Big 10 Expansion Thread -Big Ten ready for a playoff .. finally?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

A&M has officially notified the Big 12 that they will be leaving the conference as soon as tomorrow. Now we wait to see what other dominoes do/don't fall......

Texas A&M Closer to Withdrawing From Big 12 - NYTimes.com

[digamma]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Just FWIW, anyone who thinks all of this college realignment talk is confusing ought to see what's going on with high school reclassification in Georgia.

I don't think I'll even try to explain the nearly year long clusterfuck that has turned into (and it still isn't completely settled even after two more votes today). It makes congressional redistricting look like Kindergarten work by comparison.

Is this the Super Classification idea from a few years back? Would love to read some if you have a link.

[cartman]

Word down here is that the NYT info was done as a "leak test". Specific info given to a single person to see if it made its way out.

[Toddzilla]

So now TAMU is reporting that they did NOT send a letter to the SEC informing them of their withdrawal.

Also, Dan Patrick - who *NEVER* engages in rumor mongering - says he's been told that VT will indeed be invited and accept an invitation to the SEC. My boys on the ground in Blacksburg confirm that's the hot new rumor in the athletic department hallways.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

So now TAMU is reporting that they did NOT send a letter to the SEC informing them of their withdrawal.

Also, Dan Patrick - who *NEVER* engages in rumor mongering - says he's been told that VT will indeed be invited and accept an invitation to the SEC. My boys on the ground in Blacksburg confirm that's the hot new rumor in the athletic department hallways.

I like that. Prefer FSU, but VT would be nice.

[wade moore]

VT seems like a great fit imo. SEC already has a fair following in Virginia, this would really stretch it.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

So now TAMU is reporting that they did NOT send a letter to the SEC informing them of their withdrawal.

I believe you meant they didn't send one to the Big 12. That's in the article I posted. I think we're splitting hairs here. The writer of the NY Times article has already said in a tweet that there was a phone call at 8:00 PM rather than a letter and that was the only reason for the correction. It's a non-denial denial for the most part.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by wade moore

VT seems like a great fit imo. SEC already has a fair following in Virginia, this would really stretch it.

Absolutely. Virgina could be called the heart of the south, and it is only fitting they have a team in the SEC. North Carolina would be another state that needs to be a part to fit in to a traditional foot-print.

[Ksyrup]

So if VT leaves, that means the 2012 Atlantic division winner is likely only going to have to face one of these to get a BCS berth: Duke, UVA, or GT?

I hope FSU stays in the ACC.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by digamma

Is this the Super Classification idea from a few years back? Would love to read some if you have a link.

Long story: Change from 5 classes to 6 was approved earlier this year, in a surprise move after the executive committee strongly rejected the 4/8 plan that came out of the reclassification committee. The vote was 26-24 to go to 6.

This weekend was supposed to hear a proposal to further sub-divide Class A into halves but that was tabled when Charlton County showed up with a promise from their school board attorney to file suit against the GHSA because the 6 class plan wasn't what the classification committee put forward. (Basically claiming that only a yes/no vote on that was possible under the by-laws but no alternate plans were allowed to be considered).

Executive committee rescinds the 6 class vote in order to allow further discussion before taking a revote, which leads Charlton to drop the lawsuit threat. Less than an hour later, the executive committee votes UNANIMOUSLY to approve the 6 class plan (with a minor tweak to the percentages for each classification).

But wait, there's more. Remember that bit about splitting A into two halves?
That's now going to be voted on at another meeting on 9/13. The proposal is where the confusion really kicks in. Once schools are assigned to Class A (based on enrollment in grades 9-11) they would then be re-divided but this time based on "service area population" instead of FTE. Not being called a private/public split, instead it's being cast as an urban/rural split ... except that virtually all schools who will be assigned to the "big" half despite having tiny enrollments are privates. Some of the larger public schools (Bowden & Bremen come to mind) could end up in the "small" half despite their size because their service area will be essentially defined as their city population rather than the entire county population like most Class A publics.

Want even more fun? There's still differing accounts of what number will be used to assign teams to Class A in the first place. Under the 6 class plan, it's seems to still be the percentage you'd be familiar with, the AJC estimates that it'll be about 22% (larger than the other classes because of the non-football members), which is roughly 98 schools. Not coincidentally perhaps, Wesleyan is the 99th smallest, i.e. projections have them being the smallest school in Class AA, with 322 students.

However, the terms of the ad-hoc committee proposal, according to the official agenda, call for A to be determined by a hard cap on FTE (unconfirmed that the number used over the weekend was 450 students). Estimates of the impending October FTE counts would put about 125 schools at 450 or less ... most notable name that would suddenly find themselves dropped back to class A is probably Lovett, with Wesleyan firmly back in Class A if the cut-off is that high, along with Bremen & Bowdon who may find themselves kissed by this (remember Tom Murphy's threats years back when he tried so hard to ensure his daughter-in-law could get her Bremen debate team to the state tournament?) edit to add For the uninitiated, it's Wesleyan's recent dominance of Class A in multiple sports that has caused such intensity in the latest battle. With logic that you'll find only from a sub-committee, their proposal would put Wesleyan right back into Class A, which so many people wanted them out of in the first place. Brilliant, ain't it?

So, if this mess passes then 6 classes effectively become 7, except that the last two are actually half-classes, containing somewhere between 48 and 62 teams each, of which 25 don't even field a football team. If you're keeping score at home, that means that as many as 32 of (less than) 48 teams make the playoffs ... unless of course there's also a previously undisclosed post-season change hidden in this somewhere, specifically one that would advance only two teams from each sub-class to their respective playoffs. edit to add See, 2 from 2 sub-classes instead of 4 from one class would keep the number of playoff gates that the GHSA draws revenue from the same as they expected.

And did I mention that the Macon Telegraph is reporting that there will be at least three different splits of Class A? One for football, one for basketball, and one for other sports? Never mind that in soccer & volleyball Class A is combined with AA just to have enough teams to have a state tournament.

Here's a link to the latest fairly straightforward version, but it really doesn't do justice to the clusterfuck this has become.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And to think, I managed to cover that without even mentioning what a sandy vagina whiny bitch senile p.o.s. cunt Larry Campbell has become in the past couple of years.

[digamma]

Wow. Really interesting, but almost sorry I asked. Thanks for putting together the summary.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So if VT leaves, that means the 2012 Atlantic division winner is likely only going to have to face one of these to get a BCS berth: Duke, UVA, or GT?

I hope FSU stays in the ACC.

How'd that work out for you in 2008 and 2009? Oh right, you trust in Jimbo now.

[Ksyrup]

Wow, awfully defensive are we? I didn't even mean that as a shot at GT. GT is what it is - I don't really know much about the team, other than the QB is gone, right? If you think it's a slap in the face that I'd rather face GT than VT or UNC/Miami at full strength, then, um, OK?

But yeah, FSU's football program is in a different universe compared to the way Bobby let it rot. You'd have to be blind not to see that. If we gave the kind of performance against GT in 2012 that we gave in those years, I'd be sorely diappointed, not resigned to accepting a likely loss as I was back then.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Wow, awfully defensive are we? I didn't even mean that as a shot at GT. GT is what it is - I don't really know much about the team, other than the QB is gone, right? If you think it's a slap in the face that I'd rather face GT than VT or UNC/Miami at full strength, then, um, OK?

But yeah, FSU's football program is in a different universe compared to the way Bobby let it rot. You'd have to be blind not to see that. If we gave the kind of performance against GT in 2012 that we gave in those years, I'd be sorely diappointed, not resigned to accepting a likely loss as I was back then.

It was just a light barb back. Not defensive--more offensive really.

I'm not sure I buy the whole different universe thing yet. FSU still went 10-4 last year, not entirely different from 2008 (9-4) though you got blown out then by a national champion contender in Florida versus a pseudo national champion contender in Oklahoma this past season.

So while your expectations are certainly in a different universe, you've still got a lot to prove on the field. Maybe you will. (And I will say that in the prediction game I have with several of my friends, I've actually picked FSU to beat OU this season.)

[Ksyrup]

The one thing I don't like is being ranked so high this year. It really could come back to bite us big time. Everyone's still on the "overrated" thing from the past decade (with good reason, but it's the media that was slow to react to the decline), that if we come out and go 9-4 again, then it's back to the "same ol' FSU underachiever" tag.

It's not just the recruiting that's made a difference, though, Jimbo really brought the program into the 21st century. Until he took over, they didn't even have nutritionists and some of the other things the top programs implemented years ago. When you look at how far behind we had fallen under Bobby, it was really bad. Much worse than the W/L records suggest. But it feels like we're back on equal footing as far as the underlying foundation of the program - now we just need to take the next step (or 2) on the field. I'm just not convinced this is the year.

[Young Drachma]

College Football: Texas A&M's Addition To SEC Wouldn't Mean Much To TV Contracts - CNBC

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

College Football: Texas A&M's Addition To SEC Wouldn't Mean Much To TV Contracts - CNBC

Sorry but ... well duh.

The notion that 95% (or more) of teams would make a major difference in a major conference's national audience has been laughable to me from the start.

[I. J. Reilly]

For some reason I was thinking that any change in conference composition would void the existing deal. So it wasn’t so much that aTm would add value, but that they would allow the SEC to renegotiate after the Pac-12 set such a high bar. If that’s not the case then I don’t really see why the SEC is pushing for this.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

For some reason I was thinking that any change in conference composition would void the existing deal. So it wasn’t so much that aTm would add value, but that they would allow the SEC to renegotiate after the Pac-12 set such a high bar. If that’s not the case then I don’t really see why the SEC is pushing for this.

This

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

For some reason I was thinking that any change in conference composition would void the existing deal. So it wasn’t so much that aTm would add value, but that they would allow the SEC to renegotiate after the Pac-12 set such a high bar. If that’s not the case then I don’t really see why the SEC is pushing for this.

What the article seems to suggest is that there's a potential to void the contract but only if the change in composition is substantial. The question being raised here is the one that's always been in my mind, whether A&M + any mentioned one other would qualify as substantial under the terms of the contract.

If the networks did a reasonably good job in the language, I doubt this does much to change the terms. Where the article goes that I hadn't thought about much is whether any increase would be enough to cover the additional payout. For the SEC to take this stupid step & then lose money would be quite comical to me.

[bronconick]

If the SEC takes North Carolina, the remaining ACC teams will require Swofford to go with them.

[terpkristin]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So if VT leaves, that means the 2012 Atlantic division winner is likely only going to have to face one of these to get a BCS berth: Duke, UVA, or GT?

I hope FSU stays in the ACC.

I would love nothing more than for VaTech to get out of the ACC. It would make work a lot easier. A good number of the people I work with went there and are absolutely unbearable come sports season, especially if playing Maryland. They act as if THEY had anything to do with a win or a loss.

/tk

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by terpkristin

I would love nothing more than for VaTech to get out of the ACC. It would make work a lot easier. A good number of the people I work with went there and are absolutely unbearable come sports season, especially if playing Maryland. They act as if THEY had anything to do with a win or a loss.

/tk

VT being in the SEC won't make them any more unbearable...they'll just thump thier chest while talking to you.

[Solecismic]

This still seems odd to me. If you're running a university, you move to new conference if the additional money and prestige adds up to more than the value of your past history with the conference.

This makes sense for Texas A&M. Hopefully it's more than the temper tantrum over the Longhorn Network.

I see the Longhorn Network as a really dumb move on ESPN's part. I have the Big Ten Network as part of my basic cable package. I like it because it runs Big Ten football and basketball games. The Longhorn Network doesn't seem to have the ability to televise Longhorn football. I question its ability to generate enough revenue to make people happy. Especially now that it won't televise high school games.

If you're running a conference that wants to expand, expansion only makes sense if the new addition brings in an amount of money exceeding the average amount of each of your existing members.

This will decrease the larger your conference becomes. Getting to 14 actually decreases your value in some of your existing regions because you no longer host certain rivals every year which may have a following elsewhere. That becomes more of a factor in the elite conferences.

That said, I think Texas A&M is big enough to interest the SEC. But not by much, and at a cost of tradition. It also devalues a divisional championship. If you're at 16 schools, you're really talking about a full-on split into two conferences.

It looks like the SEC is willing to try 14. I don't think the others will follow quickly. Two questions will need to be answered, assuming the SEC takes Texas A&M and Virginia Tech.

1. Assuming the ACC replaces the Hokies from the Big East (and why wouldn't they?), at what point does the Big East lose its footing in major college football? It's still a 'tweener conference between major and mid-major. It got a boost from BYU and Utah leaving the Mountain West, which is what eliminated the Mountain West campaign to join the BCS, and allowed the Big East to take TCU. With both the ACC and the SEC moving northward, more and more potential recruits will follow those conferences, and the quality of the Big East teams will decline.

2. It's still all about Texas. The next round starts if and when Texas wags the dog.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

This still seems odd to me. If you're running a university, you move to new conference if the additional money and prestige adds up to more than the value of your past history with the conference.

This makes sense for Texas A&M. Hopefully it's more than the temper tantrum over the Longhorn Network.

I see the Longhorn Network as a really dumb move on ESPN's part. I have the Big Ten Network as part of my basic cable package. I like it because it runs Big Ten football and basketball games. The Longhorn Network doesn't seem to have the ability to televise Longhorn football. I question its ability to generate enough revenue to make people happy. Especially now that it won't televise high school games.

If you're running a conference that wants to expand, expansion only makes sense if the new addition brings in an amount of money exceeding the average amount of each of your existing members.

This will decrease the larger your conference becomes. Getting to 14 actually decreases your value in some of your existing regions because you no longer host certain rivals every year which may have a following elsewhere. That becomes more of a factor in the elite conferences.

That said, I think Texas A&M is big enough to interest the SEC. But not by much, and at a cost of tradition. It also devalues a divisional championship. If you're at 16 schools, you're really talking about a full-on split into two conferences.

It looks like the SEC is willing to try 14. I don't think the others will follow quickly. Two questions will need to be answered, assuming the SEC takes Texas A&M and Virginia Tech.

1. Assuming the ACC replaces the Hokies from the Big East (and why wouldn't they?), at what point does the Big East lose its footing in major college football? It's still a 'tweener conference between major and mid-major. It got a boost from BYU and Utah leaving the Mountain West, which is what eliminated the Mountain West campaign to join the BCS, and allowed the Big East to take TCU. With both the ACC and the SEC moving northward, more and more potential recruits will follow those conferences, and the quality of the Big East teams will decline.

2. It's still all about Texas. The next round starts if and when Texas wags the dog.

I'm looking forward to the new financial model in TCY2 that models this exact scenario.



I agree that the Big East is at a crossroads right now. They're not going to be able to remain a hybrid conference forever. Interested to see which way they go as this all plays out.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

dola

More talk of strained OU/UT relationship. Really good point in article regarding lack of clear BCS replacement options to bring B12 conference back together.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextr...1_Whatif864434

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by terpkristin

I would love nothing more than for VaTech to get out of the ACC. It would make work a lot easier. A good number of the people I work with went there and are absolutely unbearable come sports season, especially if playing Maryland. They act as if THEY had anything to do with a win or a loss.

/tk

So what you are saying is they would fit perfectly in the SEC?

[Toddzilla]

The Big East Football Conference is not long for this world.

Even more so than the ACC, it's a basketball conference first and foremost. Given that they have member schools that don't even field a football team at any level, it just makes sense to let it disappear.

Heck, maybe they can make a few bucks in exit fees when all the football schools leave.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by terpkristin

I would love nothing more than for VaTech to get out of the ACC. It would make work a lot easier. A good number of the people I work with went there and are absolutely unbearable come sports season, especially if playing Maryland. They act as if THEY had anything to do with a win or a loss.

/tk

MUAHAHAHAHAHA

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

The Big East Football Conference is not long for this world.

Even more so than the ACC, it's a basketball conference first and foremost. Given that they have member schools that don't even field a football team at any level, it just makes sense to let it disappear.

Heck, maybe they can make a few bucks in exit fees when all the football schools leave.

Even though, I agree with most of your post, there are probably a lot more scenarios that see the Big East surviving than disappearing.

I think the Big East hybrid ceases to exist only if/when conferences move to 16. Right now, the Big Ten seems happy at 12 and the ACC seems locked in to its new contract (in such a way that they really cannot afford to go beyond 12).

If the SEC goes to 16 and takes more than one of VPI/Clemson/Florida State, I'm not sure that the ACC is in much of a position to poach from the Big East. I don't think any Big East schools would entertain the Big 12 right now, either (unless/until the move to 16 happens and they have to merge).

I think the key to watch will be how the Big East's TV contract negotiations go after next season. They are they last remaining BCS conference up for negotiations and they reportedly turned down ESPN's offer to tear up the final 2-years of their current deal with an offer that would have given them a comprable per team dollars to the ACC's deal. The Pac 12's deal blew everything out of the water, so the BE brass decided to play out their contract and try free agency.

With NBC/Comcast's pre-existing relationship with Notre Dame, there are some who think that those two parties have already floated numbers and that they will try to outbid ESPN. If that happens, ESPN may nudge the ACC to try to finish off the Big East by moving to 16 and grabbing the Big East's most valuable properties AND allow the ACC to renegotiate early just to keep the competition from getting off the ground.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Interesting comments from Bob Stoops. While remaining PC in his comments, it's pretty clear he's not happy with the direction of the conference.......

http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextr...1_NORMAN365879

[Ksyrup]

schadjoe Joe Schad
Texas A&M formally announces it is applying to another conference (Yes, the SEC)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Official notice on website......

News Release: Texas A&M to Seek New Conference Affiliation - Texas A&M University - College Station, TX

[Ksyrup]

So basically what it boils down to is this (in my thinking):

1. TAMU joins SEC, SEC seeks one team from Big East or ACC. That sets off domino effect on east coast for repositioning of ACC/Big East depending on which conference loses a team to the SEC. One would likely raid the other to replace the 12th team, or perhaps go for the kill and take 3-4 to strengthen conference.

2. TAMU joins SEC, SEC takes another team from Big 12 (say, Missouri). That sets off domino effect on west coast for Pac-12 to step in and grab UT/OU and a couple other Big 12 remnants. Hard to see the Big 12 surviving if 2 leave, but I guess UT/OU will determine that. May bring BYU/Boise State/TCU in mix to save Big 12, despite moves they've made in the past year?

3. TAMU joins SEC, SEC decides to act now and grab 3 other teams to go to 16. That sets off WWIII among all conferences trying to reposition, probably spells the end for either ACC or Big East as we know them, and probably drags Big 10 and ND into the picture as well.

[Ksyrup]

The scenario I see causing the least amount of movement/damage is SEC taking TAMU and VT, ACC grabs Louisville or WVU, and Big East accelerates Villanova timetable to move up to I-A. At least in the short-term.

[MrBug708]

Texas is trying to get Arkansas to switch to the Big-12 and will also try to get BYU to the Big-12

[cuervo72]

Big East/ACC either need to merge or form some sort of alliance. Swap a couple teams in the process, maybe USF and Louisville to the ACC and BC back to the Big East.

edit: yeah yeah, no way the two would give up a BCS slot.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So basically what it boils down to is this (in my thinking): ...

I'm hoping for
4. Enough members of the SEC realize that adding A&M does nothing to make the conference stronger & declines the application. Hilarity ensues when ...

5. Fed up, the B12/10/9 finalized a deal with a replacement & kicks A&M to the curb.

(while 5 is highly unlikely, it'd still be funny to watch)

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Big East/ACC either need to merge or form some sort of alliance.

I have for sometime thought in the end there would be four mega conferences based upon each of the regions. Big East, Big South, Big Midwest, and Big West. Not that all of them would take those names mind you.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Texas is trying to get Arkansas to switch to the Big-12 and will also try to get BYU to the Big-12

will. not. happen.

[Ksyrup]

Well, that would be funny, but I have to assume that TAMU wouldn't be doing this if it didn't have assurances it was in the SEC.

Would be funny to watch that process unfold, though.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by MJ4H

will. not. happen.

No doubt

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Matthean

I have for sometime thought in the end there would be four mega conferences based upon each of the regions. Big East, Big South, Big Midwest, and Big West. Not that all of them would take those names mind you.

I think a lot of folks have.

I don't know if twenty teams would be untenable or not (probably), but an alignment like this might be interesting:

ACC Division	Big East Division
Clemson	West Virginia
Florida State	Pittsburgh
North Carolina State	Rutgers
Wake Forest	Louisville
Duke	Syracuse
Georgia Tech	Connecticut
Miami	Cincinnati
North Carolina	TCU
Virginia	Boston College
South Florida	Maryland

This is assuming VT is bye-bye. And it takes some liberties with moving Maryland and BC east, USF south. TCU is still out of place I suppose.

Maybe even break it down into 4x5 divisions (with an eye on 24?? ). Keep basketball operations basically separate, just operate like this for football.

Yeah, ok so this would probably never happen. But as it seems now, they might be set to try to eat each other. And speculation (which has largely been the only thing in this thread) is fun.

[Ksyrup]

The Big 12 is going to have an awfully hard time getting anyone to commit to them, given the instability in the conference. They're kinda like the Mets - a lot of negative momentum, with no one really wanting to be a part of it unless there's just no other option to get paid. And with Jose Reyes/UT able to move on at any point and put a fork in it, why take the chance?

[Toddzilla]

Exactly. Who in their right mind want's to commit to a Big12 with Oklahoma (and by proxy OSU) ready to bolt at a moments notice?

I think Texas actually would just as well go independent in football so they can call their own shots - not that they're not doing that now basically anyway.

Then you'd think the rest of the Big12 could salvage a decent conference with the teams in that region that have been basically avoiding it because of Texas (i.e. TCU).

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

New post from the TT poster on Tigerboard. Says Mizzou will notify early next week and deal should be done by end of next week. Also seeing more buzz that OU/OSU are just about ready to hit the eject button and will do so if Mizzou jumps.

Mondo (TX state rep) expects Missouri to notify B12 by Tuesday that it is exploring membership options with other conferences(SEC). Followed quickly by the notification that they are leaving the conference and then within 24 hours, the application and subsequent acceptance to the SEC.

The B12 is simply too unstable to risk the University's future on.

The delay of aTm in getting this done, due strictly to legal issues, (never was the move in doubt otherwise), has allowed other schools to gain at least some influence in the SEC processes.

Mondo says however, Missouri is number 14 unless OU panics, but it is definitely Missouri's choice as to what they do at this point.

[Toddzilla]

Where do the OK teams go? East or West?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

I think Texas actually would just as well go independent in football so they can call their own shots - not that they're not doing that now basically anyway.

This is the crazy part of all of this. Everything I've seen both from private and public sources that have come out is that Texas doesn't want to be independent. They want to be in a conference that allows them to do what they want in regards to the network. The problem is that they've been involved in the breakup of two conferences in the last 15 or so years. None of the bigger schools want to gamble with that kind of record. Texas isn't going to change suddenly.

[cartman]

I love people quoting that the league is 'too unstable'. The league just got a massive TV contract last season. If that isn't a prime indicator of stability, I don't know what is. It is like someone rocking a boat, and then complaining about rough seas and seasickness. And if someone tells them to stop rocking the boat, they reply "stop telling me what to do".