POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[tarcone]

Im not sure how polling works. But I bet they call area codes where its esiest to get a bunch of answers. Thus big cities. Which I think with will fall into HRC support.
I cant imagine they are calling an area code where joe blow who is alone ina county

I may be wrong. As I have been once or twice in my life, but I think it will be closer than what the polls say.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

And back at you.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Im not sure how polling works.

You don't say?

[cuervo72]

It's hard to find rural Americans to call, but at the same time there are enough of them that we are underestimating them.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

It's hard to find rural Americans to call, but at the same time there are enough of them that we are underestimating them.

This being my point. Liberals beware. Your overconfidence is fun.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Radii

You don't say?

Leave it to a liberal to take things out of context.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Leave it to a liberal to take things out of context.

Here is the full statement you made:

Originally Posted by tarcone

Im not sure how polling works. But I bet they call area codes where its esiest to get a bunch of answers. Thus big cities. Which I think with will fall into HRC support.
I cant imagine they are calling an area code where joe blow who is alone ina county

You just made up, in your head, how you think polling might work, without doing any research, and decided it unfairly benefits HRC, and are using it to get angry at "us liberals". You don't know how polling works.

[tarcone]

It was conjecture. I have been called once. And I live just outside of a large Metropolitan area.

I have family in smaller population areas and they havent been called.

While I dont know the exact routine, from personal experience I can guess. While it may be wrong, it is what I go by. And I may be wrong.

You take that and put me down. Typical Liberal response.

[HomerSimpson98]

I will vote for the candidate who takes away all Internet privileges from people from Missouri. Good grief.

[cuervo72]

Taking Trump voters’ concerns seriously means listening to what they’re actually saying - Vox

The American press is overwhelmingly made up of left-of-center white people who live in large cities and have internalized very strong anti-racist norms. As a result, it tends to be composed of people who think of racism as a very, very serious character defect, and who are riddled with anxiety about being perceived as out of touch with “real America.” “Real America” being, per decades of racially charged tropes in our culture, white, non-urban America.

So in comes Donald Trump, a candidate running on open white nationalism whose base is whites who — while not economically struggling compared with poor whites backing Hillary Clinton and doing way better economically than black or Latino people backing Clinton — definitely live in the “real America” which journalists feel a yearning to connect to and desperately don’t want to be out of touch with.

Describing these people as motivated by racial resentment, per journalists’ deep-seated belief that racism is a major character defect, seems cruel and un-empathetic, even if it’s supported by extensive amounts of social scientific research and indeed by the statements of Trump’s supporters themselves.

I think as a board we are willing to put Trump supporters down because we don't have the same concerns the media does here, and we're more willing to cut through the bullshit and call things as we see them.

Now, do we think you personally are of this mindset? No, not necessarily. But if you're arguing on the behalf of folks who we are likely to perceive to be of that mindset (Trump supporters), yeah -- we might be a little critical of you.

[tarcone]

Wow. Free speech sucks doesnt it. Especially when you disagree with it. Another typical liberal response.

[tarcone]

And "real America" is going to flock to the polls. There is a real resentment towards HRC and what she represents. What I haeve been saying in here is "real America" and the liberals put me down and ignore what I say.

There are 10s of millions that feel the way that i am talking. And they will vote.

[Flasch186]

Lol

[Radii]

tarcone, I don't care who you support or why. What the fuck does this have to do with free speech? What does it have to do with "you liberals"? You are just making shit up (you're calling it conjecture) about how polling works.

We're not arguing about policy. We're not arguing about right vs left, liberal vs conservative. You're getting called out for making factually incorrect and irresponsible statements. There's no politics here. I don't need to know a thing about you to call you out for being factually wrong and basing all of your points on a factually wrong statement.

My tone while doing so, by the way, has nothing to do with politics either. You were making shit up and being a condescending dickbag about it while doing so. That's how you get this tone in response, not by being a Trump supporter.

[CrescentMoonie]

This is making me wish there was an IQ test for voting privileges.

[ColtCrazy]

I live in rural southern Indiana, and I can say I'm very worried about a Trump win in the election. I recently drove from my home to north of Cincinnati, about a 2 hour drive. I bet the sign count was 100-1 for Trump. I'm a vast minority on Facebook now where pretty much everyday I get an endless string of WTF posts ranging from Trump as a profit to why Hillary is the anti-Christ. I'll continue to fight the good fight I didn't stand a chance anyway, being a Bernie fan.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Wow. Free speech sucks doesnt it. Especially when you disagree with it. Another typical liberal response.

Free speech doesn't mean we have to credit you with a rational opinion when you're putting the tinfoil on your head and the pencils up your nose.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Radii

tarcone, I don't care who you support or why. What the fuck does this have to do with free speech? What does it have to do with "you liberals"? You are just making shit up (you're calling it conjecture) about how polling works.

We're not arguing about policy. We're not arguing about right vs left, liberal vs conservative. You're getting called out for making factually incorrect and irresponsible statements. There's no politics here. I don't need to know a thing about you to call you out for being factually wrong and basing all of your points on a factually wrong statement.

My tone while doing so, by the way, has nothing to do with politics either. You were making shit up and being a condescending dickbag about it while doing so. That's how you get this tone in response, not by being a Trump supporter.

And Im saying the polls are incorrect and being called an idiot for it.

Look at what Coltcrazy just posted. This is what Im talking about.

I think the polls are incorrect. And every time I point it out. A liberal speaks up and puts me down. " I hope they take voting away from MO", "There should ne an IQ test for voters".

And, yet, Im the piece of shit. You liberals in this circle jerk of a thread, need to pull your heads our of you asses. HRC is not a sure thing, regardless of what your left leaning press tells you. I live in the rural Midwest. I know what I see. And you may be surprised.

Sop get off your high horses and lets discuss politics and policy. And not name call and put down.

And, yes, I said "you liberals" because this board is full of the "Im better than you, lets laugh at the common man on the right" type of libertals and its too bad.

Given the intellectual power of this board the close-mindness of it is sad.

[SirFozzie]

Dola:

And before you launch into your latest conspiracy theory, let me save the time and effort for you by googling "How Does Polling work?"

Briefing: How polls work

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Free speech doesn't mean we have to credit you with a rational opinion when you're putting the tinfoil on your head and the pencils up your nose.

And continually insulting people is a typical response. And a dangerous one.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Dola:

And before you launch into your latest conspiracy theory, let me save the time and effort for you by googling "How Does Polling work?"

Briefing: How polls work

And statistics can say whatever you want them to. McMullen leads in Utah. Is that really accurate?

[tarcone]

I will give you a conspiracy theory. HRC rigged the primaries, so she will rig the national to win. Pay off the electoral college, despite the votes in the state. And there you go.

How is that for a conspiracy theory? Or will it be reality?

[SirFozzie]

Dangerous?

Let's put it this way. You are a low-information voter about polls. But that is because you are a low EFFORT to get information voter. I spent 60 seconds googling, and I found two major pages that explain polling, and cross tabs.

You couldn't be assed to do that. Maybe because you're lazy, or maybe because you believe that you can't trust anything you read on the internet except that which agrees with your preconceptions.

so you make shit up, and then attack others based on the shit you've just pulled out of your ass.

So when you refuse to put in the effort to download reality, yes, people are going to not credit you and ignore you.

[ColtCrazy]

There's no denying that this election has really divided this nation. Spend 5 minutes on Twitter reading comments and you'll see how vile humans can be.

What interests me is that many of the support staff in my school are pro-Trump, yet Trump has made it clear he's a backer of charter schools. This would likely cut my budget meaning the first people to go would be those same support staff.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And statistics can say whatever you want them to. McMullen leads in Utah. Is that really accurate?

He doesn't lead in a single poll. Not one single poll.

So again, you're making up shit as you go along.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/utah/

[jbergey22]

The vocal minority can be very loud when they are backed into a corner. Thankfully many of the facebook messages backing Trump have slowed. I think many of the Trump supporters have either lost faith or are embarrassed by continuing to show support for him and his act.

In todays technology age I really doubt the polls are that far off.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Dangerous?

Let's put it this way. You are a low-information voter about polls. But that is because you are a low EFFORT to get information voter. I spent 60 seconds googling, and I found two major pages that explain polling, and cross tabs.

You couldn't be assed to do that. Maybe because you're lazy, or maybe because you believe that you can't trust anything you read on the internet except that which agrees with your preconceptions.

so you make shit up, and then attack others based on the shit you've just pulled out of your ass.

So when you refuse to put in the effort to download reality, yes, people are going to not credit you and ignore you.

So your reality is based on what you pulled off the internet, which you just insulted me for believing what I read on the internet?

Yep. Keep grasping.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And statistics can say whatever you want them to. McMullen leads in Utah. Is that really accurate?

No he doesn't. The latest polls have him at 22%, 4 points behind Clinton and Trump. Please learn how to read numbers.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

So your reality is based on what you pulled off the internet, which you just insulted me for believing what I read on the internet?

Yep. Keep grasping.

... The only thing that's grasping here, is your hand on your intellectual pecker here.

I'm providing links to peer-reviewed information and places such as Cornell University.

(case in point, how crosstabs show the breakdown of who they polled, which reputable pollsters do)

Polling Fundamentals - Roper Center

You are making shit up as you go along.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The vocal minority can be very loud when they are backed into a corner. Thankfully many of the facebook messages backing Trump have slowed. I think many of the Trump supporters have either lost faith or are embarrassed by continuing to show support for him and his act.

In todays technology age I really doubt the polls are that far off.

Im not sure about this. My feed is the same as before. The liberals are pumping HRC and the Trump supporters are just as vocal.

I truly believe there is a segment mising from the poling. And I think the vote will be much closer that the polls say. Will Trump win? I dont know. But, it will be closer than anyone on this board thinks.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ColtCrazy

There's no denying that this election has really divided this nation.

... and family. There's difference of opinion in my family (still trying to figure this out)

Sent in my absentee ballot today. Glad its done.

[SirFozzie]

And oh btw, Nate Silver admitted he was wrong about Trump's rise in the GOP primary, but um.. using the formula he's used in 2008 and 2012, he called 99 out of 100 states right.

And he gets his information from polls.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

... The only thing that's grasping here, is your hand on your intellectual pecker here.

I'm providing links to peer-reviewed information and places such as Cornell University.

(case in point, how crosstabs show the breakdown of who they polled, which reputable pollsters do)

Polling Fundamentals - Roper Center

You are making shit up as you go along.

And, again, you are pointing to my point exactly. Why call an area where you may get one response? I can call this area code and get 100 responses. Jees, lets see where the typical type of voter will be? In the area where you may get one response or 100?

Your holier than thou attitude is typical and the reason Trump is doing as well as he is. Keep being elitist and watch your candidate lose because of people sick of the liberal elitist attitude.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

And oh btw, Nate Silver admitted he was wrong about Trump's rise in the GOP primary, but um.. using the formula he's used in 2008 and 2012, he called 99 out of 100 states right.

And he gets his information from polls.

Oh, and he was wrong about Trump. You make this easy.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And Im saying the polls are incorrect and being called an idiot for it.

Show your work. What's your rationale? Beyond "I feel it in my gut and/or really really want that to be true."

I think the polls are incorrect. And every time I point it out. A liberal speaks up and puts me down. " I hope they take voting away from MO", "There should ne an IQ test for voters".

But you've literally said you don't know how polling works and posited that they probably just call phone numbers in a metro area because they're more likely to get answers and thus it somehow means LA and NYC are skewing the results and ignoring "real America" or "real Americans." I mean, you're literally asserting that the people being polled aren't "real Americans."

Yes, the above statements are kind of jerky, but your assertion to this point has been that the polls aren't wrong because you don't believe they're actually polling "real Americans" and that that silent majority is going to sweep Trump to power despite the toxic-waste meltdown he's been having for the last two weeks. Surely you can understand why they might be burying their face in their palms over your statements right now.

And, yet, Im the piece of shit. You liberals in this circle jerk of a thread, need to pull your heads our of you asses. HRC is not a sure thing, regardless of what your left leaning press tells you. I live in the rural Midwest. I know what I see. And you may be surprised.

1) Yes, you kind of are. Sorry, but as long as we're calling it like we see it...

2) No, she isn't. The polls don't tell the story of what will absolutely definitely no question happen. The polls tell the story of what a (hopefully) representative sample of the population support. If you look at 538, they've still got Trump with, last I checked, about a 16% chance of victory. That's Russian Roulette odds. Would you load a revolver with a single bullet, spin the chamber, put the gun to your head, and confidently say "there's no chance I'm about to blow my own brains out"? Of course not. You'd be reasonably sure you're probably not about to die, but those ain't the kind of odds you take on faith unless you're shitfaced drunk.

3) Personal experience is personal experience. Nothing more. People tend to aggregate around other people of like mind. If you see Trump/Pence signs all over the place in Missouri, that's an indication that your neighborhood in Missouri is pro-Trump. It doesn't mean the entire state is pro-Trump - though the polls currently suggest he'll win Missouri - and even if the entire Midwest is as reliably Republican as it usually is, there aren't enough electoral votes there to carry Trump to victory.

3a) You live in the "rural Midwest." Yes. You know what that means? The Midwest gets denigrated as "flyover country" for a reason. There's about 33 electoral votes in the entire Midwest generally available to a Republican candidate for President. I mean, I guess you could designate Oklahoma and Texas as Midwest instead of the South, but that still only gets you to 78. And those are electoral votes that, with the recent'ish exception of Missouri, are full of people who for the last 30 years or more would rather die than vote Democratic. To the extent any of those states are in play, it's because of the personal failings of Donald Trump. To the extent that they're behind Donald Trump, you aren't seeing anything different this year than you would have seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, ad infinitum. You might see MORE of it, but it doesn't matter whether Trump wins Missouri by 10 points, 30 points, or 70 points - it still only counts for 10 electoral votes. The electoral map on the evening of November 8 could be so red in the Midwest that it's literally dripping blood, and it wouldn't matter. That's not any kind of a change from years past.

The issue Trump is having right now is that he's struggling in North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and even Georgia seems to be on the cusp. Texas probably isn't in play, but it's closer than it's been in a long damn time. And those outcomes matter probably about 1000% more to the outcome of the election than whether you see Trump/Pence signs in Missouri.

And, yes, I said "you liberals" because this board is full of the "Im better than you, lets laugh at the common man on the right" type of libertals and its too bad.

Except that's the first thing you, and your ideological cohorts, reach for when you're arguing politics. "Liberal" gets wielded as a weapon, and anybody ideologically opposed to a conservative Republican must therefore be a liberal. It's conservative language for "you're bad people who should feel bad."

[SirFozzie]

If you think trump is doing well, then good luck to you, you're beyond help.

All we can go by is what the polls say (which has proven broadly correct in the past in aggregate. Some pollers, like Rasmussen Reports, missed heavily), and other empirical information, such as voter registration numbers.

People thought that the "hidden electorate" would show up in 2008.

They didn't.

People thought the "hidden Romney supporters" would show up in 2012. Guess what? Despite the fervent wishes of folks like Unskewed Polls, they didn't show up.

Even the site run by people who RUN Trump's campaign (Breitbart) have Clinton ahead.

But if you think that, more power to you. Just hope that you come back to reality November 9th, but more likely you'll just scream "Rigged Chicago Machine Blah Blah Blah multiple voters blah blah blah international globalist conspiracy". And that's a shame.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Why call an area where you may get one response?

Because the calls are not done by people, they are done by a computer, and it can keep trying to find rural respondents until it finds enough. There are nearly 60 million people living in rural areas in the US. They don't have any trouble finding enough people in rural areas to conduct their phone surveys.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I will give you a conspiracy theory. HRC rigged the primaries, so she will rig the national to win. Pay off the electoral college, despite the votes in the state. And there you go.

How is that for a conspiracy theory? Or will it be reality?

1) most states have laws against "faithless electors."

2) the electors who cast their ballots tend to be selected by the winner of the states. When you vote for Trump in Missouri next month, you aren't voting for Trump, you're voting for the Trump-sympathetic electors who will cast their vote for him in the Electoral College.

3) THEREFORE: any conspiracy on Clinton's part to buy off the electors "despite the votes in the state" means that...carry the one...you don't think Trump supporters can be counted on to support Trump over Clinton if money gets flashed in their face.

4) If you think Trump's electors are as disloyal as that, Trump's electors getting bought off would be fundamentally indistinguishable from Trump's electors going "oh FUCK no I'm waking up from a horrible nightmare. CLINTON CLINTON CLINTON CLINTON MUSHROOM MUSHROOM" Those two things are about equally likely.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And "real America" is going to flock to the polls. There is a real resentment towards HRC and what she represents. What I haeve been saying in here is "real America" and the liberals put me down and ignore what I say.

There are 10s of millions that feel the way that i am talking. And they will vote.

Just stop. In five of the last six presidential elections "real" America has fewer votes that not "real" America. Maybe it would be more accurate to say that you're ignoring real America because you refuse to break out of your elitist bubble and see the real resentment towards Trump.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by tarcone

HRC is not a sure thing, regardless of what your left leaning press tells you. I live in the rural Midwest. I know what I see. And you may be surprised.

I don't think she's a sure thing, not when forecasts still give Trump a 15-20% chance of winning. Nothing is sure until it's finalized.

But...yes, you live in the rural Midwest. 538 has NE, KS, MO all going to Trump. WY, ND, SD, MT, OK, AR, IN if we want to extend a little further. Where else are you seeing that we might be surprised about?

Originally Posted by tarcone

I will give you a conspiracy theory. HRC rigged the primaries, so she will rig the national to win. Pay off the electoral college, despite the votes in the state. And there you go.

How is that for a conspiracy theory? Or will it be reality?

Pay off the electoral college. How does that happen exactly? She's going to find Trump electors and flip them?

(Also, yes, HRC had the DNC behind her in the primaries. Favored != Rigged. Rigged implies that she won some state where Bernie actually had more votes. In which state specifically was this the case? Or not even state, considering the D primary delegates were proportional. Is there evidence of specific precincts? And don't give me superdelegates.)

[SirFozzie]

Oh, and btw, you know why Nate was wrong? He didn't trust his own numbers. He STILL called 92% of the primaries with his data, just that he fell into his own trap.

In a comparison of prediction success published by Bloomberg News after the primary season was completed, FiveThirtyEight's prediction success tied for the highest percentage of correct primary poll winners, at 92%;

[tarcone]

You equate Romney and 2008 to Trump?

You go by your polls. And good for you. But they are missing a large section of America. Think what you want.

I think stats can be used how you want. And I see a misjudgement here.

Yes, I use liberal as a "weapon". I do so because of the fantasy the liberals live in. What a waste of intelligence. It could be used for actual good. Yet it is used for fantasy. What a waste.

[SirFozzie]

Oh, health care and making sure that corporations don't take whatever's left of America is fantasy?

And I shouldn't equate Romney and McCain to Trump..

they were polling much better than him.

[tarcone]

MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Oh, health care and making sure that corporations don't take whatever's left of America is fantasy?

And I shouldn't equate Romney and McCain to Trump..

they were polling much better than him.

Healthcare should be free (My liberal weak spot)

And China is taking whats left of America. GO TPP. Make it easier.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

yeah, this pretty much sums it up, you're in your own reality. Have a nice life.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Healthcare should be free (My liberal weak spot)

And China is taking whats left of America. GO TPP. Make it easier.

So we do have something to agree on. So let's start from there..

Tell ya what, since neither of us will get the other to agree, why don't we settle this in a time honored manner?

No, not pistols at dawn. (I'm a horrible shot)

How about a signature bet or a charity donation bet?

For example, we could say that if Trump wins, I have to make a $50 donation to say, RAINN:

RAINN | The nation's largest anti-sexual violence organization

If Clinton wins, you'd have to make a similar donation, I'll let you choose (nothing overtly political?)

Then, no matter who wins, and who is "right", charity wins?

Just a thought.

[tarcone]

Im down. I will donate to American Diabetes Association.

We wont change each others minds. What I think is what I believe. No matter what stat you throw at me, I dont think it is valid.

I truly believe, just like in the primaries, there is a vote out there being ignored or under polled.

[tarcone]

Lets look at this

#WomenWhoVoteTrump: These are the women who support Trump | FOX2now.com

Suburban Moms, first time women voters, Well educated women stepping up for Trump.

Another stereotype shot down.

[SirFozzie]

I think one thing we can all agree on.. the "Game Change" book about this election will be interesting reading