2024 NFL Season Thread

[albionmoonlight]

It's the Jets. Rodgers merely being bad after his injury would not be nearly enough dramatic WTF pain for those poor fans.

I think that instead, he'll start playing like an MVP and the Jets will be in contention for the #1 seed, and then he'll suddenly retire from football in protest of, like, RFK not getting enough votes so Rodgers does not believe in America anymore or some shit like that.

That would be Jetsy!

[flere-imsaho]

There's no way this ends well for Jets fans:

Trump wins: RFK convinces DJT to nominate Rodgers for Secretary of the interior and so he retires from football in early January to go through the nomination hearings.

Harris wins: On 20 January, Rodgers leaves for a month-long mental health retreat in a cave in Borneo to "cleanse his aura".

[Ksyrup]

I believe Malik Willis has already gained more yards against the Titans than he did in his entire Titans career.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like the Vikings and Darnold are for real.

Also, while I'm not at all a fan of how the NBA manufactures chaos at the end of games with the TO and advance the ball to half court nonsense, I feel like the NFL has gone too far the other way by making comebacks almost impossible with the new kickoff rules and even more neutered onsides kick rules. I don't think anyone has tried an onsides kick despite a couple of teams being in a situation in which you almost certainly would have done so in previous years. I don't think I like that.

[dubb93]

I really don’t know why I still play fantasy football. I have Tua, McCaffrey, Puka, and Evan Engram in a 12 team big money league if you want to know how my season is going.

[Solecismic]

It's interesting to see three QBs in new situations this season, Darnold, Fields and Willis, all in action in the early games and all putting together solid winning performances. All three are games that they probably wouldn't have won for their original teams.

Fields in particular, as that game was on here and he wasn't a running threat. He was throwing quite accurately, though I'd hesitate to say he's completely turned the corner on decision-making. Just that his motion looks very clean now.

Given that quarterback play drives football and being able to make decisions quickly is as important as being able to make throws, I'm wondering how to process this. All three are guys I had pretty much written off as backups... if that.

As far as how that translates to the engine, what I did with 9 when I rewrote it was I tried to assess contribution based on the percentage of salary cap going to established starters at each position. I figured the guys who do roster for a living have much more information about this than I could ever process. For example, last year, the cap, minus dead money, was about $210 million. A reasonable starting quarterback averaged about $30 million (figuring in the young ones on rookie contracts) and you're spending about $90-$100 million on offensive starters. Give part of your offensive line and your running back to the running game, take a shade off of quarterback for that, since it's part of that, varying by team. Rushing offense is about a third of your offense. So it's reasonable to say that maybe 40-45% of your passing game is the quarterback.

But... that does not factor in coaching. And how do you do that? Let's say Tomlin is the reason Fields is looking like a new man this year. How do turn that into a simulation without it seeming absurdly random and not fun at all? Because if that's the case, it would be an entirely different game to get a coach like Tomlin on your team - or realize that Fields is a quarterback who needs a coach like Tomlin to reach his potential. If you go too far, FOF starts to resemble one of those old-time war games with thousands of little squares of cardboard and charts.

Reality is difficult. Thousands of decisions to make when deciding what should be in a sim and what should not.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Looks like the Vikings and Darnold are for real.

I'm so happy to see Darnold to have success, even though I'm not confident he can keep it up like this I think he can get them to the playoffs.

He was one of the most fun QB's I've ever watched in college. He might be my favorite still. He was Caleb Williams for SC except he developed under Clay Helton not Lincoln Riley. He committed when Max Browne was the #1 recruit in the country and they tried to convert him to LB before his freshman season. He then took the job over and put in some of the most absurd put the team on his back performances you've ever seen, culminating in I think my favorite game ever in the Rose Bowl vs Penn State. He single handedly is the reason Clay Helton is still in college football and not the offensive co-ordinator at some podunk school in rural Mississippi. Then the Jets happened, which I think enough has been written about.

Speaking of Caleb, woof that Bears offense is absolutely awful. They might want to change the coaching up at mid season or they'll be picking another QB in the top 3 in a couple of years again.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

and being able to make decisions quickly is as important as being able to make throws

Anthony Richardson is really challenging this by making the right reads but overthrowing open guys resulting in multiple interceptions per game. Not to mention all the misses of open guys on third down as well.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Speaking of Caleb, woof that Bears offense is absolutely awful. They might want to change the coaching up at mid season or they'll be picking another QB in the top 3 in a couple of years again.

The interior line is atrocious. They can't run the ball because the center and right guard get blown up on nearly every play. Coaching isn't fixing that and I'm not sold on Waldron being an issue. He's been one of the top now jead coach play callers the past couple of years but lack of run game is making everything painful.

I think Williams will be fine. His growth over 3 games is evident and what he's doing pre snap is rare for a guy so young. He's the first qb the bears have ever had that I don't have many concerns about actually.


Edit: I always felt Fields' biggest problem was his anticipation was non existent. He needed guys to be wide open and DJ Moore was thr only guy capable of that in Chicago.

[Ksyrup]

I didn't think Bryce Young could look even worse than he has considering he's not playing today, but Dalton stepping in and throwing 3 1st half TDs is like a short-term referendum on whether Young should ever take another snap in the NFL, it feels like.

[dubb93]

Idk how he’s going to end up but watching Williams today the potential is evident. They really need to fix that O Line.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I didn't think Bryce Young could look even worse than he has considering he's not playing today, but Dalton stepping in and throwing 3 1st half TDs is like a short-term referendum on whether Young should ever take another snap in the NFL, it feels like.

Just listening to someone on the radio saying the Dolphins should pull the trigger on a trade to get Young.

[Ksyrup]

That would be an interesting in-season data point for what Jim is talking about. Not that it would answer any questions on evaluation, but I'd love to see that kind of real life experiment because Young has looked terrible and has to be as low in confidence as possible.

[dubb93]

Young QBs are really over valued right now in the NFL IMO. I feel like alot of teams are starting worse options than they could have if they just started another teams older backup. I know this has always been a thing to an extent but it’s just like right in your face right now I feel like.

[Ksyrup]

Time for the Dolphins to pick up somebody - Skylar Thompson hurt now.

[miami_fan]

I have no opinion on Tom Brady as an announcer as I have not listened to him enough. But come on Tom, you can't be the guy who says that you preferred to have positive body language when your team was getting drugged 21-3. The only reason I know about the Microsoft Surface is because of you.

[larrymcg421]

I just looked at Tim Boyle's college stats - 1 TD, 13 INT. How the fuck is he in the NFL?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I just looked at Tim Boyle's college stats - 1 TD, 13 INT. How the fuck is he in the NFL?

You are missing his senior season. He tossed 11 TDs to 13 INTs his senior season at Eastern Kentucky.