COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[CrimsonFox]

Very sad story out of Wisconsin...

After Decades of Service, Five Nuns Die as Virus Sweeps Through Convent

These nursing homes and care centers are getting ravaged. There doesn't seem a way to save them

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Last week, 2 million chickens were going to be destroyed in the Delmarva because there was no place to process the chickens. This is similar to what we were seeing with oil last week, we have plenty of the resource (in the case of oil there was no where to store it, here there is no place to process it so prices plunged).

I know it's not this simple but in a perfect world we had enough capacity to give all the chickens etc. to food banks, homeless shelters etc. first before literally throwing them away.

Other options:

1) Give them to other countries if they want them
2) Give some to local farmers, residents etc. who want to increase their stock (you come pick it up)
3) Give them or sell them at cost to canning companies (e.g. Costco sells canned chicken)

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Not sure why they haven't announced anything, but Amazon is definitely setting up some sort of testing program. Ideally it will be voluntary & antigen/antibody tests instead of full testing, but there are rumors otherwise and not hard answer yet Amazon confirms COVID-19 testing program for employees in Fresno - Business Insider (And yes, I googled that because I literally saw a roped off corner with computers that had a screen saying employee Covid testing here at my Charlotte facility, so it is happening nationwide and it will be happening very soon is my guess.)

Amazon doing nationwide testing of that sort on a semi-regular basis would actually be amazing data for the country & many cities to use about community spread going forward as states re-open, and a decent data point about current spread (though many Amazon's probably have clusters & much higher exposure rates than GenPop). If they're testing for actually having Corona I'm a little less excited for that as a matter of public policy since it seems like it could be competing for tests vs medical personnel/older people who are at higher risk, but I'm still definitely down personally. (And hey, maybe Bezos has already scaled up company testing labs & designed Amazon's own test.)

Where I work has talked about how they've done more than 1% of the tests in Texas. That's great for us and our "customers" but it's absolutely embarrassing and dangerous for a state our size as we shouldn't account for anywhere near close to that.

SI

[CrimsonFox]

FUCK YEAH!!!!!!

YOU GO DEWINE! YOU TOTALLY ROCK!

Ohio's 'Stay Safe Ohio' order extended for another month


I will vote for this guy from now on.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

FUCK YEAH!!!!!!

YOU GO DEWINE! YOU TOTALLY ROCK!

Ohio's 'Stay Safe Ohio' order extended for another month


I will vote for this guy from now on.

That's great for your state, but with a lot of states reopening (including mine, Georgia) with very little restrictions are states going to start enforcing borders? If you continue to lock your state down, then you let in daily flights, travel from the non locked down states, how do you prevent the spread picking back up. I just think letting the states dictate this is problematic. I know a lot of states are looking at a regional reopening approach, but that doesn't address people coming in from other parts of the country.

One thing even with my state easing restrictions, a lot of the businesses that I go to are not opening yet. My daughters gymnastics place are planning on opening May 11th and sent out a survey to see how many would send their child or if they would want to continue doing the ZOOM classes. My wife asked me what I thought and I said 11 days from now could be a lot different so its hard to say. We answered ZOOM for now because I'd want to see where we stand then with all the reopening. My barber reopened last Friday and I desperately need a haircut, but I'm not going anywhere yet (still doing grocery pickup and delivery, not going into stores. Not sure when I will feel comfortable doing those things.

I guess the hope is that the lockdowns we just endured slowed the spread enough and that hospital capacity is ramped up that even by reopening, the system won't get overwhelmed. Also, got to hope with everyone wearing masks and just being more aware that there wouldn't be the need to go back to the complete lockdown.

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, Georgia is a mess.

On the bright side, our Regional Director (as some of you know I work for the US Department of Labor) extended our telework until May 31. After our national office gave this vague we'll be on telework 'until further notice'. Seems like the federal government is also farming this out to the regions.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yeah, Georgia is a mess.

Do you know how good hospital capacity is at the moment? Do you expect things to get much worse now? I think at least from what I am seeing, a lot of business are being much more conservative and not listening to our moron governor.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by grdawg

Do you know how good hospital capacity is at the moment? Do you expect things to get much worse now? I think at least from what I am seeing, a lot of business are being much more conservative and not listening to our moron governor.

Emory is still at ICU limits, but manageable. I can't speak for other hospitals. I think aside from Albany (which is in worse shape than Atlanta), hospital capacity should be ok for more rural areas - although those can easily get used up if people from Atlanta area hospitals have to be moved.

In most of Fulton and Dekalb counties most businesses seem to be remaining shut down or take out only. In some of the outer lying areas of those counties - North Fulton, East Dekalb, a few things are opening. In Avondale and Decatur, near where I live, there seems to be one business opening back up - Bad Daddy's Burger Bar.

[ISiddiqui]

Well I just texted my friend at Emory. He said so many providers are getting sick that they are putting their hospitalists in the ICU to make ends meet. Fun.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I know it's not this simple but in a perfect world we had enough capacity to give all the chickens etc. to food banks, homeless shelters etc. first before literally throwing them away.

Other options:

1) Give them to other countries if they want them
2) Give some to local farmers, residents etc. who want to increase their stock (you come pick it up)
3) Give them or sell them at cost to canning companies (e.g. Costco sells canned chicken)

None of those three options are feasible when there is nobody to:
1) Kill the chickens
2) Pluck feathers
3) Gut them
4) Cut off the waste parts

Secondly, if chickens can’t be processed, why would farmers want more of them? Poultry is mostly a vertically integrated thing anyway so there aren’t lots of independent chicken farmers out there to pick up excess chickens and then put feed ($$$) into them for no gain and hope there is a market for them later. If a chicken isn’t butchered at a young age, the meat isn’t fit for much besides soup anyway.

[miked]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well I just texted my friend at Emory. He said so many providers are getting sick that they are putting their hospitalists in the ICU to make ends meet. Fun.

We've been covering from different departments for a few weeks. Housing on campus is now for sick nurses/doctors/etc. In a few weeks we should see another spike.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lungs

None of those three options are feasible when there is nobody to:
1) Kill the chickens
2) Pluck feathers
3) Gut them
4) Cut off the waste parts

Secondly, if chickens can’t be processed, why would farmers want more of them? Poultry is mostly a vertically integrated thing anyway so there aren’t lots of independent chicken farmers out there to pick up excess chickens and then put feed ($$$) into them for no gain and hope there is a market for them later. If a chicken isn’t butchered at a young age, the meat isn’t fit for much besides soup anyway.

Is this work typically done by illegals or people with questionable citizenship?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by lungs

None of those three options are feasible when there is nobody to:
1) Kill the chickens
2) Pluck feathers
3) Gut them
4) Cut off the waste parts

Secondly, if chickens can’t be processed, why would farmers want more of them? Poultry is mostly a vertically integrated thing anyway so there aren’t lots of independent chicken farmers out there to pick up excess chickens and then put feed ($$$) into them for no gain and hope there is a market for them later. If a chicken isn’t butchered at a young age, the meat isn’t fit for much besides soup anyway.

This, and the same goes for pigs and cows (although there are local butchers and more local farmers for these in various areas. We normally get 1/4 to 1/2 of a cow every year from a local farmer if he has excess).

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is this work typically done by illegals or people with questionable citizenship?

Depends upon where you are and who the company is. Further north, not super likely. If it is in Texas, it would not surprise me in the least.

[spleen1015]

Indiana is going to reopen in a staged approach.

I think I'll just stay home.

[albionmoonlight]

Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say

Previous reports of possible re-infections look to have instead been caused by body continuing to shed virus.

That won't get headlines, but it's very very very good news (or, maybe more accurately, a refutation of something that would have been horrible news).

[sterlingice]

I really hope that's true

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

In most of Fulton and Dekalb counties most businesses seem to be remaining shut down or take out only. In some of the outer lying areas of those counties - North Fulton, East Dekalb, a few things are opening. In Avondale and Decatur, near where I live, there seems to be one business opening back up - Bad Daddy's Burger Bar.

I still think opening up is a bottom up thing more than a top down issue. The states can scream about opening for business but as long as the virus is around, people are going to stay home. I think I saw some video of people going to restaurants in Georgia, but it was small. Barbers and hair salons seemed busy but that's likely because so many people have gone without for a couple months.

The only way you get the economy back is by controlling or eliminating the virus. We don't seem to have any desire to control it and I think their games with testing and reporting is just going to hurt the recovery.

Kind of like what's happening in Brazil. They kept everything open and claimed it's all good. But now that the bodies are piling up, everyone is pissed and staying home.

[rjolley]

I like California's plan that was laid out recently: Gavin Newsom on Twitter: "CA is flattening the curve, but the reality is #COVID19 is not going away soon.

Our re-opening must be gradual, guided by public health and science, and will be done in the following STAGES:"

4 stages. Appears thought out and reasonable. No dates, but that's ok. There have been other notifications that it'll be based on better testing, data, and guidance from various experts.

At least it's a thought out plan.

Also, I like the state's COVID-19 website: California Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

[whomario]

Because it angers me people do this and political leadership fails to adress it.:
The March idea that the curve is sufficiently flat juuuust below the theoretical capacity (beds/ventilators) is simply bullshit given what we now know and what it looks like in the field.
Covid19 needs a ton of space and personnel (all of whome can not switch back and forth easily) per patient, meaning 20% of possible patients being covid takes away a lot more than 20% capacity.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I really hope that's true

SI

Had been suspected to be the case all along, so that basically confirms what scientific 'common sense' figured so i am pretty certain this is now put to rest.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

As someone that is now selling into the industry this is the issue. Our projects that were underway are continuing, if the project was waiting for funding or did not have the green light, they are on hold because the processors are trying to figure out how to keep running rather than trying to integrate new processes into their plant.

Not sure if it was here or somewhere else, if you know a local butcher in a lot of cases you can get meat cheap because the ranchers are trying to offload the mature animals so they do not need to maintain mature animals.

Last week, 2 million chickens were going to be destroyed in the Delmarva because there was no place to process the chickens. This is similar to what we were seeing with oil last week, we have plenty of the resource (in the case of oil there was no where to store it, here there is no place to process it so prices plunged).

Processing capacity is down but it's not stopped. There are still plenty of companies that have done things right and are still open for business.

The issue with Tyson and Smithfield is they were negligent from the start. They're throwing out scary stuff to get the feds to eliminate the billion or so in liabilities they are likely on the hook for from dead employees (and their families). Smithfield was offering $500 to employees who made every shift which is as moronic as it gets.

Like I mentioned before, my brother works in the field. The factories at his company are working at fully capacity. But they offer paid sick leave, PPE, have re-done the layout to allow for spacing, and take temperature at the door. When they had a few cases at a factory, they closed it down for a few days to sanitize everything and then opened on limited basis with proper spacing. Now it's back to full operation.

If there is a shortage, it's because Smithfield and Tyson was negligent.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by whomario

Had been suspected to be the case all along, so that basically confirms what scientific 'common sense' figured so i am pretty certain this is now put to rest.

Yes, but with so many unknowns with this virus, it's nice to get some data in the confirmation column that fits into the "good news" category.

SI

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is this work typically done by illegals or people with questionable citizenship?

From my experience, probably. Even in the north. Go to a packing plant in Green Bay and you're going to see mostly Latinos. Deduce what you want about their legality but as somebody well experienced in hiring from the Latino population in Wisconsin, I'd say the odds are pretty high most are undocumented.

Originally Posted by Warhammer

This, and the same goes for pigs and cows (although there are local butchers and more local farmers for these in various areas. We normally get 1/4 to 1/2 of a cow every year from a local farmer if he has excess).

I thought my Wagyu beef from the last steer I ever owned was just that, the last of it. Then I just found out yesterday that the guy I gave my last four steers still had the remaining three. So I'm getting another Wagyu and he's getting the other two. Wagyu.... best meat ever

[lungs]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If there is a shortage, it's because Smithfield and Tyson was negligent.

From what I saw, you can add Brazilian owned JBS to the list of negligent companies. Of course JBS is just going to bring Brazilian beef in, so I truly doubt a shortage is on the horizon.

Funny story, when I had 150 milking cows left, I took bids from JBS and American Dressed Meats to buy them. JBS sent out an extremely attractive young lady in the attempt to compensate for their bid coming in a few cents short of Dressed Meats. The trump card for Dressed Meats was that I knew their trucker, a fellow named Smoothy. I knew we'd have those cows out of there in no time, working with Smoothy. So the better price and better trucker won out.

[Edward64]

Kudos to Gilead for (seemingly) doing the right thing without regard to profits. What they don't make in profits, I hope they make in recognition & goodwill.

Now let's hope the drug really is significantly effective.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

The Food and Drug Administration on Friday granted an emergency use authorization to Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir, a decade-old experimental therapy first tested on Ebola disease patients, as a COVID-19 treatment.
:
:
“Under the emergency-use authorization, one could charge for the product,” CEO O’Day told investors on the earnings call. “We made a decision, as you know, to donate 1.5 million vials, which is the entirety of our supply through the early summer.” The vials encompass 140,000 10-day treatment courses. O’Day later said during the call that donating the investigational therapy “is the right thing to do at this time.”

Analysts later stressed their concerns about the company’s lack of clarity about revenue eneration for a drug brought to market under emergency powers during a global pandemic with huge public health implications.

[CrimsonFox]

And if you rearrange the letters of CORONA you get RACOON (which is very very close)

[tarcone]

I prefer Trash Panda

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Kudos to Gilead for (seemingly) doing the right thing without regard to profits. What they don't make in profits, I hope they make in recognition & goodwill.

Now let's hope the drug really is significantly effective.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

From what I've read so far it's looking more like a building block than a knock out punch. Kind of like the first hiv drugs. Definite step forward but not THE step most likely. Still any help we can get we'll welcome. Also it takes a long time to produce and manufacture I guess as well.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

From what I've read so far it's looking more like a building block than a knock out punch. Kind of like the first hiv drugs. Definite step forward but not THE step most likely. Still any help we can get we'll welcome. Also it takes a long time to produce and manufacture I guess as well.

Yeah said December before they would have 500000 doses so not sure it is anything more than help for the most sick now and to come.

[stevew]

I read some article from a chemist(can’t find link) and it basically said that this drug is a complete bear to make at this point. All kinds of complicated reactions. Lots of waste to get to purity.

[stevew]

OMG! We Made One Gram of Remdesivir! | American Council on Science and Health

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Kudos to Gilead for (seemingly) doing the right thing without regard to profits. What they don't make in profits, I hope they make in recognition & goodwill.

Now let's hope the drug really is significantly effective.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

Your tax dollars paid for the research at UAB to develop it. It is the least they could do.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

And if you rearrange the letters of CORONA you get RACOON (which is very very close)

Funny, I like this!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by stevew

OMG! We Made One Gram of Remdesivir! | American Council on Science and Health

Thanks. I read the first couple paragraphs and then my stopped ... but appreciate the link. He had another post which talked about the effectiveness ...

Remdesivir 1st Controlled Trial Is No Cause For Celebration | American Council on Science and Health

We now have data from the first trial and I'm more than a little disappointed. Remdesivir is effective in treating COVID-19 but it isn't anything close to a wonder drug. Let's call it a good start. More on that later.
:
:
To put this in perspective let's consider the therapies for two known RNA virus medications, Tamiflu and Sovaldi. Tamiflu is marginally helpful for treating influenza, but only when taken early in the infection. Even so, it knocks one day off the time until symptoms cease – from seven days to six. By contrast, Sovaldi, a nucleoside inhibitor like remdesivir, became the first successful direct-acting antiviral drug to cure hepatitis C infections (1). Sovaldi was a game-changer. Remdesivir is not. Remdesivir is more like Tamiflu than Sovaldi.

Here are the data that have been released so far.

• Patients who got remdesivir recovered 31% faster (11 days vs 15 days) than those who got a placebo.
• There was a relatively modest improvement in survival for the drug-treated group (8.0% mortality rate) compared to those who received a placebo (11.6%), but these results were just short of statistical significance (p = 0.059). This is probably real nonetheless.

Why am I so pessimistic? Because as things stand now, remdesivir will have little or no impact on our (new) daily lives – social distancing, mask use, and fear... Most likely it will be just a better option for people who are already ill and have been hospitalized by COVID-19, and only by four days. Don't get me wrong; the decreased hospital stay (and the lower mortality rate, should the numbers hold up) is not insignificant for those who are already ill enough to be hospitalized. I just don't see any way that remdesivir will keep people out of the hospital at this time, so in this sense, the drug has failed.
:
:
Unfortunately, based on this first trial, it is doubtful that remdesivir will be the "magic pill" people have been hoping for. Remdesivir is not something people will be able to swallow at the first sign of COVID disease and feel better.

Great news on getting patients out of the hospital quicker but somewhat disappointed in the small reduction in mortality.

I do disagree with the last bolded statement. Although it may not keep people out of hospital, helping them recover quicker helps healthcare workers, hospital capacity, available equipment & medicines etc. and future patients.

[tarcone]

There was a guy in St Louis county that had the virus and was experiencing organ failure and the doctors gave him a 20% chance to live. He got the plasma treatment and started recovering almost immediately. He will be going home next week after being in the hospital for 5 weeks.

First COVID-19 patient in St. Louis-area to receive experimental treatment makes remarkable recovery | FOX2now.com

[CrimsonFox]

wait...they gave people that were IN THE HOSPITAL for COVID-19....a PLACEBO?!?!?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wait...they gave people that were IN THE HOSPITAL for COVID-19....a PLACEBO?!?!?

Don't they have to when testing a drug?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Don't they have to when testing a drug?

Yes, of course, nothing to see here. If amidst a trial there seems to be clear evidence of the treatment being effective and important, it's at that point where an ethical matter arises. But not at the outset for a completely unknown treatment.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Processing capacity is down but it's not stopped. There are still plenty of companies that have done things right and are still open for business.

The issue with Tyson and Smithfield is they were negligent from the start. They're throwing out scary stuff to get the feds to eliminate the billion or so in liabilities they are likely on the hook for from dead employees (and their families). Smithfield was offering $500 to employees who made every shift which is as moronic as it gets.

Like I mentioned before, my brother works in the field. The factories at his company are working at fully capacity. But they offer paid sick leave, PPE, have re-done the layout to allow for spacing, and take temperature at the door. When they had a few cases at a factory, they closed it down for a few days to sanitize everything and then opened on limited basis with proper spacing. Now it's back to full operation.

If there is a shortage, it's because Smithfield and Tyson was negligent.

Much of it depends upon the management of the plant. Tyson I’ve seen well run and poorly run. Smithfield, they are pretty poor all the way around.

As an example we’re working on a few expansions at few facilities, at one everything with the project has been above board, there have been zero games on the sourcing side, I am fully confident the system will work. At another facility, they are trying to shoestring the project, simple stuff they are arguing with the contractor about having to pay for (crap like can’t liquid magically go from one tank to another). I have little faith it will be a good installation.

The big problem, we (myself and the 40 yr industry vet I am eventually taking over from) were discussing with my company’s management yesterday and explaining how the plants work. They were floored they weren’t more automated. Essentially, most plants you have people working should to shoulder next to each other on the line. Most are looking for one type of cut to make or inspecting for one type of blemish (varies a bit by plant). The reason is the different body shape, size, etc., from animal to animal. This is different from the vegetable industry where everything is more consistent and you can have machines do much of the processing.

Anyway, getting back to the meat plants, depending upon the age of the plant, you may not have a way to put shields or barriers next to people. It’s not as simple as just installing them because of where the drains, chutes, and other entry/disposal points are on the line. At some plants where you have floor penetrations for the waste chutes, etc., it is not just a simple matter of moving it because you’d need a contractor to come in and make the change.

Not to mention shield protect you from the person next to you, not the person across from you. With some of the processing being done a front shield does not work well either, sometimes you need more room to work than a shield allows.

[stevew]

FIL had to have an emergency pacemaker installed. Thank god they’re just sending him home instead of farming him out to a rehab center rn.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wait...they gave people that were IN THE HOSPITAL for COVID-19....a PLACEBO?!?!?

Remember that it is equally morally iffy to give it to people in the first place, especially in cases hospitalised but not/not yet in life threatening condidition that very likely would be just fine without the drug. Which you also need to do since you need to find not only if it helps but at what stage it helps most. And by design an antiviral drug needs to be administered early(ish), especially considering that many patients have their viral load go down after less than 1 week of symptoms.
Which is why the "what do you have to loose" rhetoric by Trump was so insane.

There is a reason why under normal circumstances these things take so much longer than they do right now. It is by nature extremely morally ambigous/challenging even when not played at the high stakes table like now ...

[whomario]

At the end of the day there won't be that one drug/treatment, this disease is way too varied for that. You have classic respiratory strains/pneumonia, but you also have damage to the heart, kidneys, blood vessels and blood clotting leading to strokes.

[NobodyHere]

....


Post moved to Trump thread

[whomario]

Meanwhile, he who casts the first stone etc ... (As far as doing Experiments on Viruses)

Gain-of-function research: Why labs should stop making viruses deadlier - Vox

as an aside : why do you need to put it as a percentage when talking about 17 agencies. So between 11.9 and 12.75 agencies believe it ?

Unless they do find a smoking gun, I'd lean towards believing the people that study this stuff.

EDIT:

The source said that the agencies have come down to two potential origins for the accident - animal-human transmission, or a mistake in the lab

Aren't those the only 2 conceivable options ?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by whomario

Meanwhile, he who casts the first stone etc ... (As far as doing Experiments on Viruses)

Gain-of-function research: Why labs should stop making viruses deadlier - Vox

as an aside : why do you need to put it as a percentage when talking about 17 agencies. So between 11.9 and 12.75 agencies believe it ?

Unless they do find a smoking gun, I'd lean towards believing the people that study this stuff.

EDIT:

Aren't those the only 2 conceivable options ?

You do have mutation of another strain of a coronavirus already in humans.

[Thomkal]

Fantasy Author Brandon Sanderson wanted to do something to help ease the boredom of those stuck at home during this pandemic. Took a while for his publishing company Tor to get it organized, but you can sign up for Tor's Ebook club and on Monday May 4th they will send you an e-book version of The Way of Kings, the first book in his Stormlight Archive. That should keep you busy for a while.

On May 4 We’re Offering a Free eBook of The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson | Tor.com

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Yes, of course, nothing to see here. If amidst a trial there seems to be clear evidence of the treatment being effective and important, it's at that point where an ethical matter arises. But not at the outset for a completely unknown treatment.

yeah I know that's how science works...but to really give it the ole sciencey try you have to give them nothing else either.

I don't think this is the time to be messing around.

[miked]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wait...they gave people that were IN THE HOSPITAL for COVID-19....a PLACEBO?!?!?

The good news is that if it is incredibly effective, they can halt the trial early and get approval.

[albionmoonlight]

Based on the anecdotes on social media of people treating this weekend as a "Corona is over; let's all go to parks and stores and breath on each other" party, I fear that the second wave will be coming.

This isn't a red/blue thing either. Apparently, it's everyone. It seems that human beings in 2020 can stand to be inconvenienced for about 200 hours or so before they decide it's not worth it.

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, the pictures of Piedmont Park in Atlanta was terrifying. No one wearing a mask, no social distancing. People really are acting like it's all over.


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