12-30-2005, 10:27 AM | #351 | |
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12-30-2005, 10:52 AM | #352 |
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Barkeep pretty much covered it - there have been games where the seer can be deluded based on some set of conditions. I have not seen that in a hidden roles game, but I'm not ruling that out.
However, I want to emphasize that not one person who has raised any suspicion on me has indicated they are the seer. I brought that point up because the last game where Ardent accused me he was the seer and I was a wolf. I think it is worth noting that Ardent knew I was a wolf for three days in that game before he accused me because he was hoping I would slip up in my posts to give an indication of who my fellow wolves were. I don't believe he was able to come up with anything - nor was anyone else who was playing in that game. Where I'm heading with this is that I'm pretty careful/methodical in what I post as a wolf. Yet the accusations against me are based on me playing a loose/weak game - it doesn't match up with how I play and there are people here who have played with me before that should know this. I would encourage someone to come forward and claim they are the seer and that they have seen me as a demon. Because I will be near 100% certain that person is lying and that they are a demon. Subtle innuendo, and picking apart my statements in the game (and I'm certainly not afraid to post) is a more likely (smear) tactic for the demons at this phase in the game. Particularly since the real seer can come out and claim he is the seer and that the other person is a fake. I don't think that every person questioning me is a demon - of course not. But I do think that there is a demon or two out there who would be pretty happy if the masses go down the path of lynching me today. Edit to correct typo. Last edited by hoopsguy : 12-30-2005 at 10:53 AM. |
12-30-2005, 11:13 AM | #353 | |
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while I have a strong feeling you are a villager, I don't recomend this. As it would out the real seer and then we lose that special ability. If a demon says he saw you and you are a demon then you and he dispute it and another villager who is the real seer comes out, yes we get a demon, but then lose the seer on day 2. Let's keep up the debate, but not try and out our roles. |
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12-30-2005, 11:22 AM | #354 |
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SnDvls, I don't think the demons will try that strategy. That is usually a late game play - there isn't much reason for it when they still have all their original numbers (and possibly added one last night).
I also feel pretty good about my ability to defend myself without needing the seer to intervene. But if there is a bandwagon forming that needs to be overturned then I guess I would welcome the help. What I'm a little worried about is that there has been almost no conversation today about anyone besides me. And since I have the luxury of knowing that I'm a human I also know that this is a good turn of events for the demons. Without any kills last night we don't have any new voting patterns to look at. This is almost an extended Day 1, for all intents and purposes. I'm a little worried about Blade, although I don't have a ton of info to work with. He was one of two people who had something to gain in the Schmidty vote (Dacman being the other) since he had some votes on him. Where I posted that on Day 1 I didn't have much reason to think that Blade was a demon, I haven't seen anything from him as of yet that has pushed me strongly to villager either. I'm hoping that someone is forthcoming with information from last night that we can chew on, rather than having to make almost pure speculation. Saldana, you had mentioned that you would post today on WVUFAN and St. Cronin. I'm eager to see your thoughts on that matter ... |
12-30-2005, 11:30 AM | #355 | |
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I know it's been mentioned above, but I too find it very strange that nobody has come forward with any information about all the commotion last night. There was obviously some kind of attempt made and a fight of some sort, which makes the silence on this ring even stranger to me. I'm not sold on the whole hoops connection thus far.
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12-30-2005, 11:30 AM | #356 |
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Hoops - I see your point(s)
I just don't want us losing the seer this early that is all. I haven't done night 2 yet, but here is posting results from when roles were sent out up until schmidty's lynch. I'll tally the next one's in a bit. 1) Ardent Enthusiast -28 2) Blade6119 - 20 3) Schmidty - 0 4) Dacman - 1 5) Hoopsguy - 12 6) SnDvls - 12 7) Passacaglia - 10 8) Path12 - 12 9) St cronin – 20 10) Grammaticus - 14 11) TazFTW - 2 12) Saldana - 5 13) WVUFAN - 4 14) Kingfc22 - 4 15) Barkeep49 - 21 16) dubb93 – 5 |
12-30-2005, 11:32 AM | #357 |
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I am 99% percent sure that hoopsguy is *not* a demon. Knowing the elementals is a wash in terms of information - for us, it clears those people for lynchs (having even one person cleared is a big advantage).
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12-30-2005, 11:33 AM | #358 | |
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I don't think it would be a good thing for the seer to out himself at this point. |
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12-30-2005, 11:34 AM | #359 |
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Well I am likely gone for the rest of the day. There is a chance I'll be checking in, but if I do, I'll feel guilty about it since I'm not really supposed to, so I try and keep my check ins to a minimum. Anyhow, I belive Hoops basd on his idea that when he plays a wolf he normally plays a very tight game. I know how much thought goes into his posts when he's a wolf so I'll give him a break here, as it does seem plausible that he would be a tad less careful then when he's a villager.
Without the night kill we are indeed basically at Day 1 all over again. Therefore, I'm going to go for Taz. He had a rather weak explanation for his Day 1 vote and has been very quiet so far. I don't really have a feel for anyone, but he seems more promising than most. Vote TazTFW |
12-30-2005, 11:36 AM | #360 | |
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From Passacaglia, Post #342
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I hate posts like this because they equivocate without taking a stance. Since this is now three hours old I have nothing to work with to determine where he is headed. Every wolf is different, but it is fairly common to see them post because they feel obligated to in order to be active, but not really say anything. The above quote could be Exhibit A for that type of behavior. What I consider a better play is to apply pressure to someone that you are suspicious of, in order to draw them out. In doing this you realize and accept that you are likely to draw some attention yourself by confronting someone. Pass, the last thing I'm asking for here is for you to vote to lynch me. But I'm hoping that if you are a human that you will engage in the discussion rather than equivocating near the discussion. If you are a wolf then please feel free to carry on as you are right now |
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12-30-2005, 11:44 AM | #361 | |
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But don't the elementals have their own (secret) goals and agendas and victory conditions? I don't understand how knowing who an elemental was would clear them from lynching -- I certainly don't get the feeling that they are on our side. I understand that lynching a demon is the first and preferable call, but for my money I wouldn't be too upset to have it be an elemental. My goal is not to have it be any more humans.
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12-30-2005, 11:46 AM | #362 |
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ok, here is what happened last night...i apologize for keeping everyone in the dark, but i was hoping the demon that attacked me would make some kind of statement that i could use to out him.
(to paraphrase my pm)i go woken up by someone breaking into my home, a single man with knife tried to attack me. my role in this game is The Bard (basically the blessed), and i have the ability to talk my way out of being killed during the night (along with some help from kicking the demon in the balls). That is why there was no kill, i was saved by my role abilities and was one of the people that you all saw fighting. here is the catch. i was supposed to learn something about the person that attacked me, but when i went back to my house, there was no evidence about my assailant...that is to say, there should have been but all the evidence seemed to have magically dissappeared. i take this to mean the the demons had the favor of the elementals last night, and that influence prevented me from finding out who attacked me. this is why i had to try and hope one of the demons made a statement that i could use against them, because i dont actually know anything for fact. here is how i tie this back to wfu and cronin....before night 0, i baited the demons by saying that i had strong suspicions on 2 players but would wait until night was over...obviously knowing that i wouldnt die if they came after me made it easy for me to try to trap them (which almost worked)...now i have already stated why i suspect each of those two guys, and if i add to my consideration that they are both relatively new players, and would be easier to trap like that, even though i didnt name names, it just increased my suspicions. finally, we know that one other person has information about last night, myself and whoever attacked me...so where is that other person....several people havent said a word all day, and both of them are on that list...possibly staying quiet because they didnt know what i was going to be able to say about our encounter. i realize its alot of conjecture and not alot of fact, but i am playing my gut on day 2. vote WVUFAN |
12-30-2005, 11:50 AM | #363 | |
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I see your point but there was some discussion earlier and I think the general feeling was that we wanted to avoid lynching elementals - because you have to kill them again, anyway, and all it does is waste a lynch. |
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12-30-2005, 11:55 AM | #364 | |
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Too dumb a play for a demon to make this soon in a game, I think. vote WVUFAN One thing I was wondering ... is it possible for the rules of this game to be that demons don't kill, they only convert? That's more in line with the demon mythos, but I would think that would make it practically impossible for the humans to win, without a LOT of help. |
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12-30-2005, 11:58 AM | #365 | |
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what exactly is dumb about my play i also enjoy the fact that you commented on it without saying anything about the fact that i essentially called you a demon, thus keeping your string of making alot of posts without actually contributing anything running strong. |
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12-30-2005, 11:59 AM | #366 | |
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I simply meant that it would be a dumb play if you were a demon; meaning, I believe you are a human. |
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12-30-2005, 12:07 PM | #367 |
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Unvote Hoopsguy.
I feel comfortable with him being a villager at this point.
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12-30-2005, 12:11 PM | #368 |
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Thanks for letting us know, saldana. I'll look more into WVU and st.cronin.
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12-30-2005, 12:11 PM | #369 |
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Darn, if Saldana is on the up-and-up it sounds like we received both some good luck and bad luck last night. The biggest issue is that we don't have a 1:1 trade situation emerging here. WVUFAN is a speculative vote. Not a bad speculative vote, but not the knockout we would hope for if a blessed is attacked.
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12-30-2005, 12:18 PM | #370 |
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Here's the posting from end of day one through night one.
1) Ardent Enthusiast 7 2) Blade6119 2 3) Schmidty LYNCHED 4) Dacman 2 5) Hoopsguy 4 6) SnDvls 5 7) Passacaglia 3 8) Path12 3 9) St cronin 11 10) Grammaticus 4 11) TazFTW 0 12) Saldana 4 13) WVUFAN 0 14) Kingfc22 1 15) Barkeep49 11 16) dubb93 1 |
12-30-2005, 12:23 PM | #371 |
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I'm trying to work through how I would play the game if I was attacked and converted last night, as an effort to help evaluate Saldana's story.
- I don't think I would come out and make up a story about being blessed. Easier to lie low with this many people still active. And an invitation for the seer to look you up, particularly if the guy you accuse is lynched and human. - I think calling the role "Bard" instead of "Blessed" makes it marginally more believable insofar as it keeps with the general medieval theme of the game. - Elemental evidence removal also a nice touch if this is fiction. I'm pretty close to convinced that Saldana is on the side of the angels at this point. Obviously he is not an elemental so we are only evaluating between demon/human. Circles of trust starting to emerge - Taz, Saldana, Dubb, suspected elemental not to be named Suspicions heightened - Blade, Pass And too many people without anything close to a good read. |
12-30-2005, 12:30 PM | #372 | |
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Hopefully I'm not being too dense, but how do we know that? |
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12-30-2005, 12:33 PM | #373 | |
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Because Coffee indicated that we would all be aware if an elemental had been attacked back in post #326 last night.
Quote:
Since this was clearly not revealed to everyone if Saldana was attacked then he is not an elemental. I see zero reason for Saldana play if he isn't the Bard he says he is or a demon concerned about being fingered for an aborted attack last night. |
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12-30-2005, 12:35 PM | #374 |
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if we are going the quiet route
VOTE DACMAN I think he might have slipped by yesterday. He had 4 votes on him and only one response, then the vote shifted quickly to Schmidty 'cause he wasn't here. I want to hear more about/from WVU before I get on him as he has very few posts too. |
12-30-2005, 12:37 PM | #375 | |
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First, I'd like to point out the use of (OTHER). It would seem our GM may have made a simple typo, or simply forgot insert a snappy phrase here. Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but if the demons received favor, I think our GM would have been certain to add the part of the rhino. Second, it was my conclusion based on the vague information about the first sacrifices that the yak put up by our druid was better. Again, maybe I'm reading too much into it. Third, and finally, seeing the language used for the first sacrifices, I don't see any similar statements (such as "not as awe inspiring") for the second set of sacrifices. I find it doubtful that the demons had a favor(tm) due to this. I'm not doubting the elementals may have been involved, I'm just doubting the demons had a favor(tm). I believe saldana for the most part. I don't know what to make of the disappearing evidence, nor why if he talked his way out of it, his lack of knowledge of the person he talked out of killing him.
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12-30-2005, 12:51 PM | #376 |
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Up until this role reveal ive had saldana as my most trusted person...the one thing i dont get is he said his role allowed himself to talk his way out of it(and he said he could kick them in the balls)...at night we heared swords clashing and wood breaking...there was a full on brawl last night, not some nice little talk....if he had phrased it differently, my vote would switch...but as is i still stand on hoops for now. Saldana was open about his negative feelings for WVU on day one(right after WVU voted for me)...it would seem an incredibly stupid play if WVU was a wolf to try and kill saldana...just my comments
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12-30-2005, 12:51 PM | #377 | |
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the message that explained this said that i some sort of mystical power had a hand in making me unable to know who attacked me...that why i assume the demons had favor last night. |
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12-30-2005, 12:56 PM | #378 | |
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Quote:
You're assuming that he is being truthful in saying he was attacked. It could be that he is an elemental faking a role for some reason having to do with their 'secret victory condition.' I break it down like this: He is either telling the truth, or lying. If he is telling the truth, obviously he is human. If he is lying, the possibilities are varied. He could be the cursed, he could be a regular demon, he could be a human (seer?), he could be an elemental playing some game we don't understand. |
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12-30-2005, 12:58 PM | #379 | |
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Well, hoops. You're off my radar for now. I don't think that anything you did was that wolf-like. I mean, it seemed more like you were opening the floor for suggestions -- possibly so that we can get their favors? Anyway, I'd like to hear from WVUFAN before deciding on this one. And st. cronin again. |
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12-30-2005, 12:59 PM | #380 | |
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I'm feeling good about Saldana at this point too, but he could still be an elemental for whatever that is worth at this point. |
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12-30-2005, 12:59 PM | #381 | |
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I was with ardent in thinking the yak was the right sacrifice on the first night, but then Coffee posted that story about Thor and the goats and now I'm not so sure. If ardent is right and the humans had favor via the yak, what favor did we get? No one has come forward to say. Makes me think the demons may have had favor like saldana says. Point to saldana being human. However, it's possible the reason no one has claimed any favor is because we aren't going to be told if we did have favor or what we earned as a result. Maybe a human was attacked last night and only the demons know what really happened (we had favor and it kept anyone from dying last night). Point against saldana being human. The trout/rhino sacrifice doesn't seem to me to have garned anyone anything because Coffee was neutral in describing both. I do think the "rectum" sacrifice means warlock=trout and druid=rhino, but what does that mean as far as who is human vs. demon? Every argument I can come up with to go one way on someone, I find an equally plausible reason to go the other way. I thought for sure hoopsguy was a demon at one point. Now I think he's definately human. One thing I do know -- some people are being TOO quiet. I hope you still don't consider me one of them.
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12-30-2005, 01:00 PM | #382 | |
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it is my understanding that i delayed his killing me with talk, then planted my boot in his nads, and fought my way to safety (which you saw the end of) |
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12-30-2005, 01:02 PM | #383 |
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So you talked to the demon, but have no idea who you talked to?
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12-30-2005, 01:03 PM | #384 |
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TWO MORE NOTES:
IF WE HAD FAVOR, ONLY THE DRUID WOULD KNOW...AND BY GOD WE DONT WANT THE DRUID COMING OUT AND SAYING ANYTHING OR HE WILL BE NIGHT KILLED IF AN ELEMENTAL WAS ATTAKED LAST NIGHT, WE WOULD KNOW IT...COFFEE MADE IT CLEAE THAT IF AN ELEMENTAL WAS LYNCHED/NIGHT KILLED, THUS REVERTING TO HUMAN FORM, EVERYONE WOULD BE AWARE OF IT.
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12-30-2005, 01:03 PM | #385 |
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I'm about to head out for a while, maybe the rest of the evening. So I would like to get a vote out there. I still cannot read much other than Saldana seems on the up and up. I have a lot of distrust for the quiter ones that are laying underneath it all. So I want to vote for one of them.
VOTE WVUFAN I'm still suspicious of the vote shifts that occurred on day one. So Dacman and Blade worry me a bit. If the shift was not to Scmitty I would feel a lot worse. |
12-30-2005, 01:05 PM | #386 | |
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I think this is solid reasoning that pretty much reflects how I see things at this point. |
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12-30-2005, 01:06 PM | #387 |
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dola,
I know that turns the heat up on WVU. I also expect votes to shift a bit by end of voting, so I want to see if that will get something out of WVU or see who comes to protect him. |
12-30-2005, 01:07 PM | #388 |
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To be honest, I forgot kingfc22 has even been playing.
My vote may go his way. I'd like to hear from WVU first.
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12-30-2005, 01:09 PM | #389 | |
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12-30-2005, 01:11 PM | #390 |
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Something doesnt add up for me here...at the risk of getting myself killed tomorrow or tonight, i will yet again put myself in the spotlight(first time was avoiding that lynch)...His story doesnt fit with the sounds we heared last night. He tried to add on he fought his way out after i asked about it, but if it really happened coffee would have put it in the original PM and he would have included it in his original post about the night...
My guess, bodyguard got lucky and saved someone, and for all i know it was WVU fan...saldana might have been the attacking wolf and after fighting they saw each other and now saldana wants him dead...either way if im wrong feel free to try to lynch me...it might just not go as quickly as you would like UNVOTE HOOPSGUY VOTE SALDANA
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12-30-2005, 01:11 PM | #391 | |
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12-30-2005, 01:12 PM | #392 |
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Here is what I'm seeing on votes, as of Post #389
Hoopsguy - Blade (334) Blade - Dubb (341) Taz - Barkeep (359) WVU - Saldana (362), Cronin (364), Gram (385) Dacman - SnDvls (374) Good to see some chatter going after a slow start. |
12-30-2005, 01:14 PM | #393 |
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Updated to reflect Blade's switch, now as of Post #392.
Blade - Dubb (341) Taz - Barkeep (359) WVU - Saldana (362), Cronin (364), Gram (385) Dacman - SnDvls (374) Saldana - Blade (390) |
12-30-2005, 01:14 PM | #394 |
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I take it that a succesful attack on an elemental would reveal their identity - but that an unsuccesful attack (for whatever reason) might keep their identity a secret.
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12-30-2005, 01:16 PM | #395 | |
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Quote:
Your implying he is an elemental and blessed...that would be two secret roles...im going to go out on a limb that coffee would not make an elemental blessed(99.9% sure)....elementals already avoid one lynch/night kill...to give them blessed would stack the deck...im sorry, i just dont buy that...and if he was an elemental that actually got attacked, it would say it or smething very close...not some fight scene and some bard role reveal...nope
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12-30-2005, 01:18 PM | #396 |
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Saldana, I've gone through Post #362 a couple of times. Can you restate why you think WVU more strongly than Cronin? You have listed both as suspicious and lumped some behaviors as common across both. Is the quiet nature of WVU the deciding factor for you choosing between those two with your vote today or is there another factor that I'm missing?
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12-30-2005, 01:18 PM | #397 | |
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What part of EVERYONE KNOWS in Coffee's post did you not understand? You seem to be trying to mislead people on purpose!
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12-30-2005, 01:20 PM | #398 | |
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ok, so i defended you yesterday, and now you are voting for me today because i didnt include what appeared to me to be obvious in my original 50+ line post. do you realize how blatantly stupid it would have been for me to say anything if i was being anything but completely honest....i have had no attention cast at me all game and could have continued to allow all of you to have no clue what happened last night. Instead i intentionally brought everyones attention on myself in an effort to give you all some information about what was going on, and in doing so admitted that I DONT have any concrete information.... I called out WVUFAN before i made any statements about what happened last night, and because my paraphasing of CW's insanely bizarre writing style doesnt match with what you wanted to hear, you are now voting for me. talk about taking one for the team |
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12-30-2005, 01:21 PM | #399 | |
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Quick question for you hoops...am i not mistaken, if hes to be believed, he voted WVU on the mere fact that he thinks wvu would want him dead since he called out WVU on day one?...seems like a wolf wouldnt try to kill the one person calling them out(like barkeep with me last game)...just so much of this doesnt compute to me
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12-30-2005, 01:22 PM | #400 | |
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I can't see why you would think an elemental was targeted last night, Gram.
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