The Trump Presidency – 2016

[tarcone]

I think the action we will take against NK is China cutting off resources. That happens and NK folds like a broken lawn chair.

[Edward64]

China probably won't do that to the extent or in the timeframe that we would want.

If Trump was able to negotiate something like that with China, his stock rises with me quite a bit.

[bob]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I think the action we will take against NK is China cutting off resources. That happens and NK folds like a broken lawn chair.

Wouldn't he view that as much of an act of war as literally shooting at them and act out as well?

[NobodyHere]

I'd like to think that Kim knows that if he shoots at us then he is done for, so he's not going to take any action to hasten that end.

[bhlloy]

If China cuts off aid and resources he's just as done for, although possibly over a longer time period. We're also not talking about a rational person here to begin with.

[tarcone]

We drop a MOAB on the presidential palace, NK becomes a headless snake.

I think NK would capitulate to China. If Kim wants to stay in power, he needs China.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I think the action we will take against NK is China cutting off resources. That happens and NK folds like a broken lawn chair.

What does China get for a humanitarian crisis on its border and a possible war and nuclear fallout on the Korean peninsula?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What does China get for a humanitarian crisis on its border and a possible war and nuclear fallout on the Korean peninsula?

A slightly better trade deal with the US that they totally wouldn't be able to get otherwise because they're dealing with a Master Negotiator in Trump.

[tarcone]

Wasnt the term money manipulator? Or currency manipulator?

Notice how we backed off that statement? Stuff is happening between China and the US. Things your guy couldnt ever have hoped to do.

If Trump pulls China in, that goes along way to easing world tensions.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Wasnt the term money manipulator? Or currency manipulator?

Notice how we backed off that statement? Stuff is happening between China and the US. Things your guy couldnt ever have hoped to do.

If Trump pulls China in, that goes along way to easing world tensions.

I love everything about this post.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Wasnt the term money manipulator? Or currency manipulator?

Notice how we backed off that statement? Stuff is happening between China and the US. Things your guy couldnt ever have hoped to do.

If Trump pulls China in, that goes along way to easing world tensions.

It was currency manipulator which is what Trump campaigned on. He promised to have them labeled as such because they're conducting the biggest theft against the U.S. In history (his words).

After one conversation with the Chinese president he's backed off that statement. Yet another campaign promise he's failed on.

[tarcone]

The art of the deal

[Edward64]

It's not all bad. I'm actually glad he's "flexible" and backing away from some of his campaign rhetoric re: foreign policy.

He's pivoted away from Russia. Seems to be building some sort of relationship with China. Bombing ISIS in Afghanistan and continuing Obama's successful fight to retake Mosul (which he'll probably take credit for). Sticking with NATO.

I wonder what majority of supporters think. I suspect other than for the hardcore, they are okay with it as they believe in the man and probably never believed in (or understood) what his policies were.

[tarcone]

I like how he is showing off our military. We can hit you surgically from hundreds of miles away or just drop one big bomb on you from above.

But I am getting a little nervous. Im hoping these anti-USA states dont get to frisky and try to strike before they are struck.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It's not all bad. I'm actually glad he's "flexible" and backing away from some of his campaign rhetoric re: foreign policy.

He's pivoted away from Russia. Seems to be building some sort of relationship with China. Bombing ISIS in Afghanistan and continuing Obama's successful fight to retake Mosul (which he'll probably take credit for). Sticking with NATO.

I wonder what majority of supporters think. I suspect other than for the hardcore, they are okay with it as they believe in the man and probably never believed in (or understood) what his policies were.

It just seems that he's easily influenced. He was all about healthcare for everyone and reducing prescription costs until he talked to representatives from the healthcare industry. He flipped on one China after a conversation. He's flipped on China as a currency manipulator after a meeting with their president. He flipped on Israel. I'm sure there are many other things I'm just not remembering at the moment too.

If it's really flexibility then great, it's a good thing and largely discouraged in politics. However, how quickly and how often he flips on issues makes it appear like he can be manipulated quite easily.

[whomario]

NK is just a shitty situation but there is very close to zero reason to believe they are doing anything based on offensive-minded plans. There's just no upside here for them. Kim wants to stay in power, for which the only deterrent is posessing nuclear capabilities. He also wants to gain back some semblance of an economy, for which he needs the US, China and Europe all to loosen the screws. The only chance to do that (aside from stepping down of course) is gaining leverage due to nuclear weapons in their eyes ...
Looking at this on the basis "hey look, a cooky and insane dictator doing insane stuff" does this whole issue a juge disservice. The guy is smart, ruthless and calculating. Not frothing at the mouth and manically laughing his days away in a dark cellar.

Just a shitty and scary situation.

I also am scared shitless by the cavalier reactions/behaviour of people in immense power to the recent actions. Can you be of the opinion that an agressive policy is warranted ? Sure. But please do not treat it as a game, please. Especially when, all things considered, you are still much more protected from retaliation than a myriad of allies by the mere fact of remoteness.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by whomario

NK is just a shitty situation but there is very close to zero reason to believe they are doing anything based on offensive-minded plans. There's just no upside here for them. Kim wants to stay in power, for which the only deterrent is posessing nuclear capabilities. He also wants to gain back some semblance of an economy, for which he needs the US, China and Europe all to loosen the screws. The only chance to do that (aside from stepping down of course) is gaining leverage due to nuclear weapons in their eyes ...

I think when you are the ultimate leader and come from a line of ultimate leaders, and you have a nationwide cult of personality ... normal ways of thinking cost/benefit don't apply.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by whomario

Looking at this on the basis "hey look, a cooky and insane dictator doing insane stuff" does this whole issue a juge disservice. The guy is smart, ruthless and calculating. Not frothing at the mouth and manically laughing his days away in a dark cellar.

I think you give him too much credit.

Look at the absolutely absurd cult of personality built around him and his family. This is a kid who grew up basically being the heir to divinity. The propaganda surrounding his father and grandfather really has no better description - they set themselves up as gods. There's no way he hasn't bought into his own press at least a little bit. I can't believe growing up like that doesn't fuck you up in the head.

Is he a mustache twirling villain laughing maniacally? Probably not. Is he as cold, calculating and, most importantly, as balanced as you're saying? I honestly don't think so.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think when you are the ultimate leader and come from a line of ultimate leaders, and you have a nationwide cult of personality ... normal ways of thinking cost/benefit don't apply.

I'm also not entirely convinced he's bothered about the economy either.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I think you give him too much credit.

Look at the absolutely absurd cult of personality built around him and his family. This is a kid who grew up basically being the heir to divinity. The propaganda surrounding his father and grandfather really has no better description - they set themselves up as gods. There's no way he hasn't bought into his own press at least a little bit. I can't believe growing up like that doesn't fuck you up in the head.

Is he a mustache twirling villain laughing maniacally? Probably not. Is he as cold, calculating and, most importantly, as balanced as you're saying? I honestly don't think so.

I thought this was about Trumps at first

[Edward64]

Watching some pictures of the military parade, I was thinking it would be kinda funny (and then immediately serious right after) if a cruise missile hit that crazy kid right there.

[Thomkal]

North Korea has had a missile test launch that apparently failed. Details still coming in

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

North Korea has had a missile test launch that apparently failed. Details still coming in

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by cartman

I was referencing all of the artillery NK has trained on Seoul.

So do we believe that "trained on Seoul" means that it'd actually hit Seoul?

[bronconick]

Well, the Paris Gun had a range of 80 miles, so I assume that North Korea could manage to use 100 year old technology with some efficiency.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Well, the Paris Gun had a range of 80 miles, so I assume that North Korea could manage to use 100 year old technology with some efficiency.

Isnt NK about 150 years behind the times? Or is that just infrastructure?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I think you give him too much credit.

Look at the absolutely absurd cult of personality built around him and his family. This is a kid who grew up basically being the heir to divinity. The propaganda surrounding his father and grandfather really has no better description - they set themselves up as gods. There's no way he hasn't bought into his own press at least a little bit. I can't believe growing up like that doesn't fuck you up in the head.

Is he a mustache twirling villain laughing maniacally? Probably not. Is he as cold, calculating and, most importantly, as balanced as you're saying? I honestly don't think so.

.

Thing is that the vast majority of what you read about him and the situation coming out of Asia suggests it's closer to this than the weird picture painted in the US. Probably somewhere in between, but personally i would rather have my politicians overestimate a guy like that than buy into the picture of a lunatic unable to have a rational thought

There is also a strong likelyhood that he went to school in Switzerland age 8 to 16.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Isnt NK about 150 years behind the times? Or is that just infrastructure?

Mostly infrastructure though the military isn't up to date either. They would still overrun South Korea and our military there in a matter days. Once South Korea is taken it doesn't matter how far behind they are from a technological standpoint. It would be near impossible to break their position without flattening the entire peninsula.

[thesloppy]

Although NK has a massive paramilitary force that they're happy to parade around, they're also kind of unique in that despite their contentious relationship with the rest of the world they've never been in even the slightest kind of action or conflict, for the last 50 years, right?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Mostly infrastructure though the military isn't up to date either. They would still overrun South Korea and our military there in a matter days. Once South Korea is taken it doesn't matter how far behind they are from a technological standpoint. It would be near impossible to break their position without flattening the entire peninsula.

On what do you base that?

I did a quick and dirty research and what I found confirmed what I suspected. The Republic of Korea has twice as many active and reserve military as North Korea, and spends three times as much on their defense than North Korea does. That does not include any direct support fron the United States, which of course also includes a large supporting force and massive naval and air support. The Republic of Korea also has top notch military systems provided and maintained by both American and European allies. They have a massive military advantage over North Korea.

I think your statement that North Korea would "overrun South Korea and our military there in a matter of days" might need some more backing from you.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

On what do you base that?

I did a quick and dirty research and what I found confirmed what I suspected. The Republic of Korea has twice as many active and reserve military as North Korea, and spends three times as much on their defense than North Korea does. That does not include any direct support fron the United States, which of course also includes a large supporting force and massive naval and air support. The Republic of Korea also has top notch military systems provided and maintained by both American and European allies. They have a massive military advantage over North Korea.

I think your statement that North Korea would "overrun South Korea and our military there in a matter of days" might need some more backing from you.

The source would be based off my wife's training while stationed in Seoul. The estimates are 2.5 minutes to cripple our military and the infrastructure in the Seoul area inthe event of a surprise attack.

The training there is we're a deterant to prevent a surprise attack, but our forces on the ground there would be little more than a speed bump until the navy could respond.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The source would be based off my wife's training while stationed in Seoul. The estimates are 2.5 minutes to cripple our military and the infrastructure in the Seoul area inthe event of a surprise attack.

The training there is we're a deterant to prevent a surprise attack, but our forces on the ground there would be little more than a speed bump until the navy could respond.

But our navy is currently sitting about 500 miles off the coast of Korea. When was your wife stationed there?

[Chief Rum]

Additionally, I am pretty sure once South Korea realizes what is happening, they will very significantly respond. It's their homeland and that border is possibly the most surveilled in the world.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

The art of the deal

Sit for 5 minutes with the guy and get whatever you want.

[RainMaker]

Funny thing about the China currency manipulating is they haven't been doing it for years. Whoever was feeding him that line during the campaign wasn't up to date on global finance. Still funny to see yet another change and another campaign promise scrapped.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Sit for 5 minutes with the guy and get whatever you want.

It seems that Trump gets painted with a black or white stroke no matter what he does.
I think there has to be a grey area which profits us.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

It seems that Trump gets painted with a black or white stroke no matter what he does.
I think there has to be a grey area which profits us.

Just saying there have been a bunch of situations where he sat down with someone for a bit and completely changed his stance on an issue.

Trump had a good idea on drug costs. He ditched it after meeting with pharma execs. - Chicago Tribune

[digamma]

Originally Posted by tarcone

It seems that Trump gets painted with a black or white stroke no matter what he does.
I think there has to be a grey area which profits him.

FTFY

[Galaril]

Take this as you will but I was a former Air Force officer that first served 3 years in South Korea in the late 90s early 200s. I was at Osan Air Base for 2 years which is 33 miles from NK and a 3rd year at Kunsan AB about 55 miles from NK. I regularly flew the vicinity of the DMZ . Once I separated from the AF I spent another 8 years living in South Korea working for a three letter US gov agency. I obvious can't go into much detail here but the North Korea military is hardly a paramilitary force. They are hardened from our intell by military exercises that would shame even the ancient Spartans. They have close to 10,000 pieces of artilllery at the border that can reach our primary air base and Seoul. Once they attcked these targets would be hit similarly to what we did to Baghdad during Desert Storm. They have been planning for decades the infiltration for their special forces to the South via gliders that we would have a hard time detecting. This is without any consideration to their tactical nuclear arsenal.

I also have family via my ex wife's side who are Korea and server in the military. I would bet money that in a straight fight between North and South Korea despite the Norths stronger weaponry from us the sheer numbers of the North 2 to 1 would defeat the mostly conscript 2-3 year service military if SK.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, thanks Galaril and Atocep.

So what I am curious about, then, if the NK have such military advantages and both sides know it, why don't they attack and occupy SK? It can't be for fear of us. They're testing nuke missiles in blatant defiance of UN and US sanctions. Their leader is likely to be insane.

Why have they not attacked?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by digamma

FTFY

That, only that is his concern.

[JPhillips]

The US and SK would defeat the NK fairly quickly, but the first few days would be a bloodbath for SK citizens. NK would certainly lose a war, but they would inflict a huge amount of damage in the process.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The US and SK would defeat the NK fairly quickly, but the first few days would be a bloodbath for SK citizens. NK would certainly lose a war, but they would inflict a huge amount of damage in the process.

I am not sure it would be quick unless we started it by taking out all their airfields and most of their inplace artillery at the border and at least attempting to get to their underground nuke installation's. They have 5000 tanks compared to the US 50 and South Koreas 2300. Theirs are not as modern as ours but they could quickly overrun the South and envelop Seoul and push to at least Pyongtaek and likely much further.

[JPhillips]

The piece that I read gave the upper hand to NK for up to four days. At that point we'd have total air superiority and they wouldn't be able to move without catastrophic damage to their armor and artillery. Even if that's a few days off, the basic idea is the same, something similar, but not reaching as far south as 1950.

[larrymcg421]

I really feel like Ossoff has very little chance of winning the GA-6 race. Right now the polls look like he will miss the 50% mark to avoid a runoff. I think he has almost no chance to win a runoff, since any undecideds will almost certainly break GOP.

What's frustrating is I think the Dems have mismanaged the expectations game here. This will be much harder to spin as a good result if Ossoff loses the runoff by like 5 points (eventhough it's be a 17 point swing from Nov) than the KS-04 race was.

So many Dems are actually expecting an Ossoff victory. I've had friends who excitedly tell me how they heard Ossoff is in the lead. His "lead" is meaningless right now. He's losing by however many points he's lower than 50%. I wish more people understood that, but I fear there will be lots of upset people shocked when Ossoff loses the runoff.

[miked]

If Karen Handel wins, I have no idea what will happen. She is terrible and generally unliked.

[Atocep]

And Trump called Erdogan to congratulate him on passing the referendum that killed what's left of democracy in Turkey.

I'm sure there's some amazing long game play here that we just don't understand.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Atocep

And Trump called Erdogan to congratulate him on passing the referendum that killed what's left of democracy in Turkey.

I'm sure there's some amazing long game play here that we just don't understand.

Probably just continuing America's policy of being kind to friendly dictators.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I really feel like Ossoff has very little chance of winning the GA-6 race. Right now the polls look like he will miss the 50% mark to avoid a runoff. I think he has almost no chance to win a runoff, since any undecideds will almost certainly break GOP.

What's frustrating is I think the Dems have mismanaged the expectations game here. This will be much harder to spin as a good result if Ossoff loses the runoff by like 5 points (eventhough it's be a 17 point swing from Nov) than the KS-04 race was.

So many Dems are actually expecting an Ossoff victory. I've had friends who excitedly tell me how they heard Ossoff is in the lead. His "lead" is meaningless right now. He's losing by however many points he's lower than 50%. I wish more people understood that, but I fear there will be lots of upset people shocked when Ossoff loses the runoff.

I am not sure I agree about the run off. What you say is certainly the conventional wisdom, but run offs become almost solely a turnout contest. Ossoff will have a tremendous cash advantage and he's built a pretty respectable and motivated base. He may be able to get them to show up twice--I just don't remember a cash mismatch like this.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Isnt NK about 150 years behind the times? Or is that just infrastructure?

This is partly true but invading North Korea is likely going to be long, slow, and costly. While there are few, if any, reasons to expect a North Korean victory over the South, the converse is equally unlikely. Any invasion of North Korea would be slow and costly, offering both sides many opportunities to either “pause” and de-escalate conflict, or escalate to total devastation. First, invading North Korea guarantees the mass artillery shelling of Seoul, South Korea’s capital, and North Korea’s use of “battlefield” chemical weapons at scale. If the alliance is invading, there’s no reason for North Korea to refrain from taking these actions. Second, moving large numbers of troops into North Korea requires not only facing down an adversary with home field advantage, but a topography that’s entirely inhospitable to outside invasion—highly mountainous, lots of underground facilities and tunnels, and with very little infrastructure such as roads and bridges to exploit. Third, because North Korea’s local advantages would dramatically slow the progress of a northward march, North Korea would have plenty of time to confirm that its regime is facing extinction, which increases incentives to launch nuclear strikes.