Who will (not should) be the Republican presidential nominee in 2008?

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

The upright nations of the world need to act as the world's police. Just because we are quite often standing alone in that role doesn't mean that we are in the wrong, it just means that we are poor at diplomacy.

Sure, but it can also mean that we're wrong.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Sure, but it can also mean that we're wrong.

"Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun. "

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

"Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun. "

"Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition."

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

"Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition."

"I'm not dead!" - Mike Huckabee

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

WA looks really strange right now. At 87% of the vote counted McCain was leading by 1.8%. At that point the party stopped releasing totals and declared McCain the victor. There has been no word on when the remaining 13% of the vote will be tallied. Huckabee isn't conceding yet, saying their were, "weird things going on".

Yep. Huckabee is officially protesting the vote and I don't blame him. McCain was only leading by 242 votes with 1,500 uncounted. To stop at 87% is just ridiculous. Huckabee says they're exploring legal options. But Huckabee probably gets swept tomorrow unless he pulls off the upset in Virginia which is winner take all. McCain would gain another 100 or so delegates with a sweep and then we'll see if Huckabee drops out. I'm guessing he wants a VP spot, but I doubt he gets it.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Yep. Huckabee is officially protesting the vote and I don't blame him.

He has a good point.

[Young Drachma]

Watching McCain's speech tonight went at Obama. And he's beating the drum in a way that's going to get him trounced. The war mongering is not going to stop and people are going to get tired of him. He's Bob Dole 2.0.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/..._takes_po.html

But that said, the Dems are vulnerable and have clear differences between them and the GOP that could tip the scales, but I think it'll take McCain's VP nominee to energize his candidacy in a way that he's simply not going to be able to do. In this American Idol driven world, it's not gonna be enough to delineate the substantive policy differences between two candidacies.

Probably sucks, but..it's where we are. Gotta have more than that. So it's gonna take a scandal or some sort of significant thing to tip the scales.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Watching McCain's speech tonight went at Obama. And he's beating the drum in a way that's going to get him trounced.

The modern electoral college landscape is actually very favorable for McCain, and there's just no way that any republican candidate is going to get "trounced" in a general election. If Obama ends up as his opponent, the republican party will point out that even though he is an uplifting, motivational speaker, on the issues Obama is the most liberal candidate to get the Democratic nomination since George McGovern in 1972.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The modern electoral college landscape is actually very favorable for McCain, and there's just no way that any republican candidate is going to get "trounced" in a general election. If Obama ends up as his opponent, the republican party will point out that even though he is an uplifting, motivational speaker, on the issues Obama is the most liberal candidate to get the Democratic nomination since George McGovern in 1972.

Trounced was a bit strong. But I just meant he needed to soften his rhetoric once he gets to the general public. Tonight's speech was obviously targeted at the base of the GOP where he's having problems.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

If Obama ends up as his opponent, the republican party will point out that even though he is an uplifting, motivational speaker, he is still not white and has a name like a terrorist.

Fixed.

It's only a joke, laugh please.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Fixed.

It's only a joke, laugh please.

It might be a joke, but it will undoubtedly happen in more than a few PAC ads or if not, surely some viral ads that get thrown around the internets.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

It might be a joke, but it will undoubtedly happen in more than a few PAC ads or if not, surely some viral ads that get thrown around the internets.

True. I just felt the need to add a disclaimer because I didn't want someone getting sensative and lashing out towards me.

[path12]

I think it's interesting to try and run against hope. Not sure how that's gonna fly in the long run.

[Toddzilla]

How in the world do you run on a platform of "the will of the people" (which McCain must have said 10 times last night) yet still want to prolong the war?

[Toddzilla]

Financially speaking (borrowing a theme from the other thread), Giuliani's campaign was the worst presidential campaign in American history:

The failed campaign of Rudolph W. Giuliani can claim one distinction: the worst bang for the buck of any delegate winner in presidential politics history.

The former New York mayor, who dropped his Republican bid for the presidency this week, disclosed Thursday in a filing with the Federal Election Commission that he raised $58.5 million and spent $48.8 million in 2007.

With his donors’ money, Giuliani captured a single national delegate, in Nevada. At that rate, it would have taken close to $60 billion in spending to capture the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination.

and

Now let’s summarize:
* Rudy won exactly one delegate (in Nevada).
* Rudy’s average share of the vote in the seven states he competed in was 5.14 percent.
* Rudy won a total of 342,357 votes, roughly the population of Arlington, Texas. If Florida is excluded, just for fun, that number falls to 60,602–and that six-state total is about equal to the number of students who attend Arizona State University.

Rudy spent $142.83 for every vote he received. And again, that is based on campaign spending only through December 31. The real number will go higher when 2008 spending figures are released.

All of this puts Rudy in a league with Phil Gramm and John Connally, two past lavishly financed GOP presidential flameouts (in 1996 and 1980, respectively). But Rudy’s crash was even more stunning. Gramm and Connally were both deemed to be serious contenders, but neither was ever anointed the decisive frontrunner like Rudy.

[Swaggs]

The PAC ads could be particularly disgusting this year.

I'm guessing Obama will get attacked for his name and race and McCain will probably get the same war hero treatment that John Kerry got, with some Manchurian Candidate elements thrown in.

[Barkeep49]

Swaggs: I think you're wrong about what McCain will get. I think McCain will be labeled as an unhinged war monger, rather than a fake hero.

Also I find it amazing that not only did Guilliani win so few delegates but according to an article I read, his Campaign Treasurer is estimating that his creditors are only going to get 10% of what they're owed.

I think the Republicans are in much better shape now than they were before the voting started. They have their candidate, and he's one that will likely appeal to the broadest amount of people, while the Democrats don't. Huckabee is little more than a gnat for McCain and at some point somewhat soon McCain will get the 50% of delegates that he needs, while the Democrats are still duking it out.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The PAC ads could be particularly disgusting this year.

I'm guessing Obama will get attacked for his name and race and McCain will probably get the same war hero treatment that John Kerry got, with some Manchurian Candidate elements thrown in.

His name, his race and as a far-left liberal who is inexperienced and can't pay for all of his dreaming. Maybe for his lack of a Senate record.

The wildcard in all of this, is if he can keep the flaky youth of America engaged throughout this whole thing, then he'll have a trump card. But that's one big "if".

His ground game is stellar and clearly his work as a community organizer is showing off here just in his ability to organize a top-to-bottom organization like the one he's created in such a short period of time.

If the juxtaposition is hope v. fear, then the GOP is doomed and that's my point of McCain having to gradually soften his rhetoric when he gets to the general public. Because any of the posturing he did for the hard right last night might be cute to them and all, but...it's not gonna play in Peoria.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

If the juxtaposition is hope v. fear, then the GOP is doomed and that's my point of McCain having to gradually soften his rhetoric when he gets to the general public. Because any of the posturing he did for the hard right last night might be cute to them and all, but...it's not gonna play in Peoria.

You hit the nail on the head here. Every candidate that has run based upon hope has won. Look at FDR, look at Kennedy, look at Reagan. They all won based upon their message of hope and faith in America. Obama is tapping into that, I don't feel he is as effective in doing so as any of the previously named statesmen, but he has done it far better than anyone since Reagan.

[JPhillips]

Warhammer: I'd phrase that a little differently. It's about likability. Nobody likes the pessimist who tells it "straight". The optimist with a message of hope is the person we like and the undecided voters who throw the election one way or the other generally vote on likability as opposed to policy.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

If the juxtaposition is hope v. fear, then the GOP is doomed and that's my point of McCain having to gradually soften his rhetoric when he gets to the general public. Because any of the posturing he did for the hard right last night might be cute to them and all, but...it's not gonna play in Peoria.

No We Can't!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think the Republicans are in much better shape now than they were before the voting started. They have their candidate, and he's one that will likely appeal to the broadest amount of people, while the Democrats don't. Huckabee is little more than a gnat for McCain and at some point somewhat soon McCain will get the 50% of delegates that he needs, while the Democrats are still duking it out.

Agreed, this race has shaped up exactly the right way for the GOP, and exactly the wrong way for the Dems.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Agreed, this race has shaped up exactly the right way for the GOP, and exactly the wrong way for the Dems.

+1

I don't think they could have scripted it better. The only that will save the Dems and get ready for general (which typically starts about now) is for one to drop out after March 4. McCain will alreay have a head start on general and he can solidify the moderates and independents while working on the Southern/Midwestern religous base. He has already got the conservative military base and will get the fiscal conservative base as soon as they put up the numbers/issues.

[st.cronin]

I think even if one of Hillary/Obama drops out, they'll have an uphill fight. The best candidate the Dems had never got in the race (Gore), and the best one in the race never got going (Edwards).

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

You hit the nail on the head here. Every candidate that has run based upon hope has won. Look at FDR, look at Kennedy, look at Reagan. They all won based upon their message of hope and faith in America. Obama is tapping into that, I don't feel he is as effective in doing so as any of the previously named statesmen, but he has done it far better than anyone since Reagan.

Yeah, he's too much on platitudes and not effective enough to give us an understanding of what his future of America looks like. He talks too much about remaking Washington, instead of focusing on America.

He's creating a movement to march down to D.C. and 'take back' their government, when they ought to be focused on taking back some of that power and putting it back into their hands or at least, closer than some far off place that has no idea who they are or what they do. These folks are gonna be pissed when they find out that one man and his internet army of facebookers isn't gonna be enough to influence much of anything if people don't sign on to the game.

And I cringe every time one of them is on television saying "he just inspires me" or something.

[Bubba Wheels]

Most damaging thing I've seen on Obama is him standing on a stage somewheres with both hands clasped cradle-like under his belt, arms hanging straight down. Hillary and Richardson along side of him, hands over hearts, as the pledge to the flag is said. If and when he wins the nomination, expect to see this picture alot.

[Buccaneer]

He inspires them to expect more out of Washington DC and the federal govt? I think one would have to look at the messages of JFK and Reagan in relation to the federal govt.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

Most damaging thing I've seen on Obama is him standing on a stage somewheres with both hands clasped cradle-like under his belt, arms hanging straight down. Hillary and Richardson along side of him, hands over hearts, as the pledge to the flag is said. If and when he wins the nomination, expect to see this picture alot.

Boy, I love email forwards. They are awesome.

Debunked already

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Boy, I love email forwards. They are awesome.

Debunked already

Well, ok, if it really makes that much of a difference to those viewing the picture (and one is worth a thousand words, right?). If nothing else, would seem to show somewhat poor judgement considering the office the guy is running for.

[JPhillips]

I saw a picture of Obama sodomizing Margaret Thatcher. I expect to see that picture a lot. Even if it's fake, given the office he's running for a picture is worth a thousand words.

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I saw a picture of Obama sodomizing Margaret Thatcher. I expect to see that picture a lot. Even if it's fake, given the office he's running for a picture is worth a thousand words.

What? There was nothing phoney about the picture itself, article just says it was taken during National Anthem and not Pledge of Allegiance. You saying the picture itself is photoshopped?

[JPhillips]

No, just that the picture you cited has no validity. Obama was actually doing the right thing, but somehow he should have used better judgement?

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No, just that the picture you cited has no validity. Obama was actually doing the right thing, but somehow he should have used better judgement?

Yes, he allowed the other two with hands over hearts to make him look like a chump.

[ISiddiqui]

I... can't believe I'm saying this, but Bubba has a point. From the people who bought all the "swiftboating" crap, you don't think they are going to look at that and run with it?

[JPhillips]

Of course they'll run with it, but tha doesn't make it any less bullshit. The way to win isn't to fearfully fret about anything the opposition can possibly use against you. Weakness doesn't sell well to the American electorate. Do what you think is right, don't apologize for things you didn't do, and move on.

The fact that Bubba thinks this picture is a big deal is IMO just proof of how little Obama should care. The people that will think this is a big deal wouldn't ever vote for Obama anyway.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Agreed, this race has shaped up exactly the right way for the GOP, and exactly the wrong way for the Dems.

Right.

There's nothing worse than having every news cycle talk about your two candidates and virtually ignoring the other party. And it sure is awesome when people within your own party are going on news programs telling people they'd rather wait until 2012 than vote in their own candidate.

I don't see how the GOP is not having random parties in the streets about how the election is going so far.

[mattlanta]

McCain will win. For the record, Ron Paul should.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Libid21

McCain will win. For the record, Ron Paul should.

if Ron Paul "should" have one than he would've won.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

Most damaging thing I've seen on Obama is him standing on a stage somewheres with both hands clasped cradle-like under his belt, arms hanging straight down. Hillary and Richardson along side of him, hands over hearts, as the pledge to the flag is said. If and when he wins the nomination, expect to see this picture alot.

He also is a Muslim. He even attended an Islamic fundamentalist madrassa. Al Qaeda has resorted to getting us from within and the American electorate is taking it hook, line and sinker!

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Libid21

McCain will win.

McCain doesn't stand a chance against this in a substantive debate on the issues.

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by lungs

He also is a Muslim. He even attended an Islamic fundamentalist madrassa. Al Qaeda has resorted to getting us from within and the American electorate is taking it hook, line and sinker!

United Church of Christ, I believe. Maybe that's Muslim in your neck-of-the-world. And if so, to cop a well-worn phrase, pix, plz, thx!

[miked]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

What? There was nothing phoney about the picture itself, article just says it was taken during National Anthem and not Pledge of Allegiance. You saying the picture itself is photoshopped?

OMG, he's gonna be the worst president cuz he didn't put hiz handz on his hart once and sumbody took a pikture. I hear George Bush drank and drived and even may have snorted cokain once or twice. I'll bet he wont be a good prezident either.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I saw a picture of Obama sodomizing Margaret Thatcher.

Maggie didn’t earn her nickname “The Iron Lady” for nothing. She took it like a champ.

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by miked

OMG, he's gonna be the worst president cuz he didn't put hiz handz on his hart once and sumbody took a pikture. I hear George Bush drank and drived and even may have snorted cokain once or twice. I'll bet he wont be a good prezident either.

did i say that? just talking about the pic getting used. buy a clue.

[Toddzilla]

Think this will help or hurt McCain?

Senate Passes Interrogation Ban

The Senate voted 51 to 45 on Wednesday afternoon to ban waterboarding and other harsh interrogation methods used by the Central Intelligence Agency against high-level terrorism suspects.
...
Mr. McCain, a former prisoner of war, has consistently voiced opposition to waterboarding and other methods that critics say is a form torture. But the Republicans, confident of a White House veto, did not mount the challenge. Mr. McCain voted “no” on Wednesday afternoon.

So McCain, presumably against waterboarding in specific and torture in general, votes *against* banning waterboarding and torture. If it was a simple procedural matter, why not vote for the bill? You can't have it both ways.

[Jas_lov]

Governor Mitt Romney will endorse Senator John McCain for President of the United States says CNN.

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Governor Mitt Romney will endorse Senator John McCain for President of the United States says CNN.

So, once again Romney changes his position to advance his political career.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

So, once again Romney changes his position to advance his political career.

Not exactly the most shocking development ever though.

Right now I'd say the word "mormon" has one "m" too many in describing Twit.

[Bubba Wheels]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Not exactly the most shocking development ever though.

Right now I'd say the word "mormon" has one "m" too many in describing Twit.

You would think he would have at least let the dust settle before dropping all pretense of principle and appearing so eager.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

You would think he would have at least let the dust settle before dropping all pretense of principle and appearing so eager.

In all seriousness, why wait? It's a lot like a plea bargain on Law & Order, only one person is going to get the "good deal", he didn't have the nerve to play chicken with Huckabee any longer and although I didn't get the feeling Huck was planning to surrender in order to get the VP slot apparently Romney wasn't so sure about that.