The Trump Presidency – 2016

[tarcone]

Sounds like a typical attack on an Asian population.
Hopefully, we learned from the 1st Korea and Viet Nam and WW2 for that matter.
It might be better to just assassinate the crazy dude.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

I am not sure I agree about the run off. What you say is certainly the conventional wisdom, but run offs become almost solely a turnout contest. Ossoff will have a tremendous cash advantage and he's built a pretty respectable and motivated base. He may be able to get them to show up twice--I just don't remember a cash mismatch like this.

I'm not just referring to showing up twice as a problem in the runoff. I don't think he's going to lose by 14 pts in the runoff like Jim Martin did in the runoff as there's definitely more enthusiasm to keep it close. I'm more worried about the coalescing of votes and enthusiasm for the GOP once one emerges as the runoff contender. I saw one poll that said Ossoff was only the second choice of 1% of voters, which would be very problematic.

I sure hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

It might be better to just assassinate the crazy dude.

That's my vote ... but make it look at an accident.

[Groundhog]

I’m not sure assassinating the current Kim is going to achieve a whole lot, to be honest – outside of start a war. From what I’ve read over the years he sounds like he leans closer to figurehead than he does unilateral dictator

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

That's my vote ... but make it look at an accident.

Do we need to hire Seth Rogen and James Franco to do it?

[Edward64]

I'm pretty sure they would screw it up!

[digamma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'm not just referring to showing up twice as a problem in the runoff. I don't think he's going to lose by 14 pts in the runoff like Jim Martin did in the runoff as there's definitely more enthusiasm to keep it close. I'm more worried about the coalescing of votes and enthusiasm for the GOP once one emerges as the runoff contender. I saw one poll that said Ossoff was only the second choice of 1% of voters, which would be very problematic.

I sure hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Right I acknowledge and get all of that. It still comes down to turning out your vote in the run off. In the last 20 years, turn out drops by about 40% between a main and a run off election. Historically it is even larger. My only point is that if Ossoff can turn out his voters in similar form in both the main and the run off then he could be the 18th choice of those who vote against him in the run off and he's going to have a pretty good shot at winning.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Sounds like a typical attack on an Asian population.
Hopefully, we learned from the 1st Korea and Viet Nam and WW2 for that matter.
It might be better to just assassinate the crazy dude.

Presumably there's just more crazy on the bench tho.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by digamma

I am not sure I agree about the run off. What you say is certainly the conventional wisdom, but run offs become almost solely a turnout contest. Ossoff will have a tremendous cash advantage and he's built a pretty respectable and motivated base. He may be able to get them to show up twice--I just don't remember a cash mismatch like this.

Ossoff looking good in early vote counting, but its going to be close.

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) | Twitter

[Thomkal]

Unfortunately he could not hold on to early momentum, and now looks like a runoff with Karen Handel

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Unfortunately he could not hold on to early momentum, and now looks like a runoff with Karen Handel

So it ends up being uber liberal vs liberal.

[QuikSand]

I think Ossoff will end up with about 48%... not enough.

[Edward64]

AJC.com is showing Ossoff with 54%, updated as of 9:29pm.

(Oh, 32% reported in)

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So it ends up being uber liberal vs liberal.

Your ideal candidates I know Jon

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Your ideal candidates I know Jon

Hey, I've lived in the state with such stellar elected officials as McKinney, Lewis, and "Guam-Is-Tipping" Johson. I'll survive Asshat.

edit to add: even survived the barely tenable situation of having Cynnnnnnnthiuh as my actual rep for a year or so.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I think Ossoff will end up with about 48%... not enough.

Yeah, based on where the reported vote is coming from versus left to count, this seems to be the number.

[Thomkal]

Chaffetz won't run for reelection in 2018 - POLITICO

[PilotMan]

Color me shocked?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-s...ons-1492620677

WASHINGTON— Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM -0.69% has applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from U.S. sanctions on Russia in a bid to resume its joint venture with state oil giant PAO Rosneft, according to people familiar with the matter.
Exxon has been seeking U.S. permission to drill with Rosneft in several areas banned by sanctions and renewed a push for approval in March, shortly after its most recent chief executive, Rex Tillerson, became secretary of state on Feb. 1, according to one of these people. The company originally applied for a waiver to gain access to the Black Sea in July 2015 but its application wasn’t approved, the person said.

[Edward64]

So anyone know what the true story is behind the (mis)communication re: the armada?

I can't believe we would deliberately lie about it and the Chinese/Russian/ROK satellites surely would have known (but nothing came out).

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I can't believe we would deliberately lie about it

...you don't? If it's being used as a muscle-flexing show not for the benefit of NK, but to convince the American people that Trump is strong?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So anyone know what the true story is behind the (mis)communication re: the armada?

I can't believe we would deliberately lie about it and the Chinese/Russian/ROK satellites surely would have known (but nothing came out).

I haven't followed the story much, but Trump has been very clear during the election and after that he does not want to let potential/real enemies know where American forces are via the media. So I think it was partly that, and probably partly inexperience/being on the same page with the various people who commented on the armada.

[Groundhog]

Not telling the media is one thing, but I'm not sure major foreign powers need news reports to tell them where another nation's naval fleet is.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

It might be better to just assassinate the crazy dude.

But then we're still left with Pence...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Not telling the media is one thing, but I'm not sure major foreign powers need news reports to tell them where another nation's naval fleet is.

No probably not but I'm also sure major foreign powers use our media as one of their sources of information.

[AENeuman]

Had my Econ students interview family on healthcare. Here are my 2 favorite quotes:

What do you see as the main problems with the current system?

"I'm having to pay for some no-good sick person with my money, thanks to Obama!"

"Donald Trump is the big fucking problem!"

Overall it was pretty even: 1/3 Liberal/Universal, 1/3 Conservative/Privatization, 1/3 Don't know/Don't care. Definitely shows the need for educators to provide information and context to such emotional and personal experiences.

[mckerney]

Chaffetz is not running for reelection in 2018, may be resigning his seat as soon as tomorrow.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

No probably not but I'm also sure major foreign powers use our media as one of their sources of information.

That was the case more during the first golf war era through the early war on terror years than now. At that time it was the best way to get news on our troop movements and developments. Now with level of information technology out there it's not needed or relied on as heavily.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

"I'm having to pay for some no-good sick person with my money, thanks to Obama!"

I don't feel like they understand the basic concept of insurance.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Chaffetz is not running for reelection in 2018, may be resigning his seat as soon as tomorrow.

Yesterday I thought this was just about cashing in on a government career, but his resignation implies that there's something else going on. I wonder if the real story will still break?

[cartman]

He's just wanting to spend more time with Семьи. Err, family.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by cartman

He's just wanting to spend more time with Семьи. Err, family.

Ahhh, cartman has been a spam bot the whole time.

[cartman]

(shh)

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Chaffetz is not running for reelection in 2018, may be resigning his seat as soon as tomorrow.

That's so yesterday news (when I posted that here ) Pretty big thorn out of the Dems hair if he does.

[JPhillips]

President-elect Donald Trump was very clear: “I will appoint a team to give me a plan within 90 days of taking office,” he said in January, after getting a U.S. intelligence assessment of Russian interference in last year’s elections and promising to address cybersecurity.

Thursday, Trump hits his 90-day mark. There is no team, there is no plan, and there is no clear answer from the White House on who would even be working on what.

Everything is a con.

[Thomkal]

maybe Sessions needs to go sit on an island somewhere...

Jeff Sessions doesn’t think a judge in Hawaii — a.k.a. ‘an island in the Pacific’ — should overrule Trump - The Washington Post

[Edward64]

So WTF is going on over there. May just be wishful thinking from the 'US defense official' and it may be a reaction to the recent aggressive US tone?

If Donald did actually get the Chinese totally on our side and they are now going to do something about NK ...

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/politi...ina/index.html

Washington (CNN)Chinese air force land-attack, cruise-missile-capable bombers were put "on high alert" on Wednesday as the US sees evidence that the Chinese military is preparing to respond to a potential situation in North Korea, a US defense official tells CNN.

The official said the US has also seen an extraordinary number of Chinese military aircraft being brought up to full readiness through intensified maintenance.

These recent steps by the Chinese are assessed as part of an effort to "reduce the time to react to a North Korea contingency," the official said.

[QuikSand]

I know there are more sexy things to fret over, but at some point, doesn't the horrifying lack of actual leadership in government matter? We've seen this in bits and pieces... of the top jobs at the State Department, they have filled something like one of 100... of all these senior US Attorneys fired for being Obama holdovers simply have not been replaced... and so forth. It's pretty clear (regardless of what side you're on, I'd think) that this President and Administration have less interest than usual in the actual day-to-day conduct of government business, and I guess we knew we were getting that. But doesn't this actually matter at some point? Or is this just yet another left/right talking point where the true believers will tell us that since the sun continue to rise in the East, that's evidence that we don't actually need a true State Department, and can get by with an occasional official visit somewhere from Ivanka instead? (and so on and so forth)

[JPhillips]

According to Trump, next week the ACHA will be passed through the House, a tax reform plan will be introduced and an increase to the debt limit will be passed and signed.

We should all plan on a government shutdown, I guess.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I know there are more sexy things to fret over, but at some point, doesn't the horrifying lack of actual leadership in government matter? We've seen this in bits and pieces... of the top jobs at the State Department, they have filled something like one of 100... of all these senior US Attorneys fired for being Obama holdovers simply have not been replaced... and so forth. It's pretty clear (regardless of what side you're on, I'd think) that this President and Administration have less interest than usual in the actual day-to-day conduct of government business, and I guess we knew we were getting that. But doesn't this actually matter at some point? Or is this just yet another left/right talking point where the true believers will tell us that since the sun continue to rise in the East, that's evidence that we don't actually need a true State Department, and can get by with an occasional official visit somewhere from Ivanka instead? (and so on and so forth)

I don't think it'll matter to many people unless if affects their daily lives. There's a good portion of people, especially on the right, that see these jobs as do-nothing crony jobs anyways.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We should all plan on a government shutdown, I guess.

Nothing better than being forced to go to work and waiting for the backpay to be approved and processed.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I know there are more sexy things to fret over, but at some point, doesn't the horrifying lack of actual leadership in government matter? We've seen this in bits and pieces... of the top jobs at the State Department, they have filled something like one of 100... of all these senior US Attorneys fired for being Obama holdovers simply have not been replaced... and so forth. It's pretty clear (regardless of what side you're on, I'd think) that this President and Administration have less interest than usual in the actual day-to-day conduct of government business, and I guess we knew we were getting that. But doesn't this actually matter at some point? Or is this just yet another left/right talking point where the true believers will tell us that since the sun continue to rise in the East, that's evidence that we don't actually need a true State Department, and can get by with an occasional official visit somewhere from Ivanka instead? (and so on and so forth)

It seems to be a combination of ideology, control, incompetence and a lack of people willing to serve. There's probably also some degree of laziness or at least an unwillingness to do the hard work of staffing the lower level appointees.

It will certainly matter at some point. When Pence went to SK we had no ambassador to SK or Japan and no Far East deputy at State. My guess is everything, or almost everything is being run by DoD, which while competently staffed, has an obvious bias towards escalation.

It also is at least partially to blame for the lack of legislation signed by Trump. There just aren't enough skilled, experienced folks to write and/or negotiate legislative language. The WH is entirely dependent on Congress to create and negotiate legislation, but they don't trust them, so failure gets repeated.

But, yes, the average voter doesn't care about staffing. We pay a guy to do that, so most just assume that whatever happens is the "right" answer. They won't care about staffing per se, but they will care when nothing gets done or disasters arise without competent people in place to deal with them. Trump's been relatively lucky so far, but that won't hold for four years.

[lungs]

http://fortune.com/2017/04/19/trump-...-canada-trade/

The Trumpster is going to bat for me. Long story short, Canada protects their milk production with tariffs and producton quotas. The processor I currently sell my own milk to had found a loophole and now the Canadians have moved to close that loophole (or make it less desirable to buy said product from the US).

My current milk processor let 75 farms know on April 1st that they would no longer be purchasing their milk on May 1st. Right now it is next to impossible to find a new home for milk so many of these farms will go out of business.

I may be next. I'm hearing rumors that my processor is going to cut more farms, and I have a sneaking suspicion that my farm may be among the next cuts which would be all the more brutal for me as I could be left standing in this game of musical chairs. If this happens, it will be the end of my farming career.

[Groundhog]

Trump's gonna put a man on Mars this term. Good for him.

[PilotMan]

I think that removing the pre-tax benefit for retirement is one of the most short sighted things that congress has ever considered. I mean, it's meant as a cash pull to cover for a budget short fall and it will succeed in that, but it's most harmful directly to the middle class, once again, and directly impacts how people behave in regard to saving for retirement.

It wouldn't be so bad if SS was solvent and running like a top, but they've stolen from that well too. As people shift to Roth401k's that money will start to dwindle too, then they'll come for your Roth.

The government already allowed companies to eject pensions and screw people, now essentially getting rid of 401k pretax breaks for saving is just de-incentivizing savings all that much more.

[Edward64]

Didn't know about the 401k so googled on it and the only article I found was

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...eak/100837046/

I suspect this is a non-starter. Too much political backlash, probably easier finding money somewhere else.

[PilotMan]

The wsj had a blog post about it the other day too that went into greater detail. From the sounds of it, it's something that is strongly being considered. The article is behind the paywall for anyone who has that sub, here's the link.

https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017...from-congress/

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think that removing the pre-tax benefit for retirement is one of the most short sighted things that congress has ever considered. I mean, it's meant as a cash pull to cover for a budget short fall and it will succeed in that, but it's most harmful directly to the middle class, once again, and directly impacts how people behave in regard to saving for retirement.

It wouldn't be so bad if SS was solvent and running like a top, but they've stolen from that well too. As people shift to Roth401k's that money will start to dwindle too, then they'll come for your Roth.

The government already allowed companies to eject pensions and screw people, now essentially getting rid of 401k pretax breaks for saving is just de-incentivizing savings all that much more.

Corporate tax breaks at the expense of the middle class. Make America great again. Brilliant.

[digamma]

Under the Trump plan as being leaked, why wouldn't we all form LLCs and insist on being independent contractors?

[Easy Mac]

Trumps always been a trickle down fan.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Corporate tax breaks at the expense of the middle class. Make America great again. Brilliant.

If they are actually going to do that, they might as well go ahead and just do a total re-do of the tax code. Having to pay taxes on gains on income you put into a 401(k)... you should be able to withdraw money from the 401(k) to make those payments. If you do that, then you should just be able to treat it like any other taxable investment account and withdraw at will. If you do that, people will start withdrawing money left and right from these accounts. If you do that, we will have a major retirement income problem in another 10-20 years that could create a whole new underclass of elderly.

Sounds great.