mini-trough at the time, so it's not that dramatic a shift, but it seems like Rubio's support didn't go where we thought it would. Though Kasich had a big bump in the prior week, so maybe the perception is partly due to how rolling averages work.

It's interesting that each race seems so important, even in the grand scheme. It's been a long time since that was the case.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Subby

He's definitely bringing value for the democrats because he has zero chance to win a general election.

If he can't then there likely won't be a (recognizable) country left for it to matter all that much longer anyway.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Subby

He's definitely bringing value for the democrats because he has zero chance to win a general election.

It would also be our first general election between two candidates who have documented positions of being pro-gun control, pro-choice, and pro-universal health care.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by molson

It would also be our first general election between two candidates who have documented positions of being pro-gun control, pro-choice, and pro-universal health care.

Aww, give him a break, Trump was a young, foolish 60 year old when he had those views.

[SackAttack]

I was gonna vote for Cruz, but Kasich being viable has me reconsidering that. Mostly because of the remaining candidates he's the one I'd most prefer to see get the nomination.

(I know, there are plenty of non-Republicans who want Trump to get it because WHEE LANDSLIDE but I'm of the firm belief that YOU DO NOT FUCKING TAUNT MURPHY)

[Edward64]

TBH, I really didn't see anything that was egregious. Not saying it didn't happen the way she said, but the tape really doesn't show much.

Trump Campaign Manager Charged With Battery Of Reporter He Called ‘Delusional'

Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, was charged with battery Tuesday following an incident in which he allegedly grabbed a reporter, Michelle Fields, at a campaign event earlier this month.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

TBH, I really didn't see anything that was egregious. Not saying it didn't happen the way she said, but the tape really doesn't show much.

Trump Campaign Manager Charged With Battery Of Reporter He Called ‘Delusional'

On one hand, grabbing someone roughly like that is violence, and there should be consequences. But on the other hand, I've been a member of the press, and if you're moving toward someone and there are a bunch of other press people moving toward him, you bump into people and you can assume security people may grab you or push you out of the way. I think if this weren't an important member of Trump's campaign staff, this wouldn't be a story even if it were true.

That said, I think it is true. And in this day and age, when people often enter the field of journalism because they have strong partisan feelings, it's easy to let yourself become the center of attention if you think it will advance your cause. And in this case, the cause is essentially protest against a minor blog (Breitbart) showing favoritism toward a candidate she doesn't particularly like.

I don't know what the right result is here. It's a tough call. I've had people threaten me as a reporter. It's not fun. I've been roughly grabbed while working (Brent Musberger, who seemed to think press boxes were built only to house one working member of the press), and that isn't much fun, either. But these things happen, and I don't know what the line should be. What if Lewandowsky had grabbed her breast instead?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

No, I don't...And who are the voters that are part of our over-population problem? You say "part of", so that means that the blame is shared, right?

Able-bodied (and mind) Americans that want other able-bodied (and mind) Americans to pay for them so they don't have to work. Be that 1 person, 10 people, 1 million people, or more...that's who I'm saying will definitely vote Bernie.

You can tell me all day long how those people don't exist, but I wouldn't believe you.

[Ben E Lou]

Watching the town hall. Cruz seems incapable of being conversational. Everything he says is in "debate voice."

[cuervo72]

I don't know if that's true, Dutch.

Now, I'm not going to say that being on food stamps implies that one doesn't want to work. But it's an easy social program to point to.

Food Stamp Usage Across the Country - Interactive Map - NYTimes.com

Going by that interactive map, whites who receive food stamps (at least as of 2009) look like they are concentrated in KY, TN, WV, MO, OR, and ME. OR and ME, ok - those are areas where Bernie fares well. The others? I don't know.

For blacks, well, the map overall is a lot more blue. A lot of that is in the south, where it's been pretty well established that blacks are voting overwhelmingly for Clinton.

The young are also voting for Sanders. So all of these millenials are going to college and incurring debt...because they don't want to work?

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Able-bodied (and mind) Americans that want other able-bodied (and mind) Americans to pay for them so they don't have to work. Be that 1 person, 10 people, 1 million people, or more...that's who I'm saying will definitely vote Bernie.

You can tell me all day long how those people don't exist, but I wouldn't believe you.

I have a sister-in-law like that. It drives me insane.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Able-bodied (and mind) Americans that want other able-bodied (and mind) Americans to pay for them so they don't have to work. Be that 1 person, 10 people, 1 million people, or more...that's who I'm saying will definitely vote Bernie.

You can tell me all day long how those people don't exist, but I wouldn't believe you.

My SILs 2nd husband is like this. Pisses me off he takes my tax dollars. I wish lazy wasnt considered a disability.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

So all of these millennials...

Like I said, maybe it's just 1 person out there...(not "all").

[JPhillips]

I was just in eastern KY for about a week and I assure you there are Trump voters on disability and welfare.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I was just in eastern KY for about a week and I assure you there are Trump voters on disability and welfare.

Of course they are.

And just in the knick of time!

States moving to restore work requirements for food stamp recipients | Fox News

then-President Bill Clinton said the goal was to make welfare “a second chance, not a way of life.”

-- What!? Say it ain't so, Bill. People aren't like that.

[cuervo72]

Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Also, from the Fox article:

States are moving to once again require able-bodied adults to put in work hours in exchange for food stamps, after the requirements largely were suspended by the Obama administration.

But during the last recession, President Obama allowed states to suspend a requirement that able-bodied adults without children work at least 20 hours per week or participate in a training program to receive benefits for more than three months.

So which is it, scribe? Did he suspend them, or did he allow states to suspend them? And if the latter, isn't leaving things up to states what a lot of Republicans want?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

So which is it, scribe? Did he suspend them, or did he allow states to suspend them? And if the latter, isn't leaving things up to states what a lot of Republicans want?

I'm not sure how you can find out other than asking him.

William La Jeunesse | Fox News

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

And if the latter, isn't leaving things up to states what a lot of Republicans want?

Not when the states do stupid stuff.

I have no issue with a strong federal hand OR a strong state's rights position, I just want somebody to get shit right. I give less than a damn who does it.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm not sure how you can find out other than asking him.

William La Jeunesse | Fox News

Oh, I know they were his words. I just think they could have been written a bit better.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Not when the states do stupid stuff.

I have no issue with a strong federal hand OR a strong state's rights position, I just want somebody to get shit right. I give less than a damn who does it.

You are definitely no-nonsense.

(And yeah, states are pretty much guaranteed to do stupid shit. Red or blue.)

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by tarcone

My SILs 2nd husband is like this. Pisses me off he takes my tax dollars. I wish lazy wasnt considered a disability.

given how moving people to disability gets them off the books for states, I think we are a long way from disability reform.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Oh, I know they were his words. I just think they could have been written a bit better.

I am always a bit amused and sometimes even concerned how willing I am to read something I figure I will agree with without being too critical and yet, when I don't agree with it I become Editor-in-chief. We may have the same trait there.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Let's hold off on that. He may be behind now, but Hillary has clearly shown she's one of the few that can out-stupid Trump given a long enough leash.

Examples? Equivalent examples?

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Able-bodied (and mind) Americans that want other able-bodied (and mind) Americans to pay for them so they don't have to work.

Wasn't one of the rallying cries of the Tea Party (back in the days of its formation): "Keep your government hands out of my Medicare?"

Those folks, and the rednecks on disability for non-disabling ailments are the people I think of when I think of people feeling entitled to the taxes I pay.

Maybe it's just my personal experience. When I lived & worked in Chicago I had a team that included many black people from the south side, and their stories, and their families' stories were ones of hard work, self-sufficiency, and, dare I say it "bootstraps".

Now that I'm back in Maine I know far too many white people who are content to live off the government teat based on mystery ailments while at the same time being huge supporters of Cruz or Trump and vitriolic opponents of anyone left of center-right.


We've been fed a narrative of black "welfare queens" by the GOP since Reagan. I'm sure examples exist. But it's time to realize there are plenty of other people out there feeding off the system, and a very large number of them are white and die-hard Republicans.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Wasn't one of the rallying cries of the Tea Party (back in the days of its formation): "Keep your government hands out of my Medicare?"

Those folks, and the rednecks on disability for non-disabling ailments are the people I think of when I think of people feeling entitled to the taxes I pay.

Maybe it's just my personal experience. When I lived & worked in Chicago I had a team that included many black people from the south side, and their stories, and their families' stories were ones of hard work, self-sufficiency, and, dare I say it "bootstraps".

Now that I'm back in Maine I know far too many white people who are content to live off the government teat based on mystery ailments while at the same time being huge supporters of Cruz or Trump and vitriolic opponents of anyone left of center-right.


We've been fed a narrative of black "welfare queens" by the GOP since Reagan. I'm sure examples exist. But it's time to realize there are plenty of other people out there feeding off the system, and a very large number of them are white and die-hard Republicans.

We have ALL been fed narratives of varying degrees. I'm perfectly okay with leaving race out of it.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Those folks, and the rednecks on disability for non-disabling ailments are the people I think of when I think of people feeling entitled to the taxes I pay.

I probably have mentioned before about my aunt who...well, I don't know what she does. I know she dropped out of HS, has tried and failed to get a GED, and the only job I am aware of her having was at a DD. But she is always posting about going to NJ or the shore, mentions something about disability every now and then (also note: she is overweight). She shared this the other day: https://www.facebook.com/BreakUpIRS/...type=1&theater

I have no idea what the logic is here.

[PilotMan]

No argument was ever won by moralizing one way or the other who is allowed to be poor and who isn't. The fact is that we have poor, who live like shit, even if they live on government money. I'm perfectly ok with money going to support some shitty quality of life for someone that's better than living in the street. Some people look lazy, but have real problems that were never addressed.

I know I've mentioned my oldest son, who is disabled, and on Medicaid. Without us pushing and pushing and pushing he never would have even graduated high school. With the disability he was have no possibility of even considering independent living. If we had been shittier parents he would have been out a long time ago, and more likely that not, living on the street. He was very high risk. He was just disabled enough that if you looked you could see it, but at first glance you'd never give it a though. Many, many homeless are in the exact same boat.

There isn't any charitable aid organization in the world that can support people like the government can. The common good is important. It can't just be a world of self righteous, self serving, individuals with blinders on. I'm much more concerned with the millions and billions being lifted in white collar crime, than I am about the thousands that are spent allowing people to live basic, not quite so shitty, lives.

[spleen1015]

Its all about perspective and experiences.

PilotMan, you have a good case for government assistance and I don't have an issue with my tax dollars helping your son.

I do have an issue with my tax dollars helping to support a mom of 3 children, fathered by 3 different men, who is fully capable of working but instead insists on collecting welfare. Not only collecting welfare but collecting it from 2 states at the same time because she has lived in both states and knows the system.

These are the people I don't want to support and in my experiences we have more of the former leaching us and not cases like your son.

[flere-imsaho]

+1 to what spleen said.

Look, I'm a staunch Democrat with an income well into the six figures. I clearly don't have a philosophical issue with my taxes going to help others, generally-speaking.

I do have an issue with the far too many white guys I know here in Maine who get a disability check due to some sort of "back pain" but still manage to ride their ATVs, dirt bikes and snowmobiles regularly while congregating in the bar each night.

[PilotMan]

Your example is readily given and elicits a very emotional response. The problem with it is that it's meant to be taken as the majority of cases. That's simply not the case.

According to a study by UC Berkley, 56% of households that receive welfare already have someone who works. Here are where they work:



The other thing that I think people miss about welfare is that it's a direct cashflow injection to businesses in poor and depressed areas. People act like that money is simply wasted and gone. The reality is that it all, ALL, flows back to businesses, many of which are small and family run. Most are in poor and/or inner city areas that use that support to keep providing services to local communities.

You would think that would be a narrative that is brought up, but for some reason, it's lost in the anger of the single, welfare mom.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

+1 to what spleen said.

Look, I'm a staunch Democrat with an income well into the six figures. I clearly don't have a philosophical issue with my taxes going to help others, generally-speaking.

I do have an issue with the far too many white guys I know here in Maine who get a disability check due to some sort of "back pain" but still manage to ride their ATVs, dirt bikes and snowmobiles regularly while congregating in the bar each night.

Maybe you could start here:

How to Report Social Security Disability Benefits Fraud

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Your example is readily given and elicits a very emotional response. The problem with it is that it's meant to be taken as the majority of cases. That's simply not the case.

Again, I don't have a problem with government aid programs, generally-speaking. I was responding to this:

Originally Posted by Dutch

Able-bodied (and mind) Americans that want other able-bodied (and mind) Americans to pay for them so they don't have to work. Be that 1 person, 10 people, 1 million people, or more...that's who I'm saying will definitely vote Bernie.

There are plenty of demographics that are routinely attacked with this argument, but more often than not it's demographics that also happen to vote Democratic. Case in point above.

My point is that there's plenty of Republican-voting demographics who we could consider leeches on the system as well, and if we're going to have a narrative about inner-city black welfare queens, we might as well have a narrative on rural white trash disability scammers.

Or, as you point out, we could recognize the fact that most of the cases are much more nuanced anyway and that, as I'd argue, it's better to keep the concept of welfare & disability even if there are leeches, then throw it away because of some leeches.

[PilotMan]

Yeah, and I was more pointing to spleen's response rather than yours. So it's all good.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The other thing that I think people miss about welfare is that it's a direct cashflow injection to businesses in poor and depressed areas. People act like that money is simply wasted and gone. The reality is that it all, ALL, flows back to businesses, many of which are small and family run. Most are in poor and/or inner city areas that use that support to keep providing services to local communities.

You would think that would be a narrative that is brought up, but for some reason, it's lost in the anger of the single, welfare mom.

Indeed and that is important to consider. The welfare money is something that gets spent and that consumption spurs local businesses.

Anyways, getting back to the greater narrative of this thread, it appears that Trump supporters are ones that are more accepting of welfare and food stamps. The folks that are into cutting benefits are definitely on the outs in this election.

[molson]

How can you distinguish between the leeches and the truly needy in the implementation of these programs? You could hire more investigators and prosecutors, which costs money too. (I think hiring more people to enforce the proper implementation of government policy is generally a good thing, but I'm pretty sure people more conservative than me would be wary of making the government "bigger".)

And what do you do with the leaches? Frankly, I'm not sure I want some of these people taking my order at McDonald's. And the worst offenders probably couldn't hold a job long in the current job market anyway. I don't think anybody but the really far right is saying that there shouldn't be ANY social net for the very bottom. But if you really resent these people who don't contribute anything, a higher minimum wage makes sense. Then the poorest people are the ones who could be contributing but aren't, then a comfortable notch above them are the people who are actually working and the people who would work but really can't.

I get mocked here for proclaiming to being moderate sometimes, but it's in situations like this that it makes so much sense. How can you favor a low (or zero) minimum wage, when you want people to work and resent those who don't and who still make just as much (or more) as working people? Doesn't it make sense to give the workers an edge over the people who don't want to work, if that's your mindset?